Job projections for Montana's industries and occupations

2006·2 MB·English

by  Montana. Dept. of Labor and Industry. Research and Analysis Bureau

331. 12
E 1 ,i pm
1996-2006
Montana's
Job Projections for
and Occupations
Industries
1996 - 2006
Published August 1998 by the Office of Research and Analysis
Montana Department of Labor and Industryi^f^it.^.^
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Other Sources of Montana Labor Market Information
In Publications:
Thefollowingpublicationsareavailable, atnocharge, fromtheDepartmentofLaborand
Industry's OfficeofResearchandAnalysis:
Census ofFatal Occupational Injuries—Includes informationonwork-related
fatalitiesinMontanaandtheU.S.
Countylabormarketinformation flyers—Provideinformation onlargestprivate
employers,employmentbyindustry,employmentandunemploymentstatistics,
population,percapitaincome, localinformation resources,etc. forMontanacounties
withlai^erpopulations.
Job Projections forMontana's Industries and Occupations—Presentsinformation
developedtohelppeopleanticipatewhichindustriesandoccupationsarelikelyto
showjob growthinthenearfuture, andwhicharenot.
Montana Employment and Labor Force Trends—Presents information onstate-
wideandcountylabormarketinformation. Informationisalsoincludedonemploy-
mentbyindustry,femaleemploymentbyindustry, averagehoursandearnings,tally
ofnewbusinessfirms, andprevailingwageratesforaliencertification.
Montanalabormarket informationflyer—Statewidelabormarket informationon
largestprivateemployers,employmentbyindustry,employmentandunemployment
statistics,population,percapitaincome, etc.
Montana Occupational Injuries and Illnesses—Includesinformation onwork-
relatedinjuriesandillnesses, includingaccident ratesandfrequenciesbyindustry.
ProfileoftheMontana Worker—Apublication ofcharts andgraphsprovidinga
comprehensiveprofileofMontanaanditslaborforce.
Statistics in Brief—Singlepage referencewhichincludesdataonemployment and
unemploymentbycounty, laborforceandservicedeliveryareas.
Wage Information publications—Includeinformational wagerates byoccupation.
On the State of Montana Electronic Bulletin Board:
MontanalabormarketinformationisavailableontheStateofMontanaelearonicbulletin
boardat 1-406-444-4851 (fromoutsideMontana) orat 1-800-803-6393 (from insideMon-
tana). Acomputerandmodemarerequired.
On the Internet:
TheDepartmentofLaborandIndustry'sOffice ofResearchandAnalysisplacesmuchof
itslabormarketinformation ontheInternetathttp://jsd.dH.mt.gov/lmi/lmi.htm
Listingsof jobopenings and State ofMontanajobvacancies can be foundatthe StateJob
Service'sself-direaedjobsearchsystemaddressontheInternet at http://jsd.dli.mt.gov/
Inaddition,Montanajobopenings arepublishedonAmerica'sJobBankontheInternet
WorldWideWebNetwork.MembersofthepublicinterestedinusingtheInternetcan
contarttheirpubliclibraries, collegesanduniversitiestoseeiftheyhaveInternetaccessor
tofindoutifthere'sacommercialserviceproviderintheircommunitiestosubscribeand
useInternetonapersonalcomputer.
Job Projections for Montana's
and Occupations
Industries
-
996 2006
1
Published August 1998 by the
Montana Department of Labor & Industry's
Office of Research & Analysis
State of Montana
Marc Racicot, Governor
Montana Department of Labor St Industry
Pat Haffey, Commissioner
For more information, contact the Office of Research and
Analysis; P.O. Box 1728; Helena MT 59624
http://jsd.dli.mt.gov/lmi/lmi.htm MONTANA
406-444-2430 / FAX [phone] Department of
Toll free within Montana 800-633-0229 Labor&Industry
Toll free outside Montana 800-541-3904 ^^^ Office of
TDD 406-444-0532 or 800-354-8830 Research&Analysis
Acknowledgments
ThefollowingOfficeofResearch and Analysisstaffmembers
workedtogetherproducingthispublication:
State Economist PhilBrookspreparedtheMontana industry
projections withtheassistanceofStateStatisticianBob
Liffring—and alsowrotethejobprojectionsnarrativefor
Montana'sindustries. ResearchSpecialistTomCawleyprepared
theoccupationalprojertions.JulieHuntingtoneditedthepublica-
tionwiththehelpofTinaHash.
