Table Of ContentINNOV ATION PATTERNS IN CRISIS AND
PROSPERITY
Innovation Patterns in
Crisis and Prosperity
Schumpeter's Long Cycle Reconsidered
Alfred Kleinknecht
Senior Fellow. Foundation/or Economic Research (SEO).
University 0/ Amsterdam
Forewordby
Jan Tinbergen
M
MACMILLAN
© Alfred Kleinknecht 1987
Foreword © Tbe Macmillan Press Ltd 1987
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First edition 1987
Reprinted 1990
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Kleinknecht, Alfred
Innovation patterns in crisis and
prosperity: Schumpeter's long cycle
reconsidered
1. Long waves (Economics)
I. Title
330.15'42 HB3729
ISBN 978-0-333-40745-5 (hardcover)
ISBN 978-0-333-51191-6 ISBN 978-1-349-11175-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-11175-6
To Hanneke
Contents
List 01 Illustrations Xl
List 01 Tables xiii
Foreword by Jan Tinbergen Xv
Acknowledgements xvii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Origin and Renaissance of the Long Wave 1
1.2 Some Early Hints of Long Waves 2
1.3 The Pioneering Work of van Gelderen 3
1.3.1 The main issues 3
1.3.2 The leading sector approach 4
1.3.3 Periodic over- and under-investment of capital 5
1.3.4 Credit expansion and financial instability 5
1.3.5 Scarcity and abundance of basic materials 6
1.3.6 New territories and migration waves 7
1.3.7 Gold production 7
1.3.8 Concluding remarks 7
1.4 The Kuznets-Schumpeter Controversy 8
1.5 Structure of the Present Investigation 12
PART I TUE LONG WAVE: AREAL PUENOMENON?
2 Testing Long Waves 17
2.1 Recent Tests on Long Waves 17
2.2 A New Test on Long Waves 19
2.2.1 The test method 19
2.2.2 Selection of a long wave chronology 23
2.3 Interpreting the Outcomes 26
2.3.1 Remarks on the interpretation of the tables 26
2.3.2 Results 30
2.4 Concluding Comments 32
Appendix A2: Details About Testing Long Waves 34
VB
viii Contents
PART 11 LONG WAVES IN RADICAL INNOVATIONS?
Introductory Remarks 53
3 Basic Innovations, Radically New Products, Major Innovations:
An Assessment of Recent Research 57
3.1 Clusters of Basic Innovations? 57
3.2 Clusters of Radically New Products? 63
3.3 Summarizing the Available Data 67
3.4 Major Innovations From the Sussex Data Bank 72
4 Key and Master Patents in the Long Run: Evidence From
Baker's Data 77
4.1 Origin and Nature of Baker's Data 77
4.2 Classifying and Arranging Baker's Data 80
4.3 Interpretation of Results 86
Appendix A4: Details About Baker's Data 95
5 R & D, Patenting and New Research Laboratories in a Long
Wave Conten 109
6 Putting Things Together 115
PART III INNOVATION AND GROWTU PATTERNS
IN TUE POSTWAR UPSWING
Introductory Remarks 127
7 A Shift From Product to Process Innovation During the
Postwar Upswing? 129
7.1 Summary of A vailable Evidence 129
7.2 Product and Process Innovations in the Gellman
Sampie 133
7.2.1 Origin of the sampie 133
7.2.2 Classification principles 133
7.2.3 Results from the 'sector-of-origin' approach 136
7.2.4 Results of the refined classification scheme 138
7.3 Conclusions 142
Appendix A7: Detailed Data for Chapter 7 147
Contents ix
8 Radical Innovations, FoUow-through Innovations and
Growth: the Example of West German Industry 159
8.1 Cross-section Indicator of Innovativeness for the
Postwar Period 159
8.2 The 'Follow-through' Hypothesis 161
8.3 Innovation and Growth: A Cross-section Test for West
German Manufacturing Industry (1951-77) 165
Appendix A8: Detailed Tables for Chapter 8 169
9 Patenting, Investment and Employment: A Cross-section
Test for Dutch Manufacturing Industry 175
9.1 Patents as an Innovation Indicator 175
9.2 Construction of the Patenting Indicator 177
9.3 Comparing the Various Indicators 180
9.4 Sectoral Innovation Intensities and Growth Performance 182
Appendix A9: Detailed Tables for Chapter 9 188
10 Summary and Conclusions 197
10.1 Recapitulation of Principal Results 197
10.2 Some Tentative Conclusions 206
Notes and References 215
Bibliography 221
Index 230
List of Illustrations
A2.1 World industrial production: 1 38
A2.2 World industrial production: 2 39
A2.3 Manufacturing production of Belgium 40
A2.4 Net national product of Germany 41
A2.5 Industrial production of France 42
A2.6 Net domestic product of France 43
A2.7 Gross domestic product of Sweden 44
A2.8 Gross domestic product of Italy 45
A2.9 Gross national product of USA 46
A2.10 Gross domestic product of UK 47
A2.11 Manufacturing production of UK 48
3.1 Basic innovations in lO-year periods (Mensch, 1975) 58
3.2 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions
during first half of 19th century (Mensch, 1975) 58
3.3 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions
during second half of 19th century
(electrotechnical innovations) (Mensch, 1975) 59
3.4 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions
during second half of 19th century (Chemical
Innovations) (Mensch, 1975) 59
3.5 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions
during first half of 20th century (Mensch, 1975) 60
3.6 'Radical innovations' in British Industry (1920-80) 75
4.1 Baker's significant patents (Clark et a/., 1981a) 79
4.2 Product-related patents (all except first and last) 87
4.3 Process-related patents (all except first and last) 88
4.4 Product-related patents (all except last) 89
4.5 Process-related patents (all except last) 90
4.6 Product-related patents (all) 91
4.7 Process-related patents (all) 92
A4.1 Product-related patents (first patents only) 96
A4.2 Process-related patents (first patents only) 97
A4.3 Product-related patents (last patents only) 98
A4.4 Process-related patents (last patents only) 99
5.1 US patenting (1840-1980) 110
7.1 Product-and Process-related patents 131
XI
xii List 0/ Illustrations
7.2 Productlprocess classification
scheme (Coombs/Kleinknecht, 1983) 134
7.3a Annual percentile shares of innovations from
investment goods industries 137
7.3b Annual percentile shares of innovations from
consumer goods industries 137
7.4a Annual percentile shares of innovations from
eight innovative growth industries 140
7.4b Annual percentile shares of innovations from 22
traditional industries 140
7.5a Annual percentile shares of process innovations
within eight innovative growth industries
('wide definition') 144
7.5b Annual percentile shares of product innovations
within eight innovative growth industries
('wide definition') 144
7.6a Annual percentile shares of process innovations
within eight innovative growth industries
('extended definition') 145
7.6b Annual percentile shares of product innovations
within eight innovative growth industries
('extended definition') 145
A7.1 Product-and process-related patents 148
A7.2 Product-and process-related patents 149
A7.3 Product-and process-related patents 150
9.1 Annual labour and investment inputs in Dutch
manufacturing industry 186
