Table Of ContentSpringer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics
Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos
Ruth Fuentes-García
Lizbeth Naranjo
Luis E. Nieto-Barajas
Silvia Ruiz-Velasco Acosta Editors
Interdisciplinary
Statistics in
Mexico
AME Virtual Meeting, September 10–11,
2020, and 34 FNE, Acatlán, Mexico,
September 22–24, 2021
Selected Contributions
Springer Proceedings in Mathematics &
Statistics
Volume 397
This book series features volumes composed of selected contributions from
workshops and conferences in all areas of current research in mathematics and
statistics,includingdatascience,operationsresearchandoptimization.Inaddition
to an overall evaluation of the interest, scientific quality, and timeliness of each
proposalatthehandsofthepublisher,individualcontributionsareallrefereedtothe
highqualitystandardsofleadingjournalsinthefield.Thus,thisseriesprovidesthe
researchcommunitywithwell-edited,authoritativereportsondevelopmentsinthe
mostexcitingareasofmathematicalandstatisticalresearchtoday.
·
Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos
· ·
Ruth Fuentes-García Lizbeth Naranjo
·
Luis E. Nieto-Barajas Silvia Ruiz-Velasco Acosta
Editors
Interdisciplinary Statistics
in Mexico
AME Virtual Meeting, September 10–11,
2020, and 34 FNE, Acatlán, Mexico,
September 22–24, 2021
Selected Contributions
Editors
IsadoraAntoniano-Villalobos RuthFuentes-García
DepartmentofEnvironmentalSciences, DepartmentofMathematics
InformaticsandStatistics FacultaddeCiencias,UNAM
Ca’FoscariUniversityofVenice MexicoCity,Mexico
Venice,Italy
LuisE.Nieto-Barajas
LizbethNaranjo DepartmentofStatistics
DepartmentofMathematics ITAM
FacultaddeCiencias,UNAM MexicoCity,Mexico
MexicoCity,Mexico
SilviaRuiz-VelascoAcosta
DepartmentofProbabilityandStatistics
IIMAS,UNAM
MexicoCity,Mexico
ISSN 2194-1009 ISSN 2194-1017 (electronic)
SpringerProceedingsinMathematics&Statistics
ISBN 978-3-031-12777-9 ISBN 978-3-031-12778-6 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12778-6
MathematicsSubjectClassification:62-06,34F05,60G15,60J60,60J75,62B05,62D05,62F10,62F15,
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Preface
Thisvolumeincludesaselectionofpeer-reviewedcontributionspresentedatthe2020
VirtualMeetingoftheMexicanStatisticalAssociation(AME)whichtookplaceon
September10to11andthe34FNEmeetingheldfrom22to24September,2021,on
thetheme“Statisticsinthemultidisciplinary”.
The FNE (Foro Nacional de Estadística) is the official meeting of the Mexican
StatisticalAssociation(AME),takingplaceannuallysince1986.In2018,the33FNE
washeldtogetherwiththeJointStatisticalMeetingofLatinAmerica,the13CLATSE
(Congreso Latino Americano de Sociedades de Estadística). On such occasion,
a collection of selected works was published as a book of proceedings entitled
SelectedContributionsonStatisticsandDataScienceinLatinAmerica.Thedeci-
sionwasmadetoholdtheFNEbiennially,publishing,eachtime,aselectionofhigh-
qualitypapersinasimilarvolume.Thefollowingeditionwasoriginallyplannedfor
September2020inMexicoCity.But,asthedategrewcloser,amidsttheCoronavirus
disease(COVID-19)pandemic,ithadtobepostponedhopingtheconditionswould
soonimproveandallowanon-siteevent.The2020AMEVirtualMeetingtookplace
instead. One year later, with sanitary and travel restrictions still active throughout
the globe, individuals and institutions sought new ways to adapt, to overcome the
fearandparalysis,andtomakeefforts,howeverlargeorsmall,toremainactiveand
connected. As many other events over the pandemic period, the 34FNE became a
virtualmeeting,andtheFacultaddeEstudiosSuperiores(FES)Acatlán,adecentral-
izedfacultyoftheUniversidadNacionalAutónomadeMéxico(UNAM)tookover
theresponsibilityoforganizingit.
