Measuring the Predictive Ability of Multilevel Regression Models

293 Pages·2013·1.5 MB·English

KU Leuven
Group Biomedical Sciences
Faculty of Medicine
Departement of Public Health, L-Biostat
Measuring the Predictive Ability of Multilevel
Regression Models: Application to the Binary
and Survival Framework
Robin VAN OIRBEEK
Doctoral Thesis in Biomedical Sciences
Leuven, 2013

KU Leuven
Group Biomedical Sciences
Faculty of Medicine
Departement of Public Health, L-Biostat
Measuring the Predictive Ability of Multilevel
Regression Models: Application to the Binary
and Survival Framework
Robin VAN OIRBEEK
Promoter: Prof. Dr. Emmanuel Lesaffre
Co-Promoter: Prof. Dr. Geert Verbeke
Chair: Prof. Dr. Kris Dierickx
Secretary: Prof. Dr. Francis Tuerlinckx
Jury members: Prof. Dr. An Carbonez
Prof. Dr. Luc Duchateau
Prof. Dr. Thomas Alexander Gerds
Leuven, 21.06.2013
Doctoral Thesis in Biomedical Sciences
(cid:13)c 2013. GroepBiomedischeWetenschappen,CampusGasthuisbergO&N2,Herestraat49,bus700,
3000Leuven,Belgium.
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ISBN
D/2013/06/21
To Sylvia

Acknowledgements
Adoctoralthesisneverisaone-manshow. Iwouldthereforeliketothankeveryone
who co-starred in this adventure.
First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. Emmanuel Lesaffre. Not
only you showed me the ropes, but you also gave me a lot of intellectual freedom,
allowing to add my personal flavor to this work. Thanks to this, I could evolve
fromabio-engineerwithstatisticalinteresttoafullgrownstatistician. Ialsotake
thisopportunitytothankmyco-supervisorProf.GeertVerbekeformentoringand
supporting me over the past 6 years. Thanks a lot to both of you!
Further,Iwanttoexpressmygratitudetowardsmyguidancecommittee(Prof.An
Carbonez and Prof. Francis Tuerlinckx), my external jury members (Prof. Luc
Duchateau and Prof. Thomas Alexander Gerds) and Prof. Kris Dierickx for their
time and constructive criticism which greatly enhanced the quality of this work.
My special thanks goes out to Prof. Luc Duchateau and Prof. Thomas Alexander
Gerds for having invited me to the University of Ghent and the University of
Copenhagen, respectively and for their interest in my work. Thank you Thomas
that I could present my work in front of all the fine members of your department!
I am also greatly endebted to Dr. Cees Kreulen for handing me over his amalgam
data set. This rich data set was used to illustrate the developments for survival
data of this doctoral thesis.
Iwouldalsoliketothankallmycolleaguesand‘roommates’forthepleasantwork
environment and friendly atmosphere over the years. Extra thanks goes out to
Kirsten and Hilde for their excellent administrative support and to Kris for his
excellent technical support. Thank you Steffen for having included me in some of
yourprojects. IwouldalsoliketoshowmygratitudetothelateProf.PaulDarius
andalltheotherfineteachersoftheMasterofStatisticsprogramme(KULeuven)
tohavesparkedmyinterestforstatisticsandtohaveintroducedmetothedomain.
My special thanks is reserved to all my family and friends who shaped me and
vii
viii Acknowledgements
helped me to deal with life’s challenges over the years. Indirectly this doctoral
thesis is influenced by each and everyone of you.
Finally, I would like to thank my wife Sylvia. Words can do no justice to what
you mean to me. Your encouragement and unconditional love are the motor of
my joy and happiness. You are simply the best thing that ever happened to me.
I therefore dedicate this doctoral thesis to you, my love.
Robin Van Oirbeek
Leuven, June 2013
List of Papers
The majority of this thesis is based on the following original publications:
Chapter 4: Van Oirbeek, R. and Lesaffre, E. (2013). Exploring the pre-
dictive ability of the frailty survival model with the Brier score. Submitted.
Chapter 5: Van Oirbeek, R. and Lesaffre, E. (2010). An application of
Harrell’s C-index to PH frailty models. Statistics in Medicine, 29, 3160–3171.
Chapter 6 Van Oirbeek, R. and Lesaffre, E. (2013). Investigating the dis-
criminatory ability of the frailty survival model. Submitted.
Chapter 7: Van Oirbeek, R. and Lesaffre, E. (2012). Assessing the predic-
tive ability of a multilevel binary regression model. Computational Statistics &
Data Analysis, 56, 1966–1980.
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x ListofPapers
The author also contributed to the following original publications:
Jacobs, B., De Roock, W., Piessevaux, H., Van Oirbeek, R., Biesmans,
B., De Schutter, J., Fieuws, S., Vandesompele, J., Peeters, M., Van
Laethem, J. L., Humblet, Y., Pe´nault-Llorca, F., De Hertogh, G.,
Laurent-Puig, P., Van Cutsem, E. and Tejpar, S. (2009). Amphiregulin
and epiregulin mRNA expression in primary tumors predicts outcome in metas-
tatic colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 27,
5068–5074.
Pinna Puissant, S., Gauthier, J. M. and Van Oirbeek, R. (2010). States
of inhibition and/or excitation of depressive symptoms in inpatient adolescents.
Proceedings of The 12th Biennial Conference of the European Association for Re-
search on Adolescence, Vilnius, Lituania, 33–36.
Pinna Puissant, S., Gauthier, J. M. and Van Oirbeek, R. (2011). The
contribution of the social rank and attachment theory to depression in a non cli-
nical sample of adolescents. The Spanish Journal of Psychology, 14, 832–842.
Van Oirbeek, R. and Lesaffre, E. (2011). Measuring the Brier score for
frailty models. Proceedings of the 26th International Workshop on Statistical Mo-
delling, Val`encia, Spain, 632–635.
Fevery, J., Henckaerts, L., Van Oirbeek, R., Vermeire, S., Rutgeerts,
P., Nevens, F.andVanSteenbergen, W.(2012). Malignanciesandmortality
in 200 patients with primary sclerosering cholangitis: a long-term single-centre
study. Liver International, 32, 214–222.