ITF Roundtable Reports Quantifying the Socio-economic Benefits of Transport

140 Pages·2017·3.668 MB·English

by  OECD

Quantifying
160
the Socio-economic
Benefits of Transport
Roundtable Report
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The
opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official
views of OECD member countries.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries
and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Please cite this publication as:
ITF (2017), Quantifying the Socio-economic Benefits of Transport, ITF Roundtable Reports, OECD
Publishing, Paris.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789282108093-en
ISBN 978-92-82-10808-6 (print)
ISBN 978-92-82-10809-3 (PDF)
Series: ITF Roundtable Reports
ISSN 2074-3378 (print)
ISSN 2074-336X (online)
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use
of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli
settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
Photo credits: Cover © Maciej Noskowski/iStockphoto.com.
Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.
© OECD 2017
You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and
multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable
acknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights
should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall
be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie
(CFC) at [email protected].
The International Transport Forum
The International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 57 member countries. It
acts as a think tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers. ITF is
the only global body that covers all transport modes. The ITF is politically autonomous and
administratively integrated with the OECD.
The ITF works for transport policies that improve peoples’ lives. Our mission is to foster a deeper
understanding of the role of transport in economic growth, environmental sustainability and social
inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.
The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport. We act as a platform for discussion and pre-
negotiation of policy issues across all transport modes. We analyse trends, share knowledge and promote
exchange among transport decision-makers and civil society. The ITF’s Annual Summit is the world’s
largest gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.
The Members of the ITF are: Albania, Armenia, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China (People’s Republic of), Croatia,
Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands,
New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States.
International Transport Forum
2, rue André Pascal
F-75775 Paris Cedex 16
[email protected]
www.itf-oecd.org
ITF Roundtable Reports
ITF Roundtable Reports present the proceedings of ITF roundtable meetings, dedicated to specific
topics notably on economic and regulatory aspects of transport policies in ITF member countries.
Roundtable Reports contain the reviewed versions of the discussion papers presented by international
experts at the meeting and a summary of discussions with the main findings of the roundtable. This work
is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and
arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of International Transport Forum
member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or
sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the
name of any territory, city or area.

