Market Dynamics and Financial Services in Kenya's Arid Lands

176 Pages·2013·3.44 MB·English

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Humanitarian Aid
3 and Civil Protection GOVERNMENT OF KENYA
Market Dynamics and
Financial Services
in Kenya’s Arid Lands
MAY 2013
Humanitarian Aid
GOVERNMENT OF KENYA
and Civil Protection
ii
Market Dynamics and Financial Services in Kenya’s Arid Lands
iii
Executive Summary
Functioning and integrated markets are key Livelihood and gender
prerequisites for using a market-based approach
The study covered five livelihood zones in the
to providing food assistance. For cash or voucher
arid lands: grasslands pastoral, Northeastern
transfers to work, people must be able to buy
pastoral, Northern pastoral, Western agro-
what they need in their local markets and the
pastoral, and Northwestern pastoral. All of these
markets must have the capacity to respond to
are characterised by very low population density,
increased demand through increased supply
water scarcity, and low availability of arable land.
rather than through increased prices. An in-
Agricultural production other than livestock is very
depth understanding of the structure, conduct and
low. On the other hand, with 24 million hectares
performance of the markets in the arid lands is
of land suitable for livestock production, the arid
therefore crucial. The present study endeavours to
lands are home to 60 percent of Kenya’s livestock,
provide a comprehensive picture of how markets
a resource valued at Ksh 173.4 billion. Livelihoods
function in the arid lands and the extent to which
are based on pastoralism and the generation of
they may be able to respond to increased demand
income through formal or informal labour and trade,
for food, even during shocks. Its overall objective
allowing the purchase of food through markets.
is to fill knowledge gaps regarding the market
Significant differences exist among the livelihood
systems, as well as to explore the feasibility of
zones and one important aspect to consider when
delivery mechanisms in the arid lands.
planning a transfer to cash-based programmes
is the predominance of polygamous households
The study comprises three components; livelihood
(between 55 percent in the northwestern and 22
and gender, market and supply, and financial
percent in the northern livelihood zone); and the
services. For each component, specialised teams
extent to which the specific Somali Hawala system
applied a combination of methodologies as
provides traders with access to (informal) financial
summarised below. Field work was carried out from
services.
25th August – 14th September, 2012.
In the areas visited, migration
Methodology Livelihood Market Financial
among residents is limited. Most
and gender and services
respondents indicated that about
supply
75-100 percent of the population
Literature review X X X
is sedentary, while the sedentary
Secondary data review X X X population in a few areas is between
Primary quantitative 1651 50–75 percent.
data collection traders
Primary qualitative data 61 FGD 112 key 56 FGD Cash is widely used by both men and
collection informants 18 key women. Most households depend to
informants a large extent on markets due to
very limited agricultural possibilities.
Data analysis and cross- X X
Any effect (positive or negative)
reference with existing
that market-based interventions
VAM, livelihood,
may have on local markets will have
household economy
direct impacts in particular on those
and WFP beneficiary
households that are neither wealthy
information
nor so poor that they are included
Interviews at central X
as beneficiaries of food or other
level
assistance programmes.
iv
Both men and women frequent the market centres, ■ Transfers involving formal bank accounts may
the vast majority coming from distances of between limit access to cash for women, if national ID
0-30 km. Women frequent markets mostly to buy requirements cannot be met or replaced by
food, and to engage in petty trade. Men go there other identification.
to sell or buy livestock, to participate in the wazee ■ Women have equal access to mobile-phone
baraza (council of elders), or to socialise. The transfers.
wazee baraza is an established institution that can
■ Replacing in-kind food assistance with cash
be a good vehicle for communicating with men in
transfers can offer both advantages and
the arid lands.
disadvantages for beneficiaries in terms of
access to traditional safety nets.
At household level, most major decisions are taken
jointly. However, men have the final say in “macro”
Markets in the arid lands
decisions on how household income is spent, which
child follows an education, the purchase of larger
Kenya is a food-deficit country, relying on imports to
assets, and the question of whether to start a
meet requirement gaps. Per-capita food availability
business. By contrast, women are more in charge
has reportedly declined by more than 10 percent over
of daily life decisions such as food purchases, health
the last three decades. Most Kenyans rely on markets
care for children, etc.
for some or all of their food needs. Three main market
corridors were identified in the arid lands:
With respect to spending priorities when it comes
■ Northwestern corridor: Nairobi-Kitale-Lodwar-
to both actual available income and potential cash
Kakuma-Lokichogio, linking with South Sudan.
transfers, women strongly prioritise the purchase
■ North-central corridor: Nairobi-Meru/Nakuru-
of food and, to a much lesser extent, clothing,
Isiolo/Samburu-Marsabit-Moyale, link with
education and health. Men also prioritise food, but
Ethiopia; and
to a lesser degree. Alcohol or miraa (qat), livestock,
education and clothing are also key priorities for ■ Northeastern corridor: Nairobi-Thika-Garissa-
men, in that order. Wajir-Mandera, link with Somalia.
