Table Of ContentCOMMUNICATIONS IN CYBERNETICS, COMMUNICATIONS IN CYBERNETICS,
SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
- PROCEEDINGS - PROCEEDINGS
Editors
Huang
Kahraman
In this present internet age, risk analysis and crisis response based on information will make
up a digital world full of possibilities and improvements to people’s daily life and capabilities.
These services will be supported by more intelligent systems and more effective decision-
making. This book contains all the papers presented at the 4th International Conference f I
o n
on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, August 27-29, 2013, Istanbul, Turkey. The theme was
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intelligent systems and decision making for risk analysis and crisis response. R e
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The risk issues in the papers cluster around the following topics: natural disasters, finance e
A n
risks, food and feed safety, catastrophic accidents, critical infrastructure, global climate
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change, project management, supply chains, public health, threats to social safety, energy a S
and environment. ly ys
s t
i e
s
This volume will be of interest to all professionals and academics in the field of risk analysis, m
a
crisis response, intelligent systems and decision-making, as well as related fields of enquiry. n s
d a
n
C
ABOUT THE BOOK SERIES r d
Communications in Cybernetics, Systems Science and Engineering - Proceedings (CCSSEP) is D
is a cross-disciplinary proceedings series devoted to theoretical and applied research is e Editors:
c
contributions, that cater to a rapidly growing worldwide interest in a cybernetic and Re is Chongfu Huang
systemic methodology. The series aims to publish conference proceedings that present the s io
latest developments within the field and strategies required for better implementation of p n Cengiz Kahraman
o
advances, with a view to environmental protection and sustainable social and economic n M
development. The CCSSEP series targets all working in theoretical and applied fields of se a
cybernetics, systems science and engineering, e.g. academics, researchers and consultants, k Intelligent Systems and Decision Making
i
computer and information scientists, development and systems engineers, mathematicians, n
g
management cyberneticists and systemists, medical scientists, and intelligent and for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response
manufacturing engineers in industry, as well as leading decision- and policy-makers.
SERIES EDITOR: JEFFREY ‘YI-LIN’ FORREST
an informa business
INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND DECISION MAKING FOR RISK ANALYSIS
AND CRISIS RESPONSE
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Communications in Cybernetics, Systems Science and
Engineering – Proceedings
ISSN: 2325-3436
Series Editor:
Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest
International Institute for General Systems Studies, Grove City, USA
Slippery Rock University, Slippery Rock, USA
HHUUAANNGG0000__BBooookk..iinnddbb iiii 77//33//22001133 99::5522::5511 AAMM
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 4TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RISK ANALYSIS AND
CRISIS RESPONSE, ISTANBUL, TURKEY, 27–29 AUGUST 2013
Intelligent Systems and Decision
Making for Risk Analysis and
Crisis Response
Editors
Chongfu Huang
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University,
Beijing, China
Cengiz Kahraman
Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
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CRC Press/Balkema is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK
Typeset by V Publishing Solutions Pvt Ltd., Chennai, India
Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY
All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, elec-
tronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written prior permis-
sion from the publisher.
Although all care is taken to ensure integrity and the quality of this publication and the
information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers nor the author for any
damage to the property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or
the information contained herein.
