Table Of ContentMatching Economic Migration with Labour
Market Needs
Contents
Matching Economic
Editorial: Turning the corner
Executive summary Migration with Labour
Chapter 1. D emographic trends, labour market needs and migration
by François Héran Market Needs
Chapter 2. D emographic change and the future of the labour force in the EU27, other OECD countries and
selected large emerging economies
by Jason Gagnon
Chapter 3. C urrent and future skills of the workforce: The demography of educational attainment and the role
of migration
by Josep Mestres
Chapter 4. T he demography of occupational change and skill use among immigrants and the native-born
by Georges Lemaître
Chapter 5. I mmigrant skills, their measurement, use and return: A review of literature
by Ana Damas de Matos
Chapter 6. T he qualifications of immigrants and their value in the labour market: A comparison of Europe and
the United States
by Ana Damas de Matos and Thomas Liebig M
a
Chapter 7. T he international portability of migrant human capital: Canadian experiences tc
h
by Arthur Sweetman in
g
Chapter 8. M igrants’ skills: Use, mismatch and labour market outcomes – A first exploration of the International E
c
Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) o
n
by Sara Bonfanti and Theodora Xenogiani o
m
Chapter 9. P rojected labour market imbalances in Europe: Policy challenges in meeting the Europe 2020 ic
employment targets M
by Cedefop’s Skills Analysis Team under the supervision of Pascaline Descy ig
r
a
t
Chapter 10. O ccupational labour shortages: Underlying concepts and their role in US migration policy io
n
by Burt S. Barnow w
Chapter 11. M igration in Europe: An overview of results from the 2008 immigrant module with implications for ith
labour migration L
a
by Georges Lemaître b
o
u
r
M
a
r
k
e
t
N
e
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Matching Economic
Migration with Labour
Market Needs
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FOREWORD –
Foreword
The European Commission and the OECD have carried out a joint project over
three years on “Matching economic migration with labour market needs”. The key
questions behind this project are as follows: What policies and practices are needed to
ensure that migration and free movement contribute to meeting the labour market
shortages that are expected to arise over the short-to-medium term? How can we make a
better use of migrants’ skills? What are the lessons learnt from non-European
OECD countries, particularly in the management of labour migration?
Some of these questions, notably those concerning free movement of workers were
addressed, in a first publication Free Movement of Workers and Labour Market Adjustment.
Recent Experiences from OECD Countries and the European Union (OECD, 2012).
Further policy questions are discussed in the present publication, which gathers the
papers presented at the “OECD-EU dialogue on mobility and international migration:
matching economic migration with labour market needs” (Brussels, 24-25 February 2014),
a conference jointly organised by the European Commission and the OECD. This
conference brought together more than 150 policy makers, experts, and observers from
international organisations, as well as representatives of the social partners.
This publication provides new evidence on the role that international migration has
played in Europe and in selected other OECD countries over the past decade in terms of
labour force (Chapter 1 by F. Héran and Chapter 2 by J. Gagnon); educational attainment
(Chapter 3 by J. Mestres); and occupational changes (Chapter 4 by G. Lemaître).
It analyses the availability and use of migrants’ skills based on an in-depth literature
review (Chapter 5 by A. Damas de Matos); as well as new data analyses for Europe and
the United States (Chapter 6 by A. Damas de Matos and T. Liebig), Canada (Chapter 7 by
A. Sweetman) and the OECD as a whole, taking advantage of the International Survey of
Adult Skills – PIAAC (Chapter 8 by S. Bonfanti and T. Xenogiani). Finally, several
chapters discuss the potential role of international migration in meeting current and future
labour market needs in Europe (Chapter 9 by the Cedefop), in the United States
(Chapter 10 by B. Barnow) and in the European Union (Chapter 11 by G. Lemaître).
This work has shown that although migration can make an important contribution to
labour force growth, its role in counterbalancing the effects of population ageing will
depend on the capacity of countries to match labour needs to migrants’ characteristics. In
this regard, more needs to be done to better use migrants’ skills and to adapt labour
migration management systems to employers’ needs.
