Table Of Content“Be so good they can’t ignore you.”
~ Steve Martin
First Edition
Mastering
Poker Math
Become a Feared Shark
in Texas No-Limit Hold’em
Chuck Clayton
Mastering Poker Math
Become a Feared Shark
In Texas No-Limit Hold’em
Copyright © 2018
Charles W. Clayton
All Rights Reserved
All Rights Reserved. No portion of this book (including figures,
tables, charts and graphs) may be copied, reproduced, transmitted,
duplicated, stored, or used in any form or by any means including
electronic, graphic, mechanical (including but not limited to)
photocopying, digitizing, recording, scanning, web distribution,
information storage or any other manner whatsoever without express
written approval from the author. The exception is by reviewers who
may quote brief excerpts in connection with articles and reviews.
Terms of Use: No information contained in this book should be
considered as definitive advice. The author assumes no liability or
responsibility for damage, financial loss or other loss to you or other
individuals from any use of this information, ideas, or instruction
contained in the content in this book. Reliance on the information
contained in this material is solely at the reader's own risk.
The views and ideas expressed in this book are solely those of the
author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
ISBN: 978-1-7323869-1-4 (E-book)
Table of Contents
Preface: A New Breed of Poker Player
Introduction: Mastering Poker Math
Section I Foundational Poker Math Skills
Chapter 1 Decision Making with Imperfect Information
Chapter 2 Probabilities, Fractions, Odds, and Counting
Your Outs
Chapter 3 The Rule of 2 and 4
Chapter 4 Key Percentages and Probabilities
Chapter 5 The Importance of Equity
Chapter 6 Expected Value (EV)
Section II Mastering the Math
Chapter 7 The Core Math
Chapter 8 Selecting Great Starting Hands
Chapter 9 The Power of Betting
Section III Mastering the Math Applications
Chapter 10 Chip Management Skills
Chapter 11 Why It’s Smart Math to Bluff!
Chapter 12 The Power and Problems with Aces
Chapter 13 The Power and Problems with Pocket Pairs
Chapter 14 Decision Tree Analysis
Chapter 15 The Explosive Energy of All-in!
Chapter 16 Capitalizing on Patterns
Chapter 17 Math and the Phases of a Tournament
Section IV Becoming a New Breed of Poker Player
Chapter 18 Game Theory Optimal
Chapter 19 Strengthening Your Skills
Chapter 20 Tracking Your Results
Chapter 21 Next Steps
Key Poker Books, Glossary of Terms, Figures, Tables,
Charts and Graphs, Quotable Quotes & Other Resources
About Chuck Clayton
Acknowledgements
I am very fortunate to have some great friends and colleagues who
graciously contributed their time to review and make suggested edits
to this book. I owe them all a huge THANK YOU!
To my close friend Marcia Horn who did an awesome job of
reviewing and editing this work. Marcia tapped into her amazing
education, experience, and attention to detail. The book is much
better for these efforts. Thanks Marcia!
To my close friend Jim Gates who was a great sounding board
throughout the writing of this book. His questions, thoughts, insights
and encouragement were extremely helpful. Thanks Jim!
To my close friend Craig Mason who reviewed some of the key
math equations in the book and gave me insights I hadn’t thought of,
but needed. Thanks Craig!
To my cousin and close friend Larry Clayton who provided some
great edits and thoughts to improve the work. Thanks Larry!
To Emanuel Saba from Saba Graphix who did an amazing job
polishing up the cover and inside images of the book. He is
incredibly easy to work with and dedicated to his profession. Thanks
Emanuel!
To my close friend Rosanne Mackenzie for some great edits to the
book. Thanks Rosanne!
To my colleagues and friends from the National Speakers
Association. Thanks to Tom Britton and Scott James for some
excellent edits and suggestions. Thanks to Kent Cummins for the
Writers SIG where I received some great ideas for the book. Thanks
Tom, Scott and Kent!
To Andrea Martindill and Nick Sullivant for their fine review of
portions of the book. Thanks Andrea and Nick!
Preface:
A New Breed of Poker Player
“Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” ~ Stephen
Hawking
Excelling in Texas No-Limit Hold’em is all about using as many of
your advantages as possible to defeat opponents. Those
advantages have changed over time. In this section we will review
major events in the evolution of Texas No-Limit Hold’em and what is
required today to become A New Breed of Poker Player .
The Early Days of Poker
Mystery shrouds when Texas No-Limit Hold’em was invented,
however it is thought to have started in the early 1900’s in Robstown
Texas.
