Land-Use Modelling in Planning Practice [electronic resource]

2011·4.3 MB·English

by  Koomen, Eric

Land-Use Modelling in Planning Practice
The GeoJournal Library
Volume 101
ManagingEditor:
DanielZ.Sui,CollegeStation,USA
FoundingSeriesEditor:
WolfTietze,Helmstedt,Germany
EditorialBoard: PaulClaval,France
YehudaGradus,Israel
SamOckPark,SouthKorea
HermanvanderWusten,TheNetherlands
Forfurthervolumes:
http://www.springer.com/series/6007
Eric Koomen Judith Borsboom-van Beurden
·
Editors
Land-Use Modelling
in Planning Practice
123
Editors
EricKoomen JudithBorsboom-vanBeurden
VUUniversityAmsterdam TNOBehaviouralandSocietalSciences
SpatialEconomics/SPINlab POBox49,2600AADelft
FEWEB/RE TheNetherlands
DeBoelelaan1105 [email protected]
1081HVAmsterdam
TheNetherlands
[email protected]
ISSN0924-5499
ISBN978-94-007-1821-0 e-ISBN978-94-007-1822-7
DOI10.1007/978-94-007-1822-7
SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergLondonNewYork
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2011935563
©SpringerScience+BusinessMediaB.V.2011
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Foreword
A generation or more ago when land use transport models were first being
developed, the focus was on how different models compared with one another in
technical and theoretical terms. There was a concern for dynamics, for interaction
and for calibration and validation, but less so for how such models might be
interfaced with wider planning processes and the stakeholders that operate such
systemsandareindeedinfluencedbytheplansthatemergedfromthem.Thestate
of the art then consisted of comparative studies of cross-sectional comprehensive
spatial interaction model applications catalogued, for example, in the ISGLUTI
Project – the International Study Group on Land Use Transport Interaction – and
reportedinthebookbyWebster,BlyandPaulley(1988).Thedominantfocuswas
verymuchintermsofthetechnicalperformanceofmodelsratherthantheirusein
planningorpolicy-making.
As our experience of these models grew and evolved, this focus began to shift
tothecontextinwhichmodelswerebestused.Ontotheagendacameideasabout
thevarioustoolsthathadbeendevelopedtoinformhowwemightbestmakegood
plans, and how these could be stitched together into coherent planning methods.
Planningsupportsystemsinanalogytodecisionsupportinmanagementwerefirst
formallysuggestedover20yearsagobyBrittonHarris(1989)inhisseminalarticle
Beyondgeographicinformationsystems:computersandtheplanningprofessional
as a way of bridging the development of computer models and tools with the
activitiesofplan-making. Sincethen,aseriesofcontributionstowaysofbuilding
thisbridgehavebeenforged,themostrecentbeingreportedbyBrail’s(2008)inthe
collectionofpapersinhisbookPlanningSupportSystemsforCitiesandRegions.
Manyofthesesketchthewidercontextandillustratehowadiversityofmodelsand
methods are coming together to define appropriate forums for dialogues between
modelbuilders,plannersandthewidersetofstakeholdersinvolvedinpolicyandits
implementation.
Sofarwedonothaveadetailedblowbyblowaccountofbuildingandapplying
models as part of planning support systems. Until now that is, because this book
represents the first such chronology of how a suite of land-use modelling tools
called LUMOS – Land Use MOdelling System – which is centred on the Land
Use Scanner model with another model Environment Explorer being sometimes
v
vi Foreword
used in parallel, is being fashioned to examine a wide array of different planning
issues ranging from climate change to ways of reducing energy use in transport.
This book should convince sceptics of the need to use formal tools in a sensitive
andappropriatemannertoexploredifferenturbanandregionalfuturesthatcanbest
addressthevariousgrandchallengesinvolvingtheenvironmentthatwilldominate
the next 20 years and beyond. All of the authors writing here provide a splendid
pictureofplanningsupportsystemsinaction,infactofseveralvariantsofageneric
planning support system fashioned around the various tools and models that have
been developed by many groups in the Netherlands which are now maintained by
PBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency.
Thisbookreflectsexperienceofusingthesetoolsovera15yearperiodfromthe
time when the Land Use Scanner was first developed, through its development to
finerscalelevelsofspatialresolutionandthroughitsdevelopmentfromananalytical
tooltoonewithadirectoptimisationcapability.Thefirstthreechaptersinthebook
setthecontextbydescribingthesemodelsandsettingtheminthewidercontextof
spatial modelling more generally. Koomen, Hilferink and Borsboom-van Beurden
provideacomprehensiveandtechnicallyusefuldescriptioninthefirstchapterwhere
they define the basic structure and purpose of the model as a ‘specification of
regional demand for land, a definition of local suitability, an allocation module’,
andresultingdepictionsoffuturelanduse.
ThisintroductionisfollowedbysettingtheLUMOS-modelsinaninternational
perspective basedonareportbyTimmermans, Batty,Couclelis and Wegener who
were involved in developing a critique of the experience in 2007. It might seem a
littleoddthatoneofthesereviewersiswritingthisforewordbutasagroup,wehada
privilegedroleinlearningabouttheproject,andthusIcancommunicateourfeelings
thatthisentireeffortshouldbebroughttotheattentionofthewiderworldofland-
useandurbanmodellersaswellasplannersengagedinthesearchforgoodpractice
inthekindsofplanningthatLUMOShasbeenusedtosupport.Infact,theLUMOS
toolboxisunusualinthatthemodelsgenerallyoperateacrossseveralscalesfromthe
countrywide Netherlands itself down to quite small urban and rural regions. What
indeedisimpressiveistherangeofapplicationsthatarereportedhere.Thesepick
up on significant questions about sprawl, environment, city compaction, climate
change,andenergyreductioninthecontextofsustainability.Thetoolboxdoesnot
quiteextendtodealingwithdemographicfactorspersebutthereareplentyofhooks
tosuggesthowtheseothersectoralmodelscanbepluggedintoanyplanningsupport
systemfashionedonLUMOSprinciples.
Before the various contributions move onto applications and extensions of the
models, van Schrojenstein Lantman, Verburg, Bregt, and Geertman provide an
interesting and informative review of land-use models ranging from land cover to
cellularautomataandthencetoagentbasedmodels.Theyreviewsixgenerictypes
inmoredetailincludingGEOMOD2whichislandcoverbased,SLEUTHwhichis
acellularautomatalanddevelopmentmodel,UrbanSimwhichisprobablythebest
exampleofacontemporarylandusetransportmodelbasedondiscretechoicetheory
but also embodying fine scale spatial grain with an agent-based focus, IMAGE an
ecological–environmental framework to explore the long-term dynamics of global
Foreword vii
change,CORMASamulti-agentframeworksimulatingnaturalresourcesallocation,
and ILUMASS a micro-simulation model of urban land use. A brief review of the
modelling process involving calibration and validation is present and this sets the
sceneformanyapplicationsinpractice.
Sustainability issues follow focusing on climate change – flooding risks and
water damage, shortages and salt-water intrusion – biodiversity, accessibility and
environmentalimpacts,qualityoflife,globalbusinessissues,andlandscapequality.
Transportmodellinganditsrelationtoland-usechangearethenexploredusingthe
example of a well-established model in which many features of the land market
appear.ThismodelwhichiscalledTigrisXLislinkedtoLandUseScannerthrough
the housing market which lies at the heart of linking different kinds of urban
model. Applications then focus on the potential for resource allocation across the
Netherlandsanditsregionwherethevarioussimulationmodelsareusedtolookat
bio energy production and more general regional spatial strategy planning. Many
importantlessonsfortheuseofmodelsinplanningsupportaregleanedfromthese
analyses.Theselessonshavebeennotedmanytimesbuthere,theyarebasedona
wealthofexperiencewhichisonlypossiblewhenyouhavehadthesortofsustained
modellingeffortthathasbeencharacteristicofplanningintheNetherlandsforthe
last20–30yearsatleast.
Futuredevelopmentsarethenchartedanditisherethatweseehowthecritical
massbuiltupfromthisexperienceprovidesanimportantguidetohowthesemodels
might be extended and improved. Dekkers and Rietveld begin this process by
developingalandmarketbasisforLandUseScannerwhileKuijpers-Lindeprovides
thewidercontextofplanningsupport.Lastbutnotleastanewmarket-basedland-
use model is proposed by Borsboom-van Beurden and Zondag. This builds on the
Tigris XL schema and from this and other contributions below, it clear that the
generalconsensusisthatallthesetoolsneedastrongereconomicunderpinningfor
theprocessesoflandallocationthattheysimulateandforecastaswellasoptimise.
This book is a timely and important contribution to ways in which we might
use models in planning, models in practice, and how we might best use them to
inform the dialogue between professionals and decision-makers. Case studies are
essentialinthisbutalltoooften,wedonothaveenoughdetailtoknowhoweffective
the models and tools applied have actually been. This book redresses this balance
for it contains a wealth of experience that is not available anywhere else. What is
unusualandimpressiveisthewaythisexperienceisbeingusedtoimproveplanning
support, to reconcile a changing balance between experts, professionals, informed
lay interests and the public-at-large. Joshua Epstein (2008) in a fascinating essay
entitled Why Model? makes the point ‘The choice, then, is not whether to build
models;it’swhethertobuildexplicitones.Inexplicitmodels,assumptionsarelaid
out in detail, so we can study exactly what they entail’. The contributions in this
bookprovidethisexplicitnessthatEpsteincallsforinawaythatprovidesuswith
clearrulesofengagementfortheuseofmodelsinplanning.
London,UK MichaelBatty
viii Foreword
References
Brail, R. K. (Ed.). (2008). Planning support systems for cities and regions. Cambridge, MA:
LincolnInstituteofLandPolicy.
Epstein,J.M.(2008).Whymodel?JournalofArtificialSocietiesandSocialSimulation,11(4),12.
Availableathttp://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/11/4/12.html.RetrievedMarch2011.
Harris, B. (1989). Beyond geographic information systems: Computers and the planning
professional.JournaloftheAmericanPlanningAssociation,55,85–90
Webster, F. V., Bly, P. H., & Paulley, N. J. (1988). Urban land use and transport interaction:
Policiesandmodels.Farnborough,Hants:Gower.
Preface
Land-use modelling has been firmly established in Dutch planning practice
in the past 10 years. The Land Use MOdelling System (LUMOS) toolbox,
managed by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, has made this
development possible. The development of this toolbox started in 1996 and
builds on the cooperation of public research organisations such as PBL and
the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), academic institutes (VU
UniversityAmsterdam)andcommercialITcompanies(GeodanandObjectVision).
Theongoingmodeldevelopmentprocessisuniqueinthesensethatitreflectsalmost
15yearsofcontinuousinteractionbetweenplanners,researchersandITspecialists.
This book gives an overview of the wealth of recent applications and
developmentsoftheLUMOStoolbox.Itcontainscontributionsofthemanypartners
that are active in applying and developing the toolbox and focuses specifically on
the Land Use Scanner model that was applied in a wide range of policy-related
studies in the past years. In addition to being employed for trend extrapolation,
scenario studies and optimisation at the national level, the model has also been
frequently used at the lower, regional scale level as is demonstrated in the various
regional cases that are included in the book. Besides these applications, the book
alsoconsiderssomeofthemoretheoreticalaspectsofland-usemodelsanddiscusses
variousstudiespreparingthefurtherdevelopmentofthemodel.Assuch,thisbook
isacontinuationofthepreviousDutchRuimtescannerbookpublishedin2001that
describedthedevelopmentandinitialapplicationsofLandUseScanner.
The current book is aimed at planners and researchers worldwide that are
interestedinthecurrentstateoftheartofland-usemodellinginplanningpractice.It
showswhichtypesofapplicationsarepossiblewithcurrentoperationalinstruments
anddiscussespossiblepathwaysforfurtherdevelopment.Thebookallowsscholars
andpractitionersaroundtheglobetolearnfromtheextensiveexperienceofDutch
plannersandmodellers.ThismaybeparticularlyinterestingsincetheNetherlands
have a longstanding experience in this field, which is exemplified by the fact that
thewell-knownandoften-usedCLUEandMOLAND-basedmodelsalsooriginate
here.
Obviously,thebookisonlyasnapshotofworkinprogress.Itdoes,forexample,
notdocumentrecentworkrelatedtoclimateadaptationthatiscarriedoutwithinthe
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