Published by: CRC Press/Balkema
P.O. Box 11320, 2301 EH Leiden, The Netherlands
e-mail: [email protected]
www.crcpress.com – www.taylorandfrancis.com
ISBN: 978-1-138-00019-3 (Hbk)
ISBN: 978-0-203-77147-1 (eBook)
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Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response –
Huang & Kahraman (eds)
© 2013 Taylor & Francis Group, London, ISBN 978-1-138-00019-3
Table of contents
Organization xiii
Foreword xv
The measurement of effective knowledge in multiple Internet of intelligences
and application in risk assessment 1
C. Huang
Risk evaluation modeling and revenue impact analysis for multi-tiered supply chains 9
J. Fogal
Humanitarian logistics and information management for natural disaster response 15
J. Montero & B. Vitoriano
Seismic risk assessment of the Constantine city, Algeria 23
B. Sbartai & M. Hamidatou
Assessment of the liquefaction risk of soil under seismic solicitations 29
B. Sbartai & F. Kamel
Poultry purchase in response to avian influenza in Vietnam: A qualitative exploration 35
Q. Liao, W.W.T. Lam, R. Fielding, T.H. Bich & V.T. Dang
A system of systems approach in responding to events and addressing public health needs 43
E. Akdogan, Y. Peres & A. Yaeli
Fire accident chain evolution and control of Beijing transportation hub 49
P. Sun, W. Zhu, Y. Ma, R. Song, S. He & K. Liu
Study on multi-attribute group decision-making model of construction diversion risk 59
Z. Chen
A risk eliminating coordination method for emergency large group decision making 67
X. Xu, Y. Xia & M. Wang
The research of quantification of building fire losses base on FDS software 75
Y. Tian
A fuzzy MCDA framework for safety assessment in the remediation of a uranium
mill tailings site in Ukraine 81
A. Jiménez, M.C. Martín, A. Mateos, D. Pérez-Sánchez & A. Dvorzhak
Study on flammability ranking of dominant herb communities in Songnen
grassland, China 89
Y. Bao, J. Zhang, X. Liu, Q. Zhang, Y. Wang, L. Shen & T. Zou
A study on risk early warning of crops caused by floods in Northeast China based
on vulnerability 97
S. Zhao & Q. Zhang
v
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Scenario-based risk assessment and zonation of paddy caused by flood in
Huai River sub-basin of China 107
S. Zhao, Q. Zhang & C. Huang
Application of capacity spectrum for Wenchuan earthquake damage risk analysis:
The Dujiangyan study 117
J. Yang, M. Liu & S. Jiang
Design and implementation of crop risk assessment and zoning system 127
Z. Song, Q. Zhang & K. Wang
Predicting agricultural drought disaster loss based on SPI and ANN in
Shandong, China 135
X. Liu, J. Zhang, W. Cai & D. Yan
Applications of health risk classification method in pre-evaluations of occupational
disease hazards in construction projects in China 141
D. Huang, M. Liu & M. Li
Design fire risk assessment index system of large public buildings in China 149
Z. Chen, Y. Xie, J. Wang & L. Zou
The risk analysis of fuzzy inversion neural network and crime dark number space 155
K. Zou, X. Li & X. Xue
Comparing the performance of different artificial intelligence based clustering
algorithms in healthcare waste disposal location 161
Z. Gergin & Ş. Esnaf
A survey of fuzzy risk analysis 169
J. Guo & F. Ai
Minimizing environmental risks using fuzzy TOPSIS: Location selection for ITU
faculty of management 179
A. Suder & C. Kahraman
A fuzzy assessment model for river ecological vulnerability: A case study in Yangtze
river basin 187
Y. Wang, D. Wang & J. Wu
Using game theory for SAR response after devastating earthquakes and tsunamis 193
C.K. Wu
Assessing flood disaster risk of urban residential building based on inundated depth 201
J. Zhang, X. Liu, Z. Tong, Y. Zhang & Y. Wang
A method for extracting and integrating scattered information in internet of
intelligences and an application in risk analysis of natural disaster 207
F. Ai, J. Guo, C. Huang, F. Zeng & T. Wu
Uncertainty evaluation of groundwater modeling based on multimodel method 217
X. Zeng, D. Wang, J. Wu, X. Zhu & L. Wang
An interactive method of fuzzy probability elicitation in risk analysis 223
E. Vicente, A. Jiménez & A. Mateos
An ANFIS model for forecasting risk by Overall Equipment Effectiveness parameter
in Total Productive Maintenance 229
E.T. Bekar, M. Cakmakci & C. Kahraman
A robust hub location model for disaster response via stochastic programming 237
Z. Chen, X. Tan & X. Guan
vi
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Comprehensive risk science education program for undergraduate students; a case in
Chiba Institute of Technology 243
K. Shibata, T. Koshiyama, A. Takagi & A. Yamazaki
Research on evaluation questionnaire of safety climate for safe communities 249
R. Tong, X. Liu, P. Gao & B. Du
Research on early warning to safety assurance of subway based on mutation theory 255
Y. Xu, Y. Xie, Y. Ge & B. Song
Safety—a neglected issue when introducing solid biomass fuel in thermal power plants?