The 2020 AME Virtual Meeting consisted of five plenary presentations, deliv-
eredbyMassimilianoCaporin(UniversityofPadua,Italy),DavidB.Dunson(Duke
University,USA),AlejandroJara(PontificiaUniversidadCatólicadeChile,Chile),
EstherRuizOrtega(UniversidadCarlosIIIdeMadrid,Spain),andYongcheolShin
(University of York, UK), and 12 parallel sessions on Inference, Networks and
waiting times, Multivariate analysis, Risk management, GARCH models and risk,
Biostatistics, Public health and safety, Statistical computing, Forecasting and the
exchangemarket,Statisticalmodeling,andCOVIDandEducation,foratotalof24
oralpresentations.
v
vi Preface
The scientific program of the 34FNE included a total of 39 oral presentations,
organizedintosevencontributed(COVID-19,Quickcounts,Statisticallearningand
finance,Statisticallearningandfunctionaldata,Finance,Socialstatistics,andUncer-
tainty Quantification and simulation), four invited (Statistics in the study of the
COVID-19pandemic,2021Quickcounts,Paleo-statistics,andCensusandnational
indicators),andsixplenarysessionsdeliveredbyRoyCampos(ConsultaMitofsky,
Mexico), Julia Palacios (Stanford University, USA), Arturo Erdely (FES-Acatlán,
UNAM,Mexico),GustavoCano(BuródeCrédito,Mexico),JorgeSoberón(Univer-
sityofKansas,USA),andJesúsRamos(SociedadMexicanadeCienciadeDatos,
Mexico). 20 poster presentations and 3 short courses on The use of the Python
programming language for Statistics, held by Andrés Christen (CIMAT, Mexico),
GustavoFuentes,andAlejandroLeonelMartínez(FES-Acatlán,UNAM,Mexico);
Statistics and Epidemiology, held by Mario Santana (IMATE-Juriquilla, UNAM,
Mexico);andTheJuliaprogramminglanguage,heldbyArturoErdely(FES-Acatlán,
UNAM,Mexico),completedtheprogram.
For their great effort in difficult times, we thank Vladimir Rodíguez Caballero
(ITAM) organizer of the AME 2020 Virtual Meeting, as well as all members of
the FES-Acatlán local organizing committee for the 34FNE: Christian Delgado
Elizondo, Mahil Herrera Maldonado (president), Luz María Lavín Alanís, and
Omar Ulises Morales Dávila. The high quality of the 34FNE was ensured by the
Scientific Committee: José Andrés Christen (CIMAT-Guanajuato), Mario Santana
Cibrian(IMATE-Juriquilla,UNAM),andMaríaGonzálezVidegaray(FES-Acatlán,
UNAM).AspecialrecognitionisduetoallparticipantsandtotheMexicanstatistical
community.Theongoingqualityoftheirworkgivessubstancetothisvolume.
It would not be honest to deny that scientific production was affected by the
pandemic,andtheworkoftheMexicanstatisticalcommunitywasnoexception.But
the work did not stop, the quality did not flounder. In a world full of uncertainty,
especiallyforyoungerresearchers,themissionoftheFNE,toofferopportunitiesfor
statisticiansandpractitionerstosharethelatestdevelopmentsinresearchandappli-
cations and toexpand their collaborative networks withinthecountry and interna-
tionally,isinfusedwithrenewedimportance.Weareconfidentthatthedevelopments
presented in this volume will be of interest to academics and practitioners around
theworld.
