Long-run Trends in Car Use.

162 Pages·2014·11.707 MB·English

by  OECD

Long Run Trends in Car Use
The growth of car use in several advanced economies has slowed down,
stopped, or turned negative. The change cannot be attributed to adverse
economic conditions alone. Socio-demographic factors, including
population ageing and changing patterns of education, working,
and household composition matter. Rising urbanization and less
car-oriented policies in some cities also reduce the growth of car use,
perhaps combined with changing attitudes towards mobility.
Some groups choose to use cars less, others are forced to.
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This report summarizes insights into the drivers of change in car use.

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It shows that explanations are place-specifi c, and that projections u
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of future car use are increasingly uncertain. The task for policy-makers T
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is to identify mobility strategies that are robust under an increasingly n
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Long Run Trends
152
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2013

Long-Run Trends
152
in Car Use
Roundtable Report
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OECD/InternationalTransportForum(2013),Long-runTrendsinCarUse,ITFRoundTables,No.152,
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TABLE OF CONTENTS – 5
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 7

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 9
2. Indicators of change in aggregate car use volumes .................................................... 10
3. Diagnosis .................................................................................................................... 15
4. Lessons for policy and projections ............................................................................. 21
5. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 23
Notes ................................................................................................................................. 24
Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 25

Chapter 1 Are we heading towards a reversal of the trend for ever greater mobility?
by Jean-Loup Madre (France), Yves Bussière (Mexico), Roger Collet and
Irving Tapia Villareal (France) ........................................................................... 27

1. Introduction: Stocktaking in the developed countries ................................................ 29
2. The case of France...................................................................................................... 33
3. Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 48
Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 50

Chapter 2 Peak travel, peak car and the future of mobility
by Phil Goodwin (United Kingdom) ................................................................... 53

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 55
2. Aggregate observed trends at national level .............................................................. 56
3. Explanations offered for the changes in trend ............................................................ 58
4. Ideas of saturation ...................................................................................................... 60
5. Explanations based on wider social and cultural factors ............................................ 65
6. A research agenda ...................................................................................................... 78
7. Some future policy issues ........................................................................................... 82
Notes ................................................................................................................................. 87
Bibliography ...................................................................................................................... 88

LONG-RUN TRENDS IN CAR USE  OECD/ITF 2013
6 – TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 3 Have Americans hit peak travel? by Robert Puentes (USA) ........................... 91

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 93
2. Background and key American driving trends ........................................................... 93
3. What is behind the changes in US driving habits? ................................................... 100
4. Implications for policymakers .................................................................................. 106
5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 108
Notes ............................................................................................................................... 109
Bibliography .................................................................................................................... 111

Chapter 4 New driving forces in mobility: What moves the Dutch in 2012 and beyond?
by Jan Van Der Waard, Ben Immers and Peter Jorritsma (The Netherlands) .. 115

1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 117
2. Developments in Dutch mobility over recent years ................................................. 118
3. A closer look at car mobility in recent years ............................................................ 120
4. Possible causes of the reduced growth in car mobility ............................................ 127
5. Implications for policy development and associated research questions ................. 147
Bibliography .................................................................................................................... 149

List of Participants ............................................................................................................... 153
LONG-RUN TRENDS IN CAR USE  OECD/ITF 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – 7

Executive Summary

Recent trends in car usage in advanced economies
– Slower growth ahead?

LONG-RUN TRENDS IN CAR USE  OECD/ITF 2013