Is adolescence-onset antisocial behavior developmentally normative?

17 Pages·2010·0.2 MB·English

DevelopmentandPsychopathology22(2010),295–311
#CambridgeUniversityPress,2010
doi:10.1017/S0954579410000076
REGULAR ARTICLE
Is adolescence-onset antisocial behavior developmentally
normative?
GLENNI.ROISMAN,aKATHRYNC.MONAHAN,bSUSANB.CAMPBELL,cLAURENCESTEINBERG,d
ELIZABETHCAUFFMAN,eANDTHENATIONALINSTITUTEOFCHILDHEALTHANDHUMAN
DEVELOPMENTEARLYCHILDCARERESEARCHNETWORK
aUniversityofIllinoisatUrbana–Champaign;bUniversityofWashington;cUniversityofPittsburgh;dTempleUniversity;and
eUniversityofCalifornia,Irvine
Abstract
LargelybecauseoftheinfluenceofMoffitt’susefuldistinctionbetweenadolescence-limitedandlife-coursepersistentantisocialbehavior,ithasbecomeincreasingly
commontoviewproblembehaviorthatmakesitsfirstappearanceinadolescenceasdevelopmentallynormative.Thisstudyprospectivelyexaminedthelivesof
individualsintheNICHDStudyofEarlyChildCareandYouthDevelopmentwhosepatternsofantisocialbehaviorvariedwithrespecttoageofonsetand
stabilityfromkindergartenthroughage15.Consistentwithpastresearch,early-onset,persistentlydeviantyouthexperiencedmorecontextualadversityandevinced
higherlevelsofintraindividualdisadvantagesthantheirpeersfrominfancythroughmidadolescence.However,relativetoyouthwhonevershowedsignificantly
elevatedantisocialbehaviorthroughage15,childrenwhoshowedantisocialbehaviorprimarilyinadolescencealsoweremoredisadvantagedfrominfancyforward,
aswereyouthwhoonlydemonstratedsignificantexternalizingproblemsinchildhood.Findingsgenerallyreplicatedacrosssexanddidnotvaryasafunctionof
whetherantisocialbehaviorgroupsweredefinedusingT-scoresnormedwithinsexoridentifiedusinganempiricallydrivengroupingmethodappliedtorawdata.
Itiswellestablishedthatthereisboththeoreticalandclinicalutil- ited[AL]).WhereasALantisocialbehavioristheorizedtoreflect
ityindistinguishingbetweenantisocialadolescentswithachild- a developmentally normative, short-term deviation involving
hoodhistoryofexternalizingproblemsandthosewithoutsucha mimicryofantisocialpeers,LCPantisocialbehavioristhought
past. Preeminent among theories attempting to demarcate the tohaveitsrootsinearlyintraindividualrisks,suchasillhealth,a
precisewaysinwhichsuchgroupsdifferwithrespecttoetiology difficulttemperament,andsubtlecognitivedeficits,whicharein
andcourseisMoffitt’s(1993)influentialaccount,whichinitially turnamplifiedbychroniccontextualadversity(e.g.,poorparent-
focusedontwolifecoursepatternsofdeviantbehavior:onethat ing,poverty,absenceofaprimarycaregiver).
beginsinchildhoodandpersists(life-coursepersistent [LCP]) AlthoughMoffitt (1993)originallyreferencedtwopatterns
andonethatbeginsandendsinadolescence(adolescencelim- ofantisocialbehaviorthatcouldbedistinguishedbothwithre-
ThisstudyisdirectedbyaSteeringCommitteeandsupportedbyNICHD
throughacooperativeagreement(U10),whichcallsforscientificcollabora- (Harvard University), Vonnie C. McLoyd (University of North Carolina,
tionbetweenthegranteesandtheNICHDstaff.Thecontentissolelythere- ChapelHill),FredMorrison(UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor),PhilipNa-
sponsibilityofthenamedauthorsanddoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheof- der(Universityof California,SanDiego),MarionO’Brien(Universityof
ficialviewsoftheEuniceKennedyShriverNationalInstituteofChildHealth NorthCarolina,Greensboro),MargaretTreschOwen(UniversityofTexas,
andHumanDevelopment,theNational Institutesof Health,or individual Dallas),RossParke(UniversityofCalifornia,Riverside),RobertPianta(Uni-
membersoftheNetwork.CurrentmembersoftheSteeringCommitteeof versity of Virginia), Kim M. Pierce (University of Wisconsin–Madison),
theNICHDEarlyChildCareResearchNetwork(inalphabeticalorder)are A.VijayaRao(RTIInternational),GlennI.Roisman(UniversityofIllinois
JayBelsky(BirkbeckUniversityofLondon),CathrynBooth-LaForce(Uni- atUrbana–Champaign),Susan Spieker(Universityof Washington),Laur-
versityofWashington),RobertH.Bradley(UniversityofArkansasatLittle enceSteinberg(TempleUniversity),ElizabethSusman(PennsylvaniaState
Rock), Celia A. Brownell (University of Pittsburgh), Margaret Burchinal University),DeborahLoweVandell(UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine),and
(UniversityofNorthCarolina,ChapelHill),SusanB.Campbell(University MarshaWeinraub(TempleUniversity).Theage15dataassessmentofthe
ofPittsburgh),ElizabethCauffman(UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine),Alison NICHDStudyofEarlyChildCareandYouthDevelopmentwassupported
Clarke-Stewart(UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine),MarthaCox(Universityof viathefollowinggrantsfromtheNICHD:5U10HD025460-18,5U10HD0
NorthCarolina,ChapelHill),RobertCrosnoe(UniversityofTexas,Austin), 25447-18, 5U10HD025420-19, 5U10HD025456-18, 5U10HD025445-19,
JamesA.Griffin(NICHDProjectScientistandScientificCoordinator),Bon- 5U01HD033343-14, 5U10HD025451-19, 5U10HD025430-18, 5U10HD0
nie Halpern-Felsher (University of California, San Francisco), Willard 25449-18,5U10HD027040-18,and5U10HD025455-18.
Hartup (University of Minnesota), Kathryn Hirsh-Pasek (Temple Univer- Addresscorrespondenceandreprintrequeststo:GlennI.Roisman,De-
sity),DanielKeating(UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor),BonnieKnoke partmentofPsychology,UniversityofIllinoisatUrbana–Champaign,603
(RTIInternational),TamaLeventhal(TuftsUniversity),KathleenMcCartney EastDanielStreet,Champaign,IL61820;E-mail:[email protected].
