Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics: 9th International Workshop, MLSA 2022, Grenoble, France, September 19, 2022, Revised Selected Papers

135 Pages·2023·9.848 MB·English

by  Ulf Brefeld, Jesse Davis, Jan Van Haaren, Albrecht Zimmermann

Ulf Brefeld
Jesse Davis
Jan Van Haaren
Albrecht Zimmermann (Eds.)
Communications in Computer and Information Science 1783
Machine Learning
and Data Mining
for Sports Analytics
9th International Workshop, MLSA 2022
Grenoble, France, September 19, 2022
Revised Selected Papers
Communications
in Computer and Information Science 1783
EditorialBoardMembers
JoaquimFilipe ,PolytechnicInstituteofSetúbal,Setúbal,Portugal
AshishGhosh ,IndianStatisticalInstitute,Kolkata,India
RaquelOliveiraPrates ,FederalUniversityofMinasGerais(UFMG),
BeloHorizonte,Brazil
LizhuZhou,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing,China
Rationale
The CCIS series is devoted to the publication of proceedings of computer science
conferences.Itsaimistoefficientlydisseminateoriginalresearchresultsininformatics
inprintedandelectronicform.Whilethefocusisonpublicationofpeer-reviewedfull
paperspresentingmaturework,inclusionofreviewedshortpapersreportingonworkin
progressiswelcome,too.Besidesgloballyrelevantmeetingswithinternationallyrepre-
sentativeprogramcommitteesguaranteeingastrictpeer-reviewingandpaperselection
process,conferencesrunbysocietiesorofhighregionalornationalrelevancearealso
consideredforpublication.
Topics
The topical scope of CCIS spans the entire spectrum of informatics ranging from
foundational topics in the theory of computing to information and communications
scienceandtechnologyandabroadvarietyofinterdisciplinaryapplicationfields.
InformationforVolumeEditorsandAuthors
Publication in CCIS is free of charge. No royalties are paid, however, we offer
registered conference participants temporary free access to the online version of the
conferenceproceedingsonSpringerLink(http://link.springer.com)bymeansofanhttp
referrerfromtheconferencewebsiteand/oranumberofcomplimentaryprintedcopies,
asspecifiedintheofficialacceptanceemailoftheevent.
CCISproceedingscanbepublishedintimefordistributionatconferencesoraspost-
proceedings,anddeliveredintheformofprintedbooksand/orelectronicallyasUSBs
and/ore-contentlicensesforaccessingproceedingsatSpringerLink.Furthermore,CCIS
proceedingsareincludedintheCCISelectronicbookserieshostedintheSpringerLink
digital library at http://link.springer.com/bookseries/7899. Conferences publishing in
CCIS are allowed to use Online Conference Service (OCS) for managing the whole
proceedingslifecycle(fromsubmissionandreviewingtopreparingforpublication)free
ofcharge.
Publicationprocess
The language of publication is exclusively English. Authors publishing in CCIS
have to sign the Springer CCIS copyright transfer form, however, they are free to use
theirmaterialpublishedinCCISforsubstantiallychanged,moreelaboratesubsequent
publications elsewhere. For the preparation of the camera-ready papers/files, authors
have to strictly adhere to the Springer CCIS Authors’ Instructions and are strongly
encouragedtousetheCCISLaTeXstylefilesortemplates.
Abstracting/Indexing
CCISisabstracted/indexedinDBLP,GoogleScholar,EI-Compendex,Mathematical
Reviews,SCImago,Scopus.CCISvolumesarealsosubmittedfortheinclusioninISI
Proceedings.
Howtostart
TostarttheevaluationofyourproposalforinclusionintheCCISseries,pleasesend
[email protected].
Ulf Brefeld · Jesse Davis · Jan Van Haaren ·
Albrecht Zimmermann
Editors
Machine Learning
and Data Mining
for Sports Analytics
9th International Workshop, MLSA 2022
Grenoble, France, September 19, 2022
Revised Selected Papers
Editors
UlfBrefeld JesseDavis
LeuphanaUniversityofLüneburg KULeuven
Lüneburg,Germany Leuven,Belgium
JanVanHaaren AlbrechtZimmermann
KULeuven UniversityofCaenNormandy
Leuven,Belgium Caen,France
ISSN 1865-0929 ISSN 1865-0937 (electronic)
CommunicationsinComputerandInformationScience
ISBN 978-3-031-27526-5 ISBN 978-3-031-27527-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-27527-2
©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s),underexclusivelicense
toSpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2023
Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof
thematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation,
broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information
storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynow
knownorhereafterdeveloped.
Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication
doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant
protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse.
Thepublisher,theauthors,andtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook
arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsorthe
editorsgiveawarranty,expressedorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrors
oromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregardtojurisdictionalclaimsin
publishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations.
ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG
Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland
Preface
TheMachineLearningandDataMiningforSportsAnalyticsworkshopaimedtobring
together a diverse set of researchers working on Sports Analytics in a broad sense. In
particular,itaimedtoattractinterestfromresearchersworkingonsportsfromoutside
ofmachinelearninganddatamining.The9theditionoftheworkshopwasco-located
with the European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of
KnowledgeDiscovery2022.
SportsAnalyticshasbeenasteadilygrowingandrapidlyevolvingareaoverthelast
decade, both inUS professionalsportsleagues and inEuropean footballleagues. The
recentimplementationofstrictfinancialfair-playregulationsinEuropeanfootballwill
definitelyincreasetheimportanceofSportsAnalyticsinthecomingyears.Inaddition,
there is the popularity of sports betting. The developed techniques are being used for
decisionsupportinallaspectsofprofessionalsports,includingbutnotlimitedto:
– Matchstrategy,tactics,andanalysis
– Playeracquisition,playervaluation,andteamspending
– Trainingregimensandfocus
– Injurypredictionandprevention
– Performancemanagementandprediction
– Matchoutcomeandleaguetableprediction
– Tournamentdesignandscheduling
– Bettingoddscalculation
The interest in the topic has grown so much that there is now an annual confer-
ence on Sports Analytics at the MIT Sloan School of Management, which has been
attendedbyrepresentativesfromover70professionalsportsteamsineminentleagues
such as Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football
League,NationalHockeyLeague,MajorLeagueSoccer,EnglishPremierLeague,and
theGermanBundesliga.Furthermore,sportsdataproviderssuchasStatsbomb,StatsPer-
form,andWyscouthavestartedmakingperformancedatapubliclyavailabletostimulate
researcherswhohavetheskillsandvisiontomakeadifferenceinthesportsanalytics
community. Moreover, the National Football League has been sponsoring a Big Data
Bowl where they release data and a concrete question to try to engage the analytics
community.
TherehasbeengrowinginterestintheMachineLearningandDataMiningcommu-
nityaboutthistopic,andthe2022editionofMLSAbuiltonthesuccessofprioreditions
atECMLPKDD2013andECMLPKDD2015–ECML/PKDD2021.
Both the community’s on-going interest in submitting to and participating in the
MLSAworkshopseries,andthefactthatyouarereadingthefourthvolumeofMLSA
proceedingsshowthatourworkshophasbecomeavitalvenueforpublishingandpre-
senting sports analytics results. In fact, as participants, many of whom had submitted
before, expressed during the workshop itself, venues for presenting machine learning
vi Preface
anddatamining-basedsportsanalyticsworkremainrare,motivatingustocontinueto
organizetheworkshopinfutureyears.
In 2022, the workshop received 18 submissions of which 11 were selected after a
single-blindreviewingprocessinvolvingatleastthreeprogramcommitteemembersper
paper.Oneoftheacceptedpaperswaswithdrawnfrompublicationintheproceedings;
asecondonewasanextendedabstractbasedonajournalpublication.Intermsofthe
sportsrepresented,2022sawareturntoprioryearswithsoccermakingupthemajorityof
submissions,andaslightmajorityofacceptedpapers.Topicsincludedtacticalanalysis,
outcomepredictions,dataacquisition,performanceoptimization,andplayerevaluation.
