Table Of ContentManaging Critical Infrastructure Risks
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Managing Critical Infrastructure
Risks
Decision Tools and Applications
for Port Security
Edited by
Igor Linkov
INTERTOX, Inc.
Brookline, Massachusetts, USA
Richard J. Wenning
ENVIRON International Corporation
San Francisco, California USA
Gregory A. Kiker
University of Florida at Gainesville, USA
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Based on papers presented at the NATO Advanced Research
Workshop on Management Tools for Port Security,
Critical Infrastructure and Sustainability,
Venice, Italy March 2006
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-1-4020-6383-1 (PB)
ISBN 978-1-4020-6384-4 (HB)
ISBN 978-1-4020-6385-5 (e-book)
Published by Springer,
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PREFACE
At the beginning of each year, there is a deluge of top-10 lists on just
about every subject you can imagine. A top-10 list of biggest news stories,
best-selling books, most popular music and movies, richest companies, and
best places to visit or live. It seems everyone has his or her own top-10 list,
reflecting, perhaps, differences in regional, national, and cultural values.
Companies and governments most often tend to focus their top-10 lists
on economic priorities, or priorities related to national defense, security,
public health, and new infrastructure. This year, 2007, was no exception.
Yet, increasingly, we see governments, private organizations, and companies
advocating a new type of prioritization.
The complexity of societal change requires an enhanced capacity for
s cientific assessment, monitoring, and emergency response. New uncertain
and multifaceted risks and stressors as well as globalization and public
pressure for decision transparency drive the need for a new framework for
thinking about prioritization. This framework needs to reach beyond the
realms of economics, world trade, and corporate management to include the
environment, stakeholders, public preferences, and social goals. Moreover,
corporations and individuals are not only interested in generic 10-best lists;
they want lists tailored to their values, goals, and current economic and
social state. For example, the U.S. Government Performance and Results
Act (GPRA) of 1993 [2] requires federal agencies to establish objective,
quantifiable goals describing the outcomes of agency programs to improve
confidence, performance, accountability, feedback, decision making, and
management. Clearly, prioritization in this case should be customized for
the needs of each individual agency. On the global scale, about 100 countries
have now prepared national environmental strategies, and tangible changes
in addressing environmental issues are apparent in about half of these
countries [1]. Implied in all of these top-10 lists, whether Steer’s new envi-
ronmentalisms [1], the Ceres1 Principles, the UN’s Global Compact [4], the
Equator Principles [5], or the U.S. Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) forest
management principles [6], is recognition of the globalization of environ-
mental issues. In all cases, scientific input is crucial to inform governments
and public opinion and to minimize long-term impacts and risks.
It is within this context that we believe decision-making tools are urgently
needed to support environmental management, particularly in the world’s
1 Ceres (pronounced series) is a network of U.S. investors, environmental organizations, and
public interest groups working to address sustainable environmental challenges [2].
v
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vi PREFACE
ports and coastal areas where a delicate balance exists between human
demands for clean air, land, and water and the demands imposed by an
increasingly global economy. Addressing threats and identifying actions
to mitigate those threats necessitate an understanding of the basic risk
a ssessment paradigm and the tools of risk analysis to assess, interpret, and
communicate risks. It also requires modification of the risk paradigm itself
to incorporate a complex array of quantitative and qualitative informa-
tion that shapes the unique political and ecological challenges of different
countries and regions around the world.
Over the past seven years, the authors of this book and their colleagues
have convened a series of meetings to explore the topic of making policy deci-
sions under uncertainty in general and environmental management specifi-
cally. Each workshop has tried to demonstrate the power of risk assessment
and decision analysis as tools that decision makers should use to understand
complex environmental, economic, legal, social, and technological informa-
tion and to make the best informed decisions. Risk analysis, these experts have
argued, offers a relatively objective, unbiased, and rational approach to fram-
ing and solving complex problems. It imposes a certain degree of quantitative
rigor, as opposed to the all-too-common tendency to make environmental
decisions based on assumptions and anecdotal evidence. Decision analysis
could supplement risk analysis by providing a means for integrating heteroge-
neous scientific information and value calls by both scientists involved in the
assessment process and decision makers facing decision challenges.