Some evidence of an emerging risk 263
F.H. Hedlund & J. Astad
Application of PLR classification guide for accidental potential in
Beijing LPG storage and distribution station 269
Q. You, J. Fan, W. Zhu & Y. Bai
Broadband statistical Green’s functions based on observed data by strong motion
networks and its application to Tonankai earthquake 277
Narenmandula, Baoyintu, H. Kawase, Mantegeer, Buren & Y. Bao
Reducing urban disaster risk by improving resilience in China 285
G. Zhai, S. Li & J. Chen
Upside potential versus downside risk in Chinese agriculture under climate change 291
Z. Tian, Z. Liang, H. Zhong, H. Qiu, L. Sun, G. Fischer, H. van Velthuizen,
G. Cao & S. Zhao
Monitoring of drought disaster in Xilin Guole grassland using TVDI model 299
Y. Bao, G. Gama, B. Gang, Yongmei, Alatengtuya, Yinshan & Husiletu
Credit risk evaluation of the credit card by grey data mining based on AHP-GRAP 305
S. Li, Y. Shi, Z. Zhong, G. Zhu & B. Ai
Operation mechanism and interfered information’s screening strategy of internet
of intelligence 313
F. Zeng, C. Huang & F. Ai
Research about the acceptance level of risks based on multi-agent system 319
C. Fan, G. Zhai, J. Chen, S. Li & L. Ding
A risk assessment method based on RBF artificial neural network—cloud model for
urban water hazard 327
D. Liu & D. Wang
An accelerated particle swarm optimization training algorithm for RBF neural network
in river stage forecasting in typical Karst area, South China 335
Z. Cao, D. Wang, L. Wang & Y. Shi
Study on typhoon catastrophe risk assessment model framework 341
J. Zhang & C. Huang
Multilevel risk assessment of weather disaster 349
S. Guo
Do varying patterns with the same trend exist between temperature warming and
climate-related natural disasters in China? 355
B. Fan, N. Li & L. Guo
Risk assessment of drought catastrophe for grain production at the provincial scale in China 363
L. Xu, Q. Zhang, S. Zhao, K. Wang, Z. Li, F. Kong & X. Dong
vii
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Forecasting oil consumption of Turkey using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference
System (ANFIS) 375
O. Senvar, G. Ulutagay & E.T. Bekar
Research on natural disaster risk management model in Huangshan scenic area 383
S. Hu, H. Zhu & J. Zhang
A justification of investment into railway risks: Use of ALARP criteria in combination
with life quality index 389
Q. Mahboob, E. Schöne, U. Maschek & J. Trinckauf
Study on grassland fires disaster emergency spatial decision support system based
on case-base 397
Z. Tong, J. Zhang, X. Luo, Y. Bao & X. Liu
The design of helmet-type multi-source information acquisition and processing
platform in search and rescue missions 405
W. Hu, H. Shang, L. Zhao, T. Zhang, G. Shi, J. Wang & L. Xuan
Comparison of risk acceptability on NIMBY facility between Chinese and Japanese
college students 413
Y. Wu, G. Zhai, S. Li & C. Ren
Study on the statistical method of direct economic losses from work safety accidents 419
N. Deng
The safety efficiency of an overhead lines undergrounding of cities cabling project 427
Y. Wang, F. Yao & K. Liu
Risk of investing in US industries after global financial crisis 435
H. Sencal & M. Orhan
Does air temperature really affect road traffic accidents?—evidences from China 441
S. Li, G. Zhai, C. Ren & Y. Wu
Preliminary study on text-to-scene implementation for emergency response plan 449
