Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change

276 Pages·2007·10.06 MB·English

by  America's Climate Choices: Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change

Informing an Effective
Response
to Climate Change
America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to
Climate Change
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Division on Earth and Life Studies
This prepublication version of Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change has been
provided to the public to facilitate timely access to the report. Although the substance of the
report is final, editorial changes may be made throughout the text and citations will be checked
prior to publication. The final report will be available through the National Academies Press by
autumn 2010.
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Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
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Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
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This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
under contract number DG133R08CQ0062. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or
recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not
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Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html

PANEL ON INFORMING EFFECTIVE DECISIONS AND ACTIONS RELATED
TO CLIMATE CHANGE

DIANA LIVERMAN (Co-Chair), University of Arizona, Tucson and Oxford
University, U.K.
PETER RAVEN (Co-Chair), Missouri Botanical Garden, Saint Louis
DANIEL BARSTOW, Challenger Center for Space Science Education, Alexandria,
Virginia
ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DANIEL W. BROMLEY, University of Wisconsin-Madison
ANTHONY LEISEROWITZ, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
ROBERT J. LEMPERT, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
JIM LOPEZ*, Department of Housing and Urban Development
EDWARD L. MILES, University of Washington, Seattle
BERRIEN MOORE, III, Climate Central, Princeton, New Jersey
MARK D. NEWTON, Dell, Inc., Round Rock, Texas
VENKATACHALAM RAMASWAMY, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,
Princeton, New Jersey
RICHARD RICHELS, Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., Washington, D.C.
DOUGLAS P. SCOTT, Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, Springfield
KATHLEEN J. TIERNEY, University of Colorado at Boulder
CHRIS WALKER, The Carbon Trust LLC, New York, New York
SHARI T. WILSON, Maryland Department of the Environment, Baltimore

NRC Staff:

MARTHA MCCONNELL, Study Director
LAUREN M. BROWN, Research Associate
RICARDO PAYNE, Program Assistant
DAVID REIDMILLER, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Fellow

*Asterisks denote members who resigned during the study process to take policy-making
positions in the federal government.

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12784.html

Foreword

America’s Climate Choices

Convened by the National Research Council in response to a request from Congress
(Public Law 110-161), America’s Climate Choices is a suite of five coordinated activities
designed to study the serious and sweeping issues associated with global climate change,
including the science and technology challenges involved, and provide advice on the most
effective steps and most promising strategies that can be taken to respond.
The Committee on America’s Climate Choices is responsible for providing overall
direction, coordination, and integration of the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities and
ensuring that these activities provide well-supported, action-oriented, and useful advice to the
nation. The Committee convened a Summit on America’s Climate Choices on March 30-31,
2009 to help frame the study, provide an opportunity for high-level participation and input on
key issues, and hear about relevant work carried out by others. The Committee is also charged
with writing a final report that builds on four panel reports and other sources to answer the
following four overarching questions:

 What short-term actions can be taken to respond effectively to climate change?
 What promising long-term strategies, investments, and opportunities could be pursued to
respond to climate change?
 What are the major scientific and technological advances needed to better understand and
respond to climate change?
 What are the major impediments (e.g., practical, institutional, economic, ethical,
intergenerational, etc.) to responding effectively to climate change, and what can be done
to overcome these impediments?

The Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change was charged to describe,
analyze, and assess strategies for reducing the net future human influence on climate, including
both technology and policy options. The panel’s report focuses on actions to reduce domestic
greenhouse gas emissions and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land
use, but also considers the international dimensions of limiting climate change.
The Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change was charged to describe,
analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability; increase adaptive capacity;
improve resiliency; and promote successful adaptation to climate change in different regions,
sectors, systems, and populations. The panel’s report draws on a wide range of sources and case
studies to identify lessons learned from past experiences, promising current approaches, and
potential new directions.
The Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was charged to provide a concise
overview of past, present, and future climate change, including its causes and its impacts, then
recommend steps to advance our current understanding, including new observations, research
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viii INFORMING AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
programs, next-generation models, and the physical and human assets needed to support these
and other activities. The panel’s report focuses on the scientific advances needed both to improve
our understanding of the intergrated human-climate system and to devise more effective
responses to climate change.
The Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change was
charged to describe and assess different activities, products, strategies, and tools for informing
decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and execute effective, integrated
responses. The panel’s report describes the different types of climate change-related decisions
and actions being taken at various levels and in different sectors and regions; and it develops a
framework, tools, and practical advice for ensuring that the best available technical knowledge
about climate change is used to inform these decisions and actions.
America’s Climate Choices builds on an extensive foundation of previous and ongoing
work, including current and past National Research Council reports, assessments from other
national and international organizations, the current scientific literature, climate action plans by
various entities, and other sources. More than a dozen boards and standing committees of the
National Research Council were involved in developing and organizing the study, and many
additional groups and individuals provided additional input during the study process. Outside
viewpoints and perspectives were also obtained via public events and workshops (including the
Summit), invited presentations at committee and panel meetings, and comments and questions
received through the study website (http://americasclimatechoices.org).
Collectively, the America’s Climate Choices suite of activities involve more than 90
volunteers from a range of communities including academia, various levels of government,
business and industry, other nongovernmental organizations, and the international community.
Study participants were charged to write consensus reports that provide broad, action-oriented,
and authoritative analyses to inform and guide responses to climate change across the nation.
Responsibility for the final content of each report rests solely with the authoring panel and the
National Research Council. However, the development of each report included input from and
interactions with members of all five study groups; the membership of each group is listed in
Appendix E.
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Preface

