More Scottish than British: The 2011 Scottish Parliament Election

198 Pages·2014·1.363 MB·English

by  Christopher Carman, Robert Johns, James Mitchell (auth.)

More Scottish than British
TheComparativeTerritorialPoliticsSeries
Serieseditors:CharlieJeffery,ProfessorofPolitics,SchoolofSocialandPoliticalScience,
UniversityofEdinburgh,UK,andMichaelKeating,ProfessorofPolitics,Universityof
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Titlesinclude:
ChristopherCarman,RobertJohnsandJamesMitchell
MORESCOTTISHTHANBRITISH
The2011ScottishParliamentElection
Alain-GGagnonandMichaelKeating(editors)
POLITICALAUTONOMYANDDIVIDEDSOCIETIES
ImaginingDemocraticAlternativesinComplexSettings
MichelSeymourandAlain-GGagnon(editors)
MULTINATIONALFEDERALISM
ProblemsandProspects
IrinaStefuriuc
GOVERNMENTFORMATIONINMULTI-LEVELSETTINGS
PartyStrategyandInstitutionalConstraints
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More Scottish than British
The 2011 Scottish Parliament Election
Christopher Carman
ProfessorofPolitics,UniversityofGlasgow,UK
Robert Johns
SeniorLecturerinPolitics,UniversityofEssex,UK
James Mitchell
ProfessorofPublicPolicy,UniversityofEdinburgh,UK
©ChristopherCarman,RobertJohnsandJamesMitchell2014
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-02369-8
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Carman,ChristopherJ.
MoreScottishthanBritish:the2011ScottishParliamentelection/
ChristopherCarman,RobertJohns,JamesMitchell.
pages cm
Summary:“Withtheaidofthemostextensiveandcomprehensivesurveydata
extractedfromvotersduringthe2011ScottishGeneral,thisbookanalysesthe
reasonsbehindwhytheSNPnotonlyretainedtheirmandatefromthepeopleto
governScotlandbutfurthersucceededinwinningaresoundingmajorityinthe
ScottishParliament.Intacklingthisoverarchingquestionothercomplexissues
arealsoexploredsuchaswhetherapre-occupationwitheventsatWestminster
confinedtheScottishElectionstotherealmof‘second-order’elections?What
impactthefinancialcrisishadonelectedaparliamentthatinrealityhaslittle
economicpower?Thevolumealsohasabroaderappealtodevolved
parliamentaryelectionsmorebroadlybyexploringwhatmatterstovoterswhen
theycasttheirballotsfortheirnationalparliamentinacomplex,multi-level
Politicalsystem.Examiningperformanceevaluations,partyloyaltiesand
constitutionalpreferences,theauthorsshowthatScottishelectionsare
increasinglyScottishaffairs,wherevotersareconcernedwithgovernment
competence–indomesticmattersandinmanagingrelationswith
Westminster.”—Providedbypublisher.
1. Scotland.Parliament—Elections,2011. 2. Elections—Scotland. 3. Political
parties—Scotland. 4. Scotland—Politicsandgovernment—21stcentury.
I. Title.
JN1341.C372013
324.9411(cid:2)08612—dc23 2013021790
Contents
ListofTablesandFigures vi
1 The2011ScottishElectioninContext 1
2 ResultsandtheSourcesofPartySupport 25
3 PartiesandLeaders 48
4 PerformancePoliticsatHolyrood 78
5 How‘Scottish’WasthisElection? 106
6 PartyChoicein2011 130
Appendix1:The2011ScottishElectionStudy 158
Appendix2:FullResultsofStatistical(Regression)Analyses 160
Notes 169
References 172
Index 180
v
Tables and Figures
Tables
1.1 ResultsofScottishParliamentelections,1999,2003,
2007and2011 6
1.2 Majoritybuilding1999–2003;2003–2007;
2007–2011 8
1.3 2011CampaignspendinginScottishelections
comparedtoWestminster(general)elections,in
GBP 19
1.4 2011Partyspendingbyexpenditurecategory 20
1.5 2011Partyspendingbyexpenditurecategoryasa
percentageof2007spending 21
2.1 Listvotebydemographicgroup,2011andchange
2007–2011 31
2.2 Listvotebyreligionandreligiosity 31
2.3 Partyvotebyobjectiveandsubjectivesocialclass,
columnpercentages 32
2.4 Listvotebynationalidentity,2011(changessince
2007) 36
2.5 Constituencylistshareofthevotebyparty 42
2.6 Votein2011(constituencyandregion)by2007