TABLE OF CONTENTS – 5

Table of contents
Executive summary ................................................................................................................................ 9
Chapter 1. Improving transport cost-benefit analysis: Overview and findings ............................ 11
by Daniel Veryard
Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 12
Strategies to improve the practice and relevance of transport CBA ............................................ 13
Incorporating reliability benefits in CBA .................................................................................... 19
Incorporating wider economic impacts in CBA .......................................................................... 26
Notes ............................................................................................................................................ 33
References ................................................................................................................................... 35
Chapter 2. The valuation of travel-time variability ......................................................................... 39
by Mogens Fosgerau
Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 40
Some broader perspectives .......................................................................................................... 48
Estimating the parameters ........................................................................................................... 50
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 52
Notes ............................................................................................................................................ 54
References ................................................................................................................................... 55
Chapter 3. Forecasting travel-time reliability in road transport:
A new model for the Netherlands ............................................................................................. 57
by Marco Kouwenhoven and Pim Warffemius
Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 58
Methodology ................................................................................................................................ 59
Data .............................................................................................................................................. 62
Testing alternative empirical relations for travel-time reliability ................................................ 65
A new empirical relation for the Netherlands .............................................................................. 70
Policy implications ...................................................................................................................... 74
Conclusions and future steps ....................................................................................................... 76
Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... 79
Notes ............................................................................................................................................ 79
References ................................................................................................................................... 80
Chapter 4. Estimating wider economic impacts in transport project prioritisation
using ex-post analysis ................................................................................................................ 83
by Glen Weisbrod
Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 84
Defining and measuring wider economic benefits and impacts .................................................. 85
Development of evidence-based planning and analysis methods in the US ................................ 92
Use of case study and empirical analysis findings .................................................................... 101
QUANTIFYING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT — © OECD/ITF 2017
6 – TABLE OF CONTENTS
Implications for benefit accounting and decision support systems ........................................... 103
References ................................................................................................................................. 106
Chapter 5. Incorporating wider economic impacts within cost-benefit appraisal ...................... 109
by Anthony J. Venables
Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 110
The effects of a transport improvement ..................................................................................... 111
Proximity and productivity ........................................................................................................ 113
Investment and changes in land-use .......................................................................................... 115
Employment impacts ................................................................................................................. 118
Predicting quantity changes ....................................................................................................... 120
Summary and conclusions ......................................................................................................... 124
Notes .......................................................................................................................................... 125
References ................................................................................................................................. 126
Appendices .......................................................................................................................................... 128
Appendix I. Accessibility and productivity .............................................................................. 128
Appendix II. Investment and land-use change ......................................................................... 129
Participants list .................................................................................................................................. 131
Figures
Figure 1.1. Relationship between standard CBA and final economic effects of a transport project ..... 12
Figure 1.2. Scope of CBA versus economic impact analysis ................................................................ 16
Figure 1.3. Example of approach to estimating travel-time savings and reliability benefits ................ 20
Figure 1.4. Example travel time histogram (extreme events excluded three standard deviations
above the average) .............................................................................................................. 24
Figure 1.5. Framework for separating user benefits from wider economic impacts ............................. 26
Figure 2.1. Utility rates ......................................................................................................................... 42
Figure 2.2. Utility rates in the step model ............................................................................................. 44
Figure 2.3. Utility rates in the slope model ........................................................................................... 46
Figure 2.4. Theory and data .................................................................................................................. 51
Figure 3.1. The role of the transport models LMS/NRM and the post-processor LMS-BT in CBA .... 60
Figure 3.2. Travel-time distributions for four routes with different characteristics .............................. 64
Figure 3.3. Travel time per km versus standard deviation per km ........................................................ 65
Figure 3.4. Travel time versus standard deviation fitted with a linear function .................................... 66
Figure 3.5. Travel time per km versus standard deviation per km fitted with a linear relation and
a cubic polynomial .............................................................................................................. 67
Figure 3.6. Congestion index versus coefficient of variation fitted with a power law and with an
exponential function ........................................................................................................... 69
Figure 3.7. Travel time versus standard deviation fitted with a power law and a cubic polynomial .... 70
Figure 3.8. Mean delay versus standard deviation fitted with a combination of a linear and a
logarithmic function ............................................................................................................ 71
Figure 3.9. Variability and delay relations for 250 routes for the morning peak .................................. 71
Figure 3.10. Results of fits for mean delay versus standard deviation under several choices
of the data analysis .............................................................................................................. 73
Figure 3.11. Mean delay versus standard deviation fitted with a linear function ................................... 73
QUANTIFYING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT — © OECD/ITF 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS – 7
Figure 3.12. Ratio of travel-time benefits and reliability benefits for three projects, each for
two variants and two economic scenarios (high and low, figure adapted from 4Cast) ..... 76
Figure 4.1. Distinctions between CBA and EIA (US) .......................................................................... 85
Figure 4.2. Distinctions between CBA and EIA: Coverage of welfare and GDP effects (UK) ............ 86
Figure 4.3. Motivations for highway investments................................................................................. 94
Figure 4.4. Time lag in economic growth effects following highway investments .............................. 94
Figure 4.5. Relative concentration of industries by size of labour market ............................................ 97
Figure 4.6. Population concentration and manufacturing wage rates among counties
in central Appalachia .......................................................................................................... 98
Figure 4.7. Distribution of commuting time (cumulative per cent) .................................................... 100
Figure 5.1. The effects of a transport improvement ............................................................................ 112
Figure 5.2. Commercial development ................................................................................................. 117

Tables
Table 1.1. Approaches to valuing reliability benefits .......................................................................... 23
Table 3.1. Characteristics of selected routes ........................................................................................ 62
Table 3.2. Best fit coefficients for the empirical relation between the standard deviation and the
mean delay (equation 9) for highway routes ...................................................................... 72
Table 3.3. Best fit coefficients for the empirical relation between the standard deviation and the
mean delay (equation 9) for other routes ............................................................................ 74
Table 4.1. Multi-criteria rating factors used for prioritisation (UK Appraisal Table is also
included for comparison) .................................................................................................... 90
Table 4.2. Sensitivity of industries to access measures ....................................................................... 98
Table 4.3. List of transport changes that are economic model inputs ................................................ 101
Table 5.1. Predicting quantity changes .............................................................................................. 123
Table A.1. Accessibility and productivity .......................................................................................... 129

QUANTIFYING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT — © OECD/ITF 2017