Indus River Basin. Water security and sustainability

464 Pages·2019·60.98 MB·English

by  Sadiq Ibrahim Khan, Thomas E. Adams (eds.)

INDUS RIVER BASIN
INDUS RIVER BASIN
Water Security and Sustainability
Edited by
S I. K
ADIQ HAN
UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR)at
NOAANationalWaterCenter,Tuscaloosa,AL,UnitedStates
T E. A III
HOMAS DAMS
TerraPredictions,LLC,Blacksburg,VA,UnitedStates
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Dedication
To Anayah,Haris,Eshal &Ruby for infusing allthe distractions andchaos in my life.
SadiqI.Khan
To all those who came before usand especially those who makeusbetterpeople.
ThomasE.AdamsIII
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Contributors
ThomasE.AdamsIII TerraPredictions,LLC, Security,UniversityofAgriculture,Faisalabad,
Blacksburg,VA,UnitedStates Pakistan
MuhammadAkram WaterandPower ZacharyFlamig CenterforDataIntensive
DevelopmentAuthority,Pakistan Science,UniversityofChicago,Chicago,IL,
AkhtarAli RASKnowledgeHub,Lahore, UnitedStates
Pakistan NathanForsythe WaterResourcesResearch
DavidR.Archer JBATrust,Skipton,United Group,SchoolofEngineering,Newcastle
University,Newcastle,UnitedKingdom
Kingdom
ZaheerAhmadBabar FloodForecasting HayleyFowler WaterResourcesResearch
Group,SchoolofEngineering,Newcastle
Division,PakistanMeteorologicalDepartment,
University,Newcastle,UnitedKingdom
Lahore,Pakistan
SamjwalRatnaBajracharya International DavidGochis NationalCenterfor
AtmosphericResearch,Boulder,CO,
CentreforIntegratedMountainDevelopment,
UnitedStates
Kathmandu,Nepal
MuhammadBasharat International MuraliKrishnaGumma InternationalCrops
ResearchInstitutefortheSemi-AridTropics
WaterloggingandSalinityResearchInstitute
(ICRISAT),Patancheru,India
(IWASRI),PakistanWaterandPower
DevelopmentAuthority(WAPDA),Lahore, YangHong SchoolofCivilEngineeringand
Pakistan EnvironmentalSciences,TheUniversityof
DanieleBocchiola DepartmentofCiviland Oklahoma,Norman,OK,UnitedStates
EnvironmentalEngineering,Politecnicodi VivekanandHonnungar NationalCenterfor
Milano,Milano,Italy AtmosphericResearch,Boulder,CO,United
Ju€rgenBo€hner CentreforEarthSystem States
ResearchandSustainability(CEN),Instituteof VijayRatanKhadgi InternationalCentrefor
Geography,UniversityofHamburg,Hamburg, IntegratedMountainDevelopment,
Germany Kathmandu,Nepal
TobiasBolch MountainCryosphereResearch SadiqI.Khan UniversityCorporationfor
Group,DepartmentofGeography,University AtmosphericResearch(UCAR)atNOAA
ofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland NationalWaterCenter,Tuscaloosa,AL,
OleksiyBoyko DepartmentofCivil UnitedStates
Engineering,UniversityofSiegen,Siegen, AsifKhan DepartmentofCivilEngineering,
Germany UniversityofEngineeringandTechnology,
JohnF.Burkhart UniversityofOslo,Oslo, JalozaiCampus,Peshawar,Pakistan
Norway MuhammadRiazKhan FloodForecasting
MuhammadJehanzebMasud Division,PakistanMeteorologicalDepartment,
Cheema DepartmentofIrrigationand Lahore,Pakistan
Drainage;PrecisionAgriculture,Centerfor KrishnanRaghavan IndianInstituteofTropical
AdvancedStudiesinAgricultureandFood Meteorology,Pune,India
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CONTRIBUTORS
Young-JooKwak InternationalCentrefor TomH.Rientjes DepartmentofWater
WaterHazardandRiskManagement Resources,FacultyITC,UniversityofTwente,
(ICHARM-UNESCO),PublicWorksResearch Enschede,TheNetherlands
Institute,Tsukuba,Japan,Departmentof AyeshaShahid MastersofCityPlanning,
EnvironmentalInformation,TokyoUniversity MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,
ofInformationSciences,Chiba,Japan Cambridge,MA,UnitedStates
LuLi NORCENorwegianResearchCentre; FinuShrestha InternationalCentrefor
BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,Bergen, IntegratedMountainDevelopment,
Norway Kathmandu,Nepal
SudanBikashMaharjan InternationalCentre ArunBhaktaShrestha InternationalCenterfor
forIntegratedMountainDevelopment, IntegratedMountainDevelopment,
Kathmandu,Nepal Kathmandu,Nepal
Micheld.S.Mesquita NORCENorwegian MandiraSinghShrestha InternationalCentre
ResearchCentre;BjerknesCentreforClimate forIntegratedMountainDevelopment,
