Table Of Content—
S. HRG. 103-528
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IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE C—HAN=GE
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ACTION
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BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON
CLEAN AIR AND NUCLEAR REGULATION
OF THE
COMMITTEE ON
ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
APRIL 14, 1994
Printed for the use of the Committee on Environment and Public Works
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
78-531mc WASHINGTON : 1994
ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice
SuperintendentofDocuments,CongressionalSalesOffice,Washington,DC 20402
ISBN 0-16-044779-8
S. HRG. 103^528
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTION PUN========
96/10: S. HRG. 103-528
M
tation of the Clinate Chang..„. £ARING
BEFORE THE
SUBCOMMITTEE ON
CLEAN AIR AND NUCLEAR REGULATION
OF THE
COMMITTEE ON
ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS
UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED THIRD CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
APRIL 14, 1994
SEp
J<U..
Printed for the use of the Committee on Environment and Public Works
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
78-531mc WASHINGTON : 1994
ForsalebytheU.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice
SuperintendentofDocuments,CongressionalSalesOffice,Washington,DC 20402
ISBN 0-16-044779-8
COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS
MAX BAUCUS, Montana, Chairman
DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN, New York JOHN H. CHAFEE, Rhode Island
GEORGE J. MITCHELL, Maine ALAN K. SIMPSON, Wyoming
FRANK R. LAUTENBERG, New Jersey DAVE DURENBERGER, Minnesota
HARRY REID, Nevada JOHN W. WARNER, Virginia
BOB GRAHAM, Florida ROBERT SMITH, New Hampshire
JHOOSWEAPRHDI.ML.IMEEBTEZRMEANNB,AUCMon,neOchtiicout LDIARUKCHKEFMAPITRHCLOORTNHE,,NIodrathhoCarolina
HARRIS WOFFORD, Pennsylvania
BARBARA BOXER, California
PETER L. SCHER, StaffDirector
STEVEN J. SHIMBERG, Minority StaffDirectorand ChiefCounsel
Subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Regulation
JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, Connecticut, Chairman
DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN, New York ALAN K SIMPSON, Wyoming
BOB GRAHAM, Florida LAUCH FAIRCLOTH, North Carolina
HOWARD M. METZENBAUM, Ohio DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Idaho
(ID
CONTENTS
OPENING STATEMENT
Page
Lieberman, Hon.Joseph I., U.S. Senatorfromthe State ofConnecticut 1
WITNESSES
Bowes, Michael, SeniorAnalyst, Office ofTechnologyAssessment 46
Prepared statement 108
Responses to additional questions 121
Davidson, Margaret A., executive director, South Carolina Sea Grant Pro-
gram 48
Prepared statement 123
Responsesto additional questions 122
Ervin, Christine, Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency and Renewable En-
ergy, DepartmentofEnergy 10
Prepared statement 69
Responsesto additional questions from:
Senator Lieberman 75
SenatorChafee 84
Leatherman, Stephen, director, Laboratory for Coastal Research, University
ofMaryland 28
Prepared statement 92
Nutter, Franklin, president, Reinsurance Association ofAmerica 42
Prepared statement 99
Responsesto additional questions 107
Sussman, Robert M. Sussman, Deputy Administrator, Environmental Protec-
tionAgency 4
Prepared statement 52
Responsesto additional questions from:
Senator Lieberman 58
SenatorChafee 63
Tierney, Susan, Assistant Secretary, Policy, Planning and Program Evalua-
tion, DepartmentofEnergy 7
Prepared statement 65
Responsesto additional questions from:
Senator Lieberman 75
SenatorChafee 84
ADDITIONAL MATERIAL
Statements of:
Patton, Peter C, professor, Department of Earth and Environment
Sciences, Wesleyan University 95
SpecialtySteel Industry ofthe UnitedStates 129
(ill)
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE
ACTION PLAN
THURSDAY, APRIL 14, 1994
U.S. Senate,
Committee on Environment and Public Works,
Subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Regulation,
Washington, DC.
The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:36 a.m. in room
SD—406, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Joseph I. Lieberman
[chairman ofthe subcommittee] presiding.
Present: Senators Lieberman and Faircloth.
OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, U.S.
SENATOR FROM THE STATE OF CONNECTICUT
Senator Lieberman. Good morning, and welcome to this sub-
committee hearing. Last October, when we first had discussion
about the President's Global Climate Change Plan, I expressed cau-
tious optimism about the plan, which is designed to reduce green-
house gas emissions by the year 2000 to 1990 levels. I had one con-
cern about the plan which was that it contained neither interim
milestones nor a system for measuring those milestones so that we
do not arrive at the year 2000 and find that we are way behind
President Clinton's commitment to the Nation and to the world
community.
