Morocco 2040

371 Pages·2013·6.82 MB·English

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DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT
Countries and Regions
Morocco 2040
C
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Jean-Pierre Chauffour

Morocco 2040

Directions in Development
Countries and Regions
Morocco 2040
Emerging by Investing in Intangible Capital
Jean-Pierre Chauffour
© 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Chauffour, Jean-Pierre. 2018. Morocco 2040: Emerging by
Investing in Intangible Capital. Directions in Development. Washington, DC: World Bank.
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ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1066-4
ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1077-0
DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1066-4
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Morocco 2040 • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1066-4
Contents
Foreword xiii
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xvii
About the Author xxiii
Overview xxv
Introduction A Youth in Search of Opportunities 1
Amine: Young and Unskilled 6
Nisrine: Young and Low-Skilled 7
Kawtar: Young and Skilled 8
Réda: Young and Highly Skilled 9
Amine, Nisrine, Kawtar, and Réda 10
Notes 11
References 12
part i morocco today and tomorrow 13
Chapter 1 Morocco in 2016 15
The Start of Economic and Social Convergence 15
A Slow and Incomplete Convergence Process 29
The Flagging Development Model 43
The Challenges of a Slow Structural Transformation 65
Notes 86
References 88
Chapter 2 Morocco in 2040 93
A Window of Opportunity 94
Morocco at a Crossroads 105
Changing the Development Paradigm 113
Notes 124
References 125
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vi Contents
part ii intangible capital: the pathway to economic
emergence 129
Chapter 3 Investing in Market Support Institutions 131
Allocating Capital More Competitively 132
Allocating Labor More Efficiently and Inclusively 153
Integrating Morocco More Closely with the
International Economy 166
Notes 182
References 184
Chapter 4 Investing in Institutions and Public Services 189
Strengthening the Rule of Law and Justice 190
Modernizing the Civil Service 199
Improving Public Service Governance 209
Notes 219
References 220
Chapter 5 Investing in Human Capital 225
Placing Education at the Heart of Development 225
Investing in Health for Improved Well-Being 245
Prioritizing Early Childhood as the Foundation of
Human Capital 262
Notes 269
References 271
Chapter 6 Investing in Social Capital 275
Contribution of Social Capital to Development 276
Achieving Gender Equality 278
Fostering Interpersonal Trust and Civic Responsibility 298
Notes 311
References 312
Epilogue The Political Economy of Change—An
Essential Transition 317
Improve Information Sharing with Actors 320
Change and Comply with the Rules of the Game 325
Notes 330
References 330
Boxes
1.1 From the Concept of GDP to the Notion of Wealth 20
1.2 The Total Wealth of Nations and Its Components 22
1.3 Growth in Morocco’s Wealth and Its Components, 1999–2013 24
1.4 Modeling the Components of Intangible Capital 26
Morocco 2040 • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1066-4
Contents vii
1.5 What Is the Middle-Class Income Threshold? 41
1.6 Growth Accounting 44
1.7 A Brief History of Productivity in the Moroccan Economy,
1960–2015 50
1.8 Economic Contribution of Overexploitation of Groundwater
in Morocco 58
1.9 Is Morocco the Only Country Concerned by Premature
Deindustrialization? 72
2.1 Even in Morocco, a Degree Is the Best Insurance against
Unemployment 104
2.2 Avoiding the “Middle-Income Trap” in a Context of Slower
Growth 106
2.3 Morocco at a Crossroads 107
2.4 Growing Consensus around Key Reforms to Strengthen
Institutional and Human Capital 116
2.5 Institutional School of Development Economics 119
2.6 Definition, Characteristics, and Consequences of an
Open Society 120
2.7 The “Desirable Morocco” Scenario Goes Back 10 Years 123
3.1 European Experience with the Liberalization of the
Broadband Sector 140
3.2 Measuring the Effects of Market Distortions in Morocco’s
Manufacturing Sector on Potential Total Factor Productivity 142
3.3 Conditions for Renault’s Installation in Tangier 144
5.1 Origins of “Limited Literacy” in Moroccan Society, Extracts
from Janjar, 2016 229
5.2 Measuring “Total Income” 247
6.1 Morality and Religion in an Open Society 279
6.2 Government Equality Plan and Gender Responsive Budgeting 282
6.3 Evaluation of the Impact of Public Policies on Gender
Inequalities and Growth in Morocco 294
6.4 Notions of Bonding Social Capital and Bridging Social Capital 302
6.5 Status of Social Cohesion in Morocco 304
E.1 Game Theory 318
E.2 Characteristics of Extractive and Inclusive Institutions 319
E.3 Information Theory 322
E.4 Institutionalization of Public Policy Experimentation in China 324
E.5 New Rules of the Game and the 2011 Constitution 327
E.6 The New Rules of the Game Imported from the
European Union 329
Figures
I.1 What Are Morocco’s General Issues and Development Priorities? 4
1.1 Morocco: Per Capita GDP 16
Morocco 2040 • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1066-4
viii Contents
1.2 Economic Convergence of Morocco with Southern Europe 17
B.1.2.1 The Components of the Wealth of Nations 22
1.3 Morocco: Growth in Total Wealth per Capita and
Components, 1990–2013 23
1.4 Breakdown of Middle-Income Countries’ Intangible Capital,
2005–11 25
1.5 Morocco: Per Capita GDP in 2015, International Comparison 30
1.6 The Economic Miracles’ 30-Year Boom Periods 30
1.7 Per Capita GDP in Morocco and Middle-Income Countries,
1990–2015 31
1.8 Per Capita GDP in Morocco, the Republic of Korea,
and Turkey, 1990–2015 32
1.9 Per Capita Wealth Growth and Composition, 2000 vs. 2011 33
1.10 Morocco: Per Capita Wealth Growth and Composition, 2011 33
1.11 Share of Intangible Capital in Total Wealth, 2000–11 34
1.12 Child Mortality in 2015 35
1.13 Share of Food in the Household Budget, 2010 36
1.14 Reading Literacy Inequalities 37
1.15 Morocco: Gini Coefficient, 1985–2014 37
1.16 Ten-Year-Old Students (Grade 4) with Basic Literacy Skills 39
1.17 World Happiness Index Country Rankings, 2017 40
1.18 Share of the Middle and Upper Class in the Population 42
1.19 Morocco: Employment Rate, 2000–15 45
1.20 Employment Rate for Persons Ages 15–65 Years, 2015 46
1.21 Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation), 2000–14 47
1.22 Investment Rates in Countries That Achieved Economic
“Miracles” 47
1.23 Total Factor Productivity 48
1.24 Morocco: Contribution of Capital, Labor, and Total Factor
Productivity to Growth 50
1.25 Morocco: Composition of Investment, 1998–2014 52
1.26 Morocco: Apparent Labor Productivity Growth Rate, by Sector,
2000–12 54
1.27 Morocco: Net Job Creation, by Sector, 2000–12 54
1.28 Morocco: Cost of Environmental Degradation 55
1.29 Morocco: Annual Water Supply, 1946–2010 56
1.30 Morocco: Overexploitation of Groundwater Resources, 2011 57
1.31 Morocco: Contribution of Demand Components to
Growth, 2008–15 60
1.32 Morocco: Bank Lending to the Private Sector, 2001–15 62
1.33 Bank Lending to the Private Sector, 2015 63
1.34 Morocco’s Transformation Relative to Upper-Middle-Income
Countries, by Sector, 1980–2014 66
1.35 Agriculture’s Share of Employment, 1950–2011 67
Morocco 2040 • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1066-4