Table of Contents
Introduction
JobProjectionsNarrative forMontana's Industries, 1996-2006 3
MontanaJob Projectionsby Industry Sectorand Subsector 8
Job Projections Narrative for U.S. Industries, 1996-2006. 10
U.S.Job Projections by Industry Sector 11
Job Projections Narrative forMontana's Occupations, 1996-2006 12
MontanaJob Projections Ranked byTotal Growth 15
MontanaJob Projections Ranked Alphabetically byOccupation (yellowpages) 27
Job Projections Narrativefor U.S. Occupations, 1996-2006 39
Methodology Used in MakingMontana IndustryJob Projections 42
Methodology Factors byMontana Industry Sectorand Subsector 45
Methodology Used in Making Montana OccupationalJob Projections 47

Introduction
The Need for JobTrend Information
Accesstothe latestjobtrend information iscrucialtoeveryone involved in Montana's
employment piaure. To meetthat need,theDepartmentofLaborand Industry'sOfficeof
ResearchandAnalysis developsindustryandoccupational jobprojectionsannuallyto help
peopleanticipatewhichindustriesandoccupationsarelikelytoshowjobgrowth inthe near
future, andwhicharenot. Businesses, government agencies, educators, researchers,job
trainingprogram planners, studentsandjobseekersshouldall benefit.
—
1996 2006 Montana Job Projections
TheindustryandoccupationaljobprojeaionsforMontanafeatured inthispublication
weremadetotheyear2006 basedondatafrom 1996 andprevious years, usingmethodology
detailedonpages42-48. Resultingjob numbers areestimated numbers—andall information
appliestothestateasawhole. Projeaionsweremadepartlyunderthe assumptionthatpast
employmenttrendswillcontinue,that relationshipswithotherfactorssuchaspopulation
willcontinue,andthatoureconomy'sinstitutionalframeworkwillnotundergoradical
changes.
Comparable National Information
Someinformationon national industryandoccupationaljobprojectionsfor 1996-2006is
incorporatedinthispublicationsothatpeoplecanseehowMontana'sjobprojertions
comparewithnationalprojectionsmadeforthesametimeperiod. Peopleinterestedin
seeingmoredetailedinformationonnationalprojectionsshouldconsulttheNovember 1997
issueoftheMonthlyLaborReview,publishedbytheU.S. DepartmentofLabor'sBureauof
LaborStatisticsorvisitthebureau'sInternetwebsiteathttp://stats.bls.gav/
For More Information
Ifyouhave questionsabout information includedinthis publication,pleasecontaausat
the Office ofResearch and Analysis, Montana Department ofLaborand Industry,
MT TDD
P.O. Box 1728, Helena, 59624, [phone] or [phone].
The informationincludedinthispublicationisalsoaccessibleonourInternetwebsite at
http://]sd.dlumtgjuAmiAmuhtm
Wewill do ourbestto provideinformation in accessibleformat, on request, incompliance
withtheAmericanswithDisabilitiesAct.
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1
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Job Projections for Montana's Industries, 1996-2006
Althoughthe futureis nevercertain, it is useful to lookaheadandtrytodetermine what
generally may happen interms ofthenumberofjobssupported withinMontana'seconomic
sectors. Mostjob growth involves wageandsalaryjobs;consequently, wageandsalaryjobs
will beemphasized inthis narrative. Self-employmentjobsarean importantpart ofthe
Montanaeconomy andalsowillbehighlighted.
Becauseofthe inherent uncertainty inpredictingthefuture, all oftheprojections pre-
sented hereshould be interpreted as only an approximation ofthetruelevel ofjobs overall
orforagiven industry.
About 9,400 New Jobs aYear Projected through 2006
Atotal ofroughly94,000jobs, ofwhich 72,000 areestimatedto be wage andsalary
(payroll) jobs, areprojectedtobe created inMontanabetween 1996 and 2006. Thistranslates
toapproximately9,400jobs, or 1.8percent growth,peryear.
Most Job Growth in Services-Producing Sectors
Mostjob growth isprojectedto be intheservices-producingsegment ofthe Montana
economy,whichiscomprisedofindustriesthatdo notproduce aphysical ortangibleprod-
uct. Muchofthisgrowthisprojectedto beineatinganddrinkingestablishments, health
services, businessservices,socialservices,publiceducationalservices, general merchandise
—
stores, andrecreationalservices withcontinuingpopulationgrowthduringthe remainder
ofthe 1990s andintothenextcenturyactingasthemainforce behindjob increasesinthose
sectors.
