Table Of ContentCHINA AND THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY
National Champions, Industrial Policy
and the Big Business Revolution
Peter Nolan
Advances in Political Science: An International Series
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William Lafferty, Theodore Lowi and Carole Pateman
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HEALTH POLICY REFORM, NATIONAL VARIATIONS AND GLOBALIZATION
Asher Arian, David Nachmias and Ruth Amir
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CONDITIONS OF DEMOCRACY IN EUROPE, 1919–39
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Klaus von Beyme
PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACY
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Ofer Feldman
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Luigi Graziano
LOBBYING, PLURALISM AND DEMOCRACY
Justin Greenwood and Henry Jacek (editors)
ORGANIZED BUSINESS AND THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER
Asha Gupta
BEYOND PRIVATIZATION
Saadia Touval
MEDIATION IN THE YUGOSLAV WARS
The Critical Years, 1990–95
Mino Vianello and Gwen Moore (editors)
GENDERING ELITES
Economic and Political Leadership in 27 Industrialised Societies
Advances in Political Science
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Mediation in the
Yugoslav Wars
The Critical Years, 1990–95
Saadia Touval
© Saadia Touval 2002
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Touval, Saadia.
Mediation in the Yugoslav wars ; the critical years, 1990–95 /
Saadia Touval.
p. cm. — (Advances in political science)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0–333–96503–5
1. Yugoslav War, 1991–1995—Diplomatic history. I. Title.
II. Advances in political science (New York, N. Y.)
DR1313.7.D58 T678 2001
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2001034804
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Contents
Chronology vii
Preface xi
Maps xiii
1 Introduction 1
2 Failed Attempts to Prevent War 15
3 The Entry ofMediators 39
4 The Ceasefire in Slovenia 49
5 The Search for a Comprehensive Settlement 61
6 The Ceasefire in Croatia 87
7 Collective Mediation in Bosnia, 1992±94 103
8 US Policy and the Making ofthe Dayton Accords 135
9 Priorities 171
Notes and References 185
Index 205
v
Chronology
1918 Establishment ofthe Kingdom ofSerbs, Croats and Slovenes
(name later changed to Yugoslavia).
1941±44 Yugoslavia occupied by Nazi Germany and its allies.
1980 Tito dies.
1987 MiloÏsevic becomes leader ofSerbia.
1989 Berlin Wall falls.
1990 First free multiparty elections held in the republics. National-
ists rise to power. Growing support for secession in Slovenia
and Croatia.
1990±91 Crisis in the Gulf.
1990 US proposal to discuss Yugoslavia at NATO Council opposed
by Europeans in November.
1991
4 April The EC Troika visits Belgrade.
21 June US Secretary ofState James Baker visits Belgrade for last-min-
ute attempt to prevent the violent disintegration ofYugosla-
via.
25 June Croatia and Slovenia proclaim independence.
27 June War begins in Slovenia and Croatia.
27 June European Council meeting in Luxembourg dispatches the
Troika to Yugoslavia.
28 June Yugoslav parties agree to a ceasefire.
30 June Troika again visits Belgrade. Yugoslav leaders readopt cease-
fire.
7 July The Brioni Declaration, mediated by the EC Troika, ends the
war in Slovenia.
18 July The Yugoslav federal presidency decides to withdraw federal
forces from Slovenia.
19 August Coup attempt against Gorbachev. Disintegration ofthe Soviet
Union accelerates.
27 August EC foreign ministers decide to convene a peace conference at
the Hague.
7 September The Hague peace conference begins under the chairmanship
ofLord Carrington.
25 September First UN Security Council meeting on Yugoslavia.
4 October Carrington presents the outlines ofhis peace plan to Yugoslav
leaders.
8 October Cyrus Vance appointed as UN secretary-general's representa-
tive.
vii
viii Chronology
23 November Vance mediates fifteenth ceasefire agreement for Croatia: `The
Vance Plan'.
7 December The Badinter Commission proclaims that Yugoslavia is in the
process ofdissolution.
11 December European leaders meet at Maastricht to conclude negotiations
establishing the European Union.
17 December EC foreign ministers decide to recognise Yugoslav republics
upon the meeting of certain criteria. All republics desiring
independence invited to apply by 23 December.
1992
15 January EC foreign ministers formally recognise the independence of
Croatia and Slovenia.
21 February Ceasefire in Croatia found to be holding. Security Council
decides to dispatch peacekeeping force.