Both women and men own and use mobile phones There are no significant differences in the conditions
and access informal financial services. In cases and behaviour of markets between these transport
where having a national ID is needed to access corridors. This is due to the fact that the arid lands
formal financial services, this forms a greater are homogeneous in terms of population density,
barrier? (limitation) for women than for men. infrastructure, market and supply systems,
seasonal fluctuations, constraints to trade, traders’
Access to regular cash transfers increases a person’s access to services, capacity to meet increases in
access to informal credit, e.g. from traders. On the demand, etc. Both the main and remote markets
other hand, beneficiaries of cash transfers attract situated along the main transport highways benefit
greater jealousy from non-beneficiaries than if they from significantly better road conditions, modes
received food. There is a widespread assumption and frequency of transport than those situated
that there would be less sharing of cash transfers off the main routes. Four types of markets were
than of in-kind provisions – which is perceived as identified: 1) Nairobi; 2) hub markets in the central
both positive and negative. region; 3) main markets in the arid lands, and; 4)
remote markets in the arid lands. The hubs in the
Conclusions central producing region are large and act as main
■ Women would be the natural recipients of suppliers to the northern region and other parts
cash/vouchers to meet food needs, as they are of the country. Main markets include the district
normally in charge of family food purchases headquarters and other large markets along the
from the market. transport corridors. They are formal (local authority
controlled) and act as redistributors for the remote
■ Women normally access markets as far away as
markets. For each main market, a number of
30 km from their home – double the maximum
remote markets were identified, which do not act
WFP distance for food distributions
Market Dynamics and Financial Services in Kenya’s Arid Lands
v
as suppliers for any other location. The flow of
commodities between these markets is shown in
Hub Primary
the illustration. The hub markets and Nairobi are Market markets
the main suppliers to the largest main markets in
the arid lands which subsequently supply other
main markets along the corridors and also the District Secondary
Headquarters markets
remote markets, with district headquarters being
the central supply sources.
Four market chains were identified for the study:
Main Tertiary
1) grains and beans; 2) fruits and vegetables; 3) (supply) markets
processed food (rice, sugar, maize meal, wheat flour, markets
pasta, etc.), and; 4) livestock, meat and dairy, which
all follow the supply chains described above. Maize
Remote Remote
is by far the most important staple commodity, not
(final) (final)
only in the arid lands, but in the entire country. markets markets
The role of wholesaling in remote locations is
mostly confined to the trade in cereals, beans
and processed commodities. It is often controlled Food availability in local markets is highly seasonal
by wholesalers from outside the districts, who and heavily dependent on transport conditions.
sometimes also act as transporters. Their influence As a result, the choice of a food basket
on food supplies in the remote locations can from the local markets that meet household
undermine local traders’ response capacity and - macronutrients - and diet diversity
increase the risk of collusion, hoarding and price requirements at an affordable cost can be a
increases. Moreover, this structure likely limits the challenge. Maize prices are seasonal with lows
benefits of trade for the local economy. observed generally between November and May in
all corridors. Maize price volatility is lower in market
Competition levels decrease with the remoteness hubs and district headquarters in all corridors,
of the market, which weakens the supply network compared to other markets on and off the corridors.
and traders’ response capacity, while increasing Seasonal factors such as road conditions and
their vulnerability to supply shocks. Traders in the transport availability tend to increase the instability
arid lands are by and large price takers, i.e., they and price volatility of remote markets and markets
are not influential enough, nor do they have the off the corridors. As a result, using market-based
negotiating power to influence the price of the foods intervention in these areas to improve food access
traded. They are consequently vulnerable to price of vulnerable households can be a challenge without
shocks, and likely to pass on food price increases first improving infrastructure.
and transaction costs to consumers.