MATCHING ECONOMIC MIGRATION WITH LABOUR MARKET NEEDS © OECD/EUROPEAN UNION 2014
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TABLE OF CONTENTS –
Table of contents
Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 15
Editorial: Turning the corner .................................................................................................... 17
Part I. Demographic context
Chapter 1. Demographic trends, labour market needs and migration ............................... 23
by François Héran
1.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 24
1.2. Conclusion: Learning from the past – Conciliating economic needs and human rights ... 33
Notes ......................................................................................................................................... 34
References ................................................................................................................................ 35
Chapter 2. Demographic change and the future of the labour force in the EU27,
other OECD countries and selected large emerging economies ......................................... 37
by Jason Gagnon
2.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 38
2.2. Main findings ..................................................................................................................... 38
2.3. Long-term global demographic trends ............................................................................... 39
2.4. Recent trends in working-age population in the EU27 and other OECD countries .......... 41
2.5. The labour force: Demographic vs. cohort effects ............................................................ 46
2.6. Beyond participation: Skills and geographical mismatches .............................................. 50
2.7. What role does international migration play? .................................................................... 51
2.8. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 56
Notes ......................................................................................................................................... 57
References ................................................................................................................................ 58
Annex 2.A1. Supplementary figures ........................................................................................ 62
Chapter 3. Current and future skills of the workforce: The demography
of educational attainment and the role of migration ........................................................... 67
by Josep Mestres
3.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 68
3.2. Educational attainment of the labour force and the role of migration ............................... 68
3.3. Projections of the labour force by educational attainment for 2020 .................................. 79
3.4. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 94
Notes ......................................................................................................................................... 96
References ................................................................................................................................ 97
Annex 3.A1. Methodology for estimating the components of demographic change ............... 98
Annex 3.A2. Methodology for estimating the projected educational attainment
of the workforce in 2020 ........................................................................................................ 100
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– TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 4. The demography of occupational change and skill use among immigrants
and the native-born .............................................................................................................. 111
by Georges Lemaître
4.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 112
4.2. Main findings ................................................................................................................... 112
4.3. The demography of occupational change ........................................................................ 114
4.4. The extent of occupational change over the decade 2000-10 .......................................... 116
4.5. Occupational change and intra- and extra-European migration ...................................... 130
4.6. Occupational change: The gender dimension .................................................................. 134
4.7. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 138
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 141
References .............................................................................................................................. 142
Annex 4.A1. Methodology for estimating the components of demographic change ............. 144
Annex 4.A2. Occupational change and overqualification ...................................................... 146
Part II. Migrant skills
Chapter 5. Immigrant skills, their measurement, use and return:
A review of literature ................................................................................................................. 153
by Ana Damas de Matos
5.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 154
5.2. Immigrants’ educational attainment and skills ................................................................ 154
5.3. Returns to education and skills in the host country labour market .................................. 161
5.4. Explanations for the differences in returns to immigrant and native skills ..................... 167
5.5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 173
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 176
References .............................................................................................................................. 177
Annex 5.A1. Educational attainment ...................................................................................... 183
Annex 5.A2. Explanatory factors of the difference in returns to education
between immigrants and natives ............................................................................................. 185
Chapter 6. The qualifications of immigrants and their value in the labour market:
A comparison of Europe and the United States ................................................................. 187
by Ana Damas de Matos and Thomas Liebig
6.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 188
6.2. The qualifications of immigrants ..................................................................................... 189
6.3. The value of immigrants’ qualifications in the labour market ......................................... 201
6.4. Selected issues in transferring qualifications from the country of origin
to the host country .................................................................................................................. 209
6.5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 213
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 214
References .............................................................................................................................. 216
