Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2015: The Dilemma of Leaving: Political and Military Exit Strategies

319 Pages·2016·2.19 MB·English

by  Jörg Noll

NL ARMS
Netherlands
Annual Review
of Military
Studies 2015
The Dilemma of Leaving:
Political and Military Exit Strategies
Jörg Noll · Daan van den Wollenberg
Frans Osinga · Georg Frerks
Irene van Kemenade Editors
NL ARMS
Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies
Editor-in-Chief
P. Oonincx, Den Helder, The Netherlands
Managing Editor
I. van Kemenade, Breda, The Netherlands
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13908
Series Information
The series aims to create an overview of scientific research in military
sciences and it shows the extent to which researchers of the Faculty of Military
Sciences (FMS) of the Netherlands Defence Academy contribute to this field
of expertise.
Research at the Faculty is confined to military-relevant, multidisciplinary
areas and therefore deals with issues relating, among others, to:
– Command and control in military operations
– Leadership and ethics
– Military law and history
– Operational analysis
– Navigation
– Combat systems
– Military platforms
– Cyber warfare
The series is peer reviewed and reflects the diversity and quality of the Faculty
of Military Sciences at its best. With the NL ARMS the FMS hopes to serve
as a trigger for more international comparative research on military sciences.
Editorial Office
Drs. I. van Kemenade
Faculty of Military Sciences
P.O. Box 90002
4800 PA, Breda
The Netherlands
Jörg Noll · Daan van den Wollenberg
Frans Osinga · Georg Frerks
Irene van Kemenade
Editors
Netherlands Annual Review
of Military Studies 2015
The Dilemma of Leaving:
Political and Military Exit Strategies
1 3
Editors
Jörg Noll Georg Frerks
Faculty of Military Sciences Faculty of Military Sciences
Netherlands Defence Academy Netherlands Defence Academy
Breda Breda
The Netherlands The Netherlands
Daan van den Wollenberg Irene van Kemenade
Ministry of Defence Faculty of Military Sciences
The Hague Netherlands Defence Academy
The Netherlands Breda
The Netherlands
Frans Osinga
Faculty of Military Sciences
Netherlands Defence Academy
Breda
The Netherlands
ISSN 1387-8050
NL ARMS
ISBN 978-94-6265-077-0 ISBN 978-94-6265-078-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-6265-078-7
Published by t.m.c. asser press, The Hague, The Netherlands www.asserpress.nl
Produced and distributed for t.m.c. asser press by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
© t.m.c. asser press and the authors 2016
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Foreword
How deep can you go into the woods, asked the instructor? I had no idea
what he was talking about. I knew the woods were big, but how big –
I had no idea. “2-3 kilometers maybe” was my hesitant answer. No, you
can walk until the middle of the forest and then you start walking out of
the forest again! Trying to regain my composure, I decided to counter that
trick statement with a question: “Ok, but how do I know, when I have
reached the middle of the woods”, I asked. “ You don’t” – was the answer
from the instructor. “However, if you know your woods and your way
in, you will also know, when you are leaving the woods and also in what
direction you should leave the woods”.
Th e same fussiness applies to the concept of exit strategy for international
confl icts and military interventions. Th e beginning of any military
operation of a western nation is preceded by a political decision to partake
and a military operational planning phase. Th e beginning is therefore well
defi ned. Th e exit process and the obtainable end state of the confl ict on the
other hand are much more complex. Many factors infl uence the question
when it is warranted to terminate an intervention and how to execute
the redeployment best. Much depends on whether realistic objectives and
desired end states have been formulated but even more on the dynamics
of the confl ict itself. Invariably initial assumptions have been invalidated
once an intervention got under way and exit has subsequently proven a
thorny military and political issue.
Since this is a rather new fi eld, very little standard literature is available.
Indeed, the very defi nition of exit strategies and end states is a topic of
discussion in this volume. In the present book various researchers from
the Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy
present a multi-disciplinary approach to the broad theme of exit strategies
and end states of military interventions. Hopefully, this work will inspire
others to contribute to this important fi eld.
Th is book is part of the so-called Netherlands Annual Review of Military
Studies (NL-ARMS) series of books. Every year the Faculty of Military
Sciences (FMS) publishes a NL-ARMS issue around a military relevant
theme. Each volume refl ects the diversity and quality of the research
vi foreword
fi elds present within the faculty. I hope you will enjoy the contributions
and I am confi dent the authors are more than happy to give you further
information. So, please do not hesitate to contact the researchers directly.
Prof. dr. H. Rudolph
Dean of the Faculty of Military Sciences
Netherlands Defence Academy
Th e Netherlands Ministry of Defence
[email protected]
Table of Contents
Foreword v
Henrik Rudolph, Dean of the Faculty of Military Sciences
1. Introduction. Th e Dilemma of Leaving: Political and Military
Exit Strategies 1
Jörg Noll, Daan van den Wollenberg & Georg Frerks
2. Th e Paradox of Leaving: Four Historical Case Studies on the
Dynamics of Exit Strategies 19
Herman Amersfoort, Floribert Baudet, Henk de Jong,
Michiel de Jong & Wim Klinkert

3. Strategic Narratives, Political Debates and Causes of the
Dutch Exit from Uruzgan 61
Th eo Brinkel

4. ‘Right Intent’: Th e Moral Dimension of Exit 83
Desiree Verweij

5. Hitting a Moving Target: Evaluating the ‘Exit’ from State-
building Missions 103
Georg Frerks
6. Dynamics of the Political 2-Level-Game in War Termination 141
Daan van den Wollenberg
7. Getting Away with Exit: Th e Role of Strategic Communication 161
Han Bouwmeester

8. From Entrapment to Indiff erence? 193
Floribert Baudet
9. Two Ways of Leaving: A Comparative Case Study on Exit
Strategies of a UN and a NATO Led Mission 217
Sander Dalenberg & Marenne Mei Jansen
viii table of contents
10. Th e Comprehensive Approach and the Problem of Exiting
Civil Military Cooperation: Lessons from Uruzgan 247
Peter Olsthoorn, Myriame Bollen, Ernst Lobbezoo
& Bas Rietjens
11. Ex©iting Dilemma: A Defence Economics View on a US Exit
from NATO 271
Robert Beeres & Myriame Bollen
12. Conclusion: Pitfalls and Potentials of Exit Studies and
Practices 299
Georg Frerks
Contributors 317
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one
Introduction. Th e Dilemma of Leaving: Political
and Military Exit Strategies
Jörg Noll, Daan van den Wollenberg & Georg Frerks
Abstract
Th e introduction to the volume provides an overview of recent issues central to
political, military, and academic debates about political and military exit strate-
gies from confl icts and wars. One important concept is the supposed political-
military divide, time and again expressed in the dichotomy end states versus
end dates. Th e diff erent contributions of the volume show that there exist nu-
ances in this divide, due to diff erent responsibilities and tasks at four levels, i.e.,
the political, strategic, operational and tactical. Th e volume refl ects the diversity
and multi-disciplinary character of the Faculty of Military Sciences, combining
academia with military experience.
Keywords
Exit strategy, end state, end date, political-military relations, transformation and
transition
Dr. Jörg E. Noll is associate professor of International Confl ictstudies at the Faculty of
Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy. Field of expertise: Exit strategies
and political and military leaders and decision making. First Lieutenant drs. Daan van
den Wollenberg is currently the commander of a mechanized artillery platoon. Prof. dr.
ir. Georg Frerks is professor of International Security Studies at the Faculty of Military
Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy. Th e authors would like to thank Wouter
Hagemeijer for his contribution on doctrines.
J. Noll 
Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy
De la Reijweg 120, 4820 BB Breda, Th e Netherlands
E-mail: [email protected]
D. van den Wollenberg
E-mail: [email protected]
G. Frerks
Faculty of Military Sciences of the Netherlands Defence Academy, Breda, Th e Nether-
lands
E-mail: [email protected]
(cid:2)T.M.C.ASSERPRESSandtheauthors2016 1
J.Nolletal.(eds.),NetherlandsAnnualReviewofMilitaryStudies2015,
NLARMS,DOI10.1007/978-94-6265-078-7_1