Iran’s Foreign Policy After the Nuclear Agreement

261 Pages·2019·4.1 MB·English

by  Farhad Rezaei

Farhad Rezaei
IRAN’S FOREIGN
POLICY AFTER
THE NUCLEAR
AGREEMENT
Politics of Normalizers
and Traditionalists
MET
Middle East
Today
Middle East Today
Series Editors
Fawaz A. Gerges
Department of International Relations
London School of Economics
London, UK
Nader Hashemi
Center for Middle East Studies
University of Denver
Denver, CO, USA
The Iranian Revolution of 1979, the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, and the
US invasion and occupation of Iraq have dramatically altered the geopo-
litical landscape of the contemporary Middle East. The Arab Spring upris-
ings have complicated this picture. This series puts forward a critical body
of first-rate scholarship that reflects the current political and social realities
of the region, focusing on original research about contentious politics and
social movements; political institutions; the role played by non-
governmental organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Muslim
Brotherhood; and the Israeli-Palestine conflict. Other themes of interest
include Iran and Turkey as emerging pre-eminent powers in the region,
the former an ‘Islamic Republic’ and the latter an emerging democracy
currently governed by a party with Islamic roots; the Gulf monarchies,
their petrol economies and regional ambitions; potential problems of
nuclear proliferation in the region; and the challenges confronting the
United States, Europe, and the United Nations in the greater Middle
East. The focus of the series is on general topics such as social turmoil, war
and revolution, international relations, occupation, radicalism, democracy,
human rights, and Islam as a political force in the context of the modern
Middle East.
More information about this series at
http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/14803
Farhad Rezaei
Iran’s Foreign Policy
After the Nuclear
Agreement
Politics of Normalizers and Traditionalists
Farhad Rezaei
Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara
Ankara, Turkey
Middle East Today
ISBN 978-3-319-76788-8 ISBN 978-3-319-76789-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76789-5
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018935699
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of
translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,
electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now
known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the
publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to
the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The
publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and
institutional affiliations.
Cover design by Thomas Howey
Printed on acid-free paper
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer
International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
This book is for you, Dad. As you look down from heaven, I hope you’re
proud of your son.
C
ontents
1 The Negotiated Political Order and the Making of Iran’s
Foreign Policy 1
The Negotiated Political Order: A Precarious Balancing Act 6
Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Between Idealism and Realism 12
Beyond the JCPOA: Normalization and Its Challenges 16
Conclusion 18
References 19
2 Iran and the United States: The Rise and Fall of the Brief
Détente 21
Implementing the JCPOA: The Making or Breaking
of Normalization 27
Limiting Terror and Military Interventions: Mission
Impossible? 34
Improving Iran’s Human Right Record: Another Mission
Impossible? 40
Conclusion 44
References 45
3 Iran and Russia: Completing the Pivot to the East? 51
Building an Economic and Strategic Alliance
with Vladimir Putin 53
Laying the Foundations for a Russian–Iranian
Condominium in Syria 62
vii
viii CONTENTS
The Russian–Iranian Strategy of Preserving the “Binary
Option:” Fighting the Anti-Assad Insurgents 65
The Russian–Iranian Relations in the Trump Era: Future
Prospect for the Condominium 70
Conclusion 73
References 74
4 Iran and the European Union: Challenges
and Opportunities 83
The EU and the Path Toward the JCPOA: From Mediator
to a Key Player 85
Restarting the EU–Iran Relations: The Economic Dimension 88
The EU to the Defense: Fighting the American Sanctions 95
EU’s Human Rights Convention and Iran: A Discordant Tone
in a Warm Relationship 102
Conclusion 106
References 106
5 Iran and Iraq: The Lebanonization Project in the Balance 113
Lebanonization of Iraq: Laying the Foundations of the Project 115
IRGC and the Making of the Islamic State in Iraq 124
Toward a Shiite–Sunni–Kurdish Federation? 129
Conclusion 135
References 137
6 Iran and Syria: Leveraging the Victory? 141
From Arab Spring to Civil War 145
From a Neo-Protectorate to a Syrian Federation? 154
Conclusion 157
References 158
7 Iran and Saudi Arabia: The Struggle for Regional
Hegemony and Islamic Primacy 163
The Arab Spring in the Gulf: From Popular Protest
to Civil War 166
Rouhani’s Short Détente with Saudi Arabia: The War
in Yemen as a Spoiler 168
CONTENT S ix
The Trump Administration: Tilting the Balance
Toward Saudi Arabia 175
Conclusion 182
References 183
8 Iran and Turkey: Frenemies for Ever? 189
Beyond the Kurds: Working Out the Kinks in the Bilateral
Relation 194
The Arab Spring: Enemies More Than Friends 196
Operation Euphrates Shield: The View from Ankara
and Tehran 201
The Frenemies Endgame: Iran–Turkish Space—Sharing
in the Middle East? 204
Conclusion 207
References 208
9 Iran and Israel: Taking on the “Zionist Enemy” 215
Rouhani’s Quest to Change the Attitude to Israel: Realism
and Idealism on a Collision Course 221
Bolstering the Anti-Israel Proxies: Hezbollah, Hamas,
and Palestinian Islamic Jihad 225
Cumulative Deterrence and “War Between Wars”: IDF’s
Response to Asymmetrical Warfare 231
The End-Game in Syria: Israel’s Gains and Losses 234
Conclusion 236
References 237
1 0 Conclusions 243
I ndex 247
A A
bout the uthor
Farhad Rezaei is a senior Iran analyst at the Centre for Iranian Studies
(IRAM), Ankara, Turkey.
He is a member and contributor to the Association for the Study of the
Middle East and Africa (ASMEA), and the Gulf 2000 Middle East Project
at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs,
New York.
Dr. Rezaei is the author of several books, numerous articles and pub-
lished papers on a broad range of topics, including Iran’s foreign policy,
Iran’s nuclear program, nuclear weapons proliferation and nuclear and
radiological terrorism. These include 1) Iran’s Nuclear Program: A
Study in Proliferation and Rollback, New York: Palgrave Macmillan,
2017, and 2) Iran, Israel and the United States: The Politics of Counter-
proliferation Intelligence, (co-authored), Lexington Books, Rowman &
Littlefield 2018.
His articles have been published by Harvard–Iran Matters, the National
Interest, Middle East Policy, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies,
Journal of International Affairs, Insight Turkey, Korean Journal of Defense
Analysis, Asian Affairs, Atlantic Council, and The Hill, among others.
xi