The first workshop in this series, entitled “Assessment and Management
of Environmental Risks: Cost-efficient Methods and Applications” (Lisbon,
Portugal, October 2000) [7], confirmed the role risk assessment could play
as a platform for providing a scientific basis for environmentally sound
and cost-efficient management policies, strategies, and solutions to various
environmental problems. The second workshop, entitled “Comparative Risk
Assessment and Environmental Management” (Anzio, Italy, May 2002)
[8], explored the development and application of comparative risk assess-
ment (CRA) and other risk-based decision-analysis tools in environmental
management. The use of CRA was exceptional for facilitating decision
making when various social, political, and economic activities compete for
limited environmental resources. The third workshop, entitled “The Role of
Risk Assessment in Environmental Security and Emergency Preparedness
in Mediterranean Region” (Eilat, Israel, April 2004) [9], focused on envi-
ronmental security challenges in the Middle East and how risk assessment
could resolve some of the region’s pressing environmental needs. The fourth
workshop, entitled “Environmental Security in Harbors and Coastal Areas:
Management Using Comparative Risk Assessment and Multi-Criteria
Decision Analysis Framework” (Thessaloniki, Greece, April 2005) [10],
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PREFACE vii
explored environmental security issues in ports, harbors, and coastal areas
and how the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), in conjunc-
tion with risk assessment, could evaluate environmental security threats,
formulate responses to those threats, and assess the efficacy of different
responses on threat reduction.
This book is based on discussions and papers presented at a fifth work-
shop, entitled “Management Tools for Port Security, Critical Infrastructure,
and Sustainability. ” This meeting was the first to bring together concepts of
environmental risk and critical infrastructure vulnerability with the objective
of developing harmonized risk management and decision support methods
and tools. The meeting was held in Venice, Italy, in March 2006. More than
40 science, risk assessment, decision-making, and security analysts from
nine countries discussed the current state-of-knowledge on environmental
security issues at industrial ports and harbors and the adequacy of available
systematic, quantitative tools to guide vulnerability and threat assessments,
evaluate the consequences of different events and responses, and support
decision making. This workshop, like those previous, was sponsored jointly
by the Society for Risk Analysis and NATO.
The organization of the book reflects sessions and discussions during
the meeting in Venice. The goal of the meeting was to review the needs,
methods, and tools of critical infrastructure managers and to offer a solu-
tion framework and tools. Even though ports were chosen as the focus of
discussions and the prime application area, many papers and ideas are easily
applicable to critical infrastructure in general. The papers in the introduc-
tory section provide a broad overview of the concepts and frameworks
important for environmental security and risk management. Part 1 focuses
primarily on critical infrastructure and related stressors, including manage-
ment of hazardous materials and installations, transportation of dangerous
goods including supply chain risk management, vulnerability to earthquakes,
and network attacks. Part 2 focuses on ecological stressors affecting ports
and coastal area infrastructure, including contaminants, algal blooms, and
invasive species. Part 3 provides methodology and tools that are useful for
assessing risks and vulnerabilities and supporting management decisions.
These include multiple risk assessment tools, multi-criteria decision analysis,
advanced modeling, and economic tools. The book concludes with a series
of case studies that illustrate application and needs across multiple cultures
and regions. This section is quite heterogeneous (both with topical coverage
and depth of information assessment), but it preserves the nature of the
meeting as a forum for scientists from developing and developed countries to
discuss topics, methods, and tools from their own top-10 lists.
The collection of papers presented in this book reflects the workshop con-
clusion that our ability to fully evaluate environmental security and c ritical
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viii PREFACE
infrastructure vulnerability remains inexact. Integrated tools are urgently
needed if we are to respond to the exponentially growing environmental and
technological challenges that, until only a few years ago, seemed to be several
decades away. While scientists and policymakers may argue about whether
and when mankind will reach the tipping point for global change, there is
little doubt that we are running out of time. We must begin to include in
future environmentally and socially focused top-10 lists the consideration
of new decision-making tools and new frameworks for investigation, assess-
ment, and response to environmental challenges. Establishing, maintaining,
or enhancing a sense of environmental security and vulnerability in coastal
regions will require (i) matching human demands with available environ-
mental resources; (ii) recognizing environmental security threats and infra-
structure vulnerabilities; and (iii) identifying the range of available options
for preventing and minimizing natural disasters, technological failures, and
terror actions. These three considerations will require input from different
stakeholder perspectives, and a broad range of quantitative and qualitative
sociopolitical, environmental, and economic information.
