Islamism, Crisis and Democratization: Implications of the World Values Survey for the Muslim World

256 Pages·2020·11.835 MB·English

by  Hussein Solomon, Arno Tausch

Perspectives on Development in the Middle East
and North Africa (MENA) Region
Hussein Solomon
Arno Tausch
Islamism,
Crisis and
Democratization
Implications of the World Values Survey
for the Muslim World
Perspectives on Development in the Middle
East and North Africa (MENA) Region
SeriesEditor
AlmasHeshmati,SogangUniversity,Seoul,Korea(Republicof)
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(cid:129)
Hussein Solomon Arno Tausch
Islamism, Crisis and
Democratization
Implications of the World Values Survey
for the Muslim World
HusseinSolomon ArnoTausch
UniversityoftheFreeState UniversityofInnsbruck
Bloemfontein,SouthAfrica Innsbruck,Tirol,Austria
ISSN2520-1239 ISSN2520-1247 (electronic)
PerspectivesonDevelopmentintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)Region
ISBN978-3-030-22848-4 ISBN978-3-030-22849-1 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22849-1
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Contents
1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2 IslamIsReligionandState?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.2 UnderstandingPoliticalIslam/Islamism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.3 ConcludingInsights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
3 “TheAgeofIgnorance”andtheCivicCultureofDemocracy:
AMultivariateAnalysisBasedonWorldValuesSurveyData. . . . 23
3.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
3.2 Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
3.2.1 ThePerspectivesofEconomicTheory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3.2.2 MeasuringtheSubstanceoftheIslamistAnalysis. . . . . . 28
3.2.3 LiberalIslamandtheCivicCultureofDemocracy. . . . . . 31
3.3 MethodologyandData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
3.3.1 TheVariablesfortheFactorAnalyticalInvestigation. . . . 32
3.3.2 TheStatisticalMethods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
3.4 Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.4.1 TheOverallPicture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.4.2 ThePromaxFactorAnalyticalResults. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
3.4.3 TheCivicCultureofDemocracy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
3.5 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
StatisticalAppendix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
4 IslamisminPractice:PoliticosinPowerinEgypt,
SudanandTurkey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
4.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
v
vi Contents
4.2 Egypt:BetweentheIdealofPoliticalIslamandtheRealityof
PoliticalDesolation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4.3 IslamistSudan:GrowingAuthoritarianismandIncompetence. . . 91
4.4 Turkey’sAKP’sPathfromModerationtoAuthoritarianism. . . . . 95
4.5 ConcludingInsights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
5 PoliticalIslam:BetweenLutherandLocke. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5.1 DrawingtheWrongLessons?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5.2 ReflectingontheThesisofIslamicExceptionalism. . . . . . . . . . . 106
5.3 AMuslimMartinLutherandanIslamicReformation?. . . . . . . . 109
5.4 JohnLockeandanIslamicRestoration?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.5 ConcludingInsights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
6 TheReturnofReligiousAnti-Semitism?TheEvidencefromWorld
ValuesSurveyData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
6.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
6.2 Background. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124
6.3 MaterialsandMethods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
6.4 ResultsfromtheGlobalComparisons. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
6.5 ResultsfromthePromaxFactorAnalysisofWorldValues
SurveyData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
6.6 ResultsfromtheMultipleRegressionAnalysisofWorld
ValuesSurveyData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
6.7 DiscussiononOtherDriversofAnti-Semitism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
6.8 ReligionandAnti-Semitism:TheCross-NationalEvidencefrom
theADLData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
6.9 ConclusionsandProspects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Appendix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
7 TowardsanIslamicRestoration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
7.2 ExploringShari’a. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
7.3 ExaminingtheHadith. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
7.4 TheStatusofNon-MuslimsWithinanIslamicPolity. . . . . . . . . 172
7.5 CountryCaseStudies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
7.5.1 Tunisia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
7.5.2 Malaysia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
7.5.3 Indonesia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
7.5.4 SaudiArabia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
7.6 ConcludingInsights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
Contents vii
8 Conclusions.. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . 187
8.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
8.2 PoliticalDemocratization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
8.3 TheRoleofIntellectualDissidentsandtheAdoptionofNew
Technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
8.4 PrioritizingEconomicGrowth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192
8.5 WhattheEmpiricsfromGlobalOpinionSurveysTellUs. . . . . . 193
8.6 ConcludingInsights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
Literature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Appendices:TheIslamistConstraintsAgainstDemocracyintheMENA