The maize price integration analysis suggests
Food is more expensive in remote markets than in that hub markets are integrated with the district
the main ones, and more expensive in the latter headquarter markets, and the latter are, to lesser
than in the district headquarters. Likewise, with degree, integrated with some remote markets on
the exception of the district headquarters, prices the corridors. Price signals are to some extent
are also higher off the main transport corridors transmitted from district headquarters to remote
than along these routes. Food availability in markets on the main corridors. Maize prices in
local markets is generally influenced by seasonal hub markets and district headquarters on the
production cycles and undermined by transport main corridors are weakly integrated with the
conditions. Markets in the arid lands off the main main markets and the remote markets off the
transport routes are more weakly integrated with corridors. Markets along the main corridors are
their respective supply sources than markets along better integrated with each other than with other
the main highways. markets off the corridors. In order to mitigate
vi
price and supply risks associated with weak Expansion of cash-based interventions to other
market integration, beneficiaries of cash-based areas should be gradual. Decision to expand to
interventions should be targeted in the vicinity of other locations should follow the development
large markets along the main transport corridors, of road infrastructure, especially in relation to
notwithstanding issues related to the operational supply sources. In this context, close monitoring
feasibility of such interventions. of market trends and infrastructure development is
fundamental.
The most common factors cited by traders as ■ From a cost-efficiency perspective, consideration
influencing the resupply time are price and should be given to replacing some of the
availability of commodities at origin (hub or district commodities in the in-kind food basket with a
headquarters), distance, time and transaction cash and voucher equivalent, while maintaining
costs from the source to the destination markets. in-kind provision of others. Of the present WFP
Traders’ resupply times and schedules increase with food basket, cereals (maize) and pulses (beans)
the remoteness of markets off the main transport are more easily replaceable than vegetable oil.
corridors. ■ Seasonal considerations for cash-based
interventions should also consider a combination
Road conditions and transport capacity are by far the of factors including the food security situation,
most important trade constraints in the arid lands. the seasonal food production cycles, the
Correspondingly, the quality of available transport specific livelihood systems, the main periods
infrastructure is key in developing markets in these during which labour and income are mostly
regions. Inadequate infrastructure pushes up prices generated, and the relative cost-efficiency /
for staple foods in the arid lands compared to the effectiveness of the interventions vis-a-vis
rest of the country, and reduces traders’ capacity relief food distribution. When possible, it is
to scale up supply, especially in remote markets. recommended to plan conditional activities that
Accordingly, improving access in general and road actually support the improvement of market
infrastructure in particular are the most effective infrastructure and functioning: strengthening
interventions in developing markets. market-information systems, investing in
market-place infrastructure, ensuring security
Under present conditions, prices on average for mobile markets, improving access to credit,
increase by about 1.3 percent per additional etc.
transport hour from the hub market to the district
headquarters. Similarly, prices increase by about
Financial services
1.8 percent for transportation between the district
headquarters and remote markets off the corridor.
Payment systems in Kenya operate through two
main platforms: mobile phone -based payments
Limited access to credit can undermine traders’
supported by agencies, and bank accounts,
capacity to efficiently respond to sudden increases
supported through bank branches and bank
in demand. Access to credit in the arid lands is very
agencies. Over the last five years the growth of
limited and largely confined to informal sources.
M-PESA, combined with the launch of agency
This is common to all markets, including the district
banking for banks, as well as for regulated deposit-
headquarters, though in these large locations
taking microfinance institutions, has revolutionised
formal credit is a relatively more common means
payments in Kenya. Today more than 18 million
of credit.
Kenyans access mobile payment services through
M-PESA (mainly) or one of the other providers.
Conclusions There are more than 45,000 mobile payment
■ In view of planning for cash-based agents countrywide, and more than 12,000 bank
interventions and from a market perspective, it agents. The payment system continues to develop.
is recommended to target locations with higher The payments revolution is beginning to influence
market response potential, i.e. the district the arid lands in a more significant manner as of
headquarters and large markets of similar size 2012. Most market centres now have connectivity
and characteristics. with at least one mobile network. With growing
Market Dynamics and Financial Services in Kenya’s Arid Lands
vii
connectivity, mobile phone ownership and the the arid lands. In turn, an e-payment environment
number of mobile money agents also have increased could also benefit considerably from WFP cash
significantly. transfers being made through e-payments, adding
considerable scale as well as new users to the
Banking systems have evolved rapidly as well. Most system. An important indirect benefit of electronic
market centres visited by the research team had WFP cash (or voucher) transfers could thus consist
banking agents. The likelihood of further banking in strengthening this environment, which – at least
system developments in the arid lands is very in the medium-term – is a precondition to economic
high, driven by three factors in particular: (1) the development in the arid lands.
establishment of new administrative units at county
level, with all counties having their own budgets; (2) Transaction size is one important potential hindrance
the growing understanding of value chains operating for moving toward an e-payment environment in
in arid lands; and (3) infrastructure developments the North. Many arid lands residents make small
associated with improving communications to daily food or airtime purchases, dependant on
South Sudan and Ethiopia, and not least in relation their cash flow. In situations where people make
to mineral extraction and power generation. The many small-value transactions, ‘cash is king’ and
combination of signal coverage and the evolution a transition toward an e-payment environment is
of supportive banking infrastructure increases the more difficult, as many beneficiaries cash out the
potential for using payment systems to support full amount of an electronic transfer immediately
cash transfers in the arid lands. rather than making transfers from their e-account.
