Table Of ContentKing Trends and the Future
of Public Policy
Also by Hugh Compston
THE NEW POLITICS OF UNEMPLOYMENT (edited)
SOCIAL PARTNERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION (edited with Justin
Greenwood)
POLICY CONCERTATION AND SOCIAL PARTNERSHIP IN WESTERN
EUROPE (edited with Stefan Berger)
HANDBOOK OF PUBLIC POLICY IN EUROPE: BRITAIN, FRANCE AND
GERMANY (edited)
King Trends and the Future
of Public Policy
Hugh Compston
Senior Lecturer in Public Policy
Cardiff University
* © Hugh Compston 2006
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2006 978-1-4039-8770-9
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Compston, Hugh, 1955-
King trends and the future of public policy / Hugh Compston.
p.cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Policy sciences. I. TItle.
H97.C6542006
320.6-dc22 2006043211
10 9 8 7 6 54321
15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06
Transferred to Digital Printing 2011
Contents
List of Tables vi
List of Abbreviations viii
Acknowledgements x
Introduction: Policy Networks and Advocacy Coalitions in Action 1
Part I The March of New Technology 19
1 Information and Communications Technology 21
2 Biotechnology 46
3 Healthcare Technology 60
4 Military Technology 76
Part II Growing Affluence and Structural Change 99
5 Growth and Diversification of Production and Consumption 101
6 Greater Energy Use 115
7 Increasing Mobility 130
8 The Shift to Services 146
9 The Growth of Women's Employment 159
10 The Expansion of Trade 168
11 The Internationalization of Production 182
12 The Internationalization of Finance 204
13 The Expansion of Mass Media 217
Part III Climate Change 231
14 Climate Change 233
Part IV Ageing, Education and Social Liberalization 245
15 Population Ageing 247
16 Rising Levels of Education 260
17 Smaller Households 272
18 Secularization 280
19 Sexual Liberalization 291
Part V The Big Picture 303
20 The Shape of Things To Come 305
References 321
Index 348
v
List of Tables
1.1 Identifiable king trends 7
1.2 Generic policy network 10
1.3 Policy sectors 17
1.1 Major information and communications technologies (ICTs) 22
1.2 Examples of current and possible future ICT applications 24
1.3 Crime in the digital age 34
1.4 Generic ICT policy network 36
1.5 Examples of technical protection against cybercrime 41
1.6 Policy implications of developments in information and
communications technology (lCT) 43
2.1 Main biotechnologies 47
2.2 Current and possible future applications of biotechnology 48
2.3 Generic biotechnology policy network SO
2.4 Applications of genetic engineering to agriculture 52
2.5 Actual and potential risks of genetic engineering in agriculture 55
2.6 Policy implications of developments in biotechnology 59
3.1 Developments in healthc are technology 61
3.2 Issues arising from developments in healthcare technology 62
3.3 Generic healthc are policy network 64
3.4 Policy implications of developments in healthc are technology 74
4.1 Developments in military technology 78
4.2 Generic defence policy network 80
4.3 Weapons of mass destruction 83
4.4 Examples of types of cyberattack 93
4.5 Policy implications of developments in military technology 98
5.1 Examples of developing manufacturing technologies 103
5.2 Some consequences of rising affluence for consumers 106
5.3 Generic economic policy network 108
5.4 Policy implications of the growth and diversification of
production and consumption 113
6.1 Generic energy policy network 118
6.2 Policy implications of greater energy use 128
7.1 Transport trends in the EU-1S, 1970-2002 131
7.2 Transport projections for the EU-2S, 2000-2030 132
7.3 Generic transport policy network 135
7.4 Policy implications of greater mobility 144
8.1 The shift to services in the EU-1S, 1970-2003 147
8.2 Employment by sector as percentage of total employment, EU-1S,
1995-2003 147
vi
List of Tables vii
8.3 Professional and business services, EV-1S, 2003 149
8.4 Generic policy network relating to the shift to services 152
8.5 Policy implications of the shift to services 156
9.1 The labour force in the EV-1S by gender, 1970-2000 160
9.2 Generic policy network relating to women's employment 162
9.3 Policy implications of the growth in women's employment 166
10.1 Average annual percentage changes in EV-1S trade in goods and
services, 1970-2006 168
10.2 EV-1S trade as a % of GDP, 1970-2006 169
10.3 Generic trade policy network 172
