Table Of ContentTrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller fpref.tex V3-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pagexiv
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V2-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pagei
Hydrometeorological Hazards
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V2-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pageii
ForthcomingTitlesintheSeries
FlashFloodsEarlyWarningSystems:PolicyandPractice
byDanielSempere-Torres
CoastalStorms:FromForecastingtoPrediction
byPaoloCiavolaandGiovanniCoco
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V2-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pageiii
Hydrometeorological
Hazards
Interfacing Science and Policy
Editedby
Philippe Quevauviller
Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)
Department of Hydrology and Hydrological Engineering
Brussels, Belgium
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V2-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pageiv
Thiseditionfirstpublished2015©2015byJohnWiley&Sons,Ltd
Registeredoffice:
JohnWiley&Sons,Ltd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK
Editorialoffices:
9600GarsingtonRoad,Oxford