International Arctic Petroleum Cooperation: Barents Sea Scenarios

318 Pages·2015·3.95 MB·English

by  Anatoli Bourmistrov

International Arctic Petroleum
Cooperation: Barents Sea scenarios
The Arctic region contains large amounts of natural resources considered necessary to
sustain global economic growth, so it is unsurprising that it is increasingly susceptible to
political, economic, environmental and even military conflicts. This book looks in detail at
the preconditions and outlook for international cooperation on the development of Arc-
tic petroleum resources, focusing on Norwegian–Russian cooperation in the Barents Sea
towards 2025.
The authors provide a cross-disciplinary approach including geopolitical, institutional,
technological, corporate and environmental perspectives to analyze the underlying fac-
tors that shape the future development of the region. Three future scenarios are developed,
exploring various levels of cooperation and development influenced by and resulting from
potential political, commercial and environmental circumstances. Through these scenarios,
the book improves understanding of the challenges and opportunities for Arctic petroleum
resource development and promotes further consideration of the possible outcomes of future
cooperation.
The book should be of interest to students, scholars and policy-makers working in the
areas of Arctic studies, oil and gas studies, energy security, global environmental governance,
environmental politics and environmental technology.
Anatoli Bourmistrov is professor and Head of Section at Bodø Graduate School of Busi-
ness, University of Nordland, Norway, and project manager at the High North Center for
Business.
Frode Mellemvik is Director of the High North Center and professor at Bodø Graduate
School of Business, University of Nordland, Norway.
Alexei Bambulyak is Country Manager, Russia, at the research company Akvaplan-
niva, Norway.
Ove Gudmestad is professor of marine technology at the University of Stavanger, Norway.
Indra Overland is head of the Russia, Eurasia and Arctic Research Group at the Norwe-
gian Institute of International Affairs and Professor II at Bodø Graduate School of Business,
University of Nordland, Norway.
Anatoly Zolotukhin is Counsellor on International Affairs, Research Director of the Insti-
tute of Arctic Petroleum Technologies and Professor of Petroleum Reservoir Engineering at
Gubkin University, Moscow, Russia.
Routledge Studies in Environmental Policy
Land and Resource Scarcity
Capitalism, Struggle and Well-being in a World without Fossil Fuels
Edited by Andreas Exner, Peter Fleissner, Lukas Kranzl and Werner Zittel
Nuclear Energy Safety and International Cooperation
Closing the World’s Most Dangerous Reactors
Spencer Barrett Meredith, III
The Politics of Carbon Markets
Edited by Benjamin Stephan and Richard Lane
The Limits of the Green Economy
Matthias Lievens and Anneleen Kenis
Public Policy and Land Exchange
Choice, Law and Praxis
Giancarlo Panagia
International Arctic Petroleum Cooperation
Barents Sea Scenarios
Edited by Anatoli Bourmistrov, Frode Mellemvik, Alexei Bambulyak, Ove Gudmestad,
Indra Overland and Anatoly Zolotukhin
International Arctic
Petroleum Cooperation
Barents Sea scenarios
Edited by Anatoli Bourmistrov,
Frode Mellemvik, Alexei Bambulyak,
Ove Gudmestad, Indra Overland
and Anatoly Zolotukhin
First published 2015
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2015 Anatoli Bourmistrov, Frode Mellemvik, Alexei Bambulyak, Ove
Gudmestad, Indra Overland and Anatoly Zolotukhin, selection and editorial
material; individual chapters, the contributors
The right of the editors to be identified as the authors of the editorial
material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted
in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and
Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or
registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation
without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
International Arctic petroleum cooperation : Barents Sea scenarios /
edited by Anatoli Bourmistrov, Frode Mellemvik, Alexei Bambulyak,
Ove Gudmestad, Indra Overland and Anatoly Zolotukhin.
pages cm. — (Routledge studies in environmental policy)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Petroleum industry and trade—Barents Sea Region. 2. Petroleum
industry and trade—Norway. 3. Petroleum industry and trade—Russia
(Federation) 4. Petroleum—Barents Sea Region. 5. Petroleum—
Norway. 6. Petroleum—Russia (Federation) I. Bourmistrov, Anatoli.
HD9576.B392I58 2015
333.8'2309163'24—dc23
2014048376
ISBN: 978-1-138-78326-3 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-315-76876-2 (ebk)
Typeset in Bembo
by Apex CoVantage, LLC
Contents
List of figures viii
List of tables x
Abbreviations xii
Contributors xvii
Foreword xxiv
PART I
Introduction and scenarios 1
1 Introduction 3
ANATOLI BOURMISTROV AND FRODE MELLEMVIK
2 Barents Sea oil and gas 2025: three scenarios 11
INDRA OVERLAND, ALEXEI BAMBULYAK, ANATOLI BOURMISTROV,
OVE GUDMESTAD, FRODE MELLEMVIK, AND ANATOLY ZOLOTUKHIN
PART II
Politics, economics and experience of cooperation 33
3 The international context for Barents oil and
gas – Asia’s double impact 35
INDRA OVERLAND, NODARI SIMONIA, SERGEY VASILIEV, AND ELANA
WILSON ROWE
4 Resource management regimes in the Barents Sea 53
ALEXEI BAMBULYAK, SVETLANA GOLUBEVA, MARIA SYDNES, ARE