Research,Bergen,Norway Kathmandu,Nepal
YvanJ.Orsolini BjerknesCentreforClimate AfreenSiddiqi MassachusettsInstituteof
Research,Bergen;NorwegianInstituteforAir Technology,Cambridge,MA,UnitedStates
Research,Kjeller,Norway AndreaSoncini DepartmentofCiviland
IndraniPal ColumbiaWaterCenter,Columbia EnvironmentalEngineering,Politecnicodi
University;NOAACooperativeRemote Milano,Milano,Italy
SensingScienceandTechnology(CREST) ShahzadSultan FloodForecastingDivision,
Center,TheCityUniversityofNewYork, PakistanMeteorologicalDepartment,Lahore,
NewYork,NY,UnitedStates Pakistan
AshwiniM.Panandiker TheEnergyand PardhasaradhiTeluguntla U.S.Geological
ResourcesInstitute(TERI),Goa,India Survey(USGS),WesternGeographicScience
JonggeolPark InternationalCentrefor Center,Flagstaff,AZ,USA
WaterHazardandRiskManagement PrasadS.Thenkabail U.S.GeologicalSurvey
(ICHARM-UNESCO),PublicWorksResearch (USGS),WesternGeographicScienceCenter,
Institute,Tsukuba,Japan,Departmentof Flagstaff,AZ,USA
EnvironmentalInformation,TokyoUniversity
ShabehulHasson CentreforEarthSystem
ofInformationSciences,Chiba,Japan
ResearchandSustainability(CEN),Instituteof
DavidPritchard WaterResourcesResearch Geography,UniversityofHamburg,Hamburg,
Group,SchoolofEngineering,Newcastle Germany;DepartmentofSpaceSciences,
University,Newcastle,UnitedKingdom InstituteofSpaceTechnology,Islamabad,
MuhammadUzairQamar Departmentof Pakistan
IrrigationandDrainage,Universityof VidyunmalaVeldore DetNorskeVeritas—
Agriculture,Faisalabad,Pakistan GermanischerLloyd,Oslo,Norway
AsadSarwarQureshi InternationalCenterfor NishaWagle InternationalCenterforIntegrated
BiosalineAgriculture(ICBA),Dubai,United MountainDevelopment,Kathmandu,Nepal
ArabEmirates
JamesL.Wescoat,Jr MassachusettsInstituteof
RupakRajbhandari TribhuvanUniversity, Technology,Cambridge,MA,UnitedStates
Kathmandu,Nepal
AnthonyM.Whitbread InternationalCrops
PaoloReggiani DepartmentofCivil ResearchInstitutefortheSemi-AridTropics
Engineering,UniversityofSiegen,Siegen, (ICRISAT),Patancheru,India
Germany
Foreword
The Indus River Basin (IRB) is shared by four countries, Pakistan, India, China, and
Afghanistan. Within the context of sustainability, it is appropriate to summarize how they
differ in their economic activity and needs in relation to their demand for water within
the basin.
Pakistan,withthelargestproportionofthebasinarea(47%)andpopulation(61%),hasthe
greatestdependencyontheIndusRiverwiththeJhelumandChenabtributaries.TheIndusis
theverylifebloodofPakistan,andthedemandforwaterisgrowingrapidly.Accordingtothe
2017census,Pakistannowhasapopulationof212million,makingitthesixthlargestcountry
bypopulationintheworld,andmostofthatpopulationiswithinanddependentontheIndus
RiverBasin.Populationgrowthremainscloseto2%perannumwithatotaladdedpopulation
each year of 3.8 million. The requirement for water, food, energy, and services for such an
increaseindemandwouldchallengethemostdevelopedeconomybutisevenmoreexacting
for a country whose primary source ofincome isbased onagriculture.
TheIndiancontributiontothebasinareaisapproximately39%,anditspopulationis35%
ofthetotalbasin.WhiletheIRBmakesaconsiderablecontributiontotheIndianeconomyin
agricultural production, it represents less than 14% of the total area of thecountry andless
than 12% of its population. Population growth is lower than in Pakistan, at around 1.3%
per annum. With a more diverse national economy, India is better positioned to withstand
environmental shocks to the IRB withinits jurisdiction.
Afghanistan’scontributiontothebasinareaisjust6%,anditspopulationis3%,mainlyin
theKabulRiverBasin.However,theKabulRivercontributesapproximatelyaquarterofthe
country’sfreshwater,and23%oftheAfghanpopulationliveintheKabulBasin,includingthe
rapidlygrowingcityofKabul.Afterdecadesofwarandpoliticalturmoil,itisattemptingto
develop an agricultural economy based on irrigation and provide basic power needs. It is
therefore not surprising that there is strong national pressure to use the water within its
own territory, but with strong opposition from downstream Pakistan, which has already
developedwater infrastructures in the basin.