Venice,Italy IsadoraAntoniano-Villalobos
MexicoCity,Mexico RuthFuentes-García
MexicoCity,Mexico LizbethNaranjo
MexicoCity,Mexico LuisE.Nieto-Barajas
MexicoCity,Mexico SilviaRuiz-VelascoAcosta
June2022
Contents
AMethodologicalProposaltoModelandEvaluatetheComplexity
oftheMexicanGeo-ElectoralSystem ................................ 1
M.DavidAlvarez-HernándezandShaníAlvarez-Hernández
ASpatialAnalysisofDrugDealinginMexicoCity .................... 21
ShaníAlvarezHernández
BayesianHierarchicalMultinomialModelingofthe2021Mexican
ElectionOutcomeswithCensoredSamples .......................... 49
MichelleAnzarut,LuisFelipeGonzález,andMaríaTeresaOrtiz
Assessing Hospitalization for SARS-CoV-2 Confirmed Cases
byaCross-EntropyWeightedEnsembleClassifier .................... 65
RobertoBárcenasandRuthFuentes-García
EmotionAnalysistoIdentifyRiskofCommittingSuicideUsing
StatisticalLearning ................................................ 81
LuzJudithR.Esparza,DianaBarraza-Barraza,JesúsSalazarIbarra,
andRafaelG.VargasPasaye
Characterizing Groups Using Latent Class Mixed Models:
AntiretroviralTreatmentAdherenceAnalysis ........................ 97
RuthFuentes-García,LizbethNaranjo,andYaninkCaro-Vega
A Dynamic Model for Analyzing the Public Health Policy
oftheMexicanGovernmentDuringtheCOVID-19Pandemic ......... 115
E.IvánGuerrero-Flores, J.HéctorMorales-Bárcenas,
andGabrielNúñez-Antonio
SocialLagintheMunicipalitiesoftheStateofGuerrero,México ...... 131
MaríaGuzmán-MartínezandFernandoCamacho-Sandoval
Challenges in Performing the Quick Counts of the National
ElectoralInstituteinMexico ........................................ 151
GerardoOrantes-JordanandManuelMendoza
vii
viii Contents
Sampling Design and Poststratification to Correct Lack
ofInformationinBayesianQuickCounts ............................ 163
CarlosS.Pérez-PérezandLuisE.Nieto-Barajas
Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Markov-Modulated
Jump-DiffusionModel ............................................. 177
BorReynoso,F.Baltazar-Larios,andLauraEslava
Estimating the Composition of the Chamber of Deputies
intheQuickCountforthe2021FederalElectioninMexico ........... 193
CarlosE.Rodríguez
BayesianAnalysisofHomicideRatesinMexicofrom2000to2012 ..... 211
MaríadelosDoloresSánchez-Castañeda, LuisE.Nieto-Barajas,
andMaríadelPilarFuerteCelis
Index ............................................................. 229
A Methodological Proposal to Model and
Evaluate the Complexity of the Mexican
Geo-Electoral System
M.DavidAlvarez-HernándezandShaníAlvarez-Hernández
1 Introduction
To understand Mexico’s geo-electoral system, it is necessary to first explain how
it is defined. The concept of geo-electoral system refers to two main issues: (1)
thepolitical-electoralandsocio-demographiccharacteristicsofeachterritorialunit
ofthecountryand(2)theexistinginterrelationshipsbetweentheseterritorialunits
(see[1]).Inparticular,electoralsectionscanbeconsideredasthefundamentalunits
of the Mexican geo-electoral system, since they represent the base entity from the
administrativeandpolitical-electoralpointofview.
In this context, an elemental and basic part of any geo-electoral system are the
voter lists, since they are essential instruments to provide certainty and legitimacy
to the political-electoral processes that take place in a country. The task of con-
structing these instruments acquires different degrees of complexity depending on
thespecificcharacteristicsofthegeo-electoralsystems,sincefactorssuchaselec-
toral regulations, socio-political conditions, and the particular socio-demographic
and geographic characteristics of each nation come into play. In general terms, a
voter list constitutes a list of citizens that is integrated from a series of conditions
imposedbytheelectoralregulatoryframeworkthatgovernsitsconformation,partic-
ularlywithregardto(1)requirementsthatcitizensmustmeettobepartofthelist,(2)
meansofidentificationofthemembersofthelist,(3)physicalmeansofsafeguarding
theinformationofthelist,and(4)mechanismsforupdatingandconsolidatingthe
informationofthelist(see[2]).
B
M.D.Alvarez-Hernández( )
InstitutoNacionalElectoral,DireccióndeEstadística,MexicoCity,Mexico
e-mail:[email protected]
S.Alvarez-Hernández
JusticeProgram,UNODCMexico,MexicoCity,Mexico
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I.Antoniano-Villalobosetal.(eds.),InterdisciplinaryStatisticsinMexico,
SpringerProceedingsinMathematics&Statistics397,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12778-6_1
