Table Of ContentMe(cid:127)aropolitan
ter
Water Resources Monograph Series
Volume 1
Synthetic Streamflows
M. B Fiering and B.B. Jackson
Volume 2
Benefit-Cost Analysis for Water System Planning
C.W. Howe
Volume 3
Outdoor Recreation and Water Resources Planning
J.L. Knetsch
Volume 4
Multiobjective Water Resource Planning
D.C. Major
Volume 5
Groundwater Management: The Use of Numerical Models
Y. Bachmat, J. Bredehoeft, B. Andrews, D. Holtz, and S.
WATERRE SOURCMEOSN OGRASPEHR IE6S
Management
J. Gordon Milliken
GrahamC . Taylor
AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Published under the aegis of the
American Geophysical Union' s
Water Resources Monograph Board;
John D. Bredehoeft, Chairman; David
Dawdy; Charles W. Howe; Thomas Mad-
dock, III; Helen J. Peters; Eric
Wood
Water Resources Monograph Series
Metropolitan Water Management
J. Gordon Milliken and Graham C. Taylor
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Milliken, J. Gordon
Metropolitan water management.
(Water resources monograph; 6)
Includes bibliographical references.
1. Municipal water supply--United States. I. Taylor,
Graham C., 1939- . II. Title. III. Series.
HD4461.M53 333.91 ' 00973 81-12915
ISBN 0-87590-307-X AACR2
Copyright 1981 by the
American Geophysical Union
2000 Florida Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20009
Printed in the United States of
FOREWORD
To facilitate the transfer of information from the research
community to those engaged in the day-to-day problems of planning
and managing water resource systems, the American Geophysical Union
has undertaken the publication of the Water Resources Monograph
Series. Each monograph is meant to describe the theory and appli-
cation of a specific technique or approach to water resources
planning. It is not the purpose of the monographs to present
detailed treatments at the level of the specialist but rather to
define the basis of particular theories and techniques and to
illustrate their application.
This monograph, which treats the problems of municipal water
supply, is the sixth in the series. There are complex policy and
management questions which must be answered in addressing the
problems of water supply for a metropolitan area. The authors
address a number of complex issues in their discussion of alterna-
tive strategies for maintaining a balance between supply and
demand. Among these issues are conservation, pricing policy,
reallocation of agriculture water, groundwater, precipitation
augmentation, desalination, and reuse of municipal wastewater. A
number of these issues are at the forefront of water policy today
and are likely to remain policy issues well into the future. The
authors address the decision making process for water supply for a
metropolitan area, and present a framework for analysis. This
should be a particularly useful volume for those concerned with the
problems of water supply.
The Water Resources Monograph Series was initiated with support-
ing grants from Resources for the Future and the U.S. Department of
the Interior as authorized under the Water Resources Act of
as amended. The first three monographs of the series, dealing with
synthetic flow generation, benefit-cost analysis, and recreational
planning, were designated as U.S. contributions to the Interna-
tional Hydrologic Decade (1965-1974).
J.
PREFACE
This monograph is intended to inform interested and capable
persons, who happen not to be specialists in water resources
planning, of the issues and alternative strategies related to
metropolitan water supply. This involves learning something about
the alternative strategies--some ancient and others not yet
operational--for increasing water supplies and/or (cid:127)odifying demand
so a supply/demand balance is maintained. This also requires an
awareness of the complex economic, environmental, and social issues
that increasingly compound what once was considered a purely tech-
nological problem, to be left to water resource specialists to
solve.
There are still relatively fortunate geographic areas which have
such ample supplies of water in lakes or rivers that water planning
is simple. A Missouri schoolchild's comment on Colorado comes to
mind: "They call their water a natural resource; here, we call it
rain." Yet the audience for this monograph is believed to be wide
and growing wider. Water problems are not only common to the
southwestern U.S. and Rocky Mountains, but are faced by major
eastern metropolitan regions: Boston, New York, Philadelphia/
Camden, and Washington, D.C. Water problems are a form of
metropolitan growth problem, and wise planning is not wasted effort
in any metropolis.
This monograph had its origins in a much larger report developed
by a study team at Denver Research Institute during 1974-1977.
That report, prepared largely under sponsorship by the U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, was published as: J. Gordon Milliken,
Graham C. Taylor, Carole R. Cristiano, David L. Schooler, Lucy
Black Creighton, and Clyde O. Martz, A Methodology for
Municipal Water Supply Planning in Water-Short Metropolitan Areas
(two volumes), Denver, Colorado: Denver Research Institute,
University of Denver, 1977. We are indebted to our co-authors of
that report for many contributions that we have carried over to
this monograph.
We also acknowledge the considerable contribution of our
research assistant, Eugenie Fulton, who tirelessly edited the
760-page 1977 work down to monograph size and helped us to improve
the writing style and clarity of content.
J. GORDON MILLIKEN and GRAHAM C. TAYLOR
Industrial Economics Division
Denver Research Institute
University of Denver
Denver,
CONTENTS
Foreword v
Preface vii
1. INTRODUCTION
Role of Policy Analysis in Water System Planning ....... 1
Scope and Limitations of Decision-Making Methodology ..... 3
2. DETERMINING THE WATER SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
Defining the Study Area and the Extent of the Planned
Time-Horizon ........................ 7
Choosing or Developing a Population Prediction ........ 10
Projecting Water Demand ................... 18
Surveying and Forecasting Water Supplies ........... 25
Determining Confidence Levels for Water Supply and Demand . . 28
3. EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR MAINTAINING THE
SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
Water Conservation Programs ................. 33
Water Pricing to Reduce Demand ................ 46
Increasing Yield Through Water System Management ....... 61
Diverting Additional Water Supplies into the Study Area . . . 66
Reallocation of Agricultural Water Supplies ......... 72
Using Groundwater ...................... 74
Using Watershed Land Management Techniques .......... 80
Precipitation Augmentation .................. 88
Desalinization of Brackish or Salt Water ........... 98
Reuse of Municipal Wastewater ................ 104
4. THE EVALUATION AND DECISION PROCESS
Analyzing the Effectiveness and Total Costs of Alternatives. . 122
Analyzing Additional Effects and Impacts ........... 134
Framework for Analysis of Alternatives ............ 138
Demonstration of the Evaluation/Decision Process ....... 152
Epilogue ........................... 171
References ..........................
INTRODUCTION
The Role of Policy Analysis in Water System Planning
This monograph describes a methodology for water supply planning
in metropolitan areas where water resources are limited. It is
designed to guide municipal decision makers in any area of the
United States where projected water demands seem likely to outstrip
reliable supplies. The methodology involves a comprehensive
analysis of alternative policies, and is intended to assist
decision makers in planning for a least-cost water supply that will
meet future water demands.
Until fairly recently, it was usually possible to develop new
water supplies rather inexpensively to keep pace with the require-
ments of urban growth. In many areas of the U.S. today, the
continued concentration of population in urban industrial clusters
is outstripping municipal efforts to develop additional water
supplies. Water supply agencies face increasing supply costs, and
the problem of providing urban water resources grows increasingly
complex, especially because it is interrelated with the issue of
environmental quality. Just when traditional sources of water are
becoming exhausted, resistance grows to damming wild and scenic
rivers, to transferring water supplies from agricultural to
municipal use, and to the costs of constructing ever more remote
water collection and transmission facilities as cities grow and
compete for water. Thus, without new approaches to water resource
development, there will be a widening gap between the supply and
demand for water and a continuing conflict between the desire for
more water and the desire for conservation and environmental
protection.
The purpose of this monograph is (1) to present and
