Inequality, grievances, and civil war

273 Pages·2013·2.703 MB·English

by  Lars-Erik Cederman, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Halvard Buhaug

Inequality,Grievances,andCivilWar
This book argues that political and economic inequalities following group
linesgenerategrievancesthatcanmotivatecivilwar.Thetheoreticalapproach
highlightsethnonationalismandhowlinkagesbetweengroupidentitiesand
inequalitiesspurmobilizationandresorttoviolence.Althoughcontemporary
research on civil war has largely dismissed grievances as irrelevant, empha-
sizinginsteadtheroleofopportunities,theauthorsshowthatmanyalleged
nonresultsforgrievancesstemfromatheoreticalmeasures,typicallybasedon
individualist data. The authors develop new indicators of political and eco-
nomic exclusion at the group level and demonstrate how these exert strong
effects on the risk of civil war. They provide new analyses of the effects of
transnational ethnic links and the duration of civil wars and extended case
discussionsillustratingcausalmechanisms.
Lars-Erik Cederman is Professor of International Conflict Research at the
CenterforComparativeandInternationalStudiesatETHZu¨rich.Heisthe
authorofEmergentActorsinWorldPolitics(1997),theeditorofConstruct-
ingEurope’sIdentity(2001),andtheco-editorofNewSystemsTheoriesof
World Politics (2010). He is the winner of the 2012 and 2002 American
PoliticalScienceAssociation’sHeinzI.EulauAwards,the2000FurnissBook
Award,andtheHoraceH.RackhamDissertationAwardfromtheUniversity
ofMichigan.
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch is Professor in the Department of Government,
UniversityofEssex,andaResearchAssociateatthePeaceResearchInstitute
Oslo (PRIO). He is the author of All International Politics Is Local (2002)
and Spatial Regression Models (2008) as well as numerous journal articles.
Heisthewinnerofthe2012AmericanPoliticalScienceAssociation’sHeinz
I.EulauAward,the2011InternationalAssociationforConflictManagement
outstandingarticleinthefieldaward,the2007KarlDeutschAwardfromthe
International Studies Association, and the 2000 American Political Science
Association’sHelenDwightReidAward.
Halvard Buhaug is Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo
and Professor of Political Science at the Norwegian University of Science
and Technology. He received the 2006 Royal Norwegian Society of Sci-
ences and Letters award for excellent research by young scholars in human
sciences. Recent academic publications include articles in the Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Global Environmental Change, International Security,
International Organization, andProceedings of the National Academy of
SciencesoftheUSA.

CambridgeStudiesinContentiousPolitics
Editors
MarkBeissinger PrincetonUniversity
JackA.Goldstone GeorgeMasonUniversity
MichaelHanagan VassarCollege
DougMcAdam StanfordUniversityandCenterforAdvancedStudyinthe
BehavioralSciences
SarahA.Soule StanfordUniversity
SuzanneStaggenborg UniversityofPittsburgh
SidneyTarrow CornellUniversity
CharlesTilly(d.2008) ColumbiaUniversity
ElisabethJ.Wood YaleUniversity
DeborahYashar PrincetonUniversity
RonaldAminzadeetal.,SilenceandVoiceintheStudyofContentious
Politics
JavierAuyero,RoutinePoliticsandViolenceinArgentina:TheGray
ZoneofStatePower
W.LanceBennettandAlexandraSegerberg,TheLogicofConnective
Action:DigitalMediaandthePersonalizationofContentious
Politics
CliffordBob,TheMarketingofRebellion:Insurgents,Media,and
InternationalActivism
CharlesBrockett,PoliticalMovementsandViolenceinCentralAmerica
ValerieBunceandSharonWolchik,DefeatingAuthoritarianLeadersin
PostcommunistCountries
Lars-ErikCederman,KristianSkredeGleditsch,andHalvardBuhaug,
Inequality,Grievances,andCivilWar
ChristianDavenport,MediaBias,Perspective,andStateRepression
GeraldF.Davis,DougMcAdam,W.RichardScott,andMayerN.Zald,
SocialMovementsandOrganizationTheory
DonatelladellaPorta,ClandestinePoliticalViolence
ToddA.Eisenstadt,Politics,Identity,andMexico’sIndigenousRights
Movements
DanielQ.Gillion,ThePoliticalPowerofProtest:MinorityActivism
andShiftsinPublicPolicy
JackA.Goldstone,editor,States,Parties,andSocialMovements
TamaraKay,NAFTAandthePoliticsofLaborTransnationalism
ContinuedaftertheIndex

Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War
LARS-ERIK CEDERMAN
CenterforComparativeandInternationalStudies,
ETHZu¨rich
KRISTIAN SKREDE GLEDITSCH
UniversityofEssexandPeaceResearchInstituteOslo
HALVARD BUHAUG
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo
32AvenueoftheAmericas,NewYork,ny10013-2473,usa
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www.cambridge.org
Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107603042
©Lars-ErikCederman,KristianSkredeGleditsch,andHalvardBuhaug2013
Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception
andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements,
noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten
permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress.
Firstpublished2013
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
AcatalogrecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData
Cederman,Lars-Erik,1963–
Inequality,grievances,andcivilwar/Lars-ErikCederman,CenterforComparativeand
InternationalStudies,ETHZu¨rich;KristianSkredeGleditsch,UniversityofEssexandPeace
ResearchInstituteOslo;HalvardBuhaug,PeaceResearchInstituteOslo.
pagescm.–(Cambridgestudiesincontentiouspolitics)
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
isbn978-1-107-01742-9(hardback)–isbn978-1-107-60304-2(pbk.)
1.Civilwar–Socialaspects. 2.Equality. 3.Humanrights. I.Gleditsch,KristianSkrede,
1971– II.Buhaug,Halvard,1972– III.Title.
jc491.c374 2013
303.6ʹ4–dc23 2013001656
isbn978-1-107-01742-9Hardback
isbn978-1-107-60304-2Paperback
CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyofurlsfor
externalorthird-partyInternetWebsitesreferredtointhispublicationanddoesnotguarantee
thatanycontentonsuchWebsitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate.
Contents
Tables pageviii
Figures ix
Preface xi
1. Introduction 1
parti: theoriesandconcepts
2. InequalityandGrievancesintheCivilWarLiterature 11
3. FromHorizontalInequalitytoCivilWarviaGrievances 30
partii: empiricalanalysisofcivilwaronset
4. PoliticalExclusionandCivilWar 57
5. EconomicInequalityandCivilWar 93
6. TransborderEthnicKinandCivilWar 119
7. Country-LevelInequalitiesandCivilWar 143
partiii: beyondcivilwaronset
8. TheDurationandOutcomeofCivilWars 171
9. ConclusionsforTheoryandPolicy 205
References 227
Index 251
vii
Tables
4.1. Comparingexcludedandincludedgroups’conflict
propensities page71
4.2. Ethnicgroups’conflictpropensitybypower-access
category 72
4.3. Politicalhorizontalinequalityandgroup-levelonsetofcivil
war,1946–2009 73
5.1. Economichorizontalinequalityandgroup-levelonsetof
civilwar,1991–2009 108
6.1. TEKandgroup-levelonsetofcivilwar,1946–2009 132
7.1. Meansamplevaluesbyconflictoutcome,1991–2009 154
7.2. Logitmodelofcivilwaronset,1991–2009 155
7.3. Multinomiallogitmodelsofcivilwaronset,1991–2009 157
7.4. Highhorizontalinequalityin1999andcivilwaronset,
2000–9 161
7.5. Highhorizontalinequalityin2009withoutconflict,
1991–2009 164
7.6. Summaryoffindings 165
8.1. Approachestocivilwardynamics/duration 175
8.2. Coxproportionalhazardregressionestimatesof
termination,1946–2009 194
8.3. Multinomiallogitbyoutcometype(toconflict
continuation),1946–2009 197
8.4. Coxproportionalhazardregressionofconflict
termination,conflictlevel,1946–2009 203
9.1. Asummaryoftheconfirmedhypothesesofthisbook 206
9.2. Top-tencountrieswithlargestexcludedanddiscriminated
sharesofthepopulationin2009 221
viii
Figures
3.1. Thecausalpathfrominequalitiestoonsetthrough
grievances page36
3.2. Thecausalpathfromhorizontalinequalitiestogrievances 37
3.3. Thecausalpathfromgrievancestocivilwaronset 44
3.4. Grievance-basedmechanismasspuriousexplanation 51
3.5. Grievancesbypassedthroughreversecausation 52
4.1. Thepolitymodelwithincludedandexcludedgroups 59
4.2. Comparingtheeffectofpoweraccessstatusoncivilwar
onset 75
4.3. ComparingtheeffectoncivilwaronsetforEPRcategories 76
4.4. Theeffectofstatusreversalsontheprobabilityofcivilwar
onset 77
4.5. Conflictpropensityofincludedandexcludedgroupsasa
functionoftheirrelativesize 78
4.6. Conflictpropensityasafunctionofthenumberofthe
group’spreviousconflictonsets 79
5.1. G-EconcellsforYugoslaviaoverlaidwithGeoEPRgroup
polygonsforSlovenesandAlbanians 103
5.2. Resultofspatialwealthestimationforgroupsin
Yugoslavia 104
5.3. ResultofspatialwealthestimationforgroupsintheSudan 105
5.4. ResultofspatialwealthestimationforgroupsinMyanmar 106
5.5. Conflictprobabilityforgroupslesswealthythanthe
countryaverage 109
5.6. Conflictprobabilityforgroupswealthierthanthecountry
average 110
5.7. Comparingtheeffectofrelativepovertyontheconflict
probabilityofincludedandexcludedethnicgroups 111
ix