Mathletics - How Gamblers, Managers, and Fans Use Mathematics in Sports

609 Pages·2022·17.77 MB·english

by  Wayne L. Winston

MATHLETICS

MATHLETICS
HOW GAMBLERS, MANA GE RS,
AND FANS USE
MATHE MATICS IN SPORTS
2ND EDITION
WAYNE L. WINSTON, SCOTT NESTLER,
AND KONSTANTINOS PELECHRINIS
PPRRIINNCCEE TTOONN UUNNIIVVEERRSSIITTYY PPRREESSSS •• PPRRIINNCCEE TTOONN && OOXXFFOORRDD
Copyright © 2022 by Prince ton University Press
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ISBN 9780691177625
ISBN (e- book) 9780691189291
Library of Congress Control Number: 2021949227
British Library Cataloging- in- Publication Data is available
Editorial: Susannah Shoemaker, Diana Gillooly, and Kristen Hop
Production Editorial: Nathan Carr
Text Design and Cover: Lauren Smith
Production: Jacquie Poirier
Copyeditor: Bhisham Bherwani
This book has been composed in Adobe Text Pro, Bee Four, and Courier New
Printed on acid-f ree paper. ∞
Printed in the United States of Amer i ca
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
FFRROOMM KKOOSSTTAASS::
To my wife, who puts up with my long hours of work,
and to my dad, who introduced me to the world of sports
but left this world sooner than he should have.
FFRROOMM WWAAYYNNEE::
To Vivian, Greg, and Jen. Thanks for putting up with me!
FFRROOMM SSCCOOTTTT::
To “Vegas Howie,” who shared his love of sports
and numbers with so many people.
“In God we trust; all others must bring data.”
—W. Edwards Deming
CONTENTS
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Abbreviations xvii
PPAARRTT II BBAASSEEBBAALLLL
1. Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem 3
2. Who Had a Better Year: Mike Trout or Kris Bryant? 12
3. Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights 18
4. Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation 31
5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers, Forecasting F uture
Pitcher Per for mance, and an Introduction to Statcast 44
6. Baseball Decision Making 60
7. Evaluating Fielders 73
8. Win Probability Added (WPA) 84
9. Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Player Salaries 92
10. Park Factors 101
11. Streakiness in Sports 105
12. The Platoon Effect 124
13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter? 127
viii Contents
14. Pitch Count, Pitcher Effectiveness, and PITCHf/x Data 133
15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 today? 139
16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56- Game Hitting Streak
the Greatest Sports Rec ord of All Time? 142
17. Projecting Major League Per for mance 151
PPAARRTT IIII FFOOOOTTBBAALLLL
18. What Makes NFL Teams Win? 159
19. Who’s Better: Brady or Rod gers? 164
20. Football States and Values 170
21. Football Decision Making 101 178
22. If Passing Is Better than Running, Why Don’t Teams
Always Pass? 186
23. Should We Go for a One- Point or a
Two- Point Conversion? 195
24. To Give Up the Ball Is Better than to Receive:
The Case of College Football Overtime 207
25. Has the NFL Fi nally Gotten the OT Rules Right? 211
26. How Valuable Are NFL Draft Picks? 222
27. Player Tracking Data in the NFL 229
PPAARRTT IIIIII BBAASSKKEETTBBAALLLL
28. Basketball Statistics 101: The Four Factor Model 249
29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players 259
30. Adjusted +/− Player Ratings 265
31. ESPN RPM and FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR Ratings 282
Contents ix
32. NBA Lineup Analy sis 289
33. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups 296
34. NBA Salaries and the Value of a Draft Pick 303
35. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced? 307
36. Pick- n- Rolling to Win, the Death of Post Ups and Isos 313
37. SportVU, Second Spectrum, and the Spatial
Basketball Data Revolution 321
38. In- Game Basketball Decision Making 341
PPAARRTT IIVV OOTTHHEERR SSPPOORRTTSS
39. Soccer Analytics 355
40. Hockey Analytics 373
41. Volleyball Analytics 385
42. Golf Analytics 391
43. Analytics and Cyber Athletes: The Era of e- Sports 398
PPAARRTT VV SSPPOORRTTSS GGAAMMBBLLIINNGG
44. Sports Gambling 101 409
45. Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker 420
46. Rating Sports Teams 423
47. From Point Ratings to Probabilities 447
48. The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) 464
49. Optimal Money Management:
The Kelley Growth Criterion 468
50. Calcuttas 474