I said at the committee's October hearing that I would be calling
EPA and DOE back in 6 months to determine ifprogress had been
made in this area, and thanks to an extraordinarily efficient and
time sensitive staff, we have managed to achieve that here this
morning. And I thank the witnesses for being here.
The administration's testimony today indicates that significant
steps have been taken in meeting the concerns that were expressed
in October. The Department of Energy and the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency I think do an excellentjob in their testimony ofask-
ing the right questions for determining whether the plan will be
successful. And those questions include: what if the plan has only
limited success in achieving the objectives of reducing greenhouse
gas emissions and saving energy; how can we determine which of
the plans 46 actions reduce emissions most effectively; can they be
expanded; should those that yield lower than expected savings be
continued; can they be improved.
But while these questions are the right ones, I am concerned
that the approach to providing clear answers to those questions is
not as much in place as I think it ought to be. There is no sub-
stitute for an annual system of measurement, monitoring and
(1)
tracking of greenhouse gas reductions from each strategy. The de-
gree ofmarket place success ofthe technologies or strategies in the
plan, the degree ofclient satisfaction and favorable public opinion,
while useful, cannot serve as a substitute for actual measurement
ofenergy savings and emissions reductions.
Many of the items in the climate change plan are frankly
unproven with respect to their ability to achieve emission reduc-
tions. I think it is therefore very important that the success or fail-
ure of these actions be measurable. These measurements are im-
portant so that we can ensure that successful technologies or strat-
egies are expanded and unsuccessful programs are eliminated. I
hope to hear more from the administration this morning on this
point. How will we ensure that resources are allocated to those pro-
grams which are achieving maximum emissions reductions. Pro-
grams with appropriations obviously develop constituencies that
advocate for those appropriations. Will it be easy to abandon a
technology or a strategy that has developed a constituency. Infor-
mation about reductions from individual action items must be ac-
companied by data on national progress in reducing the inventory
of greenhouse gas emissions. I am pleased that the administration
will testify today about the system for monitoring and tracking the
national inventory that it has developed.
My concern about some of these questions I've raised is height-
ened; while I applaud the administration for the forward steps it
has taken, pathbreaking steps dealing with the reality ofglobal cli-
mate change which have not been taken by previous administra-
—
tions,—the plan itself and I think we've got to be frank to acknowl-
edge in terms of its actual impact, should be described as an im-
portant, but ultimately first and modest step.
In this regard, I would say that I'm troubled by recent informa-
tion from the Energy Information Administration which apparently
shows that by the end of 1993 energy related carbon emissions had
reached a level that the administration had not anticipated in its
calculations until around 1996. I'm not saying this is bad faith by
the administration, it is simply that the carbon emissions have
risen more rapidly than was foreseen. And that would raise serious
questions about whether stabilization of emissions can be achieved
by the year 2000. Second, even ifgre—enhouse gases throughout the
world are frozen at 1990 levels—today let's assume that they could
be frozen at those levels today constant annual emissions will still
increase the total concentration of greenhouse gases and the heat
trapping capacity ofthe atmosphere.
In other words, stabilizing emissions is quite different from sta-
bilizing atmospheric concentrations. The International Panel on
Climate Change, which is the international relevant group that
represents 50 countries, concluded that stabilizing greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere at today's level would require up to an 80
percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions immediately and sig-
nificant reductions in other greenhouse gases. According to the
Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, unless the global
climate change models that we are all dealing with now are seri-
ously flawed, average temperatures are expected to increase ap-
proximately five degrees fahrenheit over the next century, even
under the most optimistic emission reductions scenarios.
So to sum it up, it seems to me that there is increasing scientific
evidence that I am sure we will hear today that global climate
change is occurring. This is real; this is not the stuff of science fic-
tion or a bunch of air headed alarmists, this is documented. And
what we are attempting to do to cut down emissions, as significant
as those steps are, nonetheless are just the beginning of what we
are going to have to do to deal with this problem.
And that is why OTA representatives and some of the scientists
we will hear today will tell us that even ifthe plan that the admin-
istration has put forth is successful, we are going to have to cope
with the consequences ofglobal climate change. That is, we are not
really stopping the process at this point. And those consequences
will include rising sea levels, the possibility of more frequent and/
or more intense coastal storms, recurring periods of temperature
variability and droughts, changes in water supplies, disruption of
ecosystems, and changes in many other climate-sensitive natural
resources.
