Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture

186 Pages·2013·2.61 MB·English

by  Naumann, S.

Technology options for feeding 10 billion people
Interactions between climate change & agriculture
and between biodiversity & agriculture
Study
Science and Technology
Options Assessment

Technology options for feeding 10 billion people
Interactions between climate change & agriculture
and between biodiversity & agriculture
Study
IP/A/STOA/FWC/2008-096/Lot3/C1/SC5 -SC9

September 2013

PE 513.514
STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment
The STOA project 'Technology options for feeding 10 billion people - Interactions between climate
change & agriculture and biodiversity & agriculture' was carried out by the Institute for European
Environmental Policy (IEEP) in collaboration with BIO Intelligence Service, Ecologic Institute and the
Institute for Environmental Studies VU University.
AUTHORS
Underwood, E.; Poláková, J.; Kretschmer, B.; McConville, A.J.; Tucker, G.M. - IEEP
Dooley, E.; Frelih-Larsen, A; Naumann, S. -Ecologic Institute
Berman, S.; Sarteel, M.; Tostivint, C. -BIO Intelligence Service
van der Grijp, N.M. -Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University
Maxted, N. -School of Biosciences, University of Birmingham
STOA RESEARCH ADMINISTRATOR
Lieve Van Woensel
Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA)
Directorate for Impact Assessment and European Added Value
DG Internal Policies, European Parliament
Rue Wiertz 60 -RMD 00J012
B-1047 Brussels
E-mail: [email protected]
LINGUISTIC VERSION
Original: EN
ABOUT THE PUBLISHER
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This document is available on the Internet at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/stoa/

Manuscript completed in July 2013.
Brussels, © European Union, 2013.
DISCLAIMER
The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not
necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament.
Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is
acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy.
ISBN BA-03-13-491-EN-C
DOI 10.2861/33183
CAT 978-92-823-4735-5
Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture
Abstract
There will be rising global demand for food and energy from the land over the coming
decades resulting from population growth and economic development. This will coincide
with the need to adapt agriculture to increasing climate-related threats (which will probably
outweigh opportunities in Europe), whilst decreasing the impact of agricultural emissions
on climate change. At the same time, biodiversity losses due to intensive agricultural
practices and abandonment of biodiversity-rich farming are expected to continue. The long-
term sustainability of farming is being undermined by trends such as soil degradation,
declines in pollinators, the loss of natural biological control of pests and diseases, and the
loss of plant and animal genetic diversity. Substantial changes in agricultural systems are
required in Europe to ensure rapid reductions in agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases,
as well as effective adaptation to climate change and strengthened biodiversity conservation.
This report describes a range of practices and developments in agriculture that could
sustainably increase agricultural productivity whilst contributing to climate change
mitigation and adaptation, and providing biodiversity benefits. Policy could play a larger
role in supporting innovation and development in the full range of agricultural systems in
Europe and in the use of certain wastes and residues for energy purposes. The report
provides a set of recommended options for incentivising beneficial actions, constraining
unsustainable practices, and promoting innovative options whilst ensuring environmental
safeguards for new technologies that might have unwanted negative impacts on
biodiversity.
STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment
Recommended citation:
Underwood, E.1; Poláková, J.1; Berman, S.3; Dooley,E.2; Frelih-Larsen, A.2; Kretschmer, B.1; Maxted, N.5;
McConville, A.J.1; Naumann, S.2; Sarteel, M.3; Tostivint, C.3; Tucker, G.M.1; van der Grijp, N.M.4 (2013)
Technology options for feeding 10 billion people. Climate change and agriculture; biodiversity and agriculture.
Report prepared for the STOA Panel of the European Parliament. Contract IP/A/STOA/FWC/2008-
096/LOT3/C1/SC5. Institute for European Environmental Policy, BIO Intelligence Service, Ecologic Institute,
IVM, Brussels/London
1 Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), 2 Ecologic Institute, 3 BIO Intelligence Service,
4 Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, 5 School of Biosciences, University of
Birmingham
Acknowledgements:
Harry Aiking and Thijs Etty at IVM for their reviews

Shailendra Mudgal at BIO for his review and contributions

David Baldock, Kaley Hart, Allan Buckwell, Ben Allen, Henrietta Menadue and Sara Green at IEEP for their

reviews and contributions

Geoffrey Radley (independent consultant) and Les Firbank (University of Leeds) for their reviews and

contributions

The Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) is an independent not-for-profit institute.

IEEP undertakes work for external sponsors in a range of policy areas. We also have our own research

programmes and produce the Manual of European Environmental Policy

(http://www.europeanenvironmentalpolicy.eu).

For further information about IEEP, see our website at http://www.ieep.eu or contact any staff member.

London Office
15 Queen Anne's Gate
London, SW1H 9BU
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7799 2244
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Tel: +32 (0) 2738 7482
Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture
TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS........................................................................................................................................3

GLOSSARY..........................................................................................................................................5

INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................18

A. Objectives of the study........................................................................................................18

B. Setting the context: future demands on agricultural land – trends and drivers ........19

PART 1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE...............................................................22

1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EU AGRICULTURE.........................................23

1.1 Changes in crop growth and agricultural productivity.................................................23

1.2 Changes in water availability ............................................................................................24

1.3 Changes in flooding ............................................................................................................26

1.4 Changes in soil characteristics ...........................................................................................27

1.5 Pest/pathogen risk..............................................................................................................27

1.6 Fire risk .................................................................................................................................28

1.7 Energy supply ......................................................................................................................29

