Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy: World System and World Values Perspectives

370 Pages·2019·20.05 MB·English

by  Leonid Grinin

Perspectives on Development in the Middle East
and North Africa (MENA) Region
Leonid Grinin
Andrey Korotayev
Arno Tausch
Islamism, Arab
Spring, and the
Future of Democracy
World System and World Values
Perspectives
Perspectives on Development in the Middle
East and North Africa (MENA) Region
Series editor
Almas Heshmati, Sogang University, Seoul, Korea (Republic of)
This book series publishes monographs and edited volumes devoted to studies on
the political, economic and social developments of the Middle East and North
Africa(MENA).Volumescoverin-depthanalysesofindividualcountries,regions,
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Africa (MENA) Region allows for a deeper appreciation of the various past,
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Leonid Grinin Andrey Korotayev
(cid:129)
Arno Tausch
Islamism, Arab Spring,
and the Future of Democracy
World System and World Values Perspectives
With a Foreword by Dilshod Achilov
123
LeonidGrinin Arno Tausch
National Research University Higher University of Innsbruck
Schoolof EconomicsandInstitute Innsbruck, Austria
ofOriental Studies ofthe Russian
Academyof Sciences
Moscow,Russia
Andrey Korotayev
National Research University Higher
Schoolof EconomicsandInstitute
ofOriental Studies ofthe Russian
Academyof Sciences
Moscow,Russia
ISSN 2520-1239 ISSN 2520-1247 (electronic)
Perspectives onDevelopment in theMiddle EastandNorth Africa(MENA) Region
ISBN978-3-319-91076-5 ISBN978-3-319-91077-2 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91077-2
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Foreword
Islamic and Islamist resurgence, along with the evolving dynamics thereof, con-
tinues to shape the increasingly complex political landscape of Muslim societies
worldwide.WhilealothasbeenwrittenaboutwhyandhowIslamhasbeen(andis
being) instrumentalized in politics—often coined as a phenomenon of “Islamism”
or “Political Islam,” much confusion still remains in both public and academic
circles. Westill lack athoroughunderstandingofIslamism’s intricate nuances and
diverse manifestations in a rapidly changing and an ever-connected, techno-driven
global village. Perhaps it is not surprising given the Islamism’s multilevel, multi-
dimensional character. However, to date, little has been done to systematically
unpack the complex dimensions of modern Islamism, particularly from its genesis
to its becoming a dominant political force in the Muslim world. Furthermore, we
still know little about (both current and prospective) dynamic challenges/
opportunities that diverse Islamist political actors (old and new) present both in
domestic as well as in cross-national context.
By directly addressing this lacuna, this monograph—by Profs. Grinin,
Korotayev, and Tausch—enables the reader to better understand and contextualize
whatmodernIslamismentailsandthewaysinwhichitgrappleswithsociopolitical
challenges and opportunities in contemporary Muslim politics. Furthermore, the
authors effectively probe the extent to which ordinary Muslims negotiate support
for politically moderate and politically radical Islamism and how these attitudes
havechangedovertime.Indoingso,thisvolumeaccomplishesthreecriticaltasks:
(a) diagnosing the enduring and outstanding sociopolitical issues pertaining
democratization, (b) explaining the genesis and contingencies of Islamist political
ideology, and (c) forecasting the trajectory for potential triumphs and pitfalls of
modern Islamist movements, particularly in the MENA region.
Virtually all existing studies on modern Islamism acknowledge its complexity
and multifaceted nature. Conceptual overgeneralizations as well as simplistic
reductionism major pitfalls that hamper our understanding of a complex concept
such as Islamism. To avoid these pitfalls, engaging in a painstaking dialogue
between theory and empirical data is instrumental (Achilov 2016). Yet very few
studies have attempted to unpack the intricate nuances of Political Islam by
v
vi Foreword
engaging in rich qualitative-comparative as well as quantitative analyses in a
diverse cross-national context (Achilov 2015). To this end, this book makes a
timelycontributionthatadvancestheresearchfrontierontheevolvingdynamicsof
Islamism from a comparative and cross-national perspective.