F. Yang & W. Li
How is risk perception influenced by perceptive approaches in a multi-risk context? 455
F. Yao, G. Zhai, C. Ren & Z. He
Heavy metals in PanaxNotoginseng and the implications for human health risk 461
M. Zhu, Y. Jiang, B. Cui, Y. Jiang, H. Cao & W. Zhang
The study of grassland fire loss assessment method based on remote sensing
technology in inner Mongolia 469
Y. Chang, D. Bao, G. Liu, W. Wu & N. Ao
Quantitative evaluation of drought-flood abrupt alternation during the flood season
in Fuyang, China 477
Z. Sun, J. Zhang, X. Liu, Z. Tong, D. Yan & C. Wang
A study on city infrastructure management-looking from the Beijing rainstorm on
July 21, 2012 483
K. Liu, W. Zhu & Y. Wang
Drought risk analysis of multi hazard-bearing body based on copula function in
Huai river basin 487
Y. Hu, J. Zhang, X. Liu, Z. Tong, Z. Sun, D. Yan & C. Wang
The risk analysis of Daqingshan National Nature Reserve of drought disaster 493
C. Li, Y. Bao, W. Zhang & S. Yin
viii
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In recent 52 years the risk change analysis of Daqingshan National Nature Reserve
of drought disaster 499
C. Li, Y. Bao, W. Zhang & S. Yin
Minimizing the risk factors in a pharmaceutical supply chain by using goal programming 505
B. Özkan, İ. Kaya & H. Başlıgil
The risk analysis of wind energy investments in Turkey 511
S.C. Onar & T.N. Kılavuz
Comparative study on Beijing residents’ risk perception on incidents of
pandemic influenza, subway terrorist scenario and torrential rain 519
M. Fang, H. Chen & Z. Wei
Climate change risks on human health and environment: Recent situation in Turkey 527
A. Suder
A critical study of tanker oil spills: Going further than statistics 533
N.P. Ventikos
A new resolution technique to solve a hybrid flowshop scheduling problem in
a crisis environment 541
H. Chehade, F. Yalaoui, L. Amodeo & X. Li
Risk evaluation of personal credit based on attribute comprehensive coordinate method 549
G. Xu, N. Liu & J. Feng
Vegetable market risk measurement and evaluation based on VaR method—a case study
of a vegetable wholesale market in Beijing 553
C. Wang, S. Zhao, A. Zhao & Y. Zhao
The integrated measurement of carbon finance market risk based on Copula model 561
C. Zhang, Y. Yang & T. Zhang
Risk evaluation for ARCH-GARCH vs. RBF NN forecasting and SVR models:
Application to high-frequency time series 567
D. Marcek
The study of grassland fire monitoring based on DMSP/OLS night-time imagery 575
WuYunDeJi, Y. Bao, H. Bao, Yinshan & B. Gang
Empirical analysis of Shenzhen stock market volatility risks after cancelling the
ban on large-sized non-tradable shares based on GARCH-type models 581
H. Yan & M. Yu
Sub-pixel fractional area of grassland fire observations based on multi-source
satellite data 587
D. Bao, Y. Chang & G. Liu
An improved image steganalysis using a novel feature selection algorithm based on
artificial bee colony 593
F.G. Mohammadi & M.S. Abadeh
A decision making approach for post-disaster multi-criteria facility location-
assignment problem 599
C. Sol & K. Kılıç
Prediction of firm’s financial crash-evidence from the factor analysis model 607
N. Benhayoun, I. Chairi, A.E. Gonnouni, M. Tanana & A. Lyhyaoui
A semantic composition of ebXML business processes 617
H. Ouassila & Z. Boufaida
ix
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