About 8% of the basin lies in China on the fringes of the Tibetan Plateau and is sparsely
populated but significant as the source of the main Indus Riverand theSutlejRiver.
Sustainability has political, environmental, and social dimensions. Sustainability will re-
quire active cooperation between the constituent countries. The Indus Water Treaty of
1960 provides rules of cooperation and sharing of water between India and Pakistan, but
itisobservedintheletterofthelawratherthaninaspiritofcooperation.Itfailstoaddress
the legitimate interests of Afghanistan and China and is concerned with abstractions from
river flow and not from the shared alluvial groundwater. It also fails to address problems
ofwaterqualityorprovideforenvironmentalresidualflowstoensurethehealthoftheriver
to the estuary. This book fleshes out the competingand conflicting demands.
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FOREWORD
Environmentalconcernsfocusontheroleofclimatechangeandvariabilityandconsequent
influences on river flow. It is imperative therefore to improve understanding of processes,
trends, and variability of climate and river flow as a basis for responding to extremes of
drought (e.g., from 1998 to 2002) and floods (e.g., 2010 and 2011) and planning for future
added risks that may develop as a result of climate change. While the beneficiaries of im-
proved understanding are mainly on the irrigated plains, the flow in the river and its vari-
ability are largely driven by what happens in its mountain headwaters. Understanding
andanalysisdemanddata.AlthoughnationalagenciesinPakistanandIndiaestablishedcli-
mate and flow networks in the mountain source areas in the 1950s, these networks remain
sparse,limitedtolowerelevations,andlargelyrestrictedwithinnationalboundaries.Some
progresshasbeenmadeinunderstandingpasttrendsandvariability,butattemptsatclimate
andflowprojectionsbasedonthelimiteddataprovideconflictingresults,ascanbeseenfrom
the detailedanalysis provided inthis book.
Thefocusofanalysishasshiftedfromground-baseddatatosatelliteremotelysenseddata
combinedwithmeteorologicalreassessmentandavarietyofmodelingapproachestoattempt
explanation of climate patterns that are sometimes at variance with global norms and with
trends in Central Himalaya. Of particular interest has been the atypical downward trend
insummertemperaturesthathaveresultedinreducedglacialablationanddownwardtrends
in river flow from high-level catchments. This pattern of behavior is now sufficiently well
established to begiven thename“Karakoram anomaly.”
Downstream,Pakistanfacesanetworkofinterlinkedchallengesinwhichwaterresources
playakeyrole.Waterresourcesforirrigationwillgraduallydiminishasreservoirstoragein
the major controlling reservoirs of Tarbela and Mangla is taken up by sediment. Reservoir
sedimentationwillalsolimittheabilitytogeneratehydroelectricpowertomeetthegrowing
demand for domestic and industrial energy. Proposed new dams are shelved foreconomic
andpoliticalreasons.Furtherpressingproblemsaretheimpactofwaterloggingandsalinity
onproductiveagriculture,over-abstractionofgroundwater,andcompetitionbetweenirriga-
tiondemandandlegitimatedemandsfordomestic,industrial,andenvironmentaluse.Water
resources,especiallyinPakistan,arealreadyhighlystressedandwillbecomeincreasinglyso
with projected population changes.
Thecontributionstothebookshowafascinatingvarietyofapproachesandrepresentes-
sentialstepstowardthedefinitionifnotthesolutionofproblemsofincreasingsignificanceto
thegrowingpopulationoftheIRB.Itshouldthereforebeessentialreadingforpolicymakers
ineachoftheconstituentcountries,forwaterresourcesandenvironmentalmanagers,andfor
researchersinclimateandhydrology,andforallreaderswithaconcernfortheprosperityand
well-being of those who live in theIndus River Basin.
David Archer
NewcastleUniversity,NewcastleuponTyne,England
JBA Consulting Engineers and Scientists,Skipton,England
Acknowledgments
Firstandforemost,theeditorshighlyvaluetheunconditionalsupportofeachofthecon-
tributing authors who synthesized their research that appeared in a number of published
scholarly manuscripts. We express gratitude to numerous collaborators from the academic
aswellasthepublicsector.ThefacultyandstudentsoftheSchoolofCivilandEnvironmental
Engineering(SCEE)attheNationalUniversityofScienceandTechnology(NUST),theSchool
ofCivilEngineeringandEnvironmentalScienceattheUniversityofOklahoma,andQuaid-i-
AzamUniversityareacknowledgedfortheircontributions.Weareverygratefultotheteam
at thePakistan Meteorological Department for providing hydrometeorological data. Devel-
opmentofsomeofthefloodforecastingworkfortheIndusRiverBasinhasbeensignificantly
enhanced through funding under the Pakistan-US Science and Technology Cooperation
Program managed by the United States National Academy of Sciences.
The editors would be remiss without acknowledging Emily Thomson with Elsevier for
her help, guidance, and patience in putting this book together. We are humbled by the
opportunity to bring these chapters to the hydrologic andwater resources community.
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