In conceptualizing Islamism, the authors acknowledge that:
IslamismisanideologyandmovementassociatedwiththepoliticizationofIslamandthe
transformationoftheideasandvaluesofIslam(oftenintopoliticalslogansbutsometimes
evenintopoliticalprograms).Yet,theideologicalrangeofpoliticalIslamistsisbroadand
diverse.
While the overarching puzzle of the book is to unpack the nexus among
Islamism, Arab Spring, and evolving democratization patterns, the authors
remarkably accomplish this goal by providing nuanced and contextualized narra-
tives to the following, though not limited to, exhaustive questions:
(cid:129) What is modern Islamism and in what ways it continues to evolve?
(cid:129) How can we deconstruct and analyze the different dimensions of modern
Islamist ideologies?
(cid:129) What explains the divergence between moderate and radical forms of Islamist
ideologyintheMuslimworld?Howdomodernizationeffectsandgenderparity
fit into this equation?
(cid:129) Towhatextenthastherecentwaveofrevolutionsshaped thesocietalvaluesin
theMiddleEast?WhatdidtheArabSpringdeliverandinwhatwaysdiditfail?
Who participated in the Arab Spring uprising? Short and long-term
Implications?
(cid:129) How, if any, will moderate political Islamism influence the democratization
trajectoryinthepost-Arabspringspace?Underwhatconditionswillitsucceed
and in what ways may it fail?
(cid:129) How do ordinary Muslimsnegotiatethe tensions between supporting moderate
versus radical Islamism?
(cid:129) How do the emerging patterns and findings (from the analyses) help construct
tangible paths forward toward promoting civil liberties and robust political
rights in the Muslims world (particularly in the Middle East and North Africa
[MENA])?
This body of work presented by leading scholars who have written extensively
on the subject sheds timely light to these pressing questions that help advance
knowledge on deciphering the prospects of democratization in the Muslim world.
Perhaps themost distinguishing aspect ofthis scholarship isthat the authors invite
readers to view the familiar questions (that scholars have long grappled with) in a
completely new and fresh light. The breadth of historical accounts as well as the
scope of the contemporary issues are remarkably comprehensive. Said otherwise,
theexplanatoryconditionsinvolveallmajordomainsoflifeincludingcivilsociety,
political economy, human developmental metrics, critical historical junctures,
internationalrelations (includingtheexogenousinterventionistpoliciesfrom),and,
Foreword vii
of course, domestic politics. In short, the readers will find robust explications for
each of the abovementioned questions.
As it becomes clear as you read on, the authors construct complex arguments
that go beyond simplistic reductionism. Theoretically, the explanations are
grounded on the World Systems theoretical framework. This framework helps
drawsabigpictureoftheWorldpoliticsintermsofshiftingparadigmsofthepast
decade. This is significant given that the social science literature has been largely
silent on this matter. Particularly, the book makes a cohesive inquiry into the
macrolevel, world order systemic analysis in terms of how Muslim states position
themselves given the complex web of “clashing” international conflicts and com-
peting strategic interests. Empirically, extensive individual-level survey data (also
nested at the state-level aggregation) inform the findings. Finally, the emerging
nexus between theory and empirical analyses serve as a foundation for the policy
formulation in regard to the pressing questions listed above.
The book is organized into two broad parts. The first half examines both
diverging and converging patterns of genesis, diffusion, and evolution of modern
Islamism: in this process, the complexities and Islamism is unpacked in greater
detail.Uniquely,thebookengagesinacivilizationalcomparativeanalysisofIndia,
China, and MENA through the World Systems theoretical lens. This novel theo-
retical and methodological approach is both fresh and innovative which takes the
reader through a previously uncharted territory of Muslim politics.
By rightly highlighting that “Islamism not only spiritually but also functionally
permeates the social fabric of society,” the volume explores this venue further and
thereby addresses an uneasy task head-on: providing a context-rich elucidation
of the characteristics, intelligibility, and practical sociopolitical functionalities of
Islamism. The book successfully documents how diverse the Islamist actors are
(and havebeen)who are notmerelyboundedin politicalaffairs; rather, previously
less known aspects of Islamist diversity is expressively discussed.
