Meeting Gorbachev’s Challenge: How to Build Down the NATO-Warsaw Pact Confrontation

463 Pages·1989·42.525 MB·English

by  Jonathan Dean (auth.)

MEETING GORBACHEV'S CHALLENGE
Also by Jonathan Dean
WATERSHED IN EUROPE: Dismantling the East-West
Military Confrontation
Meeting Gorbachev's
Challenge
How to Build Down the NATO-Warsaw Pact
Confrontation
Jonathan Dean
Arms Control Advisor
Union of Concerned Scientists
M
MACMILLAN
© Union of Concerned Scientists 1989
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First published 1989
Published by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD
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and London
Companies and representatives
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Dean, Jonathan
Meeting Gorbachev's challenge: how to build down the
NATO-Warsaw Pact confrontation.
l. North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries.
Military power compared with military power of the
Warsaw Pact countries 2. Warsaw Pact countries.
Military power compared with military power of North
Atlantic Treaty Organization countries
I. Title II. Union of Concerned Scientists
355'.03332'1821
ISBN 978-0-333-51878-6 ISBN 978-1-349-20462-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-20462
This book, too, is dedicated to the two to whom
I owe most, my father, Kenneth Dean, and my
wife, Theodora-and also to the men and women
on both sides who in coming years will be called on
to find answers to the problems described here
Contents
List of Appendices Vlll
List of Maps IX
Foreword xi
Beginning the Build-Down in Europe: Negotiating the
I.N.F. Treaty
2 Military and Political Consequences of the I.N.F.
Treaty 18
3 Starting Point: The Current NATO/Warsaw Pact
Force Relationship 36
4 The New Thinking about Armed Forces in West and
East: Can It Help in East/West Negotiations? 64
5 Lessons from Failure: Vienna One and What We Can
Learn from It 87
6 The C.D.E. Parallel Track: Success of the Stockholm
Conference 105
7 The Two Alliances Ready Themselves 126
8 Negotiators' Headaches: Substantive Problems of
Force Reductions 166
9 Essential First Steps: Data Exchange, Early Warning,
and Constraint Measures 215
10 How to Cut NATO and Warsaw Pact Forces 249
11 Verifying Deep Cuts 272
12 The Way Ahead: The European Confrontation in a
Global Framework 300
Appendices 325
Notes and References 422
Index 427
Vll
List of Appendices
NATO and Warsaw Pact Forces in Europe-Data Published
by the Two Alliances 325
II NATO and Warsaw Pact Forces in Europe-Data Published
by the International Institute of Strategic Studies 328
III NATO and Warsaw Pact Air Forces in Central Europe 332
IV Warsaw Pact and NATO Ground Forces in the Atlantic to
Urals Area 336
V Soviet and Eastern European Unilateral Reductions 339
VI C.S.C.E. Documents: The Stockholm Document; the Agreed
Mandate for the C.F.E. Force-Reduction Talks and for
the C.D.E.-2 Talks on Confidence- and Security-Building
Measures 342
VII The Warsaw Pact's July, 1988, and March, 1989, Position
Papers on C.F.E., and Its October, 1988, and March, 1989,
Position Papers on C.D.E.-2 366
VIII NATO's December, 1988, and March, 1989, Position Papers
on C.F.E. and C.D.E.-2 383
IX Reductions Under the NATO and Warsaw Pact Proposals of
1989 393
X NATO and Warsaw Pact Reductions Proposed in This Book 403
XI Possible Savings from United States Force Reductions 420
viii
List of Maps
I. The Atlantic-to-Urals area x
2. Warsaw Pact Ground Forces Which May Be Involved
in Conflict in Central Europe 42
3. Participants in the C.D.E. Negotiations on Confidence-
and Security-Building Measures in Europe 107
IX
Map I The Atlantic-to-Urals area
LEGEND
[[] NATO
niiiiiJ
Warsaw Pact
D
Neutral
Source: John M. Collins, U.S.-Soviet Military Balance 1980--1985 (New
York: Pergamon Press, 1985) p. 123.