Table Of ContentTobias Böhmelt
International Mediation Interaction
VS RESEARCH
Tobias Böhmelt
International
Mediation
Interaction
Synergy, Conflict, Effectiveness
VS RESEARCH
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1st Edition 2011
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Acknowledgements
The following book is based upon my PhD dissertation submitted to the
Department of Government at the University of Essex, UK, in April 2010. Its
completion took a significant amount of my time and I am indebted to more
people than I can possibly list here. Nevertheless, first of all I want to thank
those persons who had a direct influence on the contents of this manuscript.
These firstly include my PhD supervisor, Kristian S. Gleditsch, as well as the
members of my supervisory board, Hugh Ward and Vera E. Troeger. Without
their expertise, helpful comments and support I could not have done this.
I also would like to thank those people who continuously provided me with
advice and/or whom I have collaborated with on various papers. First and
foremost, these are Ulrich H. Pilster and Spyros Kosmidis. In alphabetical order
then follow Kyle Beardsley, Xun Cao, Nathan Danneman, Han Dorussen,
Lawrence Ezrow, Natasha Ezrow, Vera Guill, Todd Landman, Nigel Lo, Nils
Metternich, Daniel Millan, Andrea Ruggeri, Gerald Schneider, Willem Schudel,
Thomas J. Scotto, Laura Seelkopf, and Chi-Mao Tang. In particular, however, I
am indebted to Anja Neundorf who not only discussed with me the nature of
research, science and academia on various occasions, but also supported and
encouraged me in countless ways throughout my time in Essex.
As for the people who have influenced me as a person during the last three
years, these are certainly too many to enumerate. A good way to sum this up,
however, is to name – first among equals – my mother Christa followed by my
siblings as well as my friends. Their continued help and support is also very well
appreciated.
I am also grateful for the scholarships from the University of Essex and the
Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) for making all this possible in
the first place as well as for a scholarship from Emory University that enabled
me to work there as a visiting researcher during Fall Term 2009. Last but not
least, I thank Anita Wilke from the editorial team at VS Research.
All errors and faults are my own.
Tobias Böhmelt
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Abstract
A specific set of factors, which are related to the belligerents, any third parties
that (anticipate to) intervene or both of them, determine among other influences
whether a conflict is likely to see mediation efforts in the first place and
ultimately the prospects for successful mediation outcomes. However, although
there is an extensive body of literature, qualitatively and quantitatively, on all
these issues, the previous research rarely addressed the interaction between these
actors in conflict and mediation attempts, i.e. how both belligerents and/or
mediating parties are tied to each other and how they coordinate an intervention.
Hence, inter alia, questions like “which kinds of relationships and ties between
antagonists determine the likelihood of mediation onset” or “how does the
interaction between multiple mediators affect successful conflict resolution”
have not yet been entirely clarified – despite the fact that answering these
questions not only helps to have a more precise understanding of mediation from
an academic point of view, but is also likely to produce significant policy
implications. In order to address these shortcomings, this book presents
substantial chapters on four interrelated, albeit different issues of actors’ inter-
actions in international mediation as a tool for settling conflicts peacefully.
Relying on a rationalist framework of conflict and actors as well as
employing quantitative methods, the book demonstrates several important
findings. First, mediation occurs according to the complex patterns of direct and
indirect relationships between the disputants. While direct links, i.e. bilateral ties
between the warring parties, are unlikely to facilitate mediation onset, indirect
links that involve various intermediaries in a conflict seem to increase the
chances that a dispute finally sees third-party mediation. However, depending on
the type of these ties, the predicted effect of those interactions may not be that
straightforward. More precisely, the book theoretically argues and empirically
demonstrates that bilateral trade flows between antagonists significantly increase
the chances of mediation occurrence, while trade links to parties outside this
dyad actually decrease them. Second, most mediation attempts do not see one
intervener, but a coalition of mediators instead. The following manuscript shows
that this “multi-track diplomacy” or “multi-party mediation” and the interaction
between those mediating parties is generally able to positively influence me-
diation outcomes, but as soon as a coalition of mediators is disaggregated into its
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distinctive micro foundations, it may well be that “too many cooks spoil the
soup,” making mediation eventually less effective.
Accounting for these links and interactions between the conflicting and/or
mediating parties, the findings demonstrate that – depending on the circum-
stances – the chances of mediation onset may be higher than originally
anticipated and also that mediation can be an effective instrument towards the
peaceful resolution of conflicts. Also, while taking steps to mitigate selection
problems and omitted variable bias, the results emphasize that traditional
predictors of both mediation onset and effectiveness, such as dispute intensity or
belligerents’ incentives, may play a far minor role than the previous literature
may have suggested.