TheworkshopfeaturedaninvitedpresentationbyStephanieKovalchikfromZelus
Analyticson“Model-basedmethodsforhigh-performanceanalysisinsports”:
Thehowofwhatmakesgreatathletesgreatisoneofthemajortopicsofsportsana-
lyticsresearch.Valueattributionisafundamentaltoolforquantifyingthespecific
actionsandskillsthatimproveoutcomesinsport.Withthegrowthinspatialtemporal
datainhigh-performancesport,methodsforvalueattributionarebecomingincreas-
inglygranularandsophisticated.Inthistalk,Iwillreviewseveralcommontypesof
model-basedmethodsforvalueattributionandpresentapplicationsinmultiplepro
sports.
Furtherinformationabouttheworkshopcanbefoundontheworkshop’swebsiteat
https://dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/events/MLSA22/.
October2022 UlfBrefeld
JesseDavis
JanVanHaaren
AlbrechtZimmermann
Organization
WorkshopCo-chairs
UlfBrefeld LeuphanaUniversity,Lüneburg,Germany
JesseDavis KULeuven,Belgium
JanVanHaaren ClubBrugge,Belgium&KULeuven,Belgium
AlbrechtZimmermann UniversitédeCaenNormandie,France
ProgramCommittee
MichaelAlcorn AuburnUniversity,USA
GennadyAndrienko Fraunhofer,Germany
SwarupRanjanBehera IndianInstituteofTechnology,Guwahati,India
HarishS.Bhat UniversityofCalifornia,USA
LotteBransen SciSports,TheNetherlands
PaoloCintia UniversityofPisa,Italy
Arie-WillemdeLeeuw UniversiteitLeiden,Belgium
TomDecroos Meta,USA
WouterDuivesteijn EindhovenUniversityofTechnology,
TheNetherlands
MartinEastwood www.pena.lt/y,UK
ClémentGautrais Brightclue,France
KilianHendrickx KULeuven/SiemensDigitalIndustriesSoftware,
Belgium
MehdiKaytoue Infologic,France
LeonidKholkine UniversityofAntwerp,Belgium
StephanieKovalchik ZelusAnalytics,USA
PatrickLambrix LinköpingUniversity,Sweden
JanLasek SystemsResearchInstitute,Poland
LaurentiusMeerhoff LeidenInstituteofAdvancedComputerScience,
TheNetherlands
WannesMeert KULeuven,Belgium
LucaPappalardo UniversityofPisa,Italy
KonstantinosPelechrinis UniversityofPittsburgh,USA
viii Organization
FrançoisRioult GREYCCNRSUMR6072-UniversitédeCaen
Normandie,France
PieterRobberechts KULeuven,Belgium
MaaikeVanRoy KULeuven,Belgium
Contents
Football
TowardsExpectedCounter-UsingComprehensibleFeaturestoPredict
Counterattacks ........................................................ 3
HenrikBiermann, Franz-GeorgWieland, JensTimmer,
DanielMemmert,andAshwinPhatak
ShotAnalysisinDifferentLevelsofGermanFootballUsingExpectedGoals ... 14
LaurynasRaudoniusandThomasSeidl
Analyzing Passing Sequences for the Prediction of Goal-Scoring
Opportunities ......................................................... 27
ConorMcCarthy, PanagiotisTampakis, MarcoChiarandini,
MortenBredsgaardRanders,StefanJänicke,andArthurZimek
Let’sPenetratetheDefense:AMachineLearningModelforPrediction
andValuationofPenetrativePasses ...................................... 41
PegahRahimian, DayanaGraycedaSilvaGuerraGomes,
FanniBerkovics,andLaszloToka
EvaluationofCreatingScoringOpportunitiesforTeammatesinSoccer
viaTrajectoryPrediction ............................................... 53
MasakiyoTeranishi,KazushiTsutsui,KazuyaTakeda,andKeisukeFujii
Cost-EfficientandBias-RobustSportsPlayerTrackingbyIntegratingGPS
andVideo ............................................................ 74
HyunsungKim, ChangJoKim, MinchulJeong, JaechanLee,
JinsungYoon,andSang-KiKo
RacketSports
PredictingTennisServeDirectionswithMachineLearning .................. 89
YingZhuandRuthuparnaNaikar
Discovering and Visualizing Tactics in a Table Tennis Game Based
onSubgroupDiscovery ................................................ 101
PierreDuluard, XinqingLi, MarcPlantevit, CélineRobardet,
andRomainVuillemot