2 IMPACTS OF EU AGRICULTURE ON CLIMATE ............................................................30

2.1 Greenhouses gases and their sources and trends ...........................................................31

2.2 Sequestration in soils and vegetation ...............................................................................33

2.3 Mitigation potential of EU agriculture .............................................................................35

2.4 Other aspects of the European food chain .......................................................................35

3 MANAGEMENT ACTIONS FOR MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION IN EU

AGRICULTURE AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO INCREASED FOOD PRODUCTION

.......................................................................................................................................................37

3.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................37

3.2 Key management actions for climate change mitigation and adaptation and their

relationships to increased food production................................................................................39

3.3 Productivity issues ..............................................................................................................50

3.4 Costs......................................................................................................................................51

3.5 Enabling mechanisms and policy measures....................................................................52

4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE: RECOMMENDED OPTIONS ..............56

PART 2: BIODIVERSITY AND AGRICULTURE ......................................................................60

5 THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ON BIODIVERSITY AND OF

BIODIVERSITY ON AGRICULTURE IN THE EU....................................................................61

5.1 Biodiversity in EU agricultural ecosystems.....................................................................61

5.2 Abandonment of agricultural management on semi-natural habitats in the EU.......65

5.3 The impacts of farming practices on biodiversity in Europe ........................................65

5.4 Impacts of agricultural practices on biodiversity outside agriculture in the EU .......71

5.5 The impacts of agricultural production on biodiversity outside the EU.....................72

5.6 Why biodiversity losses in agricultural systems matter ................................................72

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STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment
5.7 Maintaining and increasing biodiversity in agricultural systems to 2050...................77

5.8 What is needed to maintain and increase biodiversity in agricultural systems? .......80

6 CULTIVATION OF GM CROPS IN THE EU: WHAT IMPACTS ON

BIODIVERSITY?...............................................................................................................................85

6.1 Genetically Modified Organisms ......................................................................................85

6.2 GM crops grown in the EU or that could be grown in the EU in the coming decades .

................................................................................................................................................86

6.3 How GM breeding differs from conventionally bred plants and animals..................87

6.4 Possible impacts of GM crops on biodiversity and current evidence for effects........88

6.5 What is the evidence for effects of GM crops on biodiversity in Europe? ..................98

7 IMPACTS OF BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS ON BIODIVERSITY......................................100

7.1 Biofuel technologies ..........................................................................................................100

7.2 Current production and projections of future biofuel consumption .........................101

7.3 Biodiversity impacts of current and projected biofuel consumption.........................106

7.4 Competition for agricultural land and influence on food prices................................108

7.5 Effectiveness of biodiversity and social sustainability criteria in the EU RED.........109

7.6 What are the consequences of biofuel feedstocks for biodiversity?...........................111

8 CONSERVATION OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES FOR FOOD AND

AGRICULTURE IN THE EU ........................................................................................................112

8.1 Plant genetic resources for food and agriculture ..........................................................112

8.2 International and European policy targets for plant genetic resources.....................113

8.3 European initiatives for the conservation and use of plant genetic resources .........115

8.4 Challenges and opportunities from the European perspective ..................................118

8.5 Options for the EU for the conservation and use of plant genetic resources............121

9 THE IMPACTS OF BEE DECLINE ON BIODIVERSITY AND POLLINATION IN

THE EU .............................................................................................................................................123

9.1 The importance of pollinators..........................................................................................123

9.2 Pollinator decline in Europe.............................................................................................123

9.3 European beekeeping........................................................................................................124

9.4 The factors affecting bee/pollinator populations in the EU........................................124

9.5 The impact of bee/pollinator declines on crop production in the EU.......................129

9.6 Actions to address each of these factors and maintain pollination services .............130

9.7 What is needed to reverse pollinator decline in Europe? ............................................133

10 THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE,

AND AGRICULTURE AND BIODIVERSITY: RECOMMENDED OPTIONS .................135

REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................140

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Interactions between climate change & agriculture and between biodiversity & agriculture
ACRONYMS

AES agri-environment scheme
ANC Area of Natural Constraint (previously Less Favoured Area or Natural Handicap)
CAP Common Agricultural Policy
CBD UN Convention on Biological Diversity
CLC CORINE Land Cover
CMEF Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
DMP Drought Management Plan
DNA deoxyribonucleic acid (genetic material)
EAFRD European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development
EFA Ecological Focus Area (part of CAP reform greening proposal)
EFSA European Food Safety Authority
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
EIP European Innovation Partnership
ETC/BD European Topic Centre on Biodiversity
ETS Emissions Trading System
FADN Farm Accountancy Data Network
FAS Farm Advisory Service
FP5, FP6, EU Framework Programme for Research (FP5 1998-2002; FP6 2002-2006; FP7 2007-2013)
FP7
GAEC Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition
GHG Greenhouse gas (see glossary)
GMO Genetically Modified Organism (see glossary)
GMHT Genetically modified herbicide tolerant crop (see glossary)
GM Bt Genetically modified insect resistant crop containing Bt gene (see glossary)
HNV High Nature Value (farming areas and systems)
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STOA -Science and Technology Options Assessment
iLUC indirect land use change
IPCC International Panel on Climate Change
IPM integrated Pest Management (see glossary)
IWM Integrated Weed Management (see glossary)
LULUCF Land use, land use change, and forestry (in relation to greenhouse gas emissions
accounting)
NREAP National Renewable Energy Action Plan
PES Payment for Ecosystem Services
PGRFA plant genetic resources for food and agriculture
RNA ribonucleic acid (genetic material)
SOC Soil organic carbon (see glossary)
SOM Soil organic matter (see glossary)
UAA Utilized Agricultural Area
4