looking ahead: charting new paths for the mediterranean

146 Pages·2017·14.69 MB·English

LOOKING AHEAD:
CHARTING NEW PATHS
FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN
REPORT

SCIENTIFIC COORDINATION
Valeria Talbot ISPI
Stefano M. Torelli ISPI, ECFR
AUTHORS
Dlawer Ala’Aldeen MERI, Ziad A. Akl AL-AHRAM CENTER FOR POLITICAL AND
STRATEGIC STUDIES, Francesco Bandarin UNESCO, Emna Ben Arab ITES AND
UNIVERSITY OF SFAX, Rim Berahab OCP POLICY CENTER, Filippo Biondi BRUEGEL,
Center for Civil Society and Democracy, Eugenio Dacrema ISPI, Galip Dalay AL
SHARQ FORUM, Maria Demertzis BRUEGEL, Georges Fahmi EUI, Dina Fakoussa
DGAP, Maria Fantappie ICG, Filippo Fasulo ISPI AND CESIF,
Silvia Gison SAVE THE CHILDREN, Mohanad Hage Ali CARNEGIE MIDDLE EAST
CENTER, Omar Kadkoy TEPAV, Andrey Kortunov RIAC, David Mariano SAVE THE
CHILDREN, Karim Mezran ATLANTIC COUNCIL, Francesca Paci LA STAMPA,
Noemi Pazienti SAVE THE CHILDREN, Giuseppe Provenzano UFM, Ali Rostom IFRI,
Dorothée Schmid IFRI, Yousra Semmache SAVE THE CHILDREN, Musa Shteiwi CSS,
Claire Spencer CHATHAM HOUSE, Simone Tagliapietra BRUEGEL AND FEEM,
Valeria Talbot ISPI, Mattia Toaldo ECFR, Stefano M. Torelli ISPI AND ECFR,
Arturo Varvelli ISPI, Lorenzo Vidino ISPI AND GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY,
Matteo Villa ISPI, Maha Yahya CARNEGIE MIDDLE EAST CENTER
EDITORIAL ASSISTANT
Chiara Anna Cascino ISPI
GRAPHICS AND LAYOUT
Giovanni Collot, Nicolas Lozito, Federico Petroni IMERICA
SCIENTIFIC PARTNERS
Published on the occasion of the third edition of Rome MED - Mediterranean dialogues (30 November -
2 December 2017), promoted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and ISPI

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PREFACE
O
ver the last three years, Rome MED – Mediterranean Dialo-
gues has served as a hub for high-level initiatives and meetin-
gs among policy-makers and experts from both the northern
and southern shores of the Mediterranean. The purpose is to look beyond
current turmoil, rivalries and conflicts to draft a positive agenda for the
Mediterranean.
This new edition of the MED Report is intended as a tool to support
debate in the context of Rome MED. In particular, the volume collects
insights, analyses and policy recommendations from different perspecti-
ves and countries, with a view to shedding light on current dynamics and
future developments in the Mediterranean region at the political, security
and socio-economic level.
In this spirit, the first part of the Report highlights opportunities to be
seized and provides policy options to build a better future for the region.
The second part of the Report focuses on today’s major regional challen-
ges and is structured along the four main pillars of Rome MED: shared
security, shared prosperity, migration, and civil society & culture.
This volume is the result of the fruitful cooperation among all MED
Scientific Partners. It benefitted from the renewed partnership of Bruegel,
the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), the Deut-
sche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (DGAP), the European Council of
Foreign Relations (ECFR), the European University Institute (EUI), the In-
stitut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI), and the Think Tanks
and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) of the University of Pennsylvania.
In addition, this year the scientific partnership was enlarged to include
seven institutes from the southern shore of the Mediterranean: Al-Ahram
Center for Political and Strategic Studies; Al Sharq Forum; Carnegie Mid-
dle East Center; Institut Tunisien des Etudes Stratégiques (ITES); Jordan
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS); OCP Policy Center; Middle East Rese-
arch Institute (MERI). This expanded collaboration has allowed to further
enrich the content of the volume and provide new views and ideas.
I sincerely wish to thank all the scholars and experts who contributed
to this Report. Their constant support and efforts were crucial to make it
possible.
Paolo Magri
ISPI Executive Vice President and Director
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PART 1
POSITIVE TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
The shrinking Caliphate 11
The Islamic State’s territorial losses in Iraq 11
Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, MERI
Where the Islamic State’s losses in Syria might lead 15
Maha Yahya and Mohanad Hage Ali, Carnegie Middle East Center
Political transition in Tunisia despite everything 19
Dina Fakoussa, DGAP
The rise of alternative young democratic voices from within religious 23
communities
Georges Fahmi, EUI
New opportunities for growth: global China reaches the Middle East 27
Filippo Fasulo, ISPI and CeSIF
The Mediterranean in the digital era: youth-led technological advance 33
Claire Spencer, Chatham House
Going green: prospects for renewable energy in the MENA region 37
Rim Berahab, OCP Policy Center
References 42
PART 2
CHALLENGES
SHARED SECURITY
Radicalisation and counter-terrorism in the era of the Islamic State’s 48
metamorphosis
Lorenzo Vidino, ISPI and George Washington University
Facing new security challenges in the south of the Mediterranean 52
Ziad A. Akl, Al-Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies
The path towards radicalisation: a Tunisian perspective 55
Emna Ben Arab, ITES and University of Sfax
Through the strains: a viable roadmap for Libya? 58
Arturo Varvelli, ISPI
The Gulf monarchies: disunited we stand 62
Valeria Talbot, ISPI
The Kurdish conundrum 66
Stefano M. Torelli, ISPI and ECFR
After the referendum: what’s next for the Iraqi Kurdistan? 70
Maria Fantappie, ICG
A The Middle East according to Trump 74
Karim Mezran, Atlantic Council
Syria: testing Russia’s long-term strategy in the Middle East 78
Andrey Kortunov, RIAC
SHARED PROSPERITY
Promoting intra-regional trade in the southern Mediterranean 84
Filippo Biondi and Maria Demertzis, Bruegel
Iran’s economic reintegration: constraints and prospects 88
Dorothée Schmid and Ali Rostom, IFRI
A new “vision” for diversification in Saudi Arabia 92
Eugenio Dacrema, ISPI
Energy as a bridge in the eastern Mediterranean? 96
Simone Tagliapietra, Bruegel and FEEM
The blue economy: a driver of shared prosperity 100
Giuseppe Provenzano, Union for the Mediterranean
MIGRATION
A migration policy for the EU: solidarity through partnerships 106
Matteo Villa, ISPI
Managing flows through the central Mediterranean 110
Mattia Toaldo, ECFR
Syrian refugees between hospitality and integration 114
Maha Yahya, Carnegie Middle East Center
From humanitarian assistance to empowerment in Jordan 118
Musa Shteiwi, CSS, University of Jordan
Looking into the Turkish experience 121
Galip Dalay, Al Sharq Forum, and Omar Kadkoy, TEPAV
CIVIL SOCIETY, CULTURE AND MEDIA
Preventing a lost generation of young Syrians 126
Silvia Gison, David Mariano, Noemi Pazienti, Yousra Semmache, Save the Children
Policies for the educational sector in Syria 130
CCSD
Protecting cultural heritage in conflicts areas 132
Francesco Bandarin, UNESCO
Channelling change: social media and its political impact 136
Francesca Paci, La Stampa
References 140
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PA R T
POSITIVE TRENDS
AND
OPPORTUNITIES
PHOTO: MEDITERRANEAN CURRENT FLOWS // NASA
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