Modeling Infectious Disease Parameters Based on Serological and Social Contact Data: A Modern Statistical Perspective

299 Pages·2012·7.267 MB·English

by  Niel Hens, Ziv Shkedy, Marc Aerts, Christel Faes, Pierre Van Damme, Philippe Beutels (auth.)

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Niel Hens • Ziv Shkedy • Marc Aerts • Christel Faes
Pierre Van Damme • Philippe Beutels
Modeling Infectious Disease
Parameters Based on
Serological and Social
Contact Data
A Modern Statistical Perspective
123
NielHens ZivShkedy
CenterforStatistics,Interuniversity CenterforStatistics,Interuniversity
InstituteforBiostatistics InstituteforBiostatistics
andstatisticalBioinformatics andstatisticalBioinformatics
HasseltUniversity HasseltUniversity
Diepenbeek,Belgium Diepenbeek,Belgium
CentreforHealthEconomicResearch
ChristelFaes
andModellingInfectiousDiseases,
CenterforStatistics,Interuniversity
VaccineandInfectiousDiseaseInstitute
InstituteforBiostatisticsand
UniversityofAntwerp
statisticalBioinformatics
Universiteitsplein1
HasseltUniversity
2610Antwerpen,Belgium
Diepenbeek,Belgium
MarcAerts
PhilippeBeutels
CenterforStatistics,Interuniversity
CentreforHealthEconomicResearch
InstituteforBiostatisticsand
andModellingInfectiousDiseases,
statisticalBioinformatics
VaccineandInfectiousDiseaseInstitute
HasseltUniversity
UniversityofAntwerp
Diepenbeek,Belgium
Antwerpen,Belgium
PierreVanDamme
CentrefortheEvaluation
ofVaccination,Vaccineand
InfectiousDiseaseInstitute
UniversityofAntwerp
Antwerpen,Belgium
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http://extras.springer.com
ISSN1431-8776
ISBN978-1-4614-4071-0 ISBN978-1-4614-4072-7(eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-1-4614-4072-7
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Preface
Mathematical epidemiologyof infectiousdiseases usually involves describing the
flow of individuals between mutually exclusive infection states. One of the key
parametersdescribingthetransitionfromthesusceptibletotheinfectedclassisthe
hazardofinfection,oftenreferredtoastheforceofinfection.Theforceofinfection
reflectsthedegreeofcontactwith potentialfortransmissionbetweeninfectedand
susceptible individuals. The mathematical relation between the force of infection
andeffectivecontactpatternsisgenerallyassumedtobesubjectedtothemassaction
principle,whichyieldsthenecessaryinformationtoestimatethebasicreproduction
number,anotherkeyparameterininfectiousdiseaseepidemiology.
It is within this context that the Center for Statistics (CenStat, Interuniversity
Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University) and
the Centre for the Evaluation of Vaccination and the Centre for Health Economic
Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases (CEV, CHERMID, Vaccine and In-
fectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp) have collaboratedover the past
15years. This book demonstrates the past and current research activities of these
institutesandcanbeconsideredtobeamilestoneinthiscollaboration.
Thisbookisfocusedontheapplicationofmodernstatisticalmethodsandmodels
to estimate infectious disease parameters. We want to provide the readers with
software guidance,such asR packages,and with data, as far asthey can be made
publicly available. Please visit www.simid.be for data and code pertaining to this
book.
Manypersonshavecontributedeitherdirectlyorindirectlytothisbookforwhich
we areverygrateful:@ Hasselt University:StevenAbrams,GirmaMinaluAyele,
KaatjeBollaerts,EmanueleDelFava,NeleGoeyvaerts,GeertMolenberghs,Harriet
Namata, and Kim Van Kerckhove, @ University of Antwerp: Mathieu Andraud,
JokeBilcke,OlivierLejeune,ElkeLeuridan,BensonOgunjimi,andHeidiTheeten,
and elsewhere: Kari Auranen, Benoit Dervaux, John Edmunds,Paddy Farrington,
Nigel Gay, Janneke Heijne, Daniel Hlubinka, Mark Jit, Peter Kung’U Kimani,
MiraKojouhorova,AndreaKvitkovicova,MarcoMassari,RafaelMikolajczyk,Joe¨l
Mossong, Magdalena Rosinka, Malgorzata Sadkowska-Todys, Stefania Salmaso,
GianpaoloScaliaTomba,ThierryVanEffelterre,JaccoWallinga,AndreasWienke,
vii
viii Preface
and James Wood. We also wish to thank the editorial team at Springer, more
particularly John Kimmel, Marc Strauss, and Hannah Bracken for their guidance
throughout the writing process and the reviewers Piero Manfredi, James Wood,
Jacco Wallinga, and Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba whose identity was revealed to us
andwhosesuggestionsimprovedthebookconsiderably.
Theauthorswouldappreciatebeinginformedoferrorsandmaybecontactedby
electronicmail:[email protected].
HasseltandAntwerp NielHens
ZivShkedy
MarcAerts
ChristelFaes
PierreVanDamme
PhilippeBeutels
Acknowledgements
This book would not have been possible without the strategic basic research
project SIMID funded by the agency for the Promotion of Innovation by Science
and Technologyin Flanders (IWT project number 060081).We further gratefully
acknowledge the chair in evidence-based vaccinology, which was sponsored by
a gift from Pfizer. Some of the material in this book was developed based on
earlier work funded by the Flemish fund for scientific research (FWO project
numberG039304),EC’ssixthframeworkprojectPOLYMOD,andtheIAPresearch
network nr P6/03 of the Belgian Government(Belgian Science Policy). We thank
theproductionteamatSpringerfortheirsupportatthefinalstageofthepublication
process.
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