KRISTOFFER SYDNES, LARS-HENRIK LARSEN, AND VLADA STRELETSKAYA
vi Contents
5 Driving forces for Norwegian–Russian petroleum B2B
cooperation: implications for the Barents Sea 77
ANATOLI BOURMISTROV, JUNE BORGE DOORNICH, AND
ANDREY KRIVOROTOV
6 Norwegian–Russian political relations and Barents oil
and gas developments 97
INDRA OVERLAND AND ANDREY KRIVOROTOV
7 Norwegian–Russian cooperation on oil and gas education 111
ANATOLI BOURMISTROV, OVE GUDMESTAD, VALERY SALYGIN, AND
ANATOLY ZOLOTUKHIN
PART III
Technology and the natural environment 123
8 Structure of the geological section and the main features
of oil and gas content 125
MARK VERBA, GENNADY IVANOV, AND ANATOLY ZOLOTUKHIN
9 Barents Sea hydrocarbon resource base and
production potential 147
ANATOLY ZOLOTUKHIN, ANTON SUNGUROV, AND VLADA
STRELETSKAYA
10 Development of hydrocarbon fields in the newly
delineated border area of Norway and Russia
with emphasis on subsea development schemes 161
MARIA BULAKH, OVE GUDMESTAD, AND ANATOLY ZOLOTUKHIN
11 Petroleum production facilities in Arctic operational
environments 184
TORE MARKESET, ANETTE SÆLAND, OVE GUDMESTAD, AND
JAVAD BARABADY
12 Crisis management considerations and designs
in cold climate areas 204
OVE NJÅ AND OVE GUDMESTAD
Contents vii
13 Environmental effects of oil and gas exploration
and production in the Barents Sea 225
ROALD KOMMEDAL, ANDREA BAGI, AND TOR HEMMINGSEN
14 Winterization of onshore facilities and outdoor work areas 251
PER-ARNE SUNDSBØ
Index 275
List of Figures
2.1 Scenario star with all three scenarios 12
2.2 Time machine – how the future may be shaped by the
interaction of factors 21
2.3 Fingerprint of the scenario “After You, Sir” 22
2.4 Fingerprint of the scenario “Parallel Play” 24
2.5 Fingerprint of the scenario “Let’s Dance” 26
2.6 Wild cards in the development of petroleum resources in the
Barents Sea 27
3.1 Global oil and gas demand growth over projection period
(in Mtoe) 37
3.2 Natural gas prices highlighting strength of demand in the
Asia–Pacific countries (US dollars per million Btu) 42
3.3 LNG exports from Russia (bcm) 43
8.1 Map of the Barents Region geological zoning of oilfields 126
8.2 Part of geological–geophysical section of the AR-4 seismic line 139
9.1 Barents Sea fields and some of the prospective structures 148
9.2 Expected ultimate recovery (EUR) resources of the Barents
Sea, Norwegian and Russian (including the Pechora
Sea) parts. Left: split by probability (P90, P50, Pmean,
Prospective); Right: split by life cycle 150
9.3 EUR resources of the Barents Sea, Norwegian and Russian
(including the Pechora Sea) parts. Left: split by liquid/gas;
Right: split by the area (note the former disputed area) 150
9.4 Discovered fields and prospective structures of the Pechora Sea 153
9.5 Liquid and gas production from Norwegian and Russian
(including the Pechora Sea) parts of the Barents Sea, million
boe/year 154
9.6 Production profiles for the Barents Sea: Norwegian and
Russian (including the Pechora Sea) parts, million boe/year 155
9.7 Contribution of the Norwegian and Russian (including the
Pechora Sea) sectors in overall production from the Barents
Sea, million boe/year 156
9.8 Petroleum Resources Management System 156
9.9 Internal consistency of the resourced and production
variables in UCube 157
List of Figures ix
9.10 Resource classification proxy in UCube 158
10.1 Barents Sea regions 163
10.2 Currents in the Barents Sea 164
10.3 Wave heights and periods in the Western Barents Sea
compared to other areas on the Norwegian continental shelf 166
10.4 Polar low pressure in the Barents Sea, east of the former
disputed area 167
10.5 Annual probability of occurrence of icebergs 169
10.6 Artistic view, principal scheme of subsea-to-shore development 175
10.7 Possible High North development layouts (LNG transport
and/or pipelines) 181
13.1 Main conversion and spreading mechanisms affecting the
fate and effect of oil spills in the marine environment 228
13.2 Simplified Barents Sea food web 235
13.3 How oil interacts with sea ice 238
14.1 Modern onshore O&G production facilities are considerably
larger than traditional settlements in the Arctic 252
14.2 The Inuit igloo 254
14.3 Snowdrift around the streamlined-rectangular Viking
longhouse design. All doors are located on the long sides,
parallel to the wind 255
14.4 Traditional Norwegian grain barn on pillars located at Bardu
rural museum 255
14.5 Snowdrift and sweeping winds around a traditional
Norwegian storehouse on pillars 255
14.6 The influence of snowdrift over flat ground around an
ordinary 10-foot fence, with one-inch space between the
vertical boards 256
14.7 Effect of snow-fence porosity on drifts formed by
snow-collector fence located on flat terrain 258
14.8 Modeling of snowdrift around a building elevated 1.45 m
above the terrain (Sakhalin II Phase 2 project) 259
14.9 Measures for collection and deflection of snow using
barriers and snow-controlling designs 261
14.10 Siting 262
14.11 Outer shielding snow fence for onshore facility (designed by
Sundsbø for company) 264
14.12 Outer shielding system for onshore facility (designed by
Sundsbø for company) 264
14.13 Snow wall protecting from blowing snow entrainment into
semi-open shelter on onshore processing facility (designed
by Sundsbø for company) 265
14.14 Naturally ventilated shelters 267
14.15 Selected design proposal and redesign for case study 268
14.16 Wind chill and airflow around design proposal and redesign
for case study 270