How can America make more informed decisions about climate change? This was the
question asked of the Panel on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate
Change. We were challenged to identify the opportunities and challenges associated with
informing effective decision and actions, including the different activities, products, strategies,
and tools for informing decision makers about climate change and helping them plan and execute
effective, integrated responses. We were asked to describe the different types of climate change-
related decisions and actions being taken at various levels and in different sectors and regions,
and review frameworks and tools for ensuring that the best available technical knowledge about
climate change is used to inform these decisions and actions.
Our first challenge was to decide how to set the limits of our panel report given the broad
statement of task, the limited time, and the potential for overlap with the work of the three other
America’s Climate Choices panels. We also took into account input received during the public
discussion of the study, especially suggestions about the significance of looking at decision
makers beyond the Federal government and about the importance of communication and
education. We soon recognized that an informed and effective national response to climate
change requires that the widest possible range of decisions makers, public and private, national
and local, have access to up to date and reliable information about current and future climate
change, the impacts of such changes, the vulnerability to these changes, and the response
strategies for reducing emissions and implementing adaptation. We also acknowledged the
importance of information that is needed to assess whether the decisions or responses are
successful or should be revised.
We began our work with reflections about America’s ability to face grand and complex
challenges in the past, where a record of success and learning from experience provided us with
an optimistic start to thinking about informing climate choices. We then examined the decisions
and actions that have already been taken in relation to climate, who was making the decisions,
and what tools and information they were using or lacking. Responding to our task statement we
then turned to an assessment of frameworks and tools for making climate related decisions and
identified two key types of information services that are needed in making decisions about
climate change (1) information about climate, climate impacts and adaptation, and (2)
information about greenhouse gas emissions and their management. We recognized that
America needs good international information for effective decisions and can play an important
role in maintaining international observational and research activities. Finally we decided to
assess what is known about public understanding of climate and the ways in which climate
knowledge is communicated and incorporated in formal and informal education systems. We
tried as much as possible to maintain a ‘user’ perspective – is the right information available and
accessible for the different types of decisions that people are making? Where is there potential
for confusion? How can information services be designed so as to allow monitoring and
assessment of climate and climate policy so that we can understand what is happening, evaluate
the effectiveness of policies, and make adjustments to increase the effectiveness of decisions?
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We were fortunate that our panel included representatives from many different groups,
including federal, state and local government, universities, the private sector, physical and social
scientists, and several individuals who have long experience of decision making about climate in
a variety of different roles, including international and non governmental organizations. We
believe that this diverse panel reflects the range of actors involved in decision making about
climate, but we also invited several people to meet with the panel to share their insights and
answer our questions. We are grateful to these speakers – Eric Barron, Mary Nicholls, Ted
Nordhaus, Jeff Seabright, Alex Perera, Amanda Staudt, Mark Way, Andrew Castaldi, Michael
Liffmann, Brad Udall, Louie Tupas, and Chet Koblinsky. We also relied on a number of
previous NRC reports that focused on decision making about climate and many of our findings
and recommendations echo, reemphasize, and build on those of previous panels and committees.
Several members of other panels and the main committee were helpful in defining areas of
overlap and providing information in their areas of expertise, especially Kathy Jacobs, Jim
Geringer, and Tom Karl. We are especially grateful to Adam Bumpus for his assistance with
Chapters 2 and 6.
The study was conducted during a period when climate issues and climate policy were
being debated and developed at all levels of government, and our time frame for the report
included pivotal negotiations at the international level in Copenhagen, several climate related
bills in Congress, proposals for new approaches to climate services in Federal agencies, state
actions to limit emissions and set up greenhouse gas trading, swings in public support for climate
policy, and some major private sector actors moving to incorporate climate risks into their
investments and decisions. This posed challenges for the panel, as it sometimes seemed as
though the world was racing ahead of our cautious deliberations. This is one reason why we
have avoided, for the most part, focusing on specific recommendations, and have chosen to
emphasize the frameworks, information, and criteria that can be used to inform and evaluate
decisions, whatever those decisions may be.
We extend our gratitude to the staff at the National Research Council. We are especially
grateful to our study director, Martha McConnell, who was able to maintain a positive attitude
and enthusiasm in spite of our time limitations, the challenges in bounding our task and in
liaising with other panels, and coordinating a large committee of talented but very busy
members. Martha was assisted in all aspects of her work by Lauren Brown. David Reidmiller,
Joe Casola, Paul Stern, and Michael Craghan also assisted at times during the study process. We
also want to acknowledge the BASC board director, Chris Elfring, who engaged often with our
panel to provide advice and coordination with other panels.

Diana Liverman (Co-Chair)
Peter Raven (Co-Chair)

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