Annex.6.A1. Supplementary tables and figures ..................................................................... 217
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TABLE OF CONTENTS –
Chapter 7. The international portability of migrant human capital:
Canadian experiences ........................................................................................................... 229
by Arthur Sweetman
7.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 230
7.2. The Canadian context ...................................................................................................... 231
7.3. Aspects of skill portability central to labour market outcomes ....................................... 235
7.4. Interactions between skills affect portability ................................................................... 241
7.5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 242
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 243
References .............................................................................................................................. 246
Chapter 8. Migrants’ skills: Use, mismatch and labour market outcomes – A first
exploration of the International Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) ..................................... 249
by Sara Bonfanti and Theodora Xenogiani
8.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 250
8.2. Description of the data ..................................................................................................... 251
8.3. Migrants’ skills and how they compare with those of natives ......................................... 254
8.4. The labour market outcomes of migrants ........................................................................ 268
8.5. The wages of migrants ..................................................................................................... 288
8.6. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 300
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 303
References .............................................................................................................................. 305
Annex 8.A1. Further descriptives and analysis ...................................................................... 309
Part III. Labour shortages and migration
Chapter 9. Projected labour market imbalances in Europe: Policy challenges
in meeting the Europe 2020 employment targets ............................................................... 315
by Cedefop’s Skills Analysis Team under the supervision of Pascaline Descy
9.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 316
9.2. Employment rate gaps in EU member states ................................................................... 317
9.3. Meeting the EU2020 employment target ......................................................................... 318
9.4. Labour imbalances and the need for activation in EU member states ............................. 322
9.5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 326
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 328
References .............................................................................................................................. 329
Annex 9.A1. The Cedefop pan-European forecasting model of skill supply
and skill demand ..................................................................................................................... 330
Chapter 10. Occupational labour shortages: Underlying concepts and their role
in US migration policy .......................................................................................................... 335
by Burt S. Barnow
10.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 336
10.2. Occupational labour shortages in theory and practice ................................................... 336
10.3. Using occupational shortage data for immigration and temporary visas ....................... 341
10.4. Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 345
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 347
References .............................................................................................................................. 348
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– TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 11. Migration in Europe: An overview of results from the 2008 immigrant
module with implications for labour migration ................................................................. 349
by Georges Lemaître
11.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 350
11.2. The data source .............................................................................................................. 350
11.3. International migration by reason for migrating ............................................................ 352
11.4. The evolution of the distribution of reasons for migrating by years of residence ......... 354
11.5. Employment rates by category of entry and their evolution with years of residence .... 356
11.6. Occupation skill levels of recent immigrants and overqualification ............................. 358
11.7. Sources of skills ............................................................................................................. 361
11.8. Job-changing among recent international migrants ....................................................... 365
11.9. A recapitulation of results from the module .................................................................. 366
11.10. Policy implications ...................................................................................................... 368
11.11. Increasing retention ..................................................................................................... 371
11.12. Increasing the volume of highly skilled migration ...................................................... 372
11.13. Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 376
Notes ....................................................................................................................................... 378
References .............................................................................................................................. 379
Figures
Figure 1.1. Percentage of immigrants (“1st generation”) and children of immigrant(s)
(“2nd generation”) in selected countries ................................................................................... 25
Figure 1.2. The weight of family and humanitarian migration to France ................................. 30
Figure 1.3. Differences in employment rates between foreign-born and native-born in
OECD countries (men and women), 2001-12 .......................................................................... 31
Figure 1.4. Proportion of population “with a migration background” (first + second
generations) in German Länder ................................................................................................ 32
Figure 2.1. Total population by major area, 1950-2100 ........................................................... 40
Figure 2.2. Average annual rate of population change, 1950-2100 .......................................... 40