Cash-transfer programmes in Kenya are evolving There is a strong concentration of financial services
rapidly. Among them: the Government of Kenya’s in major population centres, which are separated
cash transfer programmes (including the Hunger by vast distances. In addition, concentrations of
Safety Net Programme) and WFP’s cash-for-asset services exist near the borders of Ethiopia and
programme in seven semi-arid districts. Each has Somalia and particularly in Garissa and Marsabit.
its advantages and disadvantages, depending on Cash-transfer agents are concentrated in areas with
the exact purpose and the location of the transfer connectivity. In areas with poor or no connectivity,
recipient. residents would need to travel long distances to
access cash-transfer services. Many agents lack
The situation is dynamic, since network coverage capacity to hold large amounts of cash, and find it
and mobile phone ownership are expanding rapidly difficult to replenish their floats (electronic values),
in the arid lands. as banks are located far from their trading centres.
This can be addressed by increasing agents’
Security is a long-term issue in northern Kenya. capacity, by transferring electronic vouchers
While this may change over time, particularly with instead of cash, or by encouraging beneficiaries
the discovery of oil in Turkana and construction of and traders to use electronic payment for goods.
roads to Ethiopia and South Sudan, it is unlikely
to change rapidly. This means that cash is limited The arid lands region has seen the emergence of
in the north, and moving cash is expensive. The a number of formal financial institutions over the
less cash handling is involved, the lower are risks past five years. However, many of the respondents
of leakage, and the lower are transaction costs, in and communities in general still do not use them.
particular costs of liquidity. Many people still prefer using informal financial
service mechanisms such as shopkeepers, merry-
The above findings are altogether encouraging go-rounds and livestock. The reasons for this
with respect to the probability of an e-payment preference include ease of access and, in the case of
environment developing in the north. Such an livestock, the opportunity to obtain decent returns.
environment not only increases the feasibility of
providing cash transfers to WFP beneficiaries by Between 2006 and 2009, the share of people having
significantly reducing transaction costs, but reduces? received any money transfers in the arid lands
(CUT: and) the problem of low cash presence in increased from 11-60 percent. A number of factors
viii
are decisive in considering whether or not to use ■ Significant operating challenges still exist
available money transfer services. These include for agents. These include security, liquidity
the risk, the cost, the speed and the convenience management, periodic demand for services,
of the potential money transfer. and network downtime. Any transition to cash-
or voucher-based interventions should take into
Mobile phone ownership increased by 80 percent account such operating challenges by providing
between 2006 and 2009, boosting the share sufficient lead time and ensuring that agents
of respondents owning a mobile phone from receive support and backup.
10.3 percent to 18.4 percent. Findings from the ■ It is important to keep cash circulating within
qualitative survey show ownership accelerated the the arid lands communities, to reduce costs
following three years, with more than half of those (of liquidity, security, etc), and to promote
surveyed owning mobile phones by 2012 electronic payments at individual level and,
more significantly, at the level of traders.
Opportunities exist for financial institutions to
■ Individual use of financial services is still
develop products that will help people accumulate
predominantly informal. Clients may benefit
money for seasonal expenses. This can be done by
from basic financial education and familiarisation
opening channels like bank agents, as residents’
with financial institutions.
income is small and they are unwilling to travel
■ There are seasonal needs for credit to meet
to major towns where bank branches are located.
peaks of expenditure typically driven by school
Livestock traders would need credit in March to
fees, medical expenses and festivals. This is
purchase livestock. Retail traders would also need
also likely to create significant liquidity peaks
credit in to stock their businesses, because of high
for agents.
sales during the month of Ramadan.
