Table Of ContentCALIFORNIA SEMINAR
ON
ARMS CONTROL
AND
FOREIGN POLICY
JANUARY 1975
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
' 'NEW MODE OF CONFLICT
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BRIAN JENKINS
48
$ 2.25
CALIFORNIA SEMINAR
on ARMS CONTROL and FOREIGN POLICY
Post Office Box 925 • Santa Monica, California 90406
Executive Committee Co-Chairmen
Harold Brown, California Institute of Technology David Elliot
David Elliot, California Institute of Technology Charles Wolf, Jr.
Donald Rice, The Rand Corporation
Henry Rowen, Stanford University
Albert Wohlstetter, University of Chicago
Charles Wolf, Jr., The Rand Corporation
Executive Director
Giro Zoppo, University of California, Los Angeles
The Seminar was established by the Ford Foundation to broaden the
geographic base of the national debate on foreign policy, deterrence, and
arms control. It is jointly sponsored by the California Institute of Technol¬
ogy and by The Rand Corporation.
The Seminar welcomes and encourages diversity of viewpoints and of pro¬
fessional backgrounds. The Seminar does not represent or promote any
particular or institutional policy on the public issues it considers. The views
expressed in this paper are the author's alone.
THE AUTHOR
Brian Jenkins is presently a staff member of the Social Science Depart¬
ment of The Rand Corporation. His major area of interest is political
conspiracy and violence, and for the past two years he has devoted his
attention to international terrorism. He received his B.A. in fine arts and
M.A. in history from the University of California at Los Angeles. As the
recipient of a Fulbright fellowship and a fellowship from the Organization
of American States, he spent two years in the Faculty of Humanities at the
University of San Carlos in Guatemala. His doctoral dissertation examines
a number of political conspiracies in Guatemala.
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
A NEW MODE OF CONFLICT
Brian Jenkins
Research Paper No.'48
California Seminar on Arms Control and Foreign Policy
Copyright © by California Seminar on Arms Control and
Foreign Policy
Printed in the United States of America
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any
form without permission, in writing, from the publisher, except by
a reviewer who wishes to quote brief passages in connection with a
review in a magazine or newspaper.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 75-14952
ISBN 0-89144-0003
PREFACE
This paper was originally presented at the fifth course of the International
School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts held at the Collegio Uni-
versitario in Urbino, Italy, 12-14 August 1974.* I would like to express my
gratitude to Dr. Ciro Zoppo, Director, California Seminar on Arms Control
and Foreign Policy, for his encouragement and support in the completion of
the paper, and to Dr. Carlo Schaerf, Director of the School, for his invitation
to present the paper in Italy. I would also like to thank the distinguished in¬
ternational group of scholars and students who attended the meeting for their
many helpful comments. Finally, I am indebted to Dr. David Ronfeldt and
Dr. Ralph Strauch of The Rand Corporation for their thorough and penetrat¬
ing reviews of the paper. With their permission I have incorporated several
of their points into the text.
*Portions of the paper were contained in an earlier written statement sub¬
mitted to the Subcommittee on the Near East and South Asia, Committee on
Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, Congress of the United States, 24
June 1974.
ABSTRACT
Terrorists are demonstrating that small groups with a limited capacity for
violence can achieve disproportionately large effects in the world. They have
attracted worldwide attention, they have caused worldwide alarm, and they
have compelled powerful governments to negotiate with them. The actual
amount of violence carried out by terrorists has been greatly exaggerated. Up
to now, the total number of casualties and the costs of damage resulting from
acts of terrorism have been quite small compared to the volume of violence
throughout the world. But the consequences of terrorism go far beyond any¬
thing yet achieved or contemplated by the terrorists. The technical develop¬
ments that have made international terrorism possible worldwide jet air travel,
radio, television, communication satellites, new vulnerabilities in a world in¬
creasingly dependent on fragile technology, new man-portable weapons-will
continue. These developments will afford small bands an increasing capacity
for gaining worldwide attention, and for destruction and disruption on a grow¬
ing scale. The instruments of warfare once possessed only by armies are com¬
ing into the hands of gangs whose grievances, real or imagined, it will not be
possible to satisfy. Also, nations themselves may use terrorists or adopt their
tactics as a means of waging surrogate warfare against other nations. Ulti¬
mately, the concept of warfare itself, and those of security and defense, could
be altered by these developments. The problems of arms control will increase.
Conceivably, the impact could be as profound as that created by the introduc¬
tion of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
CONTENTS
PREFACE. iii
ABSTRACT . v
DEFINING TERRORISM . 1
PROMISCUOUS USE OF THE TERM TERRORISM. 2
THE THEORY OF TERRORISM . 3
THE PURPOSES OF TERROR. 4
INDISCRIMINATE OR SELECTIVE VIOLENCE. 8
DEFINING INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. 9
THE ACTUAL EFFECTS OF TERRORISM . 12
THE EFFECT ON THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER. 14
A FEEBLE RESPONSE. 16
NEW TARGETS AND NEW CAPABILITIES. 18
“SIMULTANEOUS REVOLUTION” OR SURROGATE WARFARE .. 19
BEYOND TERRORISM. 23
SOURCE NOTES . 25
APPENDIX: Chronology of Recent Incidents of
International Terrorism . 27
SEMINAR PUBLICATIONS 49