In so doing, both social bases, along with humanistic value systems, are
accounted while the prevailing (and often simplistic) assumptions regarding
Islamismaredebunked.Atthesametime,theauthorsdonotshyawayfromraising
hard questions aboutshifting popular sentiments toward “moderate versus radical”
Islamism.Whatmakesthisvolumedistinctfromotherstudiesonthefieldisthatthe
proposedfunction-characteristictypology(e.g.,functionalities)ishighlyinnovative
(i.e., novel) in terms of how diverse manifestation of Islamism is embodied in
society at large.
Furthermore,conductingacarefulandnuancedanalysisoftheArabSpringmass
mobilizations,theauthorsalsopresentanelaboratesketchofpost-revolutionaryand
post-voluntaryeventsthatunfoldedinEgyptaswellasinYemen,Libya,andSyria.
The book also provides the primary source accounts in the post-revolution Egypt
following Chap. 5 (“Letters from Tahrir”). These raw accounts (letters) of the
events provide insightful, yet diverse context to the ongoing uneasy Egyptian
struggle for democracy.
viii Foreword
The second part of the book presents rich empirical account of how Muslims
negotiate the attitudinal sentiments toward radicalism, terrorism, relations with the
West, Islamophobia, Anti-Semitism, and collective political mobilization (e.g.,
massprotestengagement).Impressively,theaccountofwhoactuallyparticipatedin
the Arab Spring demonstrations, along with the individual demographic and
political-ideological indicators, is well documented. The analyses and findings are
grounded on empirical (e.g., factor analytical) examination of individual-level
quantitativesurveydata(nestedatcountry-levels) primarilysourcedfromtheArab
Barometer, Pew Research Center, World Values Survey, and other reputable
databases.
Central totheauthors’findingsistheemphasis that“itwilltake muchtime and
hard work” to promote liberal values in the MENA region: “not instead of the
Islamistonesbutincombinationwiththem.”Inotherwords,theauthorspositthat:
…onlythroughmoderateIslamisminteractingwithsecularpoliticalforceswilltheIslamic
worldbeabletoundergoaconsiderabletransformationofitssociety.Thisiscomplexand
contradictory, but perhaps the only real path to social development for many Islamic
countries.
Relatedly,thevolumeeffectivelyillustrateswhytheuseofforceisinsufficientto
combat radical and militarist Islamism and, in this regard, explicate how the
politically moderate Islamist voices may triumph over radicalism organically. In
doing so, the intervening exogenous factors (i.e., international variables, particu-
larly stemming from the West) are not discounted. In my humble view, the book
makesaprecisediagnosisthatthefutureofMuslimdemocratization(inwhichboth
secularandIslamistforcesmaycoexistandcompeteelectorally)restsonpreventing
misguided and ill-informed foreign interventions (particularly in the MENA
region).
Indeed,oneofthemostdistinctiveaccomplishmentsistheeffectiveassemblage
of large volume of comparative-qualitative and path-breaking quantitative data. In
addition to providing rich-contextualized explanations, the volume provides
insightful forecasts based on the current sociopolitical trajectories (particularly in
the MENA region). From this vantage, what makes this contributing particularly
uniqueisthatthemonographofferstangible,realistic,andinnovativepolicyvenues
thatcanhelpfosterconditionsconducivetobuildingpluralistsocietywithmoderate
Islamism playing an instrumental role.
This book is a product of scholarly collaboration (among three authors)
reflecting years in the making. Each author brings a unique perspective in
addressing the questions at hand. I applaud the authors for accomplishing such a
timely project which will help advance the debate on evolving dynamics of
democratization in the Muslim world.
Dr. Dilshod Achilov
Department of Political Science
University of Massachusetts–Dartmouth, USA
Foreword ix
References
Achilov D(2015)Whenactionsspeaklouderthanwords:examiningcollectivepoliticalprotests
inCentralAsia.Democratization23(4):699–722
Achilov D (2016) Revisiting political Islam: explaining the nexus between political Islam and
contentiouspoliticsintheArabWorld.SocSciQuarterly97(2):252–270