Region.ACollectionofData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
AppendixA.MethodsandData. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
AppendixB.WorldValuesSurveyMuslimSamples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
AppendixC.DataBasedonVariousSurveys(ACRPS,
ArabBarometer,PEW...). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
AppendixD.TerrorSupportDataandIranianRegimeSupportDatafrom
PewResearchGlobalAttitudesProjectSpring2013Dataset. . . . . . . . 208
AppendixE.SupportfortheShari’aStateBasedon2012Pew—The
Worlds’Muslims. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
AppendixF.WorldValuesSurveyDataonGlobalMuslims. . . . . . . . 217
AppendixG.WorldValuesSurveyDataonOccidentalismintheMuslim
World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
FurtherSourcesandResources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
IndexofPersonsandAuthors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
IndexofSubjects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
List of Tables
Table3.1 TheMuslimsamplesandthegeneralsamplesintheWVS..... 33
Table3.2 Muslimtrustinthepolice.......................................... 38
Table3.3 Muslimtrustinthecourts.......................................... 42
Table3.4 Muslimsconfrontedbyviolentcrimeintheirneighbourhoods... 44
Table3.5 GlobalMuslimrespondentsansweringthequestionofwhatis
justifiableinasociety(scalerangingfrom1,never,to10,
always)................................................................. 45
Table3.6 Theglobalfactoranalyticalmodel................................ 48
Table3.7 ConstructinganovercomingofJahiliyyahIndex................ 48
Table3.8 OvercomingofJahiliyyahIndex—globalMuslimpopulation... 49
Table3.9 OvercomingofJahiliyyahIndex—globalpopulation............ 50
Table3.10 ComparisonsofMuslimsandnon-Muslimsindifferent
countries:overcomingofJahiliyyahIndex....................... 52
Table3.11 ConstructingaCivicCultureofDemocracyIndex.............. 52
Table3.12 Muslimpopulation—CivicCultureofDemocracyIndex....... 53
Table3.13 Globalpopulation—CivicCultureofDemocracyIndex........ 54
Table3.14 TheperformanceofMuslimcommunitiescomparedtothetotal
countrypopulation—CivicCultureofDemocracyIndex....... 56
Table3.15 Factorstructurematrixafterpromaxrotation..................... 63
Table3.16 Factorcorrelations.................................................. 68
Table3.17 Factorscores........................................................ 70
Table3.18 Thevaluedevelopmentindicesoftheoverallpopulation....... 74
Table3.19 ThevaluedevelopmentindicesoftheMuslimpopulation...... 78
Table3.20 Marginsoferrorat95%confidencelevel........................ 80
Table6.1 PercentofpeoplesayingthattheyrejecttohaveaJewish
neighbour............................................................ 132
Table6.2 Anti-SemitismbyglobaldenominationaccordingtotheWorld
ValuesSurvey....................................................... 133
ix
x ListofTables
Table6.3 AverageAnti-Semitism(rejectingJewishneighbours,scale
rangesfrom0to1)accordingtotheimportance,attributedto
religionaccordingtotheWorldValuesSurvey................... 134
Table6.4 AverageAnti-Semitism(rejectingJewishneighbours,scale
rangesfrom0to1)accordingtotheimportance,attributedto
religioninmajorglobaldenominations,accordingtotheWorld
ValuesSurvey....................................................... 134
Table6.5 Averageotherphobias(rejectingvarioustypesofneighbours,
scalerangesfrom0to1)accordingtotheimportance,attributed
toreligionbytheglobalpopulation,accordingtotheWorld
ValuesSurvey....................................................... 135
Table6.6 Thevariablesofthepromaxfactoranalyticalmodel............ 136
Table6.7 Totalvarianceexplainedbythefactoranalyticalmodel......... 136
Table6.8 Thefactorloadingsofthefactoranalyticalmodel............... 136
Table6.9 Correlationsbetweenthefactors................................... 137
Table6.10 Countryfactorscoresoftheanalysis.............................. 138
Table6.11 SocialconditionsworkingagainstAnti-Semitism............... 144
Table6.12 ExplainingglobalAnti-Semitism(rejectionofJewish
neighbours)accordingtothedataoftheWorldValuesSurveyby
multipleregression(standardOLSregression)................... 146
Table6.13 PartialcorrelationswithAnti-Semitism........................... 148
Table6.14 ThedriversofglobalAnti-Semitism(ADL,2014).............. 150
Table6.15 Theperformanceofdifferentdenominationsinovercoming
Anti-Semitism—aglobalcomparison,basedonWorldValues
Surveydata.......................................................... 152
Table6.16 Left-rightspectrumandthemeanrejectionratesofdifferent
typesofneighboursintheworldsystemaccordingtotheWorld
ValuesSurvey....................................................... 156
Table6.17 Marginsoferrorat95%confidencelevel........................ 157
TableB.1 TheMuslimsamplesintheWorldValuesSurvey,waves
1999–2014........................................................... 205
TableC.1 ISIS/ISIL/Daeshsupportrates..................................... 207
TableC.2 SupportingterrorattacksagainstAmerica........................ 207
TableC.3 SupportingtheMuslimbrotherhood.............................. 208
TableD.1 Suicidebombing/otherformsofviolenceagainstciviliantargets
arejustifiedinordertodefendIslam.............................. 208
TableD.2 VeryfavourableorsomewhatfavourableopinionofHamas... 209
TableD.3 Veryfavourableorsomewhatfavourableopinion
ofHezbollah......................................................... 209
TableD.4 Veryfavourableorsomewhatfavourableopinionofal-Qaeda... 210
TableD.5 Veryfavourableorsomewhatfavourableopinionofthe
Taliban............................................................... 210
TableD.6 Islamicextremistgroupsareaminorthreatornotathreattothe
country(countrywidedata)......................................... 210