India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal

916 Pages·2001·7.5 MB·English

by  Ashley J. Tellis

For Snuffles, Arthur, Athena, and Dhun—in partial recompense
for many lost weekends
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PREFACE
The resumption of nuclear testing in South Asia in May 1998 came
as a surprise to many in the United States. In the aftermath of these
tests, India declared itself to be a “nuclear weapon state” and for-
mally announced its intention to develop a nuclear deterrent. These
events have significant implications both for regional security and
for the future of the evolving international order. In particular, they
require that American policymakers and defense planners under-
stand the motivations behind India’s decisions as well as the nature
of Indian thinking about nuclear weaponry and the character of the
evolving Indian deterrent—especially insofar as these issues affect
U.S. diplomatic initiatives, nonproliferation policy, and regional
strategy.
This book describes India’s emerging nuclear posture in the con-
text of a broader assessment of its strategic interests, institutional
structures, and security goals. It seeks to explicate the prevailing atti-
tudes toward nuclear weaponry among Indian security managers be-
cause such attitudes, more than anything else, will ultimately de-
termine New Delhi’s future decisions with regard to its doctrine,
capabilities, and force posture. Since the principal objective of this
book is to prepare U.S. policymakers in particular and the American
strategic community in general for prospective developments in
these three issue areas, a critical understanding, reconstruction, and
synthesis of the “official mind” on key questions pertaining to nucle-
arization remain the most appropriate methodological device for as-
sessing New Delhi’s strategic choices.
v
vi India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture
Toward that end, the book draws deeply from the best of the vast
number of Indian writings available on issues surrounding nuclear
weaponry. In fact, all the data and information pertaining to the
Indian nuclear program have been drawn from open sources, pri-
marily Indian and Western newspapers, books, and journal articles.
The author also benefited greatly from extensive interviews with im-
portant Indian political figures (both in the current government and
in the opposition) as well as with high-ranking officials in the Prime
Minister’s Office, the Ministries of External Affairs and Defence (in-
cluding the Defence Research and Development Organization), and
senior Indian military officers, both current and retired. This ex-
clusive reliance on open-source and interview materials implies that
some factual information appearing in this book may be imperfect
but does not fundamentally compromise either the principal analyti-
cal conclusions drawn or the policy implications for the United
States. The writing of this book was substantially completed by
October 2000.
This study is part of an ongoing analysis of emerging strategic
trends in Asia and their implications for the U.S. Air Force. This re-
search is conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project
AIR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air
and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO), and the Commander-
in-Chief, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC). This book should be of in-
terest to the U.S. national security community, regional military and
intelligence analysts, the nonproliferation establishment, and aca-
demics in general.
PROJECT AIR FORCE
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally
funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and
analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of pol-
icy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat
readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Re-
search is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Develop-
ment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management;
and Strategy and Doctrine.
CONTENTS
Preface ......................................... v
Figures ......................................... ix
Maps .......................................... xi
Tables. ......................................... xiii
Acknowledgments. ................................ xv
Acronyms ....................................... xxiii
Chapter One
INTRODUCTION .............................. 1
Chapter Two
STRATEGIC FACTORS AFFECTING INDIA’S NUCLEAR
POSTURE .................................... 9
Explaining the Heritage of Nuclear Ambiguity ......... 10
Understanding the Variables Affecting India’s Nuclear
Posture .................................. 20
The Global Nuclear Regime ..................... 20
The Regional Nuclear Threat Environment .......... 39
Relations with Key Countries .................... 76
Domestic Politics and National Economic Perfor-
mance ................................... 89
Chapter Three
ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE INDIAN NUCLEAR
POSTURES ................................... 117
Alternatives Involving Denuclearization .............. 125
Alternative I: Renounce the Nuclear Option ......... 126
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viii India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture
Alternative II: A Regional “Nuclear-Free Zone” ....... 155
Evaluating Denuclearization .................... 168
Alternatives Involving Nuclearization ............... 172
Alternative III: Maintaining the Nuclear Option ...... 173
Alternative IV: A Recessed Deterrent ............... 211
Alternative V: Developing a Ready Nuclear Arsenal .... 225
What Will India Choose? ......................... 243
Chapter Four
TOWARD A FORCE-IN-BEING (I): UNDERSTANDING
INDIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AND FUTURE FORCE
POSTURE .................................... 251
India’s Nuclear Doctrine: Concerns, Contexts, and
Constraints ............................... 259
The Declaratory Level of Policy .................. 261
The Operational Level of Policy .................. 296
Fashioning a Deterrent: The Logic and Structure of the
Evolving Force-in-Being ..................... 366
Limited in Size ............................... 374
Separated in Disposition ....................... 401
Centralized in Control ......................... 428
Taking Stock .................................. 467
Chapter Five
TOWARD A FORCE-IN-BEING (II): ASSESSING THE
REQUIREMENTS AND ADEQUACY OF THE EVOLVING
DETERRENT .................................. 477
Putting the Pieces Together: What India Has, What India
Hasn’t ................................... 478
Fissile Materials .............................. 478
Nuclear Weapons ............................ 498
Delivery Systems ............................. 527
Supporting Infrastructure ...................... 582
Procedural Systems ........................... 635
Meeting the Demands of Successful Deterrence ........ 671
Chapter Six
THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF INDIA’S NUCLEAR
POSTURE .................................... 725
Bibliography ..................................... 767
Index .......................................... 863
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