The fact is that global sea level has risen 4 to 8 inches in the
past hundred years. OTA reports that a best estimate offuture sea
level rise due to global warming is 26 inches above levels that
would have otherwise existed by the year 2100. So we have 4 to
8 inches increase in sea level over the last hundred years, and an
estimate from our own Office of Technology Assessment, of 26
inches more in essentially the next hundred years. If no action is
taken to protect against this rise, according to OTA, up to 5,000
square miles of dry land, and an additional 4,000 square miles of
wetlands, could be inundated, including portions of such coastal
cities as Atlantic City, Ocean City, Charleston and Miami Beach.
Just to bring it home to Connecticut, sea level rises of this mag-
nitude along the Connecticut coast would result in total inundation
or significant landward moving of barrier beaches such as
Hammonasset Beach, which is probably our most popular State
park beach in Connecticut, and destruction of some coastal prop-
erty. It would also result in more damaging flooding along the tidal
Connecticut River and more ofwetlands.
OTA argues that the virtual inevitability of climate change and
the magnitude ofthe potential effects of climate change requires us
to take mitigation steps. We are going to hear about some of those
recommendations today. But while it is appropriate to consider
mitigation measures, the OTA work also makes clear that we must
make sure that the actions we are taking to reduce the impact of
climate change are as effective as possible. And it is with that goal
in mind that this Subcommittee will continue its oversight of the
plan's implementation.
I am delighted now to welcome the witnesses. On the first panel
I'll list them and then call on them. First is Honorable Robert
Sussman, Deputy Administrator of U.S. EPA; Honorable Susan
Tierney, Assistant Secretary for Policy, Planning and Program
Evaluation at DOE, and the Honorable Christine Ervin, Assistant
Secretary Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, ofthe U.S. De-
partment of Energy. And Bob, I see you are accompanied by a fa-
miliar figure who you may also wish to introduce. Welcome and we
look forward to your testimony.
STATEMENT OF HON. ROBERT M. SUSSMAN, DEPUTYADMINIS-
TRATOR, U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, AC-
COMPAMED BY DAVTO GARDNER, ASSISTANT ADMINIS-
TRATOR FOR POLICYAND PLANNING
Mr. SUSSMAN. Thank you very much. I will introduce this famil-
iar figure on my right who is David Gardner, our Assistant Admin-
istrator for Policy, Planning and Evaluation, and a critical player
in our climate change effort, who supports me and others very ef-
fectively. I am happy to have you here.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for the opportunity to discuss EPA's
implementation of the Climate Change Action Plan. When the
President released the Plan, he stated that it is "the most aggres-
sive and the most specific first step that any nation on this planet
has taken in the face of perhaps the biggest environmental threat
to the planet." The President committed his Administration to peri-
odically evaluate the emission trends and program effectiveness
and to pursue additional policy initiatives if the trends indicate
that our progress is insufficient to obtain our goal. Since the Presi-
dent announced the Plan 6 months ago, our Agency has focused on
establishing programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as
quickly and efficiently as possible. An integral part of this effort
has been the establishment of simple, clear indicators of progress
for plan implementation.
Our Agency, and the Department of Energy, co-lead an inter-
agency effort to track progress of the Climate Change Action Plan.
We have established a three-part framework to evaluate progress
towards our national goals. First, EPA works with the Department
of Energy Information Agency and the Department of Agriculture
to develop and update inventories ofemissions ofgreenhouse gases
nationally.
But the national inventory is too general to rely on for detailed
evaluation and finetuning ofAction Plan activities. For that reason,
the second part of our framework consists of the goals that we at
EPA have established for each element of the plan for which we
are responsible and the related indicators of progress we have put
in place to gauge the extent to which our initiatives are on track.
The third element of the framework we have put in place in co-
operation with the Department ofEnergy is an effort to update and
evaluate the relationship between what I might call the micro-level
effects of individual actions, and the macro-level effects dem-
onstrated in trends in the national emissions inventory. Bridging
the gap between the two will allow us to better determine the over-
all effectiveness ofthe Plan, to target improvements in program ac-
tivities to obtain the most cost effective emission reductions, and to
guide development oflater plans.
Let me comment more fully on some of the program indicators
and milestones that we are putting in place for the initiatives that
we at EPA are implementing. By December of 1993 we at EPA had
established specific program indicators and milestones in a stand-
ard format to track our progress in implementing the Action Plan
and in reducing emissions ofgreenhouse gases.
I would like to share with you, Mr. Chairman, and I believe we
previously shared with your staff, a summary ofthe current indica-
tors and milestones. This summary reflects our current best esti-