23 February All three Bosnian parties accept first version of Cutileiro Plan.
25 February Izetbegovic withdraws his acceptance ofthe Cutileiro Plan.
29 February Bosnia holds referendum on independence. Serbs boycott
referendum.
March US and EC agree to recognise Bosnia's independence in April.
18 March The three Bosnian parties accept revised Cutileiro Plan. Croats
and Muslims soon renege.
7 April EC, US and others recognise Bosnia's independence. War
begins.
26 August Carrington resigns. London Conference meets. ICFY, headed
by Vance and Owen, established to help settle all Yugoslav
disputes.
October First version ofthe Vance±Owen Plan presented to the parties.
1993
30 January Muslims join Serbs and Croats in accepting the constitutional
principles ofthe Vance±Owen Plan.
25 March Muslims and Croats accept full plan; Serbs refuse.
3 May Stoltenberg becomes UN representative on ICFY, replacing
Vance.
6 May Bosnian Serb Assembly finally rejects Vance±Owen Plan, defy-
ing MiloÏsevicÂ's plea to accept.
August All three Bosnian parties accept principles ofthe ICFY's Invin-
cible Plan.
20 September Three Bosnian leaders meet on the Invincible but fail to sign
the plan.
7 November Germany and France launch the EU Plan for a Bosnian settle-
ment.
1994
January EU Plan dropped by its sponsors.
February The US, assisted by Germany, mediates Muslim±Croat agree-
ment establishing the Bosnian Federation.
April Contact Group established.
Chronology ix
6 July Contact Group Plan presented to the parties.
19 July Croat±Muslim Bosnian Federation accepts the Contact Group
Plan; Serbs' ambiguous response taken as rejection.
1995
May US resumes negotiations with MiloÏsevicÂ. Croatia occupies
Serb-held western Slavonia in Croatia. NATO airstrikes against
the Bosnian Serbs, who respond by taking hundreds of
UNPROFOR prisoners and using them as `human shields'.
June Bildt becomes EU representative on ICFY, replacing Owen.
July Bosnian Serb army occupies UN-proclaimed safe areas and
massacres thousands ofMuslims at Srebrenica.
23 July Croatia and Bosnian Muslims begin joint military operation
against Serbs.
August US launches a new diplomatic initiative, taking the lead in the
negotiations. Croatia occupies additional Serb-populated area
in Croatia, `cleanses' area ofSerbs.
28 August Start ofNATO airstrikes against Bosnian Serbs after explosion
ofanother mortar shell in Sarajevo.
30 August Holbrooke in Belgrade. Bosnian Serbs agree to authorise
MiloÏsevic to negotiate on their behalf.
8 September Holbrooke brokers Geneva agreement between the three
parties' foreign ministers on the principles for a settlement.
25 September Holbrooke mediates New York agreement between the three
parties' foreign ministers on additional principles.
14 October Ceasefire comes into effect in Bosnia.
1 November Dayton conference begins.
20 November Dayton Accords signed.
Preface
This book arose out of my long-term interest in the mediation of
international conflicts. While mediation is usually looked at from the
peacemaking perspective, I argue that mediation by states is also a
form of intervention, motivated by broad strategic objectives. An
understanding of international mediation therefore, requires an
examination of both perspectives. I have tried to contribute to our
understanding of mediation within the broader context of inter-
national politics through case studies as well as conceptual±theoretical
writings. Previous cases I have written about concern the mediation
of African territorial disputes and the Arab±Israeli conflict. When
fighting erupted in Yugoslavia in 1991 I turned my attention to
third parties' attempts to stop that war.
It was more than pure intellectual curiosity that drew my atten-
tion. I was born in 1932 in what was then the Kingdom ofYugoslavia.
Even in the first year of primary school in Novi Sad I was acutely
aware ofthe ethnic±national distinctions between people, and sensed
the latent tension between them. I knew my classmates not only by
their names, but also by their national identity ± Serb, Croat, Hun-
garian, German and Jewish.
From 1991, when the war erupted, several major powers attempted
to mediate between the parties, sometimes acting alone and some-
times jointly with others, under the aegis of international organisa-
tions. Unfortunately it took a very long time to end the fighting. And
in Bosnia we witnessed the unusual process of the West combining
military action with mediation. When trying to understand the diffi-
culties encountered during that mediation effort I focused on the
political considerations and the relationships among the mediating
entities ± states and intergovernmental organisations. I assumed that
(besides the obvious obstacles posed by the policies ofthe disputing
parties) an examination of the complex motives of the mediating
governments and the tangled relationships between them would
significantly help to explain the disappointing results of the media-
tion efforts.
xi
