Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analyses of Post-War Election Programmes in 19 Democracies

508 Pages·1987·9.03 MB·English

by  Ian Budge

IDEOLOGY, STRATEGY AND
PARTY CHANGE:
SPATIAL ANALYSES OF
POST-WAR ELECTION
PROGRAMMES IN
19 DEMOCRACIES
The relevance of this book to central concerns of Political and Social Science hardly
needs emphasizing. Parties are the organizing force of democratic governments,
giving coherence and direction to their policies and relating them to popular
preferences. Election programmes are crucial to this role, providing electors with
some insight into the policies they are voting for, and parties themselves with a
starting point for their activity in government.
Discussion begins with a comparative assessment of the impact of election
pledges on government action. The book goes on to describe systematically the
place of the programmes in the political process of 19 democracies. It subjects them
to detailed qualitative, quantitative and spatial analyses to answer such questions
as: Who prepares election programmes and how? What is the nature of modern
party divisions? Do they differ across countries? Is there indeed an 'end of
ideology' or an intensification? Does the need to attract votes weaken old partisan
attachments?
Combining individual studies of each country with comparative analyses on a
scale never previously undertaken, the book will interest country specialists and
comparativists and prove indispensable to research on voting and party behaviour,
coalition formation, ideology, and rational choice.

IDEOLOGY, STRATEGY AND
PARTY CHANGE:
SPATIAL ANALYSES OF
POST-WAR ELECTION
PROGRAMMES IN
19 DEMOCRACIES
Edited by
IAN BUDGE, DAVID ROBERTSON
DEREK HEARL
Department of Government, University of Essex
and St Hugh's College, University of Oxford
The right of the
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CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS
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© Cambridge University Press 1987
First published 1987
British Library cataloguing in publication data
Ideology, strategy and party change: spatial analyses of
post-war election programmes in 19 democracies.
1. Political parties - Manifestos - History - 20th century
I. Budge, Ian II. Robertson, David, 1946- III. Hearl, Derek
324.2'3 JF2112.M3
Library of Congress cataloguing in publication data
Ideology, strategy, and party change.
Bibliography.
1. Political parties. 2. Electioneering. 3. Elections.
I: Budge, Ian. II. Robertson, David, 1946- . III. Hearl, Derek.
JF2011.134 1986 324.7 86-9612
ISBN 0 521 30648 5
Transferred to digital printing 2004
CONTENTS
1 The influence of election programmes: Britain and page 1
Canada 1945-1979.
Colin Railings, Plymouth Polytechnic.
2 The internal analysis of election programmes. 15
Ian Budge, University of Essex and European University
Institute, Florence.
3 Britain, Australia, New Zealand and the United 39
States 1946-1981, an initial comparative analysis.
David Robertson, St Hugh's College, Oxford.
4 Canada 1945-1980: party platforms and campaign 73
strategies.
William P. Irvine, Queen's University, Kingston.
5 Sri Lanka 1947-1977: elite programmes and mass 95
politics.
Judith Bara, Ealing College, London and James Manor,
University of Leicester.
6 Israel 1949-1981. Ill
Judith Bara, Ealing College, London.
7 Ireland 1948-1981: issues, parties, strategies. 134
Peter Mair, European University Institute, Florence
vi Contents
8 Northern Ireland 1921-1973: party manifestos and 160
platforms.
Michael Laver, University College, Galway and Sydney
Elliott, Queen's University, Belfast.
9 Sweden and Denmark 1945-1982: election pro- 177
grammes in the Scandinavian setting.
Margareta Holmstedt and Tove-Lise Schou, University of
Copenhagen.
10 The Netherlands 1946-1981. 206
Karl Dittrich, University of Limburg, Maastricht.
11 Belgium 1946-1981. 230
Derek J. Head, University of Essex.
12 Luxembourg 1945-1982: dimensions and 254
strategies.
Derek J. Hear I, University of Essex.
13 Austria 1945-1978. 270
Franz Homer, University of Salzburg.
14 Electoral programmes in West Germany 1949- 294
1980: explorations in the nature of political con-
troversy.
Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Free University, West Berlin.
15 France 1958-1981: the strategy of joint government 324
platforms.
Franqois Petry, University of Texas, Austin.
16 Italy 1946-1979: ideological distances and party 345
movements.
Alfio Mastropaolo, University of Turin and Martin Slater,
University of Essex.
17 Japan 1960-1980: party programmes in elections. 369
Takashi Inoguchi, University of Tokyo.
18 Do parties differ, and how? Comparative discrimi- 387
nant and factor analyses.
Ian Budge and David Robertson.
Contents vii
Appendices 417
