Is This a Private Fight or Can Anybody Join? : The Spread of Interstate War

279 Pages·2009·2.39 MB·English

by  Zachary C. Shirkey

is this a private fight or can
anybody join?
To My Family
is this a private fight or
can anybody join?
the spread of interstate War
zachary c. shirkey
St. John Fisher College, USA
© zachary c. shirkey 2009
all rights reserved. no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher.
zachary c. shirkey has asserted his right under the copyright, designs and patents act,
1988, to be identified as the author of this work.
published by
ashgate publishing Limited ashgate publishing company
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
shirkey, zachary c.
Is this a private fight or can anybody join? : the spread
of interstate war.
1. interstate relations. 2. national interest. 3. Military
policy. 4. escalation (Military science)
i. title
327.1'6-dc22

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
shirkey, zachary c.
Is this a private fight or can anybody join? : the spread of interstate war / by Zachary C.
shirkey.
p. cm.
includes bibliographical references and index.
isbn 978-0-7546-7585-3 (hardcover) -- isbn 978-0-7546-9690-2 (ebook)
1. intervention (international law) 2. intervention (international law)--case studies. i.
title.
jz6368.s47 2009
341.5’84--dc22
2009011728
isbn 9780754675853 (hbk)
isbn 9780754696902 (ebk.V)
contents
List of Tables and Figure vii
Acknowledgements ix
List of Abbreviations xi
1 The Puzzle of Why States Join Ongoing Wars 1
2 Previous Findings and a New Theory of Joining 11
correlates of joining 14
previous theories of joining 22
War, peace, and revealed information 25
revealed information and Leaving Wars 34
strategic delay and risk aversion 36
3 Statistical Analysis of the Spread of War 41
variables 42
Methods 45
Results: Unexpected events and joining 46
Results: Unexpected events and states Leaving Wars 56
conclusions 62
4 The Crimean War: Public Opinion, Divided Cabinets,
and the Partial Spread of War 65
state goals and beliefs 66
the drift to War and its spread 76
the decision for peace 88
conclusions 90
5 The First World War: The Growth of a World War 93
bulgaria 96
romania 103
italy 110
United states 123
ottoman empire 131
greece 139
portugal 146
vi Is This a Private Fight or Can Anybody Join?
termination of the War 150
conclusions 155
6 The Franco-Prussian War: The War that Refused to Grow 159
the build-Up to War 160
the antebellum crisis and early stages of the War 166
prussia triumphant 172
conclusions 174
7 Joining Since 1945: Balancing, Bandwagoning,
and the Changing Nature of Spoils 179
the vietnam War 181
the gulf War (1990–91) 193
conclusions 206
8 Conclusions, Extensions, and Avenues for Future Research 211
summary of the Work’s Main findings 212
extensions 217
suggestions for future research 220
Appendix: Coding for Unexpected Events, Regions, and Contiguity 223
Bibliography 239
Index 255
List of tables and figure
Tables
2.1 probable settlements and state Motives for joining 28
3.1 examples of types of Unexpected events 45
3.2 Joining War: Unexpected Events as One Variable 47
3.3 Joining War: Unexpected Events by Intensity 50
3.4 Joining War: Political vs. Military Events 51
3.5 Joining War: Alliance Variables Including First Month
joiners 53
3.6 Leaving War: Unexpected Events as One Variable 57
3.7 Leaving War: Unexpected Events and Regime Type 59
3.8 Leaving War: Disaggregated Unexpected Events and Regime
type 61
5.1 summary of state Motives for joining 157
9.1 descriptions of Unexpected events 229
9.2 List of regions 234
9.3 List of the foci of interstate Wars 235
Figure
2.1 revealed information and shifting bargaining ranges 30
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acknowledgements
i would like to thank emily copeland, kara drebitko, page fortna, erik gartzke,
robert jervis, paul Macdonald, jack Levy, peter Liberman, justine rosenthal,
ivan savic, david schmitt, charles tilly, harrison Wagner, nicole vangorder-
pratt, gregory Wawro, alex Weisiger, and several anonymous reviewers for
their comments, help, and advice on this and earlier drafts as well as on the data
collection. any mistakes are my own.