Methodological improvements to ex-ante techno-economic modelling and uncertainty analysis of ...

322 Pages·2017·10.87 MB·English

Methodological improvements to ex-ante techno-economic
modelling and uncertainty analysis of emerging CO capture
2
technologies

Mijndert Willem van der Spek

15019 - vdSpek_BNW.indd 1 31-10-17 11:32
Methodological improvements to ex-ante techno-economic
modelling and uncertainty analysis of emerging CO capture
2
technologies

Methodologische verbeteringen in het ex-ante techno-
economisch modelleren en de onzekerheidsanalyse van

opkomende CO afvang technologieën.
2

(met een samenvatting in het Nederlands)

Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag
van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. G.J. van der Zwaan, ingevolge het besluit
Methodological improvements to ex-ante techno-economic modelling and van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 6
uncertainty analysis of emerging CO2 capture technologies december 2017 des middags te 12.45 uur
Mijndert van der Spek, Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Department of

Innovation, Environmental, and Energy Sciences, Copernicus Institute of
Sustainable Development, Group Energy & Resources. door
Mijndert Willem van der Spek
ISBN: 978-90-8672-079-8 geboren op 1 april 1982 te Amersfoort
Print: Ridderprint

Cover design: James Jardine, DESIGN YOUR THESIS
Copyright ©2017, Mijndert van der Spek

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Methodological improvements to ex-ante techno-economic
modelling and uncertainty analysis of emerging CO capture
2
technologies

Methodologische verbeteringen in het ex-ante techno-
economisch modelleren en de onzekerheidsanalyse van

opkomende CO afvang technologieën.
2

(met een samenvatting in het Nederlands)

Proefschrift

ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag
van de rector magnificus, prof. dr. G.J. van der Zwaan, ingevolge het besluit
Methodological improvements to ex-ante techno-economic modelling and van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op woensdag 6
uncertainty analysis of emerging CO2 capture technologies december 2017 des middags te 12.45 uur
Mijndert van der Spek, Utrecht University, Faculty of Geosciences, Department of

Innovation, Environmental, and Energy Sciences, Copernicus Institute of
Sustainable Development, Group Energy & Resources. door
Mijndert Willem van der Spek
ISBN: 978-90-8672-079-8 geboren op 1 april 1982 te Amersfoort
Print: Ridderprint

Cover design: James Jardine, DESIGN YOUR THESIS
Copyright ©2017, Mijndert van der Spek

15019 - vdSpek_BNW.indd 3 31-10-17 11:32
Promotoren: Prof. Dr. A.P.C. Faaij
~ Dedicated to all the people that work to make this
Prof. Dr. Ir. C.A. Ramírez Ramírez
world a better place ~

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Promotoren: Prof. Dr. A.P.C. Faaij
~ Dedicated to all the people that work to make this
Prof. Dr. Ir. C.A. Ramírez Ramírez
world a better place ~

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Table of contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS I
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. BACKGROUND 1
1.2. PROBLEM DESCRIPTION 4
1.3. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND QUESTIONS 9
1.4. SCIENTIFIC AND SOCIETAL RELEVANCE 10
1.5. READING GUIDE 11
1.6. REFERENCES 14
2. IMPROVING UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF PROCESS MODELS BY USING
PEDIGREE ANALYSIS. A CASE STUDY ON CO CAPTURE WITH
2
MONOETHANOLAMINE. 21
2.1. INTRODUCTION 22
2.1.1. BACKGROUND 22
2.1.2. DEFINITIONS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY 23
2.1.3. CURRENTLY USED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION METHODS IN (PROCESS) MODELLING 24
2.1.4. GOAL OF THIS PAPER 27
2.2. RESEARCH METHOD 27
2.2.1. CASE STUDY 27
2.2.2. MODELLING PROCEDURE AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 27
2.2.3. DATA VALIDATION 28
2.2.4. PEDIGREE ANALYSIS 29
2.2.5. ANALYSIS OF THE COMBINED VALIDATION AND PEDIGREE RESULTS 33
2.3. RESULTS 33
2.3.1. QUALITY EVALUATION OF THE STATE OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ON MEA CARBON
CAPTURE MODELLING 33
2.3.2. MODEL DESCRIPTION 39
2.3.3. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF SIMULATION MODEL 40
2.3.4. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF OUTPUT PARAMETERS 44
I