295
296 G.I.Roismanetal.
specttoageofonset (preadolescentvs.adolescent)andpersis- Minnesota(Roisman,Aguilar,&Egeland,2004)andDune-
tenceovertime(ALvs.not),empiricaltestsofthetheory(Aguilar, din cohorts (Moffitt et al., 2002; Odgers et al., 2008) have
Sroufe,Egeland,&Carlson,2000;Moffitt,Caspi,Dickson,Silva, yielded evidence that antisocial behavior that first appears
&Stanton,1996)havemainlycomparedchildrenpersistentlyan- inadolescenceisnotalwayslimitedtoadolescence.Although
tisocial through adolescence (early-onset/persistent [EOP]) and lesslikelythantheirEOPcounterpartstoshowpersistentan-
thosewhoseantisocialbehavioremergesinadolescence(adoles- tisocialproblemsintoyoungadulthood,AOsaremorelikely
cenceonset[AO])withoneanotherandwithyouthwhoshowlit- to have antisocial problems than their NA counterparts as
tleevidenceofexternalizingproblemsthroughtheirmid-tolate youngadults,suggestingthatAOantisocialbehaviorisoften
teens(neverantisocial[NA]).Thelogicofthisapproachisthat moreensnaringthanhasbeenassumed.
itallowsfortestsofMoffitt’s(1993)theorythatexaminewhether OneexplanationforthefindingthatAOantisocialbehavior
(a)EOantisocialbehaviorisinvariablypersistent,(b)AOantiso- carrieslong-termrisksisthatindividualswhoseexternalizing
cialbehaviorisinfactlimitedtoadolescence,(c)individualswho problems begin earlyand thosewhose problem behavior be-
showEOPantisocialbehaviorareuniquelydistinguishablefrom gins in adolescence may carry a common set of antecedent
bothnonantisocialyouthandAOantisocialindividualsinterms risk factors, albeit to varying degrees. That is, those on the
ofthekindsofintraindividualandcontextualadversitytheyex- AOpathwaymayalsobetroubled,justlesssothanthosewhose
perienceintheirearlylives,and(d)adolescentonsetantisocial antisocialbehaviorbeginsduringchildhood.Thispossibilityis
individualsandnonantisocialyoutharesimilarwithrespectto consistentwiththemostrecentfollow-upoftheDunedincohort
thesesameintraindividualandcontextualfactors. (Odgersetal.,2008),whichrevealedthatbothmaleandfemale
EvidenceinsupportofMoffitt’stheoryisinmanyrespects participants on the AO antisocial pathway could be discrimi-
robust.First,longitudinalstudiesofantisocialbehaviorhave natedfromindividualswhoshowedlowlevelsofantisocialbe-
consistentlybeenabletoidentifybothasmallgroupofper- haviorthroughadolescenceonanumberofmeasuresofchild-
sistentlydeviantyouthcharacterizedbychronicantisocialbe- hoodadversityandintraindividualrisk.Specifically,intheOdgers
havior that emerges during childhood and persists into ado- etal.(2008)study,AOfemalescouldbedistinguishedfrom
lescence,aswellasindividualswhodemonstratenonotable consistentlylowexternalizerson3ofthe12childhoodriskfac-
historyofclinicallyelevatedantisocialbehaviorinchildhood, torsassessed(i.e.,maltreatment,maternalmalaise,andmaternal
yetbegintoshowsignificantdeviantbehaviorinadolescence IQ),andAOmalescarriedmorerisksthanconsistentlylowex-
(Aguilaretal.,2000;Blumstein&Cohen,1987;Farrington, ternalizersonhalf(6of12)oftheexaminedindicators(i.e.,low
1986; Moffitt et al., 1996). Second, and perhaps more criti- socioeconomicstatus,maltreatment,familyconflict,lowIQ,un-
cally,thereissomeevidencethatpersistentlytroubledyouth dercontrolledbehavior,andlowreadingachievement).(Persis-
canbediscriminatedonmeasuresofintraindividualfunction- tentlyantisocial participants experienced even more pervasive
ingandcontextualadversityinchildhoodfromthosewhobe- early adversity than consistently low externalizers, and could
gintoevinceantisocialbehaviorinadolescence(e.g.,Moffitt bedistinguishedfromlowexternalizerson10of12indicators
&Caspi,2001;butseeAguilaretal.,2000). ofadversityamongfemalesandall12indicatorsamongmales.)
Overtime,empiricaldatahavenotonlyconfirmedmanyas- ToexaminewhetherthedevelopmentalhistoriesofAOanti-
pectsofMoffitt’s(1993)accountbuthavealsohelpedtoupdate socialindividualsaremorelikethosewhoevinceEOantisocial
elementsofit.IthasbecomeapparentthatMoffitt’s(1993)orig- behaviorormorelikethosewhoareNA,inthecurrentstudywe
inaltheorywasnotfullyinclusiveofallantisocialtrajectories examinedthelivesofindividualswhowerecontinuouslyversus
subsequentlyidentifiedinlongitudinalstudies.Forexample,a discontinuouslyantisocialintheNICHDStudyofEarlyChild
smallgroupofindividualswhoshowelevatedantisocialbehav- Care and Youth Development (SECCYD). More specifically,
ior in childhood, but not adolescence (“recoveries” or “child- thepresentstudyexaminedthreeindicatorsofcontextualadver-
hoodlimiteds”[CLs]),hasbeenroutinelyidentifiedacrossstud- sity(maternalinsensitivity,economicdisadvantage,andsingle
ies(Aguilaretal.,2000;Moffittetal.,1996).Inaddition,Moffitt parenting) and three intraindividual risks (ill health, difficult
etal.(1996)initiallyprofferedthatindividualswhoshowedlittle temperament, and poor cognitive functioning) reliablyassoci-
ornoantisocialbehaviorinchildhoodandadolescence(“abstain- ated with higher levels of antisocial behavior and implicated
ers”)werelikelytobesocialmisfits(attributabletotheirstatis- in Moffitt’s theory (Dodge & Pettit, 2003; Moffitt et al.,
ticallyunusuallackofantisocialtendencies).However,follow- 1996;Nagin&Tremblay,2001).Wereasonedthat,ifAOanti-
up of these individuals into adulthood has actually yielded social behavior is indeed developmentally normative, there
evidencefortheirsuperioradaptation,eventhoughsuchindi- should be few differences in childhood between individuals
vidualsdescribethemselvesinadolescenceasovercontrolled whoevinceAOantisocialbehaviorandthosewhoareNAon
andsociallyinhibited(Moffitt,Caspi,Harrington,&Milne,2002). measures of early contextual adversity and intraindividual
Inadditionandofgreatestrelevanceforthecurrentreport, risk.Incontrast,ifAOantisocialbehaviorisnotpartofnorma-
thereissomeevidencethattheAOpathwaymaynotbeasbe- tive development, we would expect that the early histories of
nign as originally proposed. For instance, Aguilar et al. theseindividualssharecertainfeatureswiththehistoriesofindi-
(2000) demonstrated that AO antisocial individuals report vidualswhoseantisocialbehaviorappearsduringchildhood.
higher levels of life stress and internalizing problems than We examined contextual and intraindividual risks during
their NA peers. Furthermore, follow-up assessments of the three developmental periods: (a) early childhood (0–3 years),
Adolescence-onsetantisocialbehavior 297
(b)childhood(kindergartenthroughGrade6),and(c)adoles- andtheempiricallybasedSPGMapproach,therebyallowing
cence(age15).Althoughwewereespeciallyinterestedinex- us to ascertain whether substantive conclusions were sensi-
aminingwhethertheAOgroupsdifferedfromlowexternalizers tivetothegroupingtechniqueweemployed.