Job Growth in Goods-Producing Sectors Small but Important
Thegoods-producingsegment ofMontana'seconomy isforecasttogrow by about 5,000
wageandsalaryjobs, plusafewthousandself-employmentjobs,through2006. Although
this growthismuchmoremodestthanforservice-typesertors,itisneverthelessimportant.
Most ofthe goods-producinggrowth (estimated4,000payrolljobsand nearlyall oftheself-
employment) isinconstruction,wherejob growthisprimarilyrelatedtopopulationin-
creasesandassociatedhousingandcommercialbuildingrequnements. Durablegoods
manufacturing (productswith anexpeaed lifeof3 years ormore) mayadd atotal of
roughly3,000 additional goods-producingjobs, inspiteofthefaathatwoodproducts
manufarturingisprojeaedtodecline.
Basically, zerojobgrowthoverall isprojectedfornondurablegoodsmanufacturing. This
nongrowth isprincipallybecauseofprojecteddecreasesin food productsbeingonlybal-
ancedbypositivegrowth inmost othernondurablemanufaaurmgsectors. Production
agriculture,theraisingofcropsand livestock, isalsoexpeaedto continueits longdeclinein
jobnumbers.
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Finally, asmalldecreasein miningjobsisprojectedoverthe 1996-2006timeperiod.
Projeaeddeclinesinoil andgas miningemployment aspart ofaprojectednational de-
crease, istheprimaryreasonfortheMontanaminingemploymentdecline.Pleaserefertothe
tal^onpages8-9forrnorecktailedpnyeaumsforhmadyd^nediridustri^
Services Jobs
Narrowlydefined, servicesis amajorpart ofthe broaderservice-producingsegmentof
theMontanaeconomy. It isprojectedtoincreasebyabout 38,000wage andsalaryjobs
between 1996and2006, andby roughly 10,000self-employmentjobs. These increases
accountforalittlemorethanhalfthetotaljobscreatedoverthistimeperiod. {Information in
thetableonpages8-9detailsthevarietyofconsumer,producer,andprofessionalservicesincludedinthis
cate-gfry)
Withintheservicessector, private health services isexpeaedto increasebyabout 8,000
payrolljobs asa result ofgeneralpopulation growthandthe normal agingofMontana's
population. Self-employmentjobgrowthprobablywillbeinthehundreds..
Business services isprojectedto increase by roughly7,000jobs between 1996and 2006,
includingself-employmentjobs. Majorcomponentsofthissubsertorincludetemporaryhelp
agenciesthatsupplyworkerstovariousindustries, buildingmaintenanceservices, computer
servicesandequipment rentalbusinesses. Growthinthisindustryispart ofanationaltrend
toward moreuseoftemporaryemployeesandoutsidecontractorsformaintenance and
otherservices.
Private social services isprojeaedto increasebyabout4,000payrolljobs overthe
period. This ispartlythe result ofthenationaltrendtowardshiftingcounselingandresiden-
tialtreatmentprogramsawayfromsituationswheremedicaldoctorsareinvolved. Social
servicesincludenonmedical individualandfamilysocialservices, nonmedical residential
care, childdaycareservices—alongwithjobtrainingandvocational rehabilitationservices.
Pieces ofthe recreationandtravel industryarelocatedwithinthe narrowlydefinedser-
vicescategory, namely hotels and other lodgingplaces and amusement and recreational
services. Thislattersubseaorisprojeaedto increaseby approximately3,000payrolljobs
between 1996and2006,withadditional self-employment alsolikely. Hotelsandother
lodgingplaces isprojectedto increasebyabout 2,000jobs.
Thenarrowly-definedservicescategoryalso includestheengineeringand management
servicessubseaor, which isprojectedto increaseby roughly2,000payrolljobsthrough
2006. Probablyathousandormoreself-employmentjobswillalsobecreated.
Retail Trade Jobs
Retail tradeis projeaedto addabout 23,000payroll jobsto Montana'seconomy between
1996 and2006, andapproximately4,000self-employmentjobs. Thiscombined increase
accountsfor 30percent ofthetotaljobscreated.
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