It gained traction when the early pioneers such as Doyle Brunson,
Amarillo Slim, Johnny Moss and Bobby Baldwin played it. These
men had to learn the game relying on their knowledge of human
behavior, intuition, tells, basic math skills, and table experience.
There were no books, no internet, no courses, no training, no
YouTube video’s, no hole cams, and no easy access to play. At
times these trail blazers would drive long distances just to get into a
game. Many of those games were in the back rooms of shady
places. Poker players were looked down upon. There was little
respect for them in regular society.
When they won money, they would still have to avoid being robbed
or beaten. Their sheer passion and force of will helped them to
become excellent players. It was truly a time of the Wild West in the
poker world.
The first World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event was in 1970. It
only had seven entrants. Johnny Moss was the winner. Poker has
grown exponentially since.
Books
One of the first major books on poker was Doyle Brunson’s Super
System published in 1978. It had many different games including
Texas No-Limit Hold’em. It gave away some of the secrets of the
poker greats.
Other seminal works were David Sklansky’s book: The Theory of
Poker which came out in 1987 and Mike Caro’s: Caro’s Book of
Poker Tells in 1999.
Over time what started as a trickle turned into a waterfall of books as
more and more pros exposed their secrets. The floodgates of how
to play excellent poker is out in print and accessible to anyone with
$20 in his/her pocket, a few hours of spare time, and a hunger to
learn. But it didn’t stop there.
Hole Cams and RFID Technology
Hole Cams
A toy designer named Henry Orenstein (with >100 patents including
the Transformers toy line) invented the hole cam that displays a
player’s hole cards. Hole cams became popular in 1999. Watching
people play poker before this was as exciting as watching paint dry.
Seeing someone’s hole cards coupled with engaging personalities
and the romance of being in control of your own destiny made the
game a great deal more fun to watch. Armchair poker players came
in by the droves. Many of them started playing themselves.
RFID Technology
In recent years a new hole card technology called radio-frequency
identification (RFID) is being used at some live poker productions.
Instead of hole cams, RFID uses special playing cards with radio-
frequency identification chips known as “tags.” RFID readers under
certain spots on the poker table read the card tags. The readers
send the information to tournament or TV production computers.
The Internet and Smart Phones
The Internet
Free online poker started in the late 1990s. Planet Poker was the
first online cardroom with real money games.
Over time, access and ease of use websites increased. People
came in massive numbers to learn about this fascinating game and
what the excitement was all about. Free access to virtual games
and free trials brought in even more players.
Today, a large number of players invest hundreds (sometimes
thousands) of hours playing per year. Many play multiple tables
simultaneously.
Beyond gaming websites there are an amazing number of useful
resources on the web such as:
Poker Blogs
Social Media
Poker Websites
Poker Podcasts
Poker Magazines
Poker Training sites
Poker Stars Websites
Smart Phones
In recent years smart phones have become another major portal to
poker websites, podcasts, blogs, magazines, training sites and social
media. And, there are some incredible apps such as the WSOP
App, the Poker Heat App and the PokerCruncher App.
The Poker Landscape
The internet has changed the poker landscape forever. All these
portals mean that people can get huge amounts of poker experience
and knowledge in a much shorter time than in the past. Even though
it isn’t face to face, the learning curve has been slashed dramatically.
The Chris Moneymaker Effect
The Chris Moneymaker story is common poker lore. He played in a
satellite event on an online poker site and won a seat at the 2003
World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. Moneymaker hadn’t
played in a live Texas No-Limit Hold’em tournament before the main
event.
Chris Moneymaker was an accountant by trade with a knack
for the game and the numbers. He won the main event over
a field of 839 players and took the first-place prize of $2.5
million. Word spread like wildfire about this huge underdog
winning. It was a true to life Rocky type story.
After Moneymaker’s victory a huge number of players entered
the game. They were searching for fame and fortune by
playing the elusive and fickle game of poker.
The 839 players at the main event more than tripled to 2,576
players in 2004. The entrants ramped up to over 8,700
players by 2006.
The explosion in Texas No-Limit Hold’em interest after 2003
helped coin the phrase: The Chris Moneymaker Effect.
It was a major inflection point in the participants at the main event (a
bellwether of player interest).
Note: An inflection point is when the direction of a curve changes
dramatically.
Poker books, hole cams, RFID Technology, the internet & cell
phones and the Chris Moneymaker Effect have all contributed to the
explosion of interest in poker. However, in 2006 the winds of change
started blowing through the poker landscape. These changes were
significant.