onmeasuresofcontextualadversityandintraindividualriskin
infancy(0–3)becausethesecontrastsprovidethemostfocused
Method
testsofthenormativityofthispatternofAOantisocialbehav-
ior,wealsodrewondatafromlaterassessmentsoftheNICHD
Participants
SECCYDcohortingradeschoolandmidadolescencetoexam-
ine whether antisocial groups continued to be discriminated FamilieswererecruitedtoparticipateintheNICHDSECCYD
fromyouthlowonexternalizingproblemsinwaysalreadyre- duringhospitalvisitstomothersshortlyafterthebirthofachild
flectedindataacquiredduringearlychildhood. in1991at10locationsintheUnitedStates.Duringselected24-hr
Althoughnotacentralfocusofthisreport,wealsoexam- intervals,allwomengivingbirthwerescreenedforeligibilityand
inedtheearlyhistoriesofindividualswhoseantisocialbehav- willingnesstobecontactedagain.Ofthe8,986motherswhogave
iorbeginsandendsinchildhood(CLs).Forexample,itisof birthduringthesamplingperiod,5,416(60%)agreedtobetele-
interest whether EOPs and CLs, both of whom show child- phonedin2weeksandmettheeligibilityrequirements(mother
hood-onsetantisocialproblems,havesimilarordistinctpro- over18,spokeEnglish,motherhealthy,babynotpartofamulti-
filesofearlycontextualadversityandintraindividualrisk.It plebirthortobereleasedforadoption,familyliveswithinanhour
is also significant whether the apparent desistence among ofresearchsite,neighborhoodnotdeemedtoodangerousbypo-
CLyouthovertimeisassociatedwithandperhapspromoted lice tovisit). Of that group, aconditionally random sample of
by increased contextual and other resources as such indi- 3,015wasselected(56%)fora2-weekphonecall.Thecondition-
vidualstransitiontoadolescence. ing assured adequate representation (at least 10%) of single
Note finally that externalizing groups were defined in two mothers,motherswithoutahighschooldegree,andethnicmi-
waysinthecurrentreport.First,wepresentanalysesusingana noritymothers(notmutuallyexclusive).Atthe2-weekcall,fam-
priori, theoretically driven method adapted from Moffitt et al. ilieswereexcludedifthebabyhadbeenhospitalizedformore
(1996)thatreliesondemarcating“clinicallysignificant”antiso- than7days,theyexpectedtomoveinthenext3years,orthey
cialbehaviorinchildhoodand/oradolescenceusingTscoresto couldnotbereachedinatleastthreeattemptsattelephonecontact.
definecutpoints.Themajoradvantageofthisapproachisthatis Atotalof1,525familieswereselectedforthecallaseligibleand
itinvolvestheuseofapsychologicallymeaningfulthresholdfor agreedtoaninterview.Ofthese,1,364completedahomeinter-
assessingproblematicbehavior.However,theMoffittetal.(1996) viewwhentheinfantwas1montholdandbecamestudypartic-
systemisopentothesamesetofcriticismsasothertheoretically ipants(foradditionaldetailsseehttp://secc.rti.org).
derivedapproachestogroupingindividuals:specifically,thede- Theresultingsamplewasdiverse:24%wereminority,11%
marcationofcutpointsandotherdecisionrulesspecifictothe ofthemothershadnotcompletedhighschool,and14%weresin-
systemcanberightlyunderstoodasarbitraryandnotnecessarily gleatthetimeoftheinfant’sbirth.Mothershadanaverageof
informed by the way externalizing problems are distributed 14.4yearsofeducation.Averagefamilyincomewas3.6times
within a given dataset. In addition, such methods (a) often the poverty threshold. The participating families were similar
result in the loss of a substantial number of participants who totheeligiblehospitalsampleintermsofmaternaleducation,
donotmeetcriteriaforanygroup(i.e.,areunclassifiable),and percentage in different ethnic groups, and presence of a hus-
(b)groupsbasedonTscoresinparticularcansuppresssexdiffer- band/partner in the household. Data for the current report are
encesinthatsuchscoresareoftennormedwithinsex. basedon990childrenwithdataonantisocialbehavior(asas-
In part because of these critiques, tools for deriving em- sessedbytheChildBehaviorChecklist [CBCL]and/orYouth
pirically based grouping solutions, such as semiparametric Self-Report [YSR]; Achenbach, 1991a, 1991b; 1997; Achen-
group modeling (SPGM; Nagin, 2005; Nagin & Land, bach&Edelbrock,1986)atage15(seebelow).Weconducted
1993),havebeenincreasinglyusedinresearchonexternaliz- attritionanalysesexaminingtheanalyticsampleandthefullsam-
ing trajectories to define groups (for reviews, see Piquero, pleonchildsex,single-parentstatusinearlychildhood,income/
2007;vanDulmen,Goncy,Vest,&Flannery,2009).Onead- needsratioinearlychildhood,andchildethnicity.Participants
vantageofthisapproachwhenappliedtorawdataisthatsex intheanalyticsample(N¼990)weremorelikelytobefemale,
differences in the makeup of groups are not distorted. More x2 (1) ¼ 5.15, p , .05, more likely to live in a dual-parent
generally,suchapproaches,althoughnotaformofhypothesis household,x2(7)¼16.22;p,.01,andhadhigherincomeafter
testing per se, allow investigators to examine whether theo- thebirthofthechild,t(1269)¼23.26,p¼.001.Thefullsample
reticalexpectationsregardinghowgrouptrajectoriesarestruc- andanalyticsampledidnotdifferbyethnicity.
turedarereflectedinthedata.Consistentwithageneralpref-
erence that conclusions be robust to method, and with the
Procedure
goal of making findings from the current analyses compa-
rabletothosepreviouslyreportedinthisliterature,wesorted Primaryassessmentsoccurredwhentheparticipantswere1,
participantsintoexternalizinggroupsusingboththeoretically 6,15,24,36,and54monthsold;whentheywereinkinder-
derived,aprioricutoffscoresfollowingMoffittetal.(1996) gartenandGrades1,2,3,4,5,and6andatage15.Asisex-
298 G.I.Roismanetal.
plainedbelow,antisocialgroupswereidentifiedbasedonre- usedSPGM(Nagin,2005;Nagin&Land,1993)toderivean
portedlevelsofexternalizingbehavioracrosssevenofthese empirically based grouping solution that best described the
assessmentpointsfromkindergartenthroughage15.Weex- datafromtheNICHDSECCYD.
amined predictors of antisocial groups assessed acrossthree Thesetwodistinctstrategiesproducedgroupsthatoverlapped
developmental periods: early childhood (0–3), childhood considerably(seeTable1).Specifically,mostindividualsinthe
(kindergarten through Grade 6), and adolescence (age 15). NAapriori,theoreticallyderivedgroupwereclassifiedaslow
Specifically,wetookthemeanofscoresfromallassessments ormoderateintheSPGMsolution.Similarly,therewasstrong
pertinenttoeachconstructwithineachofthesethreedevelop- classification overlap between the CL and AO groups in the
mentalperiods.Inthisreportwedidnotusetheage54month theoreticallyderivedandSPGMsolutions.Finally,individuals
assessment of the NICHD SECCYD cohort (during which in the theoretically derived EOP group were most likely to be
somerelevantdatawerecollected)sothatwecouldexamine classified as EOP in the SPGM solution, although a number
predictorsinthefirst3yearsoflife(perMoffitt’stheory)and of individualswerealsoclassifiedasCLandAO.Despite the
duringthedevelopmentalperiodspreciselycontemporaneous overlapdescribedabove,wesubsequentlyusedbothgroupso-
withthedefinitionof“childhood”usedfortheassessmentof lutions in our analyses to examine the robustness of findings
antisocial behavior (i.e., beginning in kindergarten; see be- basedonthetwomethodsusedtodefinegroups.
