Iran's Military Forces and Warfighting Capabilities: The Threat in the Northern Gulf

289 Pages·2007·1.84 MB·English

by  Anthony H. Cordesman

Iran’s Military Forces and
Warfighting Capabilities
PraegerSecurityInternationalAdvisoryBoard
BoardCochairs
LochK.Johnson,RegentsProfessor ofPublicandInternationalAffairs,Schoolof
PublicandInternationalAffairs,UniversityofGeorgia(U.S.A.)
PaulWilkinson,ProfessorofInternationalRelationsandChairmanoftheAdvisory
Board,CentrefortheStudyofTerrorismandPoliticalViolence,UniversityofSt.
Andrews(U.K.)
Members
Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A.Burke Chair inStrategy, CenterforStrategic
andInternationalStudies(U.S.A.)
The´re`se Delpech, Director of Strategic Affairs, Atomic Energy Commission, and
SeniorResearchFellow,CERI(FondationNationaledesSciencesPolitiques),Paris
(France)
SirMichaelHoward,formerChicheleProfessoroftheHistoryofWarandRegisPro-
fessorofModernHistory,OxfordUniversity,andRobertA.LovettProfessorofMili-
taryandNavalHistory,YaleUniversity(U.K.)
LieutenantGeneralClaudiaJ.Kennedy,USA(Ret.),formerDeputyChiefofStaff
forIntelligence,DepartmentoftheArmy(U.S.A.)
Paul M. Kennedy, J. Richardson Dilworth Professor of History and Director,
InternationalSecurityStudies,YaleUniversity(U.S.A.)
RobertJ.O’Neill,formerChicheleProfessoroftheHistoryofWar,AllSoulsCol-
lege,OxfordUniversity(Australia)
Shibley Telhami, AnwarSadat Chairfor Peaceand Development,Department of
GovernmentandPolitics,UniversityofMaryland(U.S.A.)
FareedZakaria,Editor,NewsweekInternational(U.S.A.)
Iran’s Military Forces and
Warfighting Capabilities
The Threat in the Northern Gulf
Anthony H. Cordesman
and Martin Kleiber
PublishedincooperationwiththeCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,
Washington,D.C.
PRAEGERSECURITYINTERNATIONAL
Westport,Connecticut (cid:127) London
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Cordesman,AnthonyH.
Iran’smilitaryforcesandwarfightingcapabilities:thethreatintheNorthernGulf/
AnthonyH.CordesmanandMartinKleiber.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978–0–313–34612–5(alk.paper)
1. Iran—Militarypolicy.2. Nationalsecurity—Iran.3. Iran—ArmedForces. I.Kleiber,Martin.II.
Title.
UA853.I7C6342007a
355´.033255—dc22 2007029599
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationDataisavailable.
Copyright©2007byCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies
Allrightsreserved.Noportionofthisbookmaybe
reproduced,byanyprocessortechnique,withoutthe
expresswrittenconsentofthepublisher.
LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNumber:2007029599
ISBN-13:978–0–313–34612–5
Firstpublishedin2007
PraegerSecurityInternational,88PostRoadWest,Westport,CT06881
AnimprintofGreenwoodPublishingGroup,Inc.
www.praeger.com
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
Thepaperusedinthisbookcomplieswiththe
PermanentPaperStandardissuedbytheNational
InformationStandardsOrganization(Z39.48–1984).
10987654321
Contents
FIGURES ix
CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTION 1
INTENTIONSVERSUSCAPABILITIESINADIVIDEDSTATE 1
TheUncertainVoicesofIran’sLeaders 2
Iran’sMilitaryExercises 15
Iran’s‘‘TravelingCircus(es)’’ofSecurityVoices 20
EXTERNALSOURCESOFINSTABILITY 21
StrategicUncertaintyandtheGulf 23
TheProblemoftheUnitedStatesandIsrael 24
FOCUSINGONCAPABILITIESRATHERTHANONINTENTIONS 25
CHAPTER2:IRAN’SCHANGINGROLEINREGIONALSECURITY 27
CHAPTER3:MILITARYSPENDING,ARMSIMPORTS,AND 30
MILITARYMANNING
IRANIANMILITARYSPENDINGANDARMSIMPORTS 30
IRANIANMILITARYMANPOWER 35
CHAPTER4:THEIRANIANARMY 40
IRANIANTANKSTRENGTH 41
Iran’sMostModernTanks 45
HoldingsofOlderTanks 46
OTHERIRANIANARMOR 47
IRANIANANTI-ARMORWEAPONS 53
IRANIANARTILLERYSTRENGTH 54
vi CONTENTS
HoldingsofTubeArtillery 56
MultipleRocketLaunchers 59
ModernTargetingandFire-ControlSystemsandArtilleryTactics 61
IRANIANARMYAIR-DEFENSESYSTEMS 62
IRANIANARMYAVIATION 64
IRANIANARMYUNMANNEDAERIALVEHICLES 64
IRANIANARMY’SCOMMAND,CONTROL,COMMUNICATIONS,COMPUTERS, 65
ANDINTELLIGENCE
FORCETRENDSANDSUMMARYCAPABILITIES 66
CHAPTER5:THEISLAMICREVOLUTIONARYGUARDSCORPS 73
(PASDARAN)
IRGCLANDFORCES 74
THEIRGCAIRFORCE 77
THEIRGCNAVALFORCES 77
PROXYANDCOVERTCBRNOPERATIONS 77
THEALQUDS(QODS)FORCE 78
THEBASIJ 81
ROLEINIRAN’SINDUSTRIES 82
OTHERPARAMILITARYFORCES 83
CHAPTER6:THEIRANIANAIRFORCE 84
IRANIANAIRSTRENGTH 85
ForceQuantity 87
ForceQuality 91
MissionCapability 92
AirliftandSupportCapability 92
IRGCAirUnits 92
AirWeaponry 93
IRANIANAIRCRAFTDEVELOPMENT 93
IRANIANAIRFORCEREADINESSANDEFFECTIVENESS 94
IRANIANLAND-BASEDAIRDEFENSE 97
FORCETRENDSANDSUMMARYCAPABILITIES 103
CHAPTER7:THEIRANIANNAVY 108
MAJORSURFACESHIPS 112
IRAN’SSUBMARINEFORCES 113
ANTI-SHIPMISSILESANDSMALLERMISSILECRAFT 116
OTHERPATROLBOATSANDSURFACECRAFT 119
IRANIANMINEWARFARECAPABILITIES 119
IRANIANAMPHIBIOUSASSETS 120
IRANIANNAVALAIR 121
THEROLEOFTHENAVALBRANCHOFTHEIRGC 123
NAVALFORCEDEPLOYMENTS 125
FORCETRENDSANDSUMMARYCAPABILITIES 125
CONTENTS vii
CHAPTER8:PARAMILITARY,INTERNALSECURITY,AND 129
INTELLIGENCEFORCES
THEMINISTRYOFINTELLIGENCEANDSECURITY 131
THEIRGCINTELLIGENCEBRANCH 131
THEBASIJRESISTANCEFORCE 132
THEUNCERTAINROLEOFTHEMINISTRYOFINTERIOR 132
CHAPTER9:IRAN’SLONG-RANGEMISSILEARSENAL 134
SHAHAB-1/SCUD-B 136
SHAHAB-2/SCUD-C 139
SHAHAB-3 141
MissileDevelopment 142
UncertainPerformance 144
MobilityandDeployment 147
SHAHAB-3A/3M/3D/IRIS 148
SHAHAB-4 149
SHAHAB-5ANDSHAHAB-6 150
SATELLITELAUNCHVEHICLE 151
CSS-8ORTONDAR69 152
BM-25/SS-N-6 152
GHADR101ANDGHADR110 153
RADUGAKH-55GRANAT/KH-55/AS-15KENT 154
M-9ANDM-11MISSILES 155
FURTHERDEVELOPMENTS 156
CHAPTER10:IRAN’SWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTION 157
PROGRAM:CHEMICALANDBIOLOGICALWEAPONS
CHEMICALWEAPONS 157
OfficialEstimatesofIranianCapability 158
ArmsControlEstimatesofIranianCapability 159
NGOEstimatesofIranianCapability 160
BIOLOGICALWEAPONS 161
PossibleEarlyIndicatorsThatIranMightHaveaBWProgram 162
TheUncertainNatureofIran’sBWProgramSincetheMid-1990s 163
ContinuingAlarmsandExcursions 163
ThePossibleRoleofOutsideSuppliers 163
POSSIBLECBWWARFIGHTINGCAPABILITY 164
CHAPTER11:POSSIBLENUCLEARWEAPONSPROGRAMS 169
PROBLEMSINANALYZINGIRAN’SWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTION(WMD) 173
PROGRAM:ACASESTUDY
UncertaintyandCredibilityofSources 175
KeyUncertaintiesinIran’sNuclearDevelopments 177
PLUTONIUMPRODUCTION 177
UraniumEnrichment 180
viii CONTENTS
TheCentrifugeChallenge 181
LaserIsotopeSeparation 186
OtherAspectsofIranianActivity 188
IranianCommitmenttoNuclearPowerPrograms 191
ACONTINUINGPROCESSOFDISCOVERY 192
CHAPTER12:IRAN’SSTRATEGICCAPABILITIESANDTHE 195
POSSIBLERESPONSE
IRAN’SCONVENTIONALWEAKNESSESANDSTRENGTHS 196
Iran’sLimitedConventionalOffensiveCapabilities 196
IranasaDefensivePower 198
Iran’sConventionalForcesandIraq 198
IRANASANASYMMETRICTHREAT 199
TheIranianThreatintheGulf 199
‘‘ClosingtheGulf?’’ 200
OtherContingencies 201
IRAN’SUSEOFSTATEANDNONSTATEACTORSASPROXIESANDPARTNERS 202
‘‘Proxies’’and‘‘Partners’’ 202
TheStrengthsandWeaknessesofSuchOperations 203
TheIraqOption 204
IRANASANUCLEARPOWERARMEDWITHLONG-RANGEMISSILES 209
SanctionsandEconomicVulnerability 210
PetroleumSanctions 211
PetroleumandProductSanctions 213
FinancialSanctions 214
IfIranBecomesaSeriousNuclearPower 215
IRANASARELIGIOUSANDIDEOLOGICALTHREATINAREGIONANDANISLAMIC 216
WORLDPOLARIZEDALONGSECTARIANLINES
LIMITINGIRAN’SCURRENTANDFUTUREOPPORTUNITIESFOROPPORTUNISM 218
ActionsbytheUnitedStates,theEU,OtherOutsidePowers,andtheUN 218
ActionsbyIran’sNeighbors 221
THEWORSTCASE:ISRAELIANDU.S.COUNTER-NUCLEARSTRIKESONIRAN 222
TheProblemofTargeting 223
IsraeliOptions 226
PossibleMethodsofIsraeliAttack 226
IranianDefenseagainstIsraeli(andU.S.)Strikes 231
IranianRetaliationagainstIsrael 232
U.S.OptionsagainstIran 232
PossibleU.S.StrikeMethods 233
PossibleU.S.WarPlans:Attacking,Delaying,andWaitingOut 235
IranianRetaliationagainstU.S.Strikes 235
NOSHORTOREASYROAD 241
NOTES 243
Figures
FIGURE1.1:IRAN’SFORCESRELATIVETOTHOSEOFOTHERMAJOR 2
NEIGHBORINGMILITARYPOWERSIN2007
FIGURE1.2:GULFMILITARYFORCESIN2007—PARTONE 3
FIGURE1.3:GULFMILITARYFORCESIN2007—PARTTWO 6
FIGURE1.4:THEGROWINGVOLUMEOFGULFOILEXPORTS,2003–2030 25
FIGURE2.1:IRAN 28
FIGURE3.1:COMPARATIVEGULFMILITARYSPENDING 32
FIGURE3.2:IRAN’SARMSIMPORTSBYSUPPLIER,1993–2005 33
FIGURE3.3:COMPARATIVEGULFNEWARMSDELIVERIES 34
FIGURE3.4:COMPARATIVEGULFNEWARMSIMPORTAGREEMENTS 35
FIGURE3.5:COMPARATIVETRENDSINGULFTOTALACTIVEMILITARY 36
MANPOWER,1979–2007
FIGURE3.6:TOTALACTIVEMILITARYMANPOWERINALLGULFFORCES, 37
1990–2007
FIGURE3.7:TOTALGULFMILITARYMANPOWERBYCOUNTRYBYSERVICEIN2007 38
FIGURE4.1:TOTALACTIVEARMYMANPOWERINALLGULFFORCES2007 41
FIGURE4.2:TOTALGULFOPERATIONALARMOREDFIGHTINGVEHICLES,2007 42
FIGURE4.3:TOTALOPERATIONALMAINBATTLETANKSINALLGULFFORCES, 43
1979–2007
FIGURE4.4:MEDIUM-TOHIGH-QUALITYMAINBATTLETANKSBYTYPE,2007 44
FIGURE4.5:TOTALOPERATIONALOTHERARMOREDVEHICLES[LIGHTTANKS, 48
LIGHTARMOREDVEHICLES(LAVS),AIFVS,APCS,ANDRECONNAISSANCE
(RECCE)]INGULFFORCES,1990–2007
FIGURE4.6:GULFOTHERARMOREDFIGHTINGVEHICLESBYCATEGORY,2007 49