■ Encouraging the use of financial services
There is still limited awareness of the services and includes educating actual and potential clients,
how they can be relevant for low-income users. building accessible financial systems, and
Accessibility of financial services is increasing, but building trust in these systems.
it is still a significant issue for customers. People ■ There is a general move toward the use of
are still learning to trust the new mechanisms. national identity cards; however, the level of
This means educating actual and potential clients adoption/acquisition of national ID cards is
is important, and should be built into delivery low in some communities, and alternatives are
mechanisms. Building access to sustainable services required for non-Kenyan citizens.
needs to be carefully considered, especially where
■ Signal coverage reaches only around the major
there are limited sources of liquidity in an area.
trading centres. New payment guidelines
Establishing trust in the mechanisms is likely to
require the use of online transactions. Payment
be important in encouraging the use of payment
system options in remote communities are
mechanisms. Such mechanisms include training
more limited. Possibilities include voucher
clients, monitoring agents, and quickly resolving
programmes, satellite access for agents, and
customer problems.
existing food distribution programmes.
Conclusions
Overall recommendations
■ Connectivity, followed by availability and use
of M-PESA, is rapidly expanding in and around derived from the study
trading centres. Bank infrastructure expanded
Based on the findings and conclusions of the three
significantly over the past five years, and is
study components, one joint set of recommendations
likely to improve over time in major centres.
has been formulated.
■ The distribution of agents – whether bank or
1. When considering cash-based interventions,
M-PESA – varies, and needs to be considered when
priority should be given to areas and markets
making choices. However, the WFP programme
where market risks are low and most
by itself has the potential to encourage the
manageable (in particular low price volatility,
development of new agency channels.
Market Dynamics and Financial Services in Kenya’s Arid Lands
ix
stronger market integration, better road transition to cash and vouchers. In particular,
connectivity, higher supply capacity) and that includes changes in local market
where financial services are available. prices, bottlenecks in food availability,
This is the case in district headquarters and potential conflicts within households
and a number of selected markets on the and communities.
transport corridors. 8. A transition to a particular cash transfer should
2. When considering replacing in-kind food be preceded and accompanied by intensive
provisions with cash or voucher transfers, communication with communities and
the possibility of replacing some of the households, including both men and women, as
commodities foreseen in the food basket, well as traders. Where possible and adequate
while maintaining in-kind provision of others, for the focus group in question, established
based on a cost-efficiency analysis should be structures such as wazee baraza could be used.
considered. Of the present WFP food basket,
cereals (maize) and pulses (beans) appear The study also proposes four recommendations to
to be more easily replaceable than vegetable advocate for the Government of Kenya to :
oil, for example. ■ Continue and accelerate the improvement of
3. When considering market-based interventions, road infrastructure as the all-decisive factor
the transfer value needs to be adjusted to in further strengthening markets and economic
normal seasonal price fluctuations, taking development in the arid lands.
into account cost efficiency. This is particularly ■ Strengthen systematic and regular price
important during the lean season (July – data collection with significant geographical
September). coverage.
4. Cash or voucher transfers should be considered ■ Further encourage increased signal coverage.
only for beneficiaries living no more than
■ Take the lead in sharing strategic information
30 kilometres away from the market, which
and increasingly linking the different safety
corresponds to the 0-30 kilometres range that
nets existing and under development.
people report presently covering to reach the
market.
The map below illustrates the areas and markets
5. For a potential cash or voucher transfer,
which fulfil minimum conditions for a transition
electronic rather than physical solutions
to cash or voucher transfers based on the criteria
are preferable, as this will reduce transaction
established (markets on the main transport
costs, including the cost of liquidity, the time
corridors, availability of financial services, and
beneficiaries have to spend for collection of the
connectivity). Those with green circles would be
cash and security risks.
the first priority areas, and those with yellow circles
6. Decisions on transfer mechanisms should would be the second priority ones.
build on assessments and lessons
learned with respect to existing and piloted The shaded circles around these markets indicate
mechanisms; and regular reviews of the the 30-km radius mentioned in recommendation
dynamic development going on in the arid 4, above. Yellow circles indicate final WFP food
lands. Important aspects to consider include distribution points. Based on the Long Rains
the experience of using different transfer assessment caseload in August and December
programmes; the rapid development of 2012 (885,000 people requiring food assistance
technical solutions and network coverage in the Arid Lands), the approximate number of
in the arid lands; and, for instance, the beneficiaries that could – provided additional
requirement for good information and operational prerequisites are in place – transition
training and the ability to swiftly resolve to cash or voucher transfers amounts to about
operational problems. 150,000-200,000.
7. It is important to ensure reliable and
timely monitoring and reporting on any The results of the study, its main conclusions
development in terms of identified risks of a and recommendations, were presented at a