Table Of ContentMinisterial Survival During Political
and Cabinet Change
Political leaders need ministers to help them rule and so conventional wisdom sug-
gests that leaders appoint competent ministers to their cabinet.
This book shows this is not necessarily the case. It examines the conditions that
facilitate survival in ministerial office and how they are linked to ministerial com-
petence, the political survival of heads of government and the nature of political
institutions. Presenting a formal theory of political survival in the cabinet, it sys-
tematically analyses the tenure in office of more than 7,300 ministers of foreign
affairs covering more than 180 countries spanning the years 1696–2004. In doing
so, it sheds light not only on studies of ministerial change but also on diplomacy,
the occurrence of war, and the democratic peace in international relations.
This text will be of key interest to students of comparative executive govern-
ment, comparative foreign policy, political elites, and more broadly to comparative
politics, political economy, political history and international relations.
Alejandro Quiroz Flores is Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government
at the University of Essex, UK. His work has appeared at Political Science
Research and Methods, the British Journal of Political Science, and International
Studies Quarterly, among others. He is also the manager of the Comparative
Political Economics Division at the Department of Government.
Routledge Research on Social and Political Elites
Edited by Keith Dowding
Australian National University
and
Patrick Dumont
University of Luxembourg
Who are the elites that run the world? This series of books analyses who the elites
are, how they rise and fall, the networks in which they operate and the effects
they have on our lives.
1 Coalition Government and Party Mandate
How coalition agreements constrain ministerial action
Catherine Moury
2 The Selection of Ministers in Europe
Hiring and firing
Edited by Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont
3 Parliamentary Elites in Central and Eastern Europe
Recruitment and representation
Edited by Elena Semenova, Michael Edinger and Heinrich Best
4 The Selection of Political Party Leaders in Contemporary
Parliamentary Democracies
A comparative study
Edited by Jean-Benoit Pilet and William P. Cross
5 The Selection of Ministers around the World
Edited by Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont
6 Party Members and Activists
Edited by Emilie van Haute and Anika Gauja
7 Political Representation
Roles, representatives and the represented
Edited by Marc Bühlmann and Jan Fivaz
8 Ministerial Survival During Political and Cabinet Change
Foreign affairs, diplomacy and war
Alejandro Quiroz Flores
Ministerial Survival During
Political and Cabinet Change
Foreign affairs, diplomacy and war
Alejandro Quiroz Flores
First published 2017
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group,
an informa business
© 2017 Alejandro Quiroz Flores
The right of Alejandro Quiroz Flores to be identified as author of this
work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78
of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced
or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means,
now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording,
or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in
writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested
ISBN: 978-1-138-19364-2 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-63924-6 (ebk)
Typeset in Times New Roman
by Apex CoVantage, LLC
Contents
List of figures vi
List of tables vii
Preface viii
Acknowledgments ix
1 Introduction 1
2 The study of cabinet change 19
3 Political survival and cabinet change 38
4 Data on foreign ministers 60
5 Foreign affairs, diplomacy, and war 77
6 Evidence in autocracies 95
7 Global evidence 114
8 Conclusions 132
References 141
Index 149
Figures
3.1 A leader’s probability of reelection 47
3.2 A leader’s probability of party retention: no private goods 48
3.3 A leader’s probability of party retention: private goods 48
3.4 Probability of cabinet change: no private goods 50
3.5 Probability of cabinet change: private goods 51
4.1 Number of cabinet positions, February 2009 61
4.2 Survivor function of foreign ministers, 1696–2004 71
4.3 Hazard rate of foreign ministers, 1696–2004 73
4.4 Hazard rate of foreign ministers by W 75
6.1 Hazard rate of leaders, 1840–2004 97
6.2 Data organization 98
6.3 Model 2: probability of minister deposition in
autocracies and W = 0 107
6.4 Model 1: probability of minister deposition in civilian
autocracies and W = 0 109
6.5 Model 2: probability of minister deposition in military
autocracies and W = 0 109
7.1 Model 2: probability of minister change and leader
continuation in parliamentary systems and W = 1 122
Tables
4.1 Number of cabinet positions for selected countries,
February 2009 62
4.2 Number of cabinet positions per 100,000 people,
February 2009 62
4.3 The Hall of Fame of foreign ministers 73
6.1 Summary statistics 101
6.2 Coalition size and system 102
6.3 Instrumental variable probit 105
6.4 Instrumental variable probit 108
6.5 Instrumental variable probit 111
7.1 Bivariate probit 120
7.2 Bivariate probit 124
7.3 Bivariate probit 127
7.4 Bivariate probit 129
Preface
This book is founded on my doctoral work at New York University. The idea
first emerged during a PhD seminar led by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair
Smith, who would later become my PhD supervisors. At that particular time, it
occurred to me that the argument in The Logic of Political Survival (Bueno de
Mesquita et al. 2003) could and should be extended to cabinet ministers. Over
the years, I worked closely with Bruce and Alastair in order to develop the theory
and collect the relevant data to test my hypotheses.
