Joining the Fray: Outside Military Intervention in Civil Wars

229 Pages·2012·1.9 MB·English

by  Zachary C. Shirkey

Joining the Fray
Military Strategy and operational art
edited by Professor howard M. hensel, air War College, USa
the ashgate Series on Military Strategy and operational art analyzes and assesses
the synergistic interrelationship between joint and combined military operations,
national military strategy, grand strategy, and national political objectives in
peacetime, as well as during periods of armed conflict. In doing so, the series
highlights how various patterns of civil–military relations, as well as styles of
political and military leadership influence the outcome of armed conflicts. In
addition, the series highlights both the advantages and challenges associated with
the joint and combined use of military forces involved in humanitarian relief, nation
building, and peacekeeping operations, as well as across the spectrum of conflict
extending from limited conflicts fought for limited political objectives to total war
fought for unlimited objectives. Finally, the series highlights the complexity and
challenges associated with insurgency and counter-insurgency operations, as well
as conventional operations and operations involving the possible use of weapons
of mass destruction.
also in this series:
Blair’s Successful War
British Military Intervention in Sierra Leone
andrew M. Dorman
iSBn 978 0 7546 7299 9
Russian Civil-Military Relations
robert Brannon
iSBn 978 0 7546 7591 4
Managing Civil-Military Cooperation
edited by Sebastiaan J.h. rietjens and Myriame t.i.B. Bollen
iSBn 978 0 7546 7281 4
Securing the State
Reforming the National Security Decisionmaking
Process at the Civil-Military Nexus
Christopher P. gibson
iSBn 978 0 7546 7290 6
Joining the Fray
outside Military intervention in Civil Wars
ZaChary C. Shirkey
Hunter College, City University of New York, USA
© Zachary C. Shirkey 2012
all rights reserved. no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
Zachary C. Shirkey has asserted his right under the Copyright, Designs and Patents act,
1988, to be identified as the author of this work.
Published by
ashgate Publishing Limited ashgate Publishing Company
Wey Court east Suite 420
Union road 101 Cherry Street
Farnham Burlington
Surrey, gU9 7Pt Vt 05401-4405
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www.ashgate.com
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Shirkey, Zachary C.
Joining the fray : outside military intervention in civil wars. – (Military strategy and
operational art)
1. Civil war – Case studies. 2. Military policy. 3. national interest.
i. title ii. Series
327.1’6–dc23
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Shirkey, Zachary C.
Joining the fray : military intervention in civil wars / by Zachary C. Shirkey.
p. cm.—(Military strategy and operational art)
includes bibliographical references and index.
iSBn 978-1-4094-2892-3 (hbk.)—iSBn 978-1-4094-2893-0 (ebook) 1. Civil war.
2. intervention (international law)—Case studies. 3. Military history, Modern—20th
century. i. title. ii. title: Military intervention in civil wars.
U21.2.S542 2012
355.02’18—dc23
2012019361
iSBn 9781409428923 (hbk)
iSBn 9781409428930 (ebk – PDF)
iSBn 9781409470915 (ebk – ePUB)
V
Printed and bound in great Britain by the
MPg Books group, Uk.
Contents
List of Figures and Tables ix
Acknowledgements xi
List of Abbreviations xiii
1 The Puzzle and Importance of Military Intervention in Civil Wars 1
What Causes Joining? 4
What is Joining? 7
Outline of the Book 9
2 Why States Join Civil Wars: Revealed Information and
Commitment Problems 13
Correlates of Joining 13
Previous Theories of Joining 23
War, Peace and Revealed Information 27
Commitment Problems 36
Why Joining and Not Another Form of Involvement? 38
Strategic Delay 39
Differences from Prior Explanations 40
Hypotheses 42
Case Selection 44
3 The Hungarian Revolution (1848–49): Unexpected Defeats and
Nagging Commitment Problems 47
The Course of the War through the Battle of Kápolna 49
The Outlook and Beliefs of Nicholas I 51
Russian Intervention in the Danubian Principalities and
Transylvania 54
The Decision to Join the War 56
The Polish Bogeyman 59
Termination of the War 62
Conclusions 62
4 The Lebanese Civil War (1975–90): Revealed Information,
Commitment Problems or Pretexts? 65
The Early Course of the War and Syrian Involvement 67
The Israeli Invasion 85
Overall Conclusions 101
vi Joining the Fray
5 The First and Second Congo Wars (1996–2003):
Ethnic Ties, Refugee Flows and Commitment Problems 105
A Brief Outline of the Wars 106
Rwanda 111
Uganda 116
Angola and Namibia 121
Zimbabwe 125
Conclusions 127
6 The Afghan Civil War (1978–2001): Invasion Versus Military Aid 129
The Soviet Invasion 129
Soviet-Afghan Relations through the Saur Revolution 130
The Decision to Invade 135
Conclusions from the Soviet Invasion 148
Foreign Reactions to the Soviet Invasion 150
The Post-Soviet/Pre-US Invasion Environment 163
Overall Conclusions from Afghanistan 171
7 Conclusions, Extensions, Implications for Policy and Avenues for
Future Research 175
Summary of the Work’s Main Findings 176
Extensions 183
Implications for Policy 185
Avenues for Future Research 187
Bibliography 191
Index 209
To Erin
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List of Figures and Tables
Table 2.1 Probable Settlements and State Motives for Joining 31
Figure 2.1 Revealed Information and Shifting Bargaining Ranges 34