Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics

236 Pages·1989·20.993 MB·English

by  Edward G. Carmines, James A. Stimson

Issue Evolution

ISSUE EVOLUTION
Race and the Transformation
of American Politics
EDWARD G. CARMINES
JAMES A. STIMSON
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY
Copyright © 1989 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street,
Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press,
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Carmines, Edward G.
Issue evolution: race and the transformation of American politics
Edward G. Carmines and James A. Stimson.
p. cm.
Bibliography: p. Includes index.
ISBN 0-691-07802-5
ISBN 0-691-02331-X, pbk.
1. United States—Race relations—Political aspects. 2. Afro-Americans—Politics
and government. 3. United States—Politics and government—1945—
4. Voting—United States—History—20th century.
I. Stimson, James A. II. Title.
E185.615.C35 1989 323.1'196073—dcl9 88-25463
First Princeton Paperback printing, 1990
10 9 8 7 6 5
CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES Vll
LIST OF TABLES ix
PREFACE Xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Xvi
1 The Dynamics of Issue Evolution 3
2 The Politics of Race: From Roosevelt to Reagan 27
3 The Politics and Policy of Race in Congress 59
4 Political Activism and the Party System 89
5 The Ideological and Partisan Transformation of
Racial Issues 115
6 Modeling Change in Mass Identification 138
7 On the Structure and Sequence of Issue Evolution 159
8 Racial Issue Evolution: Strategy, Chance, and
Opportunity 184
BIBLIOGRAPHY 199
INDEX 209

LIST OF FIGURES
2.1 Vote for Democratic Presidential Candidates in the
Black Precincts of Twenty-four Southern Cities, 1952-
1972. 46
2.2 Number of Paragraphs on Race in Party Platforms,
1932-1980. 55
2.3 Racial Priority Index of Party Platforms, 1932-1980. 56
3.1 Senate Racial Voting Scales by Party, 1945-1980. 63
3.2 House Racial Voting Scales by Party, 1945-1980. 64
3.3 Senate Interparty Desegregation Differences, Actual
and Intervention Model. 68
3.4 House Interparty Desegregation Differences, Actual
and Intervention Model. 78
3.5 Autocorrelations of Annual Racial Voting Scales in
Senate, 1945-1978. 85
3.6 Racial Voting Correlated with 1964 Base Year in Sen-
ate, 1946-1978. 86
3.7 Racial Voting Correlated with Eighty-ninth Congress
for House of Representatives, 1946-1978. 88
4.1 The Age Composition of Party Activists, 1956-1984. 98
4.2 Percentage of Activists Among Strong and Weak Party
Identifiers, 1956-1984. 99
4.3 Percentage of Campaign Workers Among Strong and
Weak Party Identifiers, 1956-1984. 101
4.4 Liberalism Among Active and Nonactive Party Identi-
fiers, 1972-1984. 102
4.5 Desegregation Attitudes of Party Activists and Identi-
fiers, 1952-1980. 103
4.6 Desegregation Attitudes of Party Activists Weighted
by Degree of Activity, 1952-1980. 105
4.7 Desegregation Attitudes of Party Activists and Mass
Party Images on Desegregation, 1952-1980. Ill
4.8 Desegregation Attitudes of Party Activists and Mass
Party Images on Desegregation, Interparty Difference,
1952-1980. 112
6.1 Four Hypothetical Models of Partisan Change. 139
6.2 Mean Party Positions on Government Responsibility
for Jobs and Standard of Living: A Reconstructed Time
Series. 147
vn
LIST OF FIGURES
6.3 The Decay of Interparty Polarization on the Jobs and
Standard of Living Issue. 148
6.4 The Desegregation Attitudes of Party Identifiers,
1945-1980. 150
6.5 The Growth of Party Differentiation on Desegregation:
Actual and Predicted. 153
6.6 Growing Party Differentiation on Desegregation: Con-
gress and the Mass Electorate. 155
7.1 The Sequence of Issue Evolution. 160
7.2 Racial Liberalism in the Senate and House of Repre-
sentatives by Party, 1945-1980. 163
7.3 Polarizing Clarity of Party Racial Issue Stands and Is-
sue Public Affect Toward the Two Parties. 165
7.4 Racial Liberalism of Democratic and Republican Party
Identifiers. 168
7.5 Senate and Party Identifier Alignments Together (Net,
Democratic minus Republican Positions). 174
7.6 Senate, House, and Party Identifier Alignments To-
gether (Net, Democratic minus Republican Positions). 175
Vlll
LIST OF TABLES
2.1 Percentage of Blacks in Central Cities of Twelve Larg-
est SMSA, 1930-1970 33
2.2 Proportion of Blacks Registered to Vote in Southern
States, 1960-1970 49
3.1 Election Outcomes and Partisan Change: Some Hypo-
thetical Effects 65
3.2 Senate Party Differences on Desegregation: An Inter-
vention Model 67
3.3 Racial Liberalism and Conservatism in the Eighty-
fifth Senate, 1957-1958 69
3.4 Racial Liberalism and Conservatism in the Eighty-
ninth Senate, 1965-1966 72
3.5 House Party Differences on Desegregation: A Dual In-
tervention 77
3.6 Two Intervention Models of Racial Issue Polarization
in the U.S. House of Representatives 81
4.1 Party Image as a Function of Activist Attitudes: Two
Regressions 113
5.1 Levels of Issue Constraint by Time Period and Issue
Type (average gammas between issues) 122
5.2 The Dimensions of Racial Attitudes: A Principal Fac-
tor Analysis (with varimax rotation) 124
5.3 Principal Component Analysis of Political Issues and
Racial Attitudes, by Cognitive Ability Group 127
5.4 Principal Component Analysis of Political Issues Con-
trolling for Racial Attitudes, by Cognitive Ability
Group 128
5.5 Principal Component Analysis Controlling for Jobs
and Vietnam, by Cognitive Ability Group (in percent-
ages) 130
5.6 Principal Component Analysis of Political Issues and
Racial Attitudes, by Region and Race 131
5.7 Principal Component Analysis of Political Issues Con-
trolling for Racial Attitudes, by Region and Race 132
5.8 Correlations Between Political Issues and Liberal/
Conservative Dimension: 1972 133
5.9 Correlations Between Political Issues and Liberal/
Conservative Dimension: 1976 134
IX
LIST OF TABLES
6.1 Four Models of Issue Evolution 152
6.2 The Evolution of Interparty Differences on Desegrega-
tion: A Dynamic Growth Model of Issue Evolution 153
7.1 Alignment of Racial Attitudes and Party Identifica-
tion: Two Transfer Function Models 173
7.2 Mass Issue Alignment as a Function of the Polariza-
tion of Party Affect and the Clarity of Party Positions 176
7.A Regression Respecification of Table 7.1 182
7.B Regression Respecification of Table 7.2 183