Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation: Better Measurement and Test Design for the Interim Brigade Combat Team with Stryker Vehicles, Phase I Report

125 Pages·2003·3.66 MB·English

by  National Research Council, Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle

Improved
Operational
Testing and
Evaluation
Better Measurement and Test Design for the
Interim Brigade Combat Team with Stryker Vehicles
Phase I Report
Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the
Interim Armored Vehicle
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
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Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. DASW01-02-C-0011 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2003). Improved Operational Testing
and Evaluation: Better Measurement and Test Design for the Interim Brigade Combat
Team with Stryker Vehicles. Phase I Report. Panel on Operational Test Design and
Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle, Committee on National Statistics. Wash-
ington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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PANEL ON OPERATIONAL TEST DESIGN AND EVALUATION
OF THE INTERIM ARMORED VEHICLE
STEPHEN M. POLLOCK (Chair), Department of Industrial and
Operations Engineering, University of Michigan
SETH BONDER, Consultant, Ann Arbor, Michigan
MARION BRYSON, North Tree Fire International, Marina, California
WILLIAM Q. MEEKER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
VIJAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
JOHN E. ROLPH, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern
California
FRIEDRICH-WILHELM SCHOLZ, The Boeing Company, Seattle,
Washington
HAL S. STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California,
Irvine
ALYSON G. WILSON, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico
JAMES P. McGEE, Study Director
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Staff Officer
MICHAEL J. SIRI, Project Assistant
v
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2002-2003
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of
Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Yale University
ROBERT BELL, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of
Pennsylvania
ROBERT M. GROVES, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
JOEL HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, Northwestern
University
WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North
Carolina
ARLEEN LEIBOWITZ, School of Public Policy Research, University of
California, Los Angeles
THOMAS A. LOUIS, Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins
University
VIJAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey
KENNETH PREWITT, Department of Political Science, Columbia
University
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of
Michigan
ANDREW A. WHITE, Director
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Contents
Preface ix
Executive Summary 1
1 Introduction 11
2 Test Process 23
3 Test Measures 31
4 Statistical Design 59
5 Data Analysis 76
6 Assessing the IBCT/Stryker Operational Test in a Broad
Context 87
References 97
vii
viii CONTENTS
Appendices
A Letter Report of the Panel to the Army Test and Evaluation
Command 99
B Force Exchange Ratio, Historical Win Probability, and
Winning with Decisive Force 105
C Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff 109
Preface
The activities of the National Research Council (NRC) cover a wide
variety of assignments, in which panels of experts are asked to prepare con-
sensus reports on technical problems or public policy questions; survey
scientific, medical, or engineering knowledge; and sponsor roundtables,
forums, and meetings that focus on airing and supporting the resolution of
controversial issues.
The Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim
Armored Vehicle has been charged with a less common task: providing an
assessment and review of an ongoing activity, the operational testing of an
important military system. The procedures for the extremely complex and
highly sensitive testing, which has yet to be carried out, are specified in the
Army’s system evaluation plan (SEP) for the Stryker family of vehicles.
Both the panel and our sponsor acknowledge that the SEP is a “living
document” (or moving target); this has already been manifest by the study’s
being overtaken by a number of events during the 11 months of the panel’s
tenure:
• The Interim Armored Vehicle (IAV) in the panel’s initial (and offi-
cial) name and statement of work has been renamed the Stryker family of
vehicles.
• The Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT) concept, for which the
Stryker is intended to provide mobility and “situation awareness” support,
has been continuously evolving.
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