voteforthepanelrespondents 45
2.7 Constituencyvotein2011byrecalled2010general
electionvote 46
3.1 Partisanship(identification,leaningandcombined)
in2007and2011 54
3.2 Pre-electionpartyidentificationandregionalvote 55
3.3 Meanpartyratingson0–10scale:(i)allrespondents
(ii)bypartyidentification 58
3.4 Partyratingsonfivefacetsofpartyimage:(i)all
respondents(ii)undecidedvoters 61
3.5 Perceptionsofcampaigntonebyparty,2011and
2007 64
vi
ListofTablesandFigures vii
3.6 Perceivedbestandworstdebateperformers:(i)all
watchers(ii)bypartyidentification 68
3.7 Ratingsofpartyleadersonlike-dislikescalebyall
respondentsandnon-identifiers 70
4.1 Evaluationsofgoverningpartyperformance:
ScottishandWestminstergovernments 82
4.2 Evaluationsofoutcomesinfourkeyissueareas 84
4.3 Attributionsofresponsibilityforoutcomesinfour
issueareasbyevaluations 85
4.4 Open-ended‘mostimportantissue’responses,2007
and2011 87
4.5 Partybestabletohandleeach‘mostimportant
issue’,rowpercentages 89
4.6 Distributionofvoters’opinionsonsixpolicyissues 92
4.7 Perceptionofparties’commitmenttodefending
(i)Scotlandagainstthecuts;(ii)Scottishinterestsin
general 96
4.8 Twomeasuresofconstitutionalpreferenceat
Scottishelectionssince1999 99
4.9 Perceivedconstitutionalstancesandcorrelations
withperceivedcommitmenttoScottishinterests,
2007and2011 103
5.1 Percentagedeemingeachlevel‘mainlyresponsible’
forkeypolicyareas,2007–2011 109
5.2 Percentagedeemingeachlevel‘mainlyresponsible’
foroutcomessince2007 111
5.3 Mostimportantissuefacing:(i)Britain(ii)Scotland 112
5.4 Partybestabletohandleeconomicissuesfacing
BritainandScotland(rowpercentages) 113
5.5 Basisforvotingdecision,1999–2011,andby
selected‘mostimportantissue’in2011 116
5.6 Regionallistvotebyreportedmainfocus,2011and
2007 117
5.7 Responsestomulti-levelpartyidentification
questions,columnpercentages 122
5.8 ScottishpartyidentificationconditionalonUK
partyidentification,columnpercentages 123
5.9 UKpartyidentificationconditionalonScottish
partyidentification,columnpercentages 123
viii ListofTablesandFigures
5.10 Partysupportcombiningpost-electionexperimental
halves,rowpercentages 126
6.1 Variableswithstatisticallysignificanteffectsin
multinomiallogitoflistvote 134
A22.1 Multinomiallogitofregionalpartychoiceon
demographiccharacteristics(forFigure2.1) 161
A23.1 OLSregressionsofpartylike/dislike(0–10scale)on
partyimageassessments,controllingforparty
identification(forFigure3.1) 162
A23.2 Multinomiallogitofregionalpartychoiceonleader
evaluationsanddemographiccharacteristics(for
Figure3.2) 163
A24.1 Structuralmodelestimates(forFigure4.2) 165
A26.1 Multinomiallogitofregionalpartychoiceon
attitudinalanddemographicpredictors
(forFigure6.1) 166
Figures
1.1 Turnout,1997–2011 10
1.2 Holyroodlistvotingintention,January2009–May
2011 14
2.1 Multinomiallogisticregressionoflistvoteon
socio-demographicpredictors 39
2.2 DeviationfromproportionalityandScottish
Labour’sshareofthevote,1945–2010UKelections 41
2.3 NumberofconstituencyandregionMSPselectedby
party,1999–2011 43
3.1 Impact(standardizedregressioncoefficients)of
imagevariablesonpartylike-dislikeratings 63
3.2 Meaneffectsofleadershipevaluationsonparty
choice 74
4.1 Voterself-placementsandmeanpartyplacements
ontwoissuescales 94
4.2 StructuralmodelpredictingattitudestotheSNPin
2011(N =559) 100
5.1 Multi-levelpartyidentificationexperiment 125
5.2 Multi-levelpartyidentificationexperiment 125
ListofTablesandFigures ix
6.1 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof
votingSNP 138
6.2 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof
votingLabour 141
6.3 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof
votingConservative 143
6.4 Effectsofsignificantvariablesontheprobabilityof
votingLiberalDemocrat 145