low). Missing data on early childhood, childhood, and ado-
lescenceriskfactorsrangedfrom0%to10%. Theoreticallyderivedgroups.Achenbach(1991c)reportsthat
aTscoreof60canbeusedtodefinetheclinicalcutpointon
Identificationofantisocialgroups.Basedoncriteriausedby
theexternalizingscalesoftheCBCL,TRF,andYSR(average
Moffittetal.(1996),antisocialbehaviorwasassessedwiththe T score from highest informant rating: kindergarten: M ¼
externalizing scale of the CBCL) obtained from the parent, 53.96, SD ¼ 8.68; first grade M ¼ 53.57, SD ¼ 8.76; third
teacher (Teacher Report Form [TRF]), and youth (YSR) ver- grade: M ¼ 53.18, SD ¼ 9.30; fourth grade: M ¼ 52.19,
sions (Achenbach, 1991a, 1991b; 1997; Achenbach & Edel- SD¼9.10;fifthgrade:M¼52.46,SD¼9.33;sixthgrade:
brock, 1986). Note that the CBCL has been used previously M ¼ 51.61, SD ¼ 9.45; 15 years: M ¼ 52.14, SD ¼ 9.43).
to identify antisocial trajectories in line with Moffitt’stheory
Participants were classified as “antisocial early” if they re-
(Aguilaretal.,2000;Roismanetal.,2004)andbroadlyassesses ceived an externalizing T score of (cid:2)60 on at least four of
externalizing problems (including the kind of delinquent and
the six childhood TRFs or CBCLs with both informants
aggressive behaviors that are the subject of other studies of
(mother and teacher) providing elevated ratings at least
Moffitt’sgrouptrajectories;e.g.,Odgersetal.,2008).Wede-
once. We selected this criterion in line with Moffitt et al.
finedantisocialbehaviorinchildhoodforthefollowingassess-
(1996),whosimilarlyrequiredthatchildrenclassifiedas“an-
mentpointswheredatawereconcurrentlyobtainedfromboth
tisocial”showclinicalelevationonthreeoffourassessments
mothersandteachers:kindergartenandGrades1,3,4,5,and
in childhood by either mother or teacher, showing clinical
6. Antisocial behavior in adolescence was assessed using the
elevationatleastoncebybothinformants(althoughnotnec-
parent and YSR versions of the CBCL collected at age 15. essarilyconcurrently).ParticipantswhodidnotmeettheT(cid:2)
The externalizing scale showed adequate reliability across
60criteriononanyofthesixchildhoodTRFsorCBCLswere
time,withthecoefficientaaveraging0.89formaternalreports
classified as “not antisocial early.” Similar to Moffitt et al.
and0.95forteacherreportsacrossthechildhoodassessments.
(1996), participants were classified as “antisocial in adoles-
Antisocial behavior inadolescencewas alsoreliablyassessed cence” if they received an externalizing T score (cid:2)60 on at
(for mother report, a ¼ 0.91 and for YSR, a ¼ 0.86). The
least one of the two adolescent assessments (i.e., YSR or
TRF and CBCL externalizing scores were moderately corre- CBCL)atage15.Participants whodidnotmeettheT(cid:2)60
latedwithinassessmentpointsduringchildhood,withcorrela- criteriononeitherofthetwoage15assessmentswereclassi-
tionsrangingfrom.23to.41(allps,.01;meanr¼.34).The fied as not antisocial in adolescence.1 (Technically, Moffitt
age15CBCLandYSRwerealsosignificantlycorrelated(r¼ et al. [1996] defined clinically elevated as 1 SD above the
.32,p,.01). mean on a nonnormed measure of externalizing problems
To investigate how risk factors in early childhood, child- in the unselected Dunedin cohort; here we use a T score of
hood,andadolescencedifferentiateamongindividualswhofol- 60, which is equivalent to þ1 SD from the population
low different patterns of externalizing behavior (e.g., AO and mean. Moffitt et al. also defined antisocial in adolescence
EO/persistent), it was necessary to classify individuals into
groups. As noted earlier, individuals were grouped in two
1. AlthoughanalyseswerebasedonEOP,AO,andCLantisocialgroups
ways.First,weadaptedastrategypreviouslyemployedbyMof-
highlycomparabletothosepresentedinMoffittetal.(1996),insupple-
fitt and colleagues (1996) to identify theoretically derived mentaryanalysesweexaminedwhetherfindingsweresensitivetovaria-
groupsofindividualswhowere(a)consistentlylowonexternal- tionsinchoicesmaderegardingtheconstructionofthesegroups,includ-
izing,(b)demonstratedelevatedlevelsofexternalizingonlyin ingthenumberoftimeswerequiredparticipantstobeclinicallyelevated
toqualifyas“antisocialinchildhood”aswellasthespecificthresholdwe
childhood, (c) demonstrated elevated levels of externalizing
usedtodefinesignificantelevationonmeasuresofexternalizingprob-
onlyinadolescence,and(d)demonstratedelevatedlevelsofex-
lems.Thepatternofresultsusingthesegroupswascomparabletofindings
ternalizingthroughoutchildhoodandadolescence.Second,we reportedinthispaper.
Adolescence-onsetantisocialbehavior 299
Table1. Overlap between theoretically derivedand empirically derived (semiparametric groupmodeling) groups
EmpiricallyDerivedGroups
TheoreticallyDerived Low Moderate ChildhoodLimited AdolescenceOnset EarlyOnset/Persistent
Neverantisocial 348 91 0 0 0
Childhoodlimited 0 1 26 12 7
Adolescenceonset 29 65 3 44 0
Earlyonset/persistent 0 1 7 14 25
Unclassifieda 37 176 34 53 17
Note:Groups were cross-classifiedin twoways. In Model1,where theunclassified participants fromthetheoreticallyderivedgroupingswere dropped,
x2¼837.95,p,.01.InModel2,wheretheclassifiedandnonclassifiedyouthfromthetheoreticallyderivedgroupwereretained,x2¼953.03,p,.01.
aThetotalnumberreflectsthe317youthwhowerenotclassifiableinthetheoreticallyderivedclassification.
usingtwoself-reportmeasuresofdelinquency,whereashere theprobabilitythateachindividualbelongstoagivengroup
weusedatafromtwoinformantsinstead.) basedonthedataandsimultaneouslyderivedmaximumlike-
Fourgroupswerethenidentifiedasfollows2:NA(44%ofthe lihood parameter estimates associated with membership in
sample;n¼439:224males,215females)—participantswho each of the derived groups (i.e., posterior probabilities of
never showed any clinically elevated externalizing problems; groupmembership).Basedontheseprobabilities,individuals
CL(5%ofthesample;n¼46:22males,24females)—partic- wereassignedtotheirmostlikelygroup.
ipantsclassifiedasantisocialearlyandnotantisocialinadoles- Usingrawdata(ratherthanTscores)fromthesameassess-
cence; AO (14% of the sample; n ¼ 141: 84 males, 57 fe- mentsandinformantsdescribedabove(thehighestinformant
males)—participants who did not meet criteria for antisocial score was used; kindergarten: M ¼ 10.42, SD ¼ 8.12; first
earlybutwereantisocialinadolescence;andEOP(5%ofthe grade: M ¼ 9.92, SD ¼ 8.21; third grade: M ¼ 9.63, SD ¼
sample;n¼47:28males,19females)—participantsclassified 8.76; fourth grade: M ¼ 8.89, SD ¼ 8.43; fifth grade: M ¼
asantisocialearlyandantisocialinadolescence.Asisoftenthe 9.03,SD¼8.82;sixthgrade:M¼8.39,SD¼8.61;15years:
caseinworkinthisareausingclinicalcriteriaforthecreationof M¼11.39,SD¼7.23),wetestedforuptosevensolutions.
groups(e.g.,Aguilaretal.,2000;Moffittetal.,2002),asubstan- Dataareassumedtobemissingatrandom;thus,anyavailable
tialnumberofparticipantswereexcluded(35%;n¼351)be- data is used to estimate group trajectories and the posterior
cause their status was ambiguous (e.g., in childhood they did probabilityofgroupmembership.Modelselectionwasbased
notmeetcriteriaforeithertheantisocialorthenotantisocialclas- onthreecriteria:(a)thelowestBayesianinformationcriterion
sification).Althoughthisresultedinareducedsamplesize,more (BIC)relativetoothergroupsolutions(Jones,Nagin,&Roe-
clearly defined categories were produced. Excluding those der, 2001), (b) a conceptually clear model, and (c) a model
whosestatuswasambiguous,theresultingsample(n¼673)in- with a sufficient number of individuals in each group so as
cluded358malesand315femalesandwas84%White. to be able to examine group differences. The number of
classeswasdecidedon,andthentheformofthepolynomial
Empirically derived groups. SPGM (Nagin, 2005; Nagin & (e.g.,linear,quadratic)usedtocapturetheshapeofeachtra-
Land,1993)isanexploratory,data-drivenanalytictechnique jectorywasdetermined,withthehighestsignificantpolyno-
thatidentifiesgroupsofindividualsthroughaclusteringalgo- mialtrendincludedinanalyses.
rithm, rather than bya priori conceptualizations. In the pre- AlthoughtheBICvaluesindicatedthataseven-groupso-
sentstudy,group-basedtrajectorymodelingwasusedtoiden- lutionbestfitthedata(seeTable2),afive-groupsolutionwas
tifysubgroupsofindividualswhofollowedsimilarpatternsof selected because the six- and seven-group solutions did not
externalizingbehavioracrossage.Abenefitofthistechnique addsubstantiallytotheunderstandingofgrouppatterns.Spe-
overtheoreticallyderivedgroupingsisthatgroup-basedmod- cifically,theadditionalsubgroupsinthesix-andseven-group
elingensuresthatgroupsaresignificantlydifferentfromone solutionswerenotdistinctinshapeorlevelandconsistedof
anotheronthecharacteristicofinterest(here,patternsofanti- groups with less than 3% of the sample, which would not
social behavior). With group-based modeling, we estimated haveyieldedenoughindividualstomakegroupcomparisons.
Consequently,afive-groupsolutionwasselectedforitslow
BIC value, conceptually clear model, and adequatepercent-
2. DepartingfromMoffittetal.(1996),weelectedtodefineNAyouthas ageofthesampleineachtrajectorygroup.
participants who never showed clinicallyelevated antisocial problems, In the five-group solution (see Figure 1), the majority of
asratedbyallinformantsacrossallassessmentshighlightedinthisreport. individualsfollowedaconsistentlylowpatternofexternaliz-
ThisdefinitionofNAismoreconsistentwithrecentworkinthisarea,
ingbehavior(low;41.8%ofthesample;n¼414:173males,
whichhasmovedawayfromMoffittetal.’s(1996)focusonindividuals
241females).Individualsinthenextlowesttrajectory,amod-
whoneveror “rarely” showanyantisocialbehavior(see,e.g., Aguilar
etal.,2000;Odgersetal.,2008). erately low trajectory, engaged in stable, but relatively low
300 G.I.Roismanetal.
Table 2.Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and years of life, (b) between kindergarten and Grade 6, and (c)
2log (B ) values of the models underconsideration inadolescence(i.e.,attheage15follow-up).
e 10
No.ofGroups BIC NullModel 2log (B ) Maternal sensitivity. Maternal sensitivity was assessed in
e 10
early childhood, childhood, and adolescence. At each age,
1 223337.75 — —
tapesofmother–childinteractionwerecodedatanondatacol-
2 222280.84 1 1056.91
lection site by coders who were blind to any information
3 221897.89 2 382.95
4 221809.48 3 88.41 about study families. An early childhood composite was
5 221767.67 4 41.81 basedonmother–childinteractionsthatwerevideotapeddur-
6 221735.45 5 32.22 ing 15-min semistructured tasks at 6, 15, and 24, and 36
7 221715.45 6 20.00
months.Anumberofscaleswereusedtoratethemothers’be-
haviorfromthesevideotapes.At6months,mothersandchil-
drenwereinstructedtoplaytogether,firstwithtoysavailable
levelsofexternalizingbehaviorovertime(moderate;33.7% inthehomeandthen with astandardsetoftoys.At15,24,
ofthesample;n¼334:176males, 158females). Thethird and 36 months, mothers were asked to show their children
trajectory showed high levels of externalizing behavior in age-appropriatetoysinthreecontainersinasetorder.Asin
childhood,butdeclinedastheytransitionedintoadolescence. priorstudiesofthissample(e.g.,NICHDECCRN,2001),ob-
WecallthisgrouptheCLtrajectorygroup(7.1%ofthesam- servationsofmaternalsensitivityfromthefirst3yearsoflife
ple; n ¼ 70: 45 males, 25 females). The fourth trajectory (6,15,24,and36months)werestandardizedandaveragedto
group, the AO group (12.4% of the sample; n ¼ 123: 68 create a composite of early sensitivity. At 6, 15, and 24
males,55females),evincedrelativelylowlevelsofexternal- months, the a priori maternal sensitivity composites were
izingbehaviorovertime,showingelevatedlevelsofexternal- constructedbysummingratingsforsensitivitytonondistress,
izing only in adolescence. The final trajectory group, EOP positive regard, and intrusiveness (reversed). At 36 months
(4.9%; n ¼ 49: 31 males, 18 females), showed high levels mother’ssupportivepresence,respectforautonomy,andhos-
of externalizing behavior throughout childhood and adoles- tility (reversed) scales were composited (composites as ¼
cence. Examination of the posterior probabilities indicated 0.75,0.70,0.79,and0.78forthe6-,15-,24-,and36-month
thatindividualswerewellmatched(seeNagin,2005)totheir composites,respectively,andintercoderreliabilitiesonscales
group(0.90inthelowtrajectory,0.81inthemoderatetrajectory, ..80).Within-agecompositesshowedstabilityovertime(rs
0.83intheCLtrajectory,0.79intheAOtrajectory,0.96inthe ¼.30–.48;compositemeasurestandardizeda¼0.73).
EOPtrajectory). As with the earlysensitivity composite, achildhood ma-
ternalsensitivitycompositewascreatedfromvideotapedob-
servations of participants and their primary caregivers in
Predictorsofantisocialtrajectories
Grades1,3,and5.Eachofthesetasksinvolvedtargetpartic-
Income/needs ratio. Home visits were conducted when the ipants engaged tasks just beyond their capacity to success-
studychildrenwere1monthold.Duringthisvisit,demographic fullycompletewhileprimarycaregiversprovidedaid.Forex-
information,includingchildethnicityandfamilyincome,was ample,theGrade1assessmentinvolvedthechildcompleting
collected. Data on familyincomewere updated during phone a set of three activities, including reproducing a simple pic-
callsandface-to-facecontactswithmothersatregularintervals ture.Taskswereupdatedtobedevelopmentallyappropriate:
through36months.Anincome/needsratiowascalculatedfrom duringGrades3and5,forexample, primarycaregiversand
USCensusBureautablesastheratiooffamilyincometothe target participants completed both activities and engaged in
poverty threshold for each household size in early childhood discussiontasks(e.g.,anerrandplanningtaskinGrade3,dis-
(Month1toMonth36),childhood(kindergartenthroughGrade cussing and attempting to resolve areas of disagreement in
6),andadolescence(age15 follow-up).Theratios werestan- Grade 5). Sensitivity was operationalized in Grades 1, 3,
dardizedandaveragedtocreateacumulativeincome/needsratio and 5 using scales measuring supportive presence, respect
scoreateachtimepoint.Themeasureshowedgoodreliabilityin forautonomy,andhostility(reversed), whichwerecompos-
earlychildhood(a¼0.94)andchildhood(a¼0.97). ited(compositesas¼0.82,0.80,and0.85,respectively;in-
terrater reliabilities [intraclass correlations] ¼ .91, .84, and
Single parenting. During home visits and phone updates, .85,respectively).Thethreeassessmentsofchildhoodsensi-
marital status was assessed at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 24, and 36 tivitywerestandardizedandcomposited(a¼0.71).
months,aswellasateachofthelatertimepoints(kindergar- Atage15,maternalsensitivitywasassessedexclusivelyin
ten,Grade1,Grade3,Grade4,Grade5,Grade6,andage15). thecontextofan8-minhomediscussionofoneortwoareas
Weadoptedaconservativedefinitionforsingleparenting,in of disagreement between the adolescent and mother (e.g.,
thatifmotherseverreportedbeingunmarriedduringadevel- chores, homework, money), selected by the adolescent. Se-
opmental period, they were classified as single parents. Our ven-point rating scales of the interaction were used (Owen
goalwastoidentifychildrenwhohadexperiencednotliving etal.,2006),basedonadaptationsofthemoremicroanalytic
with two married caregivers for any time: (a) in the first 3 coding systems of Allen and colleagues (Allen et al., 2003;
Adolescence-onsetantisocialbehavior 301
Figure1.Semiparametricgroup-basedmodelsofexternalizing.
Allen, Hauser, Bell, McElhaney, & Tate, 1996) and coding ately correlated (r ¼ .32, N ¼ 1,279, p , .0001), and were
systems used at earlier ages in the NICHD SECCYD (e.g., standardizedandaveraged.Temperamentwasassessedonly
Owen,Klausli,&Murrey,2000).Theage15maternalsensi- in early childhood using this measure; as such, comparable
tivitycompositecomprisedthesumoftheratingsofmother’s assessmentsforchildhoodandadolescencearenotreported.
validation (enthusiastic, positive reactions to and agreement
with the teen’s expressed points of view), engagement (ex-
Cognitivefunctioning.Duringlaboratoryvisitsat15,24,and
pressedinterestinthelisteningtotheteen’sthoughtsandfeel-
36 months, study children were administered measures of
ings), inhibiting relatedness (cutting off and devaluing the
cognitive functioning by examiners who had been trained
teen’spointofview,reversescored),hostility/devaluing(ex-
and certified in test administration prior to data collection.
pressionsofanger,discountingorrejectionoftheteenorthe
At15and24months,theBayleyScalesofMentalDevelop-
teen’s ideas, reverse scored), respect forautonomy (encour-
ment (Bayley, 1991) were administered. At 36 months, the
agement of and respect for the teen’s own ideas and points
BrackenTestofBasicConceptswasadministered(Bracken,
ofview),andvaluing/warmth(expressionsofpositiveregard,
1984). Standard scores on these three measures were aver-
warmth, and affection). The a of the age 15 measure was
aged to form a composite measure of early cognitive func-
moderatelyhighat0.81(interraterreliability[intraclasscorre-
tioning.Thereliabilityforthismeasurewasa¼0.70.
lation]¼.86).
In childhood and adolescence, various subscales of the
Woodcock–Johnson were administered to assess cognitive
Healthstatus.Duringhomevisitsandregulartelephonecalls abilityinanumberofdevelopmentallyappropriatedomains.
at3-monthintervals(1,3,6,9,12,15,18,21,24,27,30,33, Within each age period (childhood and adolescence) mea-
and 36 months), mothers were asked for their judgment of sureswerecomposited. AtGrade1,subscales oftheWood-
their child’s overall health from 1¼ poor to 4 ¼ excellent. cock–Johnson consisted of memory for names, memory for
Scoresfromthe1-through36-monthassessmentswerestan- sentences,incompletewords,picture vocabulary,letter–word
dardized and averaged. The reliability of this measure was identification,appliedproblems,andwordattack.Inthethird
adequate(a¼0.74).Healthstatuswasalsoassessedinkin- grade, nine subscales of the Woodcock–Johnson were used:
dergarten,andatGrades1,2,3,4,5,and6.Itemswerestan- memoryfornames,memoryforsentences,picturevocabulary
dardizedandaveraged;themeasureshowedgoodreliability score, verbal analogies, letter–word identification, passage
(a¼0.83).Finally,inadolescence,thehealthitemwasstan- comprehension, calculation, applied problems, and word at-
dardizedtobeconsistentwithothermeasuresofhealth. tack. In the fifth grade, the picture vocabulary, letter–word
identification, passage comprehension, calculation, applied
Early temperament. At the 1- and 6-month visits, mothers problems,broadreading,andbroadmathsubscaleswerecom-
completed the Carey and McDevitt (1978) Infant Tempera- pleted.Finally,atage15,thepicturevocabulary,verbalanalo-
mentQuestionnaire,whichcontained38items ratedona6- gies, passage comprehension, and applied problems scales
point scale. The composite total score, where higher scores were administered. Within each time point, the standardized
reflectamoreirritableanddifficultchild,hadmodestreliabil- scores from the subscales were averaged. Subsequently, kin-
ity at 1 month (a ¼ 0.67) but showed better reliability at 6 dergarten through sixth-grade assessments were standardized
months(a¼0.81).Scoresfrom1and6monthsweremoder- and combined foran index of childhood cognitive ability (a
302 G.I.Roismanetal.
¼0.95).Tobeconsistentwiththeothermeasuresofcognitive 003627537631097
6 220013120161201
ability,theage15assessmentofcognitiveability(a¼0.88) 1 2.2.2..2..2.2.2.2..2.2.2.2.
wasalsostandardized.
69704547946188
5 43115343182220
1 ...2..2.....2....
Results
Analysisplan 4 11113412051115154512121211
1 ...2..2.....2...
Prior to analyzing group differences, we examined whether
the various indicators of contextual adversity and intraindi-
202814790708
vidualriskincludedinthisstudyrepresentedrelativelyinde- 13 .3.6.12.0.22.2.2.7.2.22.2.1
pendent indicators of functioning within early childhood,
childhood, andadolescence. AsshowninTable 3,although
29197832714
dependentmeasureswerecorrelatedinatheoreticallypredict- 12 .3.1.12.0.12.1.4.2.1.22.1
ablemanner(i.e.,allcorrelationswereintheexpecteddirec-
tion),thedependentmeasureswerenotempiricallyredundant
3197570165 e.
within developmental periods (that said, across-time rank- 11 2.32.32.0.02.2.52.32.32.12.2 enc
orderstabilityofconstructswasclearlyapparent).Toexam- sc
e
inepotentialdifferencesamongthegroupsinthetheoretically dol
463202283 a
derived and empirically derived (SPGM) solutions, we next 0 432163432 D,
1 ...2..2.... A
usedanalysesofvariancetotestifgroupsweredifferentiated
d;
by levels of maternal sensitivity, income/needs ratio, child oo
h
hheoamlteh.,Wteimthptehreamexecnet,pticoongnoiftitveempaebrialimtye,nta,nwdhiscinhgwlea-spaornelnyt 9 .23.22.562.22.172.14.19.23 child
H,
assessedviamaternalreportinearlychildhood,weexamined C
eliafceh),ocfhtihldehseoopdre(dkiicntodresrginareteanrlythcrhoiuldghhosoixdt(hthgerafdires)t,3aynedaarsdoo-f 8 .40.81.162.05.312.34.36 dhood;
lescence (age 15). Means and standard deviations for each chil
y
osoultuctoiomnes,,saerpearreapteolrytefdorinthTeatbhleeor4etaincadllTyadbeleriv5e,dreasnpdecStiPvGelMy. 7 .60.36.122.09.402.42 C,earl
E
(Throughouttheresultsthatfollow,contrastsforthetheoreti-
0).
coaplmlyeanntadlepmerpiiordic.a)llydefinedgroupsarejuxtaposedbydevel- 6 2.432.412.11.102.30 ¼99
n
Tominimizesignificantresultsduemerelytochance,for p(
u
bivariateanalyses,inadditiontouncorrectedpvalues,were- es 7529 w-
porttheBenjamini–Hochberg(BH;Benjamini&Hochberg, ctori 5 .4.3.12.0 follo
1995)correctionformultipletesting(likewise,belowwein- e 5
taWenriaplllryieastmesdsi,ifffJetohrneeensBc,eHasncdaosrTresutckateteiydsti(pc1a9,l9ly9.0)s,5iB)g.nHAifsiwcraaensctoumsfoemdretbnoidvaeaddrjiuabtsyet ocialtraj 4 2.172.082.26 attheage1
pcovmapluaerissotonsproefseinrvteereastn.oTmheincaolmaplaerviseolnosfo0f.0s5peocnialyl ifnotrertehset ofantis 3 .18.16 aliddata
wlcoaewurseegbrtoehutewpseeaeswnweereaecllthhaeosfobtnehlteyweeaexpnterirtohnreailiEhzOyinpPgotaghnreodsuiAzpeOsdagdnridoffutehpreesn.NcBeAes-/, dictors 2 .45 whohadv
e
they were the only ones tested. (Planned comparisons do pr 1 uth
baih(¼nassnllo2omledt)0nIsc.an.rto8aeflChlmfon)qeoo.reauiplhrfllidafyoeraeeersnwsictes’saot-ssooium,¼lncs(pwis1n.a)a0e9itpbne.F9p2ruadio2r,nlsod)yBmavtuscleHielcerdsysedi-tet,csdiweuoieronesmrisfairttgeaiegmewcdnsrftditaoeeffeietirdudtececipsaoptiafnnod¼vdetfitaoafFeo0flcpfue.htfop5reeeerrcs,dconoxativcvnins2neiaiddsgzvri;ieirnaanaonlg(ttuuleeoeaperitnr(tpsgmhesc;retteoeahasrtmtteeeiiednfeslprfestgneiatscoacarsds--rtl, ble3.Correlationsamong Variable MaternalsensitivityECIncome/needsECChildhealthECDifficulttemper.ECCognitivefunctionECSingleparentECMaternalsensitivityCHIncome/needsCHChildhealthCHCognitivefunctionCHSingleparentCHMaternalsensitivityADIncome/needsADChildhealthADCognitivefunctionADSingleparentAD e:Correlationsarebasedonallyo,ps.05.
sensitivity, income/needs ratio, health, temperament [early Ta 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10.11.12.13.14.15.16. NotAll
Adolescence-onsetantisocialbehavior 303
Table4. Means andstandard deviations by theoretically derivedgroup
Never Childhood Adolescence EarlyOnset/
Antisocial Limited Onset Persistent
M SD M SD M SD M SD
Earlychildhood
Maternalsensitivity 0.25 0.61 20.33 0.88 20.06 0.71 20.37 0.82
Income/needs 0.20 0.88 20.24 1.02 20.18 0.67 20.58 0.60
Health 0.09 0.53 20.30 0.55 0.05 0.46 20.30 0.63
Temperament 20.11 0.79 0.10 0.76 0.18 0.84 0.13 0.78
Cognitiveability 0.23 0.78 20.22 0.80 0.03 0.69 20.37 0.78
Single-parenthome 0.16 0.48 0.38 0.51
Childhood
Maternalsensitivity 0.27 0.66 20.49 0.70 20.17 0.83 20.59 0.80
Income/needs 0.25 1.07 20.35 0.74 20.20 0.64 20.56 0.54
Health 0.06 0.62 20.21 0.57 20.07 0.65 20.29 0.72
Cognitiveability 0.20 0.64 20.29 0.68 20.07 0.73 20.41 0.76
Single-parenthome 0.22 0.59 0.47 0.60
Adolescence
Maternalsensitivity 0.23 0.93 20.22 0.84 20.24 1.01 20.66 1.46
Income/needs 0.19 1.18 20.22 0.74 20.18 0.66 20.51 0.44
Health 0.11 0.93 20.18 0.95 20.16 1.03 20.45 1.21
Cognitiveability 0.26 0.80 20.38 0.77 20.13 0.80 20.58 0.90
Single-parenthome 0.16 0.37 0.35 0.43
Note:Valuesforsingle-parenthomesreflectthepercentageofindividualsinasinglefamilyhomeoverthecourseofthedevelopmentalperiod.
childhood only], cognitive ability, and single-parent home) externalizing group(NA inthe theoretically derivedmodels
interactedwithsextopredictmembershipinthetheoretically and the low group in the SPGM groups) as the reference
derivedandSPGMgroups.Inthefirstsetofmodels,ween- group.Inthesecondsetofmodels,weconductedabinarylo-
tered a covariate, sex, and the interaction between the two gistic regression to examine the interaction between the co-
variablesinamultinomiallogisticregressionusingthelowest variate and sex predicting membership in the EOP group
Table5. Means andstandard deviations byempirically derived (semiparametric groupmodeling) group
Low Moderate Childhood Adolescence EarlyOnset/
Antisocial Antisocial Limited Onset Persistent
M SD M SD M SD M SD M SD
Earlychildhood
Maternalsensitivity 0.27 0.60 0.01 0.73 20.36 0.84 20.16 0.77 20.73 0.86
Income/needs 0.25 0.91 20.06 0.80 20.05 1.15 20.29 0.63 20.67 0.46
Health 0.12 0.51 20.06 0.50 20.16 0.60 20.07 0.51 20.31 0.63
Temperament 20.14 0.81 0.09 0.82 20.04 0.82 0.08 0.76 0.33 0.86
Cognitiveability 0.25 0.76 20.05 0.80 20.46 0.76 20.02 0.78 20.54 0.66
Single-parenthome 0.15 0.30 0.47 0.37 0.61
Childhood
Maternalsensitivity 0.31 0.65 20.06 0.81 20.46 0.86 20.28 0.80 20.69 0.77
Income/needs 0.31 1.09 20.07 0.81 20.21 0.81 20.37 0.56 20.71 0.35
Health 0.11 0.59 20.05 0.63 20.12 0.69 20.13 0.69 20.31 0.75
Cognitiveability 0.26 0.80 20.07 0.81 20.37 0.94 20.20 0.86 20.76 0.77
Single-parenthome 0.23 0.35 0.49 0.44 0.66
Adolescence
Maternalsensitivity 0.25 0.96 20.08 0.95 20.22 0.90 20.22 0.96 20.75 1.24
Income/needs 0.19 1.07 20.01 1.04 20.21 0.71 20.27 0.78 20.55 0.30
Health 0.16 0.90 20.04 1.01 0.04 0.91 20.27 1.07 20.39 1.16
Cognitiveability 0.26 0.80 20.07 0.81 20.37 0.94 20.20 0.86 20.76 0.77
Single-parenthome 0.18 0.22 0.37 0.36 0.43
Note:Valuesforsingle-parenthomereflectthepercentageofindividualsinasinglefamilyhomeoverthecourseofthedevelopmentalperiod.
304 G.I.Roismanetal.
comparedtotheAOtrajectory.Inthesemodels,theAOgroup two of the five measures examined (maternal sensitivity
wasusedasthereferencegroup.Becauserelativelyfewsuch and cognitive functioning; small effects). Multinomial re-
sexinteractionsemerged,wenoteintableswheneffectswere gressions revealed that sex moderated only 1 of 15 relevant
significantlylargerformales(M)orfemales(F)anddescribe contrasts.
belowtheoverallpatternofresults. Thepatternofresultswassimilarwhenwecomparedthe
Finally,wetestedifsomeofthecovariateswerebetterpre- SPGMgroupsonchildhoodcovariates(seeTable7).Ofthe
dictors of group membership than others bysimultaneously 20relevantcontrastscomparingtheantisocialgroupstolow
entering all predictors into a multinomial logistic regression externalizers,19ofthesewerestatisticallysignificant (small
predicting group membership, again using the lowest exter- tomediumeffects).EOPswereonlysignificantlydistinguish-
nalizing trajectory as the reference group. Note that these ablefromAOsononeofsixmeasuresexamined(EOPswere
analyses were conducted within each developmental epoch morelikelythanAOstohaveexperiencedasingleparentin
(earlychildhood,childhood,andadolescence)butnotacross childhood); however, uncorrected p values suggest that,
developmental periods because of the moderate to strong adoptingamoreliberalcriterion, EOPsdidcarry morecon-
rank-orderstabilityofconstructsacrosstime. textual and intradindividual risk in childhood than AOs).
Twoof25effectswerelargerforfemalesthanmalesinthis
setofanalyses.
Bivariateanalyses
Earlychildhood.Inearlychildhood,theoreticallydefinedan- Adolescence.Wealsoexamineddifferencesamongtheoreti-
tisocialgroups(CL,AO,andEOP)wereconsistentlydistin- cally derived groups on covariates during adolescence (see
guishedfromNAsonmeasuresofbothcontextualadversity Table 6). Once again, antisocial groups experienced more
and intraindividual risk (see Table 6). Of 18 relevant con- risk,inthattheyhadsignificantlyhigherlevelsofcontextual
trasts,15werestatisticallysignificant,withtheseeffectsrang- adversityand intraindividual disadvantage than did NAs on
ingfromsmalltomediuminmagnitude.Similarly,EOPscar- 14of15relevantcontrasts(smalltomediumeffects).EOPs
riedhigherlevelsofcontextualandintraindividualriskthan had lower levels of cognitive functioning than did AOs (a
AOs on four of the six risk factors examined in the first 3 small effect), but none of the other 4 relevant contrasts
years of life, with effects again ranging from small to me- weresignificant(notethatuncorrectedpvaluessuggestaddi-
dium.Only3of24contrastsrevealedevidencethatsexsig- tionalevidencethatEOPswerefurther distinguishable from
nificantlymoderatedtheoverallpatternofresults(twoeffects AOs).Forthissetof20contrasts,multinomialregressionsre-
werelargerformales,onewaslargerforfemales). vealedthat2weremoderatedbysex(oneeffectwaslargerfor
Planned contrasts were also used to examine differences males,onewaslargerforfemales).
on covariates in early childhood among the SPGM-derived WealsocomparedSPGMgroupsoncovariatesinadoles-
groups (see Table 7) and results largely mirrored those ob- cence(see Table 7). Antisocial groupsexperiencedandcar-
servedintheanalysesusingthetheoreticallyderivedgroups. riedconsistentlyhigherlevelsofriskthandidlowexternaliz-
Specifically,theantisocialgroups(moderate,CL,AO,EOP) ers, with 18 of 20 relevant contrasts revealing significant,
were distinguished from low externalizers on 22 of 24 rele- albeitsmalltomediumdifferences.Onlyoneoffiverelevant
vant contrasts, suggesting each of the antisocial groups ex- contrastsrevealedevidencethatEOPshadsignificantlymore
perienced more contextual adversity and evinced higher contextual adversity or intraindividiual risk in adolescence
levelsofintraindividual riskthan didlowexternalizers (sig- (onmaternalsensitivity,asmalleffect),althoughuncorrected
nificanteffectsweresmalltomediuminmagnitude).Empiri- pvaluesdidsuggestmorecontextualadversityandintraindi-
cally defined EOPs also carried somewhat more risk than vidualdisadvantagesinthelivesofEOPscomparedtoAOs.
AOs in that they could be significantly distinguished (BH None of associations examined in this set of analyses were
corrected) on three of the six indicators examined (EOPs moderatedbysex.
had lower income/needs ratio, more difficult temperaments,
and were more likely to experience a single parent in early
Uniquepredictivesignificanceofcovariates
childhoodthanAOs).Follow-upmultinomialregressionsre-
vealedthat4of30effectswerelargerforfemalesthanmales. Earlychildhood.Toexaminehowcovariatesmightdifferen-
tiallypredictmembershipinthetheoreticallyderivedgroups,
Childhood.Next,weexaminedhowcovariatesinchildhood wesimultaneouslyestimatedtheeffectsofeachcovariateina
(kindergarten to Grade 6) differed among theoretically de- multinomial logistic regression, using the NA group as the
rived groups, comparing each group to the NA group and referencegroup(seeTable8).Inearlychildhood,lowerma-
thencomparingEOPtoAOindividuals(seeTable6).Once ternal sensitivity, the experience of living in a single parent
again, antisocial groups could be distinguished from NAs family,andpoorhealthwereuniquelyassociatedwithmem-
on measures of risk (14 out of the 15 relevant contrasts bershipintheCLgroupcomparedtotheNAgroup.Member-
werestatisticallysignificant andthe magnitude of these sig- shipintheAOgroupwasuniquelyassociatedwithlowerin-
nificant effects was small to medium). In childhood, EOPs come/needsratio,livinginasingle-parenthomeduringearly
had significantly higher levels of risk (BH corrected) on childhood,andamoredifficulttemperament.Lowerincome/