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Table of contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS I
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1.1. BACKGROUND 1
1.2. PROBLEM DESCRIPTION 4
1.3. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND QUESTIONS 9
1.4. SCIENTIFIC AND SOCIETAL RELEVANCE 10
1.5. READING GUIDE 11
1.6. REFERENCES 14
2. IMPROVING UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF PROCESS MODELS BY USING
PEDIGREE ANALYSIS. A CASE STUDY ON CO CAPTURE WITH
2
MONOETHANOLAMINE. 21
2.1. INTRODUCTION 22
2.1.1. BACKGROUND 22
2.1.2. DEFINITIONS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY 23
2.1.3. CURRENTLY USED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION METHODS IN (PROCESS) MODELLING 24
2.1.4. GOAL OF THIS PAPER 27
2.2. RESEARCH METHOD 27
2.2.1. CASE STUDY 27
2.2.2. MODELLING PROCEDURE AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 27
2.2.3. DATA VALIDATION 28
2.2.4. PEDIGREE ANALYSIS 29
2.2.5. ANALYSIS OF THE COMBINED VALIDATION AND PEDIGREE RESULTS 33
2.3. RESULTS 33
2.3.1. QUALITY EVALUATION OF THE STATE OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ON MEA CARBON
CAPTURE MODELLING 33
2.3.2. MODEL DESCRIPTION 39
2.3.3. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF SIMULATION MODEL 40
2.3.4. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF OUTPUT PARAMETERS 44
I

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2.4. DISCUSSION OF THE PEDIGREE APPROACH FOR PROCESS MODEL QUALITY REVIEW 47 4.2.3. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 123
2.4.1. PEDIGREE MATRIX DESIGN 48 4.2.4. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 131
2.4.2. WHICH DATA ITEMS TO SCORE? 48 4.3. CASE STUDY RESULTS 133
2.4.3. SCORING PROCEDURE 49 4.3.1. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 133
2.4.4. EXPERT SELECTION, GROUP SIZE, AND REPEATABILITY 49 4.3.2. CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES 134
2.5. CONCLUSIONS 50 4.3.3. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 138
2.6. APPENDICES 52 4.3.4. COMPARISON WITH OTHER COST STUDIES 141
2.7. REFERENCES 60 4.3.1. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 143
4.4. CONCLUSIONS 151
3. MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND PROCESS SIMULATION OF POSTCOMBUSTION 4.5. REFERENCES 153
CARBON CAPTURE TECHNOLOGY WITH AQUEOUS AMP/PZ SOLVENT. 65
5. CHALLENGES AND UNCERTAINTIES OF EX ANTE TECHNO-ECONOMIC
3.1. INTRODUCTION 66 ANALYSIS OF LOW TRL CO2 CAPTURE TECHNOLOGY: LESSONS FROM A CASE
3.2. STATE OF THE ART 67 STUDY OF AN NGCC WITH EXHAUST GAS RECYCLE AND ELECTRIC SWING
3.2.1. THERMODYNAMICS AND CO2 SOLUBILITY 67 ADSORPTION 159
3.2.2. CHEMISTRY, KINETICS, AND MASS TRANSFER 70
3.2.3. PILOT PLANT RESULTS 71 5.1. INTRODUCTION 160
3.2.4. PROCESS MODELLING STUDIES 72 5.2. GENERAL APPROACH 161
3.3. METHOD 73 5.3. TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION AND SCOPE 162
3.3.1. PROCESS MODELLING 73 5.3.1. TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION 162
3.3.2. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION 79 5.3.2. SYSTEM SCOPE 164
3.4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 82 5.4. REVIEW AND SELECTION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODELLING METHODS 165
3.4.1. MODEL IMPROVEMENT 82 5.4.1. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 165
3.4.2. SIMULATION OF COMMERCIAL SIZE POWER PLANT WITH CO2 CAPTURE 94 5.4.2. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 172
3.4.3. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF PROCESS MODEL 99 5.4.3. SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 180
3.5. CONCLUSIONS 102 5.5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 180
3.6. APPENDICES 104 5.5.1. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS 182
3.7. REFERENCES: 112 5.5.2. METHODOLOGICAL INSIGHTS ON FUTURE TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE PROJECTION 185
5.5.3. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 186
4. UNRAVELLING UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY IN EARLY STAGE TECHNO- 5.6. LESSONS AND CONCLUSIONS 190
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS OF CARBON CAPTURE TECHNOLOGIES 117 5.7. APPENDICES 194
5.8. REFERENCES 196

4.1. INTRODUCTION 118
4.2. METHODS 119
4.2.1. TECHNICAL DESIGN 120
4.2.2. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 121
II III