As I made progress and collected data, I published an article in Foreign Policy
Analysis in 2009 that presents an empirical analysis that served as a stepping
stone to the more sophisticated econometric analysis of this book. In addition,
Alastair and I published a game theory model of cabinet change and political
survival in Economics and Politics in 2011. Chapter 3 is an extended version of
this article, although the text here differs significantly from the article version,
as it elaborates on a number of issues and presents more examples that illustrate
the intuition of the model.
As I completed the dissertation and became an assistant professor at the Uni-
versity of Essex, I started to collaborate with a network of researchers interested
in political elites – the Selection and Deselection of Political Elites (SEDEPE)
network – and particularly with Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont. Keith and
Patrick first invited me to write a chapter about the cabinet in the US for their
recent edited book The Selection of Ministers Around the World (2015), which
complements their edited volume on The Selection of Ministers in Europe. Hiring
and Firing (2009). Together, these two volumes have put together the largest set
of recent work on ministerial politics. A significant proportion of the research
presented in this book is informed by the studies developed by the SEDEPE
network and my interaction with them.
Alejandro Quiroz Flores
March 2016
Colchester, United Kingdom
Acknowledgments
The first set of acknowledgments goes to my former supervisors Bruce Bueno
de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. Bruce and Alastair inspired me to explore new
questions on political survival that continue to drive my current research agenda
as a senior lecturer. I am very grateful to Bruce and Alastair for their guidance,
unparalleled support, and friendship throughout these years.
I am also thankful to the other members of my research committee at NYU.
Neal Beck provided great suggestions on the empirical sections of the project
as well as unique training during my years in New York. I am also thankful to
the late George Downs, as well as Mike Gilligan, who also trained me during
my PhD and served as members of the committee.
This book could not have been written without the encouragement and patience
of Keith Dowding and Patrick Dumont. Keith and Patrick read my dissertation
and invited me to turn it into a book. They provided guidance and many detailed
comments and suggestions over the last few years that strengthened the overall
project and made it more relevant and easier to read.
I also want to thank several anonymous reviewers who gave me very useful
feedback and suggested how to improve the book. Any weaknesses found in the
pages that follow are my responsibility.
Over the years, many friends and colleagues in universities in the United
States and Europe provided encouragement in multiple ways, both professional
and personal. I have also presented my work in conferences, workshops, and
universities that are too many to list here. I am grateful for all the invitations
and feedback that I have received over these years.
On a personal note, my brothers have been a constant source of motivation
and humor, and for that I am very thankful. My new niece Renata has given me
much happiness.
My wife Barbara Czarnecka is often curious about my research and always
patient about the long hours I devote to my work. I could not have completed
this manuscript without her support. This book is dedicated to her and to our
new baby, Alex.
Description:Political leaders need ministers to help them rule and so conventional wisdom suggests that leaders appoint competent ministers to their cabinet. This book shows this is not necessarily the case. It examines the conditions that facilitate survival in ministerial office and how they are linked to min