Igor Linkov, Richard J. Wenning, and Gregory Kiker
April 2007
References
1. Steer A. Ten principles of the new environmentalism. Finance & Development. 1996;
33(4):4.
2. Government Performance and Results Act. Available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/
omb/mgmt-gpra/gplaw2m.html.
3. Ceres. Available at: http://www.ceres.org. Accessed 10 February 2007.
4. U.N. Global Compact. Available at: http://www.unglobalcompact.org/AboutTheGC/
TheTenPrinciples/index.html. Accessed 10 February 2007.
5. Equator Principles. Available at: http://www.equator-principles.com/afp1.shtml. Accessed
10 February 2007.
6. Forest Management Principles. Available at: http://www.fscus.org/standards_criteria.
Accessed 10 February 2007.
7. Linkov I, Palma Oliveira JM, eds. Assessment and management of environmental risks.
Amsterdam: Kluwer; 2001.
8. Linkov I, Ramadan AB, eds. Comparative risk assessment and environmental decision
making. Amsterdam: Kluwer; 2004.
9. Morel B, Linkov I, eds. Environmental security: the role of risk assessment. Amsterdam:
Springer; 2006.
10. Linkov I, Kiker G, Wenning R, eds. Management tools for port security, critical infra-
structure, and sustainability. Amsterdam: Springer; 2007.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The editors would like to acknowledge Dr. Abou Bakr Ramadan (NATO
workshop co-director) and organizing committee members (Drs. Della Sala,
Todd Bridges, and James Valverde) for their help in the organization of the
event that resulted in this book. Our special thanks to Dr. Stefano Della
Sala for serving as our host in Venice and arranging the workshop recep-
tion and use of the excellent facilities at Venice International University.
We also wish to thank the workshop participants and invited authors for
their contributions to the book and peer-review of manuscripts. We are
deeply grateful to Deb Oestreicher for her excellent editorial assistance and
management of the production of this book. We also wish to recognize the
staff at Venice International University for the superb accommodations and
teaching facilities, and Marta Citron and Francesca Peruzzo at the Autorità
Portuale di Venezia for their assistance during the workshop. Additional
technical assistance in the workshop organization was provided by Elena
Belinkaia and Eugene Linkov. The workshop agenda was prepared in col-
laboration with the Society of Risk Analysis Decision Analysis and Risk
Specialty Group. Financial support for the workshop was provided mainly
by NATO. Additional support was provided by the ENVIRON International
Corporation, Autorità Portuale di Venezia, Cambridge Environmental Inc.,
and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
ix
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
PREFACE ..................................................................................................v
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................ix
Part 1. Overview of Critical Infrastructure and Environmental Security
UNDERSTANDING ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY
AT PORTS AND HARBORS ...................................................................3
R.J. Wenning, S.E. Apitz, A. Baba, M. Citron, K. Elliott,
N. Al-Halasah, L. Kapustka, M. Lazarescu, M. Mohamed, R. Rutjes
A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF THREATS AND
VULNERABILITIES IN THE MARITIME DOMAIN ........................17
N.O. Bakir
ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN SECURITY
IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: NEW THREATS
AND POLICY FOR REDUCING VULNERABILITY ........................51
J. Ganoulis
Part 2. Port Critical Infrastructure and Management Frameworks
PROTECTION OF HAZARDOUS INSTALLATIONS
AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES -
COMPLEMENTARITY OF SAFETY
AND SECURITY APPROACHES:
APPLICATION OF THE ARAMIS METHODOLOGY .......................65
F. Fontaine, B. Debray, O. Salvi
APPLYING RISK ASSESSMENT TO SECURE
THE CONTAINERIZED SUPPLY CHAIN ..........................................79
M. van de Voort, H. Willis, D. Ortiz, S. Martonosi
TRANSPORTATION OF DANGEROUS GOODS:
A CHALLENGE FOR RISK ANALYSTS
AND RISK MANAGERS .......................................................................97
S. Menoni
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