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2.4. DISCUSSION OF THE PEDIGREE APPROACH FOR PROCESS MODEL QUALITY REVIEW 47 4.2.3. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 123
2.4.1. PEDIGREE MATRIX DESIGN 48 4.2.4. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 131
2.4.2. WHICH DATA ITEMS TO SCORE? 48 4.3. CASE STUDY RESULTS 133
2.4.3. SCORING PROCEDURE 49 4.3.1. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 133
2.4.4. EXPERT SELECTION, GROUP SIZE, AND REPEATABILITY 49 4.3.2. CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES 134
2.5. CONCLUSIONS 50 4.3.3. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 138
2.6. APPENDICES 52 4.3.4. COMPARISON WITH OTHER COST STUDIES 141
2.7. REFERENCES 60 4.3.1. UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS 143
4.4. CONCLUSIONS 151
3. MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND PROCESS SIMULATION OF POSTCOMBUSTION 4.5. REFERENCES 153
CARBON CAPTURE TECHNOLOGY WITH AQUEOUS AMP/PZ SOLVENT. 65
5. CHALLENGES AND UNCERTAINTIES OF EX ANTE TECHNO-ECONOMIC
3.1. INTRODUCTION 66 ANALYSIS OF LOW TRL CO2 CAPTURE TECHNOLOGY: LESSONS FROM A CASE
3.2. STATE OF THE ART 67 STUDY OF AN NGCC WITH EXHAUST GAS RECYCLE AND ELECTRIC SWING
3.2.1. THERMODYNAMICS AND CO2 SOLUBILITY 67 ADSORPTION 159
3.2.2. CHEMISTRY, KINETICS, AND MASS TRANSFER 70
3.2.3. PILOT PLANT RESULTS 71 5.1. INTRODUCTION 160
3.2.4. PROCESS MODELLING STUDIES 72 5.2. GENERAL APPROACH 161
3.3. METHOD 73 5.3. TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION AND SCOPE 162
3.3.1. PROCESS MODELLING 73 5.3.1. TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION 162
3.3.2. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION 79 5.3.2. SYSTEM SCOPE 164
3.4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 82 5.4. REVIEW AND SELECTION OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODELLING METHODS 165
3.4.1. MODEL IMPROVEMENT 82 5.4.1. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 165
3.4.2. SIMULATION OF COMMERCIAL SIZE POWER PLANT WITH CO2 CAPTURE 94 5.4.2. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 172
3.4.3. UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION OF PROCESS MODEL 99 5.4.3. SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 180
3.5. CONCLUSIONS 102 5.5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 180
3.6. APPENDICES 104 5.5.1. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS 182
3.7. REFERENCES: 112 5.5.2. METHODOLOGICAL INSIGHTS ON FUTURE TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE PROJECTION 185
5.5.3. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 186
4. UNRAVELLING UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY IN EARLY STAGE TECHNO- 5.6. LESSONS AND CONCLUSIONS 190
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS OF CARBON CAPTURE TECHNOLOGIES 117 5.7. APPENDICES 194
5.8. REFERENCES 196

4.1. INTRODUCTION 118
4.2. METHODS 119
4.2.1. TECHNICAL DESIGN 120
4.2.2. TECHNICAL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 121
II III

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6. TECHNO-ECONOMIC COMPARISON OF COMBINED CYCLE GAS TURBINES 6.12. REFERENCES 250
WITH ADVANCED MEMBRANE CONFIGURATION AND MEA SOLVENT AT PART
LOAD CONDITIONS. 203 7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 255
6.1. INTRODUCTION 205 7.1. RESEARCH CONTEXT/BACKGROUND 255
6.2. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK 206 7.2. GOAL AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS 256
6.3. DISPATCH PROFILES 207 7.3. SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS 256
6.4. TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION 210 7.4. MAIN FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS 265
6.4.1. CCGT WITH MEMBRANE CONFIGURATION 210 7.5. NOTIONS ON DATA LIMITATIONS 276
6.4.2. CCGT WITH MEA CONFIGURATION 212 7.6. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 278
6.5. PROCESS MODELLING 214 7.7. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 279
6.5.1. CCGT MODELLING 216 7.8. REFERENCES 281
6.5.2. MEMBRANE MODELLING 217
6.5.3. MEA MODELLING 219
8. SAMENVATTING EN CONCLUSIES 283
6.6. PART LOAD OPERATION STRATEGIES 219
6.6.1. CCGT 219
8.1. ACHTERGROND VAN HET ONDERZOEK 283
6.6.2. MEMBRANE PLANT 220
8.2. ONDERZOEKSDOEL 284
6.6.3. MEA PLANT 221
8.3. BELANGRIJKSTE BEVINDINGEN EN CONCLUSIES 285
6.7. COST ESTIMATION 223
8.4. BEPERKINGEN AAN BESCHIKBARE DATA 298
6.7.1. CAPITAL COST ESTIMATES 223
8.5. AANBEVELINGEN VOOR VERDER ONDERZOEK 299
6.7.2. OPERATIONAL COST ESTIMATES 225
8.6. BELEIDSAANBEVELINGEN 301
6.7.3. LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY 227
8.7. REFERENTIES 302
6.8. RESULTS 227
6.8.1. POWER PLANT BEHAVIOUR OVER ITS LOADING RANGE 227
9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 305
6.8.2. CAPTURE TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE 230
6.8.3. CAPITAL AND OPERATIONAL COST ESTIMATES 236
6.8.4. TECHNO-ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS USING THE PART LOAD APPROACH 239 10. CURRICULUM VITAE 309
6.9. DISCUSSION 241
6.9.1. EFFECT OF EGR ON GT PERFORMANCE 241
6.9.2. IMPACT OF LP STEAM QUALITY FOR REBOILER 242
6.9.3. COMPARISON TO OTHER STUDIES 242
6.9.4. IMPACT OF MEMBRANE COSTS 242
6.9.5. IMPACT OF DISPATCH PROFILE 244
6.9.6. OPERABILITY OF THE SEGR-MEMBRANE CONFIGURATION 244
6.10. CONCLUSION 246
6.11. APPENDIX 248
IV V

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