Table Of ContentSPRINGER BRIEFS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
Sergio O. Saldaña Zorrilla
Natural Disasters,
Foreign Trade and
Agriculture in
Mexico
Public Policy for
Reducing Economic
Vulnerability
123
SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science
More information about this series at h ttp://www.springer.com/series/8868
Sergio O. Saldaña-Zorrilla
Natural Disasters, Foreign
Trade and Agriculture
in Mexico
Public Policy for Reducing
Economic Vulnerability
Sergio O. Saldaña-Zorrilla
Research Scholar
Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Laxenburg , Austria
ISSN 2191-5547 ISSN 2191-5555 (electronic)
SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science
ISBN 978-3-319-17358-0 ISBN 978-3-319-17359-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-17359-7
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Abstract
The increasing frequency and economic losses from natural disasters within the
framework of decreasing agricultural prices and trade liberalization is becoming
crucial in increasing poverty in the Mexican rural economy. During the past two
decades, the governmental withdrawal from supporting the agricultural sector with
investments in physical, fi nancial and logistic instruments continues to stress agri-
cultural livelihoods, as current private mechanisms have not replaced them effec-
tively. It has contributed to making the agricultural sector particularly vulnerable to
a number of hazards as it has weakened economic agents’ response and impeded
assets accumulation. This book identifi es economic vulnerability to natural and eco-
nomic hazards in order to assess public and private coping capacity, and provides a
conceptual framework and economic theory that supports the overall approach and
employed methodologies. It is based on quantitative and qualitative research meth-
ods, and makes use of econometric analysis and stakeholders’ views aimed at fi nd-
ing feasible solutions. Further, this book offers a spatial model that can support
policy-decision-making for the creation of differential investments in productive
infrastructure, as well as fi nancial instruments to reduce current vulnerability and
poverty throughout the national territory.
D uring the past three decades, over 80% of total economic losses from weather-
related disasters occurred in the agricultural sector. In the same period, mean
weighted agricultural prices have decreased over 50% in real terms, and since 1996
a trade defi cit has persisted in this sector. Currently, insuffi cient credit access, low
coverage of crop insurance, as well as a near lack of investments to expand irriga-
tion and further productive infrastructure, is sharpening the vulnerability of rural
livelihoods. These facts explain why this sector produces only 4% of the GDP
despite employing over 20% of the national workforce. These facts undermine
farmers’ expectations of future incomes within the community, stimulating rural-
urban out migration, which usually cannot be absorbed by the urban economy in
light of the modest industrial dynamism of recent years. This leads to enlargement
of informal sectors in large cities and migratory fl ows to abroad, among others.
v
Acknowledgments
The author wishes to thank the following persons and institutions for contributing to
the success of this book. Above all, special thanks to Dr. Joanne Linerooth-Bayer,
Program Leader of the R isk and Vulnerability Program at the International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), who continually supported this work.
Valuable criticism and suggestions from the following people have been decisive in
writing this book: Dr. Reinhard Mechler, Dr. Uwe Schubert, Dr. Krister Sandberg,
Dr. Neal Leary, Dr. Larry Willmore and Dr. Jose M. Albala-Bertrand.
Particularly valuable was the encouragement obtained from the W orld Bank and
the Provention Consortium, as well as from the START-IIASA A dvanced Institute
on Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change , which fi nanced the various
country consultations.
vii
Contents
1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1
Introduction References ............................................................................... 4
2 A conceptual framework of economic vulnerability .............................. 5
2.1 Vulnerability....................................................................................... 6
2.2 Economic vulnerability ...................................................................... 7
2.2.1 Coping and adaptive capacity ................................................ 9
2.2.2 The cycle of economic vulnerability ...................................... 11
2.3 Drivers of economic vulnerability ..................................................... 13
2.3.1 Assets accumulation ............................................................... 13
2.3.2 Poverty and entitlements ........................................................ 14
2.3.3 Emigration as response to rural poverty ................................ 18
2.4 Agriculture as livelihood .................................................................... 18
2.5 Final comments .................................................................................. 21
Chapter References ...................................................................................... 22
3 Natural hazards and economic stressors ................................................ 25
3.1 Historical losses from natural hazards ............................................... 26
3.1.1 Hurricane ................................................................................ 26
3.1.2 Floods ..................................................................................... 28
3.1.3 Earthquake ............................................................................. 29
3.1.4 Volcanoes ............................................................................... 32
3.1.5 Droughts ................................................................................. 33
3.2 Hazard exposure of agriculture .......................................................... 33
3.3 Relative vulnerability of the poor ...................................................... 35
3.4 Trade liberalization ............................................................................ 39
3.4.1 Globalization and regionalization .......................................... 39
3.4.2 Growing share of foreign trade in the economy .................... 40
3.4.3 Negative terms of trade .......................................................... 41
3.4.4 NAFTA and agriculture .......................................................... 42
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