Table Of ContentDOT HS 812 069 January 2015
Lives Saved by Vehicle Safety
Technologies and Associated
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety
Standards, 1960 to 2012
Passenger Cars and LTVs
With Reviews of 26 FMVSS and the Effectiveness
Of Their Associated Safety Technologies in
Reducing Fatalities, Injuries, and Crashes
DISCLAIMER
This publication is distributed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, National
Highway Traffc Safety Administration, in the interest of information exchange.
The opinions, fndings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of
the authors and not necessarily those of the Department of Transportation or the
National Highway Traffc Safety Administration. The United States Government
assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. If trade or manufacturers’ names
or products are mentioned, it is because they are considered essential to the object
of the publication and should not be construed as an endorsement. The United
States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers.
Suggested APA Format Citation:
Kahane, C. J. (2015, January). Lives saved by vehicle safety technologies and
associated Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, 1960 to 2012 – Passenger
cars and LTVs – With reviews of 26 FMVSS and the effectiveness of their
associated safety technologies in reducing fatalities, injuries, and crashes.
(Report No. DOT HS 812 069). Washington, DC: National Highway Traffc
Safety Administration.
Technical Report Documentation Page
1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No.
DOT HS 812 069
4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date
Lives Saved by Vehicle Safety Technologies and Associated Federal January 2015
Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, 1960 to 2012 – Passenger Cars and 6. Performing Organization Code
LTVs – With Reviews of 26 FMVSS and the Effectiveness of Their
Associated Safety Technologies in Reducing Fatalities, Injuries, and
Crashes
7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No.
Charles J. Kahane, Ph.D.
9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)
Office of Vehicle Safety
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 11. Contract or Grant No.
Washington, DC 20590
12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NHTSA Technical Report
1200 New Jersey Avenue SE. 14. Sponsoring Agency Code
Washington, DC 20590
15. Supplementary Notes
16. Abstract
NHTSA began in 1975 to evaluate the effectiveness of vehicle safety technologies associated with the Feder-
al Motor Vehicle Safety Standards. By June 2014, NHTSA had evaluated the effectiveness of virtually all the
life-saving technologies introduced in passenger cars, pickup trucks, SUVs, and vans from about 1960 up
through about 2010. A statistical model estimates the number of lives saved from 1960 to 2012 by the com-
bination of these life-saving technologies. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data for 1975 to 2012
documents the actual crash fatalities in vehicles that, especially in recent years, include many safety technol-
ogies. Using NHTSA’s published effectiveness estimates, the model estimates how many people would have
died if the vehicles had not been equipped with any of the safety technologies. In addition to equipment com-
pliant with specific FMVSS in effect at that time, the model tallies lives saved by installations in advance of
the FMVSS, back to 1960, and by non-compulsory improvements, such as pretensioners and load limiters for
seat belts. FARS data has been available since 1975, but an extension of the model allows estimates of lives
saved in 1960 to 1974.
A previous NHTSA study using the same methods estimated that vehicle safety technologies had saved
328,551 lives from 1960 through 2002. The agency now estimates 613,501 lives saved from 1960 through
2012. The annual number of lives saved grew from 115 in 1960, when a small number of people used lap
belts, to 27,621 in 2012, when most cars and LTVs were equipped with numerous modern safety technolo-
gies and belt use on the road achieved 86 percent.
17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement
FARS; statistical analysis; evaluation; benefits; effec- Document is available to the public from the National
Technical Information Service www.ntis.gov.
tiveness; fatality reduction; injury reduction; crashwor-
thiness; crash avoidance
19. Security Classif. (Of this report) 20. Security Classif. (Of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price
Unclassified Unclassified 525
Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
A REVOLUTION IN SAFETY AND HEALTH ........................................................................x
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... xvii
FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS .....................................................................................1
Basic analysis method ..........................................................................................................2
What is included and what is excluded? ..............................................................................3
List of FMVSS, safety technologies, and effectiveness evaluations ...................................4
What has changed from NHTSA’s 2004 report? ...............................................................12
Estimating lives saved by safety technologies, 1960 to 2012 ............................................13
Part 1: Review of 26 FMVSS and their effectiveness in reducing fatalities, injuries,
and crashes for passenger cars and LTVs ..........................................................................14
103 Windshield defrosting and defogging systems ..........................................................15
Rear window defrosting and defogging systems .......................................................15
105 Hydraulic and electric brake systems ........................................................................18
135 Light vehicle brake systems
Dual master cylinders ................................................................................................18
Front disc brakes ........................................................................................................21
Rear-wheel antilock brake systems for LTVs ............................................................22
Four-wheel antilock brake systems for passenger cars and LTVs .............................25
108 Lamps, reflective devices, and associated equipment ...............................................30
Side marker lamps......................................................................................................30
Center high mounted stop lamps................................................................................34
Retroreflective tape on heavy trailers ........................................................................38
Daytime running lights ..............................................................................................42
Amber turn signals .....................................................................................................43
LED stop lamps..........................................................................................................44
121 Air brake systems .......................................................................................................46
ABS for heavy trucks and trailers ..............................................................................46
126 Electronic stability control systems ...........................................................................48
138 Tire pressure monitoring systems ..............................................................................52
201 Occupant protection in interior impact ......................................................................55
Redesign of middle/lower instrument panels with improved occupant protection ....55
1999-2003 head injury protection upgrade ................................................................60
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202 Head restraints ...........................................................................................................65
Head restraints for outboard front seats/original version of FMVSS No. 202 ..........65
2010-2012 head restraint upgrade (not yet evaluated) ...............................................70
203 Impact protection for the driver from the steering control system ............................71
204 Steering control rearward displacement
Energy-absorbing and telescoping steering assembly ...............................................71
205 Glazing materials .......................................................................................................77
High-penetration resistant windshields .77
Glass-plastic windshields ...........................................................................................80
206 Door locks and door retention components ...............................................................82
Stronger locks, latches and hinges for side doors ......................................................82
207 Seating systems ..........................................................................................................85
Seat back locks for 2-door cars with folding front seat backs ...................................85
208 Occupant crash protection ..........................................................................................89
209 Seat belt assemblies ...................................................................................................89
210 Seat belt assembly anchorages ...................................................................................89
Lap belts for front seat occupants ..............................................................................92
Lap belts for rear seat occupants ................................................................................97
Manual 3-point lap-shoulder belts for outboard front seat occupants .......................99
3-point lap-shoulder belts for rear seat occupants ...................................................111
Automatic seat belts .................................................................................................113
Pretensioners and load limiters for seat belts ...........................................................116
Frontal air bags ........................................................................................................119
Manual on-off switches for passenger air bags in pickup trucks
and other vehicles with small or no rear seats ........................................................130
1998-99 redesign of frontal air bag (sled-certification) ...........................................133
Advanced frontal air bags (automatic suppression or low-risk deployment) ..........136
212 Windshield mounting ...............................................................................................139
Adhesive windshield bonding ..................................................................................139
213 Child restraint systems .............................................................................................144
225 Child restraint anchorage systems ...........................................................................144
Rear-facing and forward-facing child safety seats ...................................................145
Upper tethers and anchorages (not yet fully evaluated) ...........................................152
LATCH (lower anchors and tethers for children – not yet fully evaluated) ............152
Booster seats (not yet fully evaluated) .....................................................................154
Safety benefits of riding in the rear seat ..................................................................155
214 Side impact protection .............................................................................................160
Side door beams .......................................................................................................160
TTI(d) improvement in passenger cars by structure and padding ...........................164
Curtain and side air bags ..........................................................................................170
216 Roof crush resistance ...............................................................................................175
Redesign of true hardtops with B-pillars/original version of FMVSS No. 216.......175
2013-2016 roof crush resistance upgrade (not yet evaluated) .................................178
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223 Rear impact guards for heavy trailers ......................................................................179
224 Rear impact protection for heavy trailers.................................................................179
226 Ejection mitigation ...................................................................................................182
Rollover curtains ......................................................................................................182
301 Fuel system integrity ................................................................................................185
1976-1978 upgrade: rollover, rear-impact and lateral-impact tests .........................185
2005-2009 upgrade: rear-impact and lateral-impact tests ........................................187
NCAP: New Car Assessment Program ............................................................................190
Frontal NCAP-related improvements in cars without air bags ................................191
Frontal NCAP in vehicles with air bags (not evaluated) .........................................194
Offset-frontal IIHS tests (partially evaluated) .........................................................195
Side NCAP and IIHS side impact testing (not evaluated) .......................................196
Rollover-resistance NCAP (partially evaluated) .....................................................197
SUMMARY TABLES FOR PART 1 ..............................................................................198
Table 1-2: Estimates of Fatality Reduction in NHTSA Evaluations of
Safety Technologies ............................................................................................199
Table 1-3: Estimates of Injury Reduction in NHTSA Evaluations of Safety
Technologies .........................................................................................................206
Table 1-4: Estimates of Crash Avoidance in NHTSA Evaluations of Safety
Evaluations...........................................................................................................212
PART 2: Lives Saved by Vehicle Safety Technologies and Associated Federal Motor
Vehicle Safety Standards, 1960 to 2012 ..................................................................214
Summary of the Estimation Method ................................................................................214
FINDINGS .......................................................................................................................227
Estimates of lives saved ...........................................................................................227
Net effectiveness for car/LTV occupants ................................................................233
Car/LTV occupant fatalities per 100,000,000 VMT ................................................239
Estimates of lives saved by each technology (grouped by associated FMVSS)......244
Benefits for occupants of passenger cars .................................................................252
Benefits for occupants of LTVs ...............................................................................285
Benefits for pedestrians, bicyclists, and other non-occupants .................................307
Benefits for motorcyclists ........................................................................................311
Effect of frontal air bags by seating position, occupant age, and type of air bag ....311
REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................324
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APPENDIX A: SAS Programs Used to Estimate Lives Saved by Vehicle Safety
Technologies and Associated FMVSS, 1960 to 2012 .....................................................350
Overview ..........................................................................................................................350
DESCRIPTION OF THE MAIN ANALYSIS PROGRAM LS2014 ..............................355
APPENDIX B: SUMMARIES OF PUBLISHED EVALUATION REPORTS .....................449
APPENDIX C: Year-by-Year Percentages of Cars and LTVs Equipped With Safety
Technologies: New Vehicles (by MY) and All Vehicles on the Road (by CY) ..............467
APPENDIX D: Computation of Fatality Risk Indices for Diseases, 1960 to 2010 .................488
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ABS antilock brake system
ACIR Automotive Crash Injury Research, a crash data file of the 1950s and 1960s
ACTS Automotive Coalition for Traffic Safety (before 1999, American Coalition for
Traffic Safety)
AIS abbreviated injury scale; the levels of this scale are: 0 = uninjured, 1 = minor,
2 = moderate, 3 = serious, 4 = severe, 5 = critical, and 6 = maximum
AMC American Motors Corporation
ANPRM advance notice of proposed rulemaking
ANSI American National Standards Institute
ATD anthropomorphic test device (dummy)
BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke
CATMOD categorical models procedure in SAS
CDS Crashworthiness Data System of NASS
CFR Code of Federal Regulations; up-to-date text of NHTSA regulations may be
downloaded from the electronic CFR, Title 49, www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-
idx?c=ecfr&tpl=/ecfrbrowse/Title49/49tab_02.tpl. Regulations other than
FMVSS are referenced as Part numbers (e.g., Part 563, “Event data record-
ers”). FMVSS are referenced as Part 571 followed by the FMVSS number
(e.g., Part 571.103 = FMVSS No. 103, “Windshield defrosting and defogging
systems”)
CHMSL center high-mounted stop lamp
CMVSS Canadian motor vehicle safety standard
CPU central processing unit
CRASH Calspan reconstruction of accident speeds on the highway
CUV crossover utility vehicle
CY calendar year
DMV department of motor vehicles
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DOF direction of force (a variable in CDS and other crash databases)
DRL daytime running lights
ECE Economic Commission for Europe
EMS emergency medical services
ESC electronic stability control
FARS Fatality Analysis Reporting System (a census of fatal crashes in the United
States since 1975)
FHWA Federal Highway Administration
FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration
FMCSR Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulation
FMH free-motion headform for testing upper interior components
FMVSS Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard
GAD general area of damage (a variable in CDS and other crash databases)
GES General Estimates System of NASS
GM General Motors
GSA General Services Administration of the Federal government
GTR global technical regulation
GVWR gross vehicle weight rating (specified by the manufacturer, equals the vehi-
cle’s curb weight plus maximum recommended loading)
HIC head injury criterion
HPR high penetration resistant windshield
HSL Highway Safety Literature, an on-line literature database that is a subfile of
the automated Transportation Research Information Service (TRIS) file, ac-
cessible at trid.trb.org.
ICC Interstate Commerce Commission
ICD-10 International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision
IIHS Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
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LATCH lower anchors and tethers for children
LED light-emitting diode
LTV light trucks and vans (includes pickup trucks, SUVs, minivans and full-sized
vans)
MCOD multiple cause of death file, a supplement to FARS since 1987, listing causes
of death from the occupant’s death certificate
MDAI multidisciplinary accident investigations (a file of in-depth crash investiga-
tions conducted by NHTSA and others, 1967-78)
MDB moving deformable barrier
MVMA2D Motor Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association’s 2-dimensional computer simula-
tion of the occupant’s motion in a frontal crash
MY model year
NASS National Automotive Sampling System (a probability sample of police-
reported crashes in the United States since 1979, investigated in detail)
NCAP New Car Assessment Program (consumer information supplied by NHTSA on
the safety of new cars and LTVs, based on test results, since 1979)
NCSA National Center for Statistics and Analysis, NHTSA
NCSS National Crash Severity Study (a probability sample of police-reported towa-
way crashes in seven multicounty areas, 1977-79, investigated in detail)
NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
NMVCCS National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Study
NOPUS National Occupant Protection Use Survey (statistics for the United States,
since 1994, from a national observational survey based on a probability sam-
ple)
NPRM notice of proposed rulemaking
NTSB National Transportation Safety Board
RF right front
RSEP Restraint Systems Evaluation Project (a probability sample of police-reported
towaway crashes involvements of model year 1973-75 cars in five urban or
multicounty areas, 1974-75, investigated in detail)
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