A Documentary sources 417
B The general coding frame and special country 456
codes 468
C Factor analytic strategies used in the investi-
gation of election programmes
General bibliography 472
LIST OF TABLES
Chapter 1: Pledges
1.1 Number of specific pledges in British manifestos and Canadian
platforms 1945-1974
1.2 Pledges by subject matter - Britain 1945-1974
1.3 Pledges by subject matter - Canada 1945-1974
1.4 Implementation of Throne Speech 'Pledges' - Britain
1.5 Implementation of Throne Speech 'Pledges' — Canada
1.6 Manifesto pledges implemented - Britain
1.7 Manifesto pledges implemented - Canada
Chapter 3: Anglo-Saxon countries
3.1 Summary of major issues in four countries
3.2 The Foreign Policy domain - USA
3.3 Summary of factor analyses in economic domain
3.4 Second stage analysis for USA
3.5 Second stage analysis for Australia
3.6 Second stage analysis for New Zealand
3.7 Second stage analysis for Britain
Chapter 4: Canada
4.1 Campaign pamphlets and print-runs, 1979 Canada
4.2 Major issue themes in Canada, by party 1945—80
4.3 The Economic Policy domain
4.4 Government Structure domain
4.5 Means and standard deviations of factor scores by parties
4.6 Second stage factor analysis
4.7 Means and standard deviations of second stage factors by party
viii
List of tables ix
Chapter 5: Sri Lanka
5.1 Leading categories for UNP and SFLP manifestos 1947-1977
5.2 First-stage factor analysis: means and standard deviations of factor
scores by party and domain
5.3 Results of second stage factor analysis
Chapter 6: Israel
6.1 Leading issues stressed by Israeli parties 1949-81
6.2 Factors emerging within the Fabric of Society domain
6.3 First-stage factor analysis: means and standard deviations of factor
scores
6.4 Second-stage factor analysis: summary table of results
Chapter 7: Ireland
7.1 Leading categories, 1948-1981
7.2 First-stage factor analysis - Government
7.3 Means and standard deviations of first-stage factor scores by
parties and domains
7.4 Dimensions emerging from second stage factor analysis
Chapter 8: Northern Ireland
8.1 Leading categories for Northern Ireland parties, 1921-1973
8.2 First-stage dimensional analysis (within domain) Northern Ireland
8.3 Mean scores for each party on rotated principal components: first
stage analysis
8.4 Second-stage factor loadings and correlations of original variables
with second stage factors
Chapter 9: Denmark and Sweden
9.1 Ten categories most often emphasized by each Swedish party over
the postwar period
9.2 Ten categories most often emphasized by each of the traditional
Danish parties over the postwar period
9.3 Denmark and Sweden: means scores in each category for relevant
party manifestos
9.4 First-stage factor analysis of Economic domain - Sweden
9.5 First-stage factor analysis of Economics domain - Denmark
9.6 Correlations between original variables and second-stage factors -
Sweden
9.7 Correlations between original variables and second-stage factors -
Denmark
Chapter 10: Netherlands
10.1 Ten categories most often emphasized by each Dutch party
x List of tables
10.2 Netherlands: factor analysis by domain: Economy
10.3 Second stage factor analysis of Dutch party manifestos
Chapter 11: Belgium
11.1 Leading categories mentioned in Belgian party programmes
11.2 Summary of first-stage factors within each policy-domain
11.3 Second-stage analysis for Belgium: varimax rotated factor matrix
(and correlations with original variables)
Chapter 12: Luxembourg
12.1 Luxembourg: leading categories ordered overall and for each party
12.2 Luxembourg: second-stage factor analysis loadings of first-stage
factors
Chapter 13: Austria
13.1 Leading categories of Austrian election programmes
13.2 Factor analysis by domain: Economy
13.3 Summary of first-stage factors
13.4 Second-stage factor analysis: varimax rotated factor matrix (and
correlations with original variables)
Chapter 14: Germany
14.1 List of qualifying categories for Germany as a whole and for each
party (top five categories for each party highlighted)
14.2 The structure of policy domains: results of first-stage factor
analysis
14.3 Domains, dimensions, policy positions and concerns: an interpre-
tation of the first-stage factor analyses
14.4 Domains, dimensions, policy positions and concerns: the location
of parties
14.5 The structure of policy positions and concerns: result of a second-
stage factor analysis
14.6 Policy positions and concerns: an interpretation of the second-stage
factor analysis
14.7 Policy positions and concerns: the location of parties on second-
stage factors
Chapter 15: France
15.1 Some electoral platforms of the 70s. Format and number of printed
copies
15.2 Ten leading categories for partisan tendency
15.3 First-stage factor analysis of the Economy domain
15.4 First-stage factor analysis of the Welfare domain