Figure 2.3. Median age of the population, 1950-2100 ............................................................. 41
Figure 2.4. Population aged 15-24, 1950-2100 ........................................................................ 41
Figure 2.5. Population pyramids, 2010 vs. 2025 ...................................................................... 42
Figure 2.6. Variation in the working-age population between 2010 and 2020
in OECD countries and selected emerging economies ............................................................. 45
Figure 2.7. Labour force participation (15-64) by gender in selected OECD countries
and the EU27, 1983-2011 ......................................................................................................... 46
Figure 2.8. Evolution of average number of years of schooling of the adult population
in OECD countries, 1970, 2010, 2060 ...................................................................................... 50
Figure 2.9. Components of total population growth in OECD countries, 1960-2020 .............. 51
Figure 2.10. Age structure of the population aged 15 and over in OECD countries
by gender and place of birth, 2005/06 ...................................................................................... 52
Figure 2.11. Old-age dependency ratio for total and native-born population in selected
OECD countries, 2010 .............................................................................................................. 52
Figure 2.12. Share of high-educated among immigrants and native-born, aged 15
and over, by duration of stay in selected OECD countries, 2005/06 ........................................ 53
Figure 2.13. Permanent inflows into selected OECD countries, by category of entry, 2010 ... 54
Figure 2.14. Participation rates (15-64) by gender and place of birth in selected
OECD countries, 2012 .............................................................................................................. 54
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TABLE OF CONTENTS –
Figure 2.A1.1. Old-age support ratios [number of people of working age (20-64)
per person of pension age 65+)]: Historical and projected values, 1950-2050 ........................ 62
Figure 2.A1.2. Components of total population growth in OECD countries, 1960-2011,
per 1 000 inhabitants ................................................................................................................. 63
Figure 2.A1.3. Age distribution of recent and total foreign-born population
in the European Union and the United States ........................................................................... 64
Figure 2.A1.4. Participation rates by gender and place of birth in selected OECD
countries, 2012 ......................................................................................................................... 65
Figure 3.1. Changes in the educational attainment of the labour force, by source, 2000-10 .... 75
Figure 3.2a. Changes in the demographic composition of the tertiary-educated labour force,
2000-10 ............................................................................................................................................ 77
Figure 3.2b. Changes in the demographic composition of the upper-secondary educated
labour force, 2000-10 ................................................................................................................ 77
Figure 3.2c. Changes in the demographic composition of the less than upper-secondary
educated labour force, 2000-10 ................................................................................................. 78
Figure 3.3. Share of tertiary-educated labour force in 2010 and under projection
Scenarios 1 and 2 in 2020 ......................................................................................................... 83
Figure 3.4. Changes in the educational attainment of the labour force, by source,
2000-10 and 2010-20 ................................................................................................................ 84
Figure 3.5a. Composition of the change in the tertiary-educated labour force,
by demographic group and by projection scenario, 2010-20 .................................................... 90
Figure 3.5b. Composition of the change in the labour force with upper-secondary
attainment, by demographic group, 2010-20 ............................................................................ 91
Figure 3.5c. Composition of the change in the labour force with less than
upper-secondary education, by demographic group, 2010-20 .................................................. 92
Figure 3.6. Contribution of migration to new entries in the tertiary-educated labour force,
2000-10 and 2010-20 ................................................................................................................ 93
Figure 4.1. Total change in the distribution of employment by occupation, 2000-10 ............ 118
Figure 4.2. Demographic components of net occupational change by occupational
growth quintile, 2000-10 ........................................................................................................ 120
Figure 4.3a. Contribution of different demographic groups to occupational growth,
average over European countries, 2000-10 ............................................................................ 123
Figure 4.3b. Contribution of various demographic groups to occupational growth,
United States, 2000-10 ........................................................................................................... 124
Figure 4.4. Differences in the distribution of occupational skills of workers entering
or changing jobs by skill level, new immigrants compared to young resident workers,
2000-10 ................................................................................................................................... 127
Figure 4.5a. Skill level composition of occupational entries or exits, by demographic
group, 2000-10 ....................................................................................................................... 128
Figure 4.5b. Demographic composition of occupational entries or exits, by skill level,
2000-10 ................................................................................................................................... 129
Figure 4.6. Share of high-skilled occupations in total occupational entries, migrants and
new entrants, 2010-11 ............................................................................................................. 133
Figure 4.7a. New entrants in professional occupations as a percentage of all new entrants,
by sex in 2000-10 ................................................................................................................... 136
Figure 4.7b. New entrants in technician and associate professional occupations
as a percentage of all new entrants, by sex in 2000-10 .......................................................... 136
Figure 4.8. Share of women in occupational entries in strongly declining and strongly
growing occupations, resident new entrants, 2000-10 ............................................................ 137
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