Natural Hazards Analysis: Reducing the Impact of Disasters

314 Pages·2008·6.49 MB·English

by  John Pine

Natural Hazards
Analysis
Reducing the Impact of Disasters

Natural Hazards
Analysis
Reducing the Impact of Disasters
John C. Pine
Auerbach Publications
Taylor & Francis Group
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Pine, John C., 1946-
Natural hazards analysis : reducing the impact of disasters / John Pine.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-4200-7038-5
1. Disasters--Social aspects. 2. Emergency management. 3. Preparedness. 4.
Community organization. 5. Disasters—Risk assessment. 6. Risk management. I.
Title.
HV553.P528 2008
363.34’7--dc22 2008023245
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Contents
Preface ...........................................................................................................xv
Acknowledgments .......................................................................................xvii
1 Introduction to Hazards Analysis ..........................................................1
Objectives ....................................................................................................1
Key Terms....................................................................................................1
Issue .............................................................................................................2
Introduction ................................................................................................2
Terminology of Hazards ..............................................................................2
Views of Extreme Natural Events as Primary Causes of Disasters ................6
A Changing Hazard Paradigm .....................................................................7
Hazards Analysis .........................................................................................9
Hazard Identification ........................................................................10
Vulnerability Analysis .......................................................................10
Risk Analysis ....................................................................................11
Linking Hazards Analysis to Risk and Comprehensive
Emergency Management ..................................................................12
Communicating Risk from a Hazards Analysis ................................15
Community Involvement in Hazards Analysis .................................17
Values in Community Engagement ..................................................18
Human Social and Cultural Heritage Elements .......................18
Protective Actions ....................................................................18
Constructed and Physical Environment...................................18
Conclusion .................................................................................................19
Discussion Questions .................................................................................22
Applications ...............................................................................................23
Web Sites ...................................................................................................23
References ..................................................................................................24
2 Hazard Identification ...........................................................................29
Objectives ..................................................................................................29
v
vi  Contents
Key Terms..................................................................................................29
Issue ...........................................................................................................30
Introduction ..............................................................................................30
Hazard Identification Process ....................................................................31
Organizing a Hazard Identification Team ........................................33
Creating a Community Profile ...................................................................33
Social, Physical, and Environmental Assets ......................................34
Environmental or Natural Assets ......................................................35
Social Environment ..........................................................................37
Built Environment ............................................................................37
Infrastructure ..........................................................................38
Critical Facilities ......................................................................38
Economic Activities .................................................................38
Mapping Community Assets and Hazards ................................................39
Interdependence of Communities ..............................................................41
Identifying Community Problems ............................................................42
Problem-Solving Process ...................................................................43
Problem Solving in an Ill-Structured Environment .........................46
Decision Traps ..................................................................................47
Conclusions ...............................................................................................47
Discussion Questions .................................................................................48
Applications ...............................................................................................48
Hazard Web Sites.......................................................................................49
Maps ..........................................................................................................49
References ..................................................................................................49
3 Modeling Natural Environmental Hazards .........................................51
Objectives ..................................................................................................51
Key Terms..................................................................................................51
Issue ...........................................................................................................52
Introduction ..............................................................................................52
The Role of Hazard Modeling in Hazards Analysis ..........................52
Linking GIS and Environmental Models ..........................................55
Nature and Types of Models ......................................................................57
Dynamic ...........................................................................................57
Combination ....................................................................................57
Deterministic ....................................................................................58
Probabilistic ......................................................................................58
Hazard Models ..........................................................................................59
HAZUS-MH Model ........................................................................59
HAZUS-MH Analysis ............................................................61
Case Study: Data Sources for Flood Modeling ........................62
Assessing Hazard Models ...........................................................................65
Contents  vii
Quality .............................................................................................65
Timeliness ........................................................................................68
Completeness ....................................................................................69
Data Accuracy, Resolution, and Availability .....................................70
Advantages and Disadvantages of Hazard Models .....................................71
Hazard Profiles ..........................................................................................73
Type of Hazard .................................................................................74
Sources of Hazard Information .........................................................74
Frequency of Occurrence ..................................................................75
Magnitude ........................................................................................76
Location and Spatial Extent ..............................................................76
Duration ...........................................................................................76
Seasonal Pattern ................................................................................76
Speed of Onset ................................................................................77
Availability of Warnings ..................................................................77
Hazard Profile Sample for a Tornado ................................................78
Description of Hazard .............................................................78
Potential Magnitude ................................................................78
Frequency of Occurrence .........................................................78
Seasonal Pattern ......................................................................78
Probable Duration ...................................................................78
Potential Speed of Onset .........................................................79
Identify Existing Warning Mechanisms ..................................79
Identify Location and Spatial Extent of Potential Event ..........79
Conclusions ...............................................................................................79
Discussion Questions .................................................................................80
Applications ...............................................................................................80
Web Sites ...................................................................................................81
Avalanches ........................................................................................81
Coastal Storms .................................................................................81
Dam Safety .......................................................................................82
Drought ............................................................................................82
Earthquakes ......................................................................................82
Flooding ...........................................................................................82
Heat ..................................................................................................83
Landslides .........................................................................................83
Lightning ..........................................................................................83
Snowstorms ......................................................................................83
Tornadoes .........................................................................................83
Tsunamis .........................................................................................84
Wildfires ..........................................................................................84
References ..................................................................................................85
viii  Contents
4 Spatial Analysis ....................................................................................87
Objectives ..................................................................................................87
Key Terms..................................................................................................87
Issue ...........................................................................................................88
Introduction ..............................................................................................88
Definition of Spatial Analysis ....................................................................88
Geospatial Data Set ...................................................................................89
Spatial Data Quality ..................................................................................92
Types of Spatial Analysis ............................................................................95
Queries .............................................................................................95
Measurements ...................................................................................96
Transformations ...............................................................................97
Buffering...........................................................................................98
Descriptive Summaries .....................................................................99
Optimization Techniques .................................................................99
Hypothesis Testing ...........................................................................99
Spatial Data Visualization ........................................................................100
Choropleth Maps .....................................................................................102
Conclusions .............................................................................................104
Discussion Questions ...............................................................................105
Applications .............................................................................................105
Web Sites .................................................................................................105
References ................................................................................................106
5 Risk Analysis: Assessing the Risks of Natural Hazards .....................107
Objectives ................................................................................................107
Key Terms................................................................................................107
Introduction ............................................................................................108
The Process of Risk Analysis ....................................................................108
What Is Risk? ..........................................................................................109
Quantitative Analysis of Risk .........................................................110
Qualitative Representation of Consequence ....................................111
Views of Risk ..................................................................................111
Using Historical Data in Determining Risk ............................................114
The Need for Complete Accurate Data for Decision Making .........115
Using Technical Data in Decision Making .....................................116
Indicators of Direct and Indirect Losses .........................................117
Issues in Risk Analysis .............................................................................119
Changes in Disaster Frequency .......................................................119
Availability of Essential Data ..........................................................119
Depth of Analysis ...........................................................................121
Dealing with Uncertainty ........................................................................123
Relative Ranking of Risks ...............................................................123
Contents  ix
Priority Rating ................................................................................126
Acceptable Risk .......................................................................................127
Risk Benefits ...................................................................................127
Determining Risk Acceptability .....................................................128
Personal .................................................................................128
Political/Social .......................................................................128
Economic ..............................................................................129
Risk Strategies .........................................................................................129
Accept the Risk ...............................................................................129
Extremely Low Likelihood of Risk .................................................129
Mandatory Risk Level ....................................................................130
Discussion Questions ...............................................................................130
Applications .............................................................................................131
Web Sites .................................................................................................131
References ................................................................................................131
6 Social, Economic, and Ecological Vulnerability ................................135
Objectives ................................................................................................135
Key Terms................................................................................................135
Introduction ............................................................................................136
Approaches to Vulnerability .....................................................................136
Dimensions of Vulnerability ....................................................................139
Social and Human Vulnerability ....................................................140
Economic Vulnerability ..................................................................141
Environmental Vulnerability ..........................................................142
Measuring Vulnerability ..........................................................................144
Indicators of Social Conditions .......................................................144
Indicators of Economic Conditions ................................................147
Indicators of Environmental Conditions .........................................148
Methodological Issues ..............................................................................150
Weighting, Data Availability, and Accuracy ...................................151
Multiyear Analysis ..........................................................................152
Interdependence of Social, Economic, and Ecological Capital .................153
Discussion Questions ...............................................................................154
Applications .............................................................................................154
Web Sites .................................................................................................154
References ................................................................................................155
7 Risk Communication .........................................................................159
Objectives ................................................................................................159
Key Terms................................................................................................159
Issue .........................................................................................................160
Introduction ............................................................................................160