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Table of Contents
List of Figures................................................................................................................................. 11
List of Tables................................................................................................................................... 13
1. Introduction...................................................................................................................... 15
1.1. A Rationalist Approach to Conflict Management........................................................ 17
1.2. Overview of the Book Project...................................................................................... 19
2. Main Data Source: The International Conflict Management Data............................. 23
2.1. The International Conflict Management Data – An Overview.................................... 23
2.2. The International Crisis Behavior and SHERFACS Data – Alternative Data
Sources......................................................................................................................... 25
2.3. The Utility of the ICM Data – An Introduction........................................................... 26
2.4. Conclusion.................................................................................................................... 30
3. International Mediation and Social Networks: The Importance of Indirect
Ties................................................................................................................................... 31
3.1. Literature Review......................................................................................................... 32
3.2. A Theory of International Mediation and Social Networks......................................... 34
3.2.1. The Effect of Direct Links on Mediation Onset..................................................... 37
3.2.2. The Effect of Indirect Links on Mediation Onset.................................................. 39
3.3. Research Design........................................................................................................... 42
3.3.1. Data........................................................................................................................ 42
3.3.2. Operationalisation.................................................................................................. 43
3.3.3. Control Variables................................................................................................... 44
3.4. Empirical Findings....................................................................................................... 45
3.5. Conclusion.................................................................................................................... 50
4. The Impact of Trade on International Mediation......................................................... 53
4.1. The Relationship of Trade and Conflict – An Overview............................................. 55
4.2. International Mediation and Trade – Literature Review.............................................. 56
4.3. A Theory on International Mediation and Trade.......................................................... 58
4.3.1. An Opportunity Costs Model................................................................................. 61
4.3.2. The Impact of Bilateral Trade on Mediation.......................................................... 62
4.3.3. The Impact of Trade Links to Third Parties on Mediation..................................... 64
4.3.4. The Impact of the Interaction of Bilateral Trade and Trade Links
to Third Parties on Mediation................................................................................. 65
4.4. Research Design........................................................................................................... 67
4.4.1. Dependent Variable................................................................................................ 67
4.4.2. Explanatory Variables............................................................................................ 67
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4.4.3. Control Variables................................................................................................... 68
4.4.4. Estimation Procedure............................................................................................. 70
4.5. Data Analysis............................................................................................................... 72
4.5.1. Empirical Findings................................................................................................. 72
4.5.2. Robustness Checks................................................................................................. 78
4.6. Discussion.................................................................................................................... 80
5. The Effectiveness of Tracks of Diplomacy Strategies in Third-Party Mediation...... 83
5.1. Literature Review: The Concept of Tracks of Diplomacy........................................... 85
5.2. The Effectiveness of Tracks of Diplomacy Strategies – Theoretical Model............... 87
5.2.1. Understanding Mediation Effectiveness................................................................ 87
5.2.2. Official Diplomacy – Track One............................................................................ 88
5.2.3. Unofficial Diplomacy – Track Two and Track-One-and-a-Half......................... 89
5.2.4. Multi-Track Diplomacy – Combined Efforts of Official and Unofficial
Diplomacy.............................................................................................................. 91
5.3. Research Design........................................................................................................... 93
5.3.1. Methodology.......................................................................................................... 93
5.3.2. Data........................................................................................................................ 94
5.3.3. Operationalisation.................................................................................................. 94
5.3.4. Control Variables................................................................................................... 94
5.4. Results.......................................................................................................................... 96
5.5. Conclusion.................................................................................................................... 100
6. The Impact of Multi-Party Mediation in International Interventions:
Synergy, Conflict, Effectiveness.................................................................................... 103
6.1. Literature Review......................................................................................................... 105
6.2. Theory: The Impact of Multi-Party Mediation – Size, Conflict, Cooperation
and Regime Type......................................................................................................... 108
6.2.1. Size......................................................................................................................... 108
6.2.2. Conflicting and Cooperative Interactions............................................................... 110
6.2.3. Regime Type.......................................................................................................... 112
6.3. Research Design........................................................................................................... 113
6.3.1. Data........................................................................................................................ 113
6.3.2. Dependent Variable............................................................................................... 114
6.3.3. Explanatory Variables............................................................................................ 115
6.4. Empirical Findings....................................................................................................... 118
6.5. Robustness.................................................................................................................... 124
6.6. Discussion.................................................................................................................... 126
7. Conclusion......................................................................................................................... 129
7.1. Academic Contribution and Policy Implications......................................................... 131
7.2. Discussion of Research................................................................................................ 134
7.3. Avenues for Future Research....................................................................................... 135
Bibliography.................................................................................................................................... 137
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