10.4 Policy implications of trade expansion 180
11.1 FDI stock as a % of GDP, EV-1S, 1980-2003 186
11.2 EV-1S direct investment positions, 1994 and 2002 186
11.3 Generic policy network relating to international investment 187
11.4 Policy implications of the internationalization of production 202
12.1 International investment, 1980-2003 205
12.2 Generic policy network relating to international finance 207
12.3 Policy implications of the internationalization of finance 215
13.1 Growth in consumption of audiovisual media, EV-1S 219
13.2 Audiovisual media industry growth, EV-1S 221
13.3 Generic policy network relating to the mass media 224
13.4 Policy implications of mass media expansion 230
14.1 Generic policy network relating to climate change 236
14.2 Measures to counter climate change 239
14.3 Policy implications of climate change 243
15.1 Population ageing, EV-1S, 1993-2050 248
15.2 Generic policy network relating to ageing 251
15.3 Measures designed to increase the size of the labour force 255
15.4 Policy implications of population ageing 258
16.1 Tertiary education graduates by field of study, EV-1S, 1998-2003 261
16.2 Generic education policy network 263
16.3 Policy implications of rising education levels 270
17.1 Generic policy network relating to the trend toward smaller
households 274
17.2 Policy implications of the trend towards smaller households 278
18.1 Percentage of respondents attending religious services at least
once a week, EV, 1970-98 281
18.2 Percentage of respondents who believe in God, EV, 1947-2001 283
18.3 Generic policy network relating to secularization 285
18.4 Policy implications of secularization 290
19.1 Generic policy network relating to sexual liberalization 298
19.2 Policy implications of sexual liberalization 301
20.1 Identifiable king trends (again) 306
20.2 Business-friendly policies 314
20.3 Net policy implications of king trends 320
List of Abbreviations
ACF Advocacy Coalition Framework
BCBS Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
BIS Bank for International Settlements
C4I Command, control, communications, computing and intelligence
CHIPS Clearing-House Inter-Bank Payments System
CFC Chlorofluorocarbon
CRBN Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear
DNS Domain Name Server
DTI Department of Trade and Industry
EPC Economic Policy Committee (EU)
EU European Union
EU-IS European Union of 15 Member States as it was prior to the 2004
enlargement
EU-2S European Union of 25 Member States as it has been since the
2004 enlargement
Eurojust The European Union's Judicial Cooperation Unit
Europol European Police Office
FATF Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FLG Financial Leaders' Group
FTF Financial Stability Forum
G7 Group of 7: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK
and the US
G8 G 7 plus Russia
GW Group of 10, consisting of eleven industrial countries: Belgium,
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden,
Switzerland, the UK and the US
G30 The Group of Thirty (Consultative Group on International
Economic and Monetary Affairs, Inc.)
GATS General Agreement on Trade and Services
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GM Genetically modified
GMO Genetically modified organism
IASB International Accounting Standards Board
ICT Information and communications technology
lEA International Energy Agency
IIF Institute of International Finance
ILO International Labour Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
viii
List ofA bbreviations ix
Interpol International Criminal Police Organization
IOSCO International Organization of Securities Commissions
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN)
IT Information technology
kT kilotonnes (1,000 tonnes)
MOX Mixed-oxide (plutonium oxide and uranium oxide)
MP Member of Parliament
Mtoe Million tonnes of oil equivalent
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NGO Non-government organization
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
OTC Over-the-counter
START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
TNC Transnational corporation
TRIMS Trade-Related Aspects of Investment Measures
TRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of International Property Rights
UN United Nations
UNICE Union of Industrial and Employers' Confederations of Europe
VAT Value added tax
WMD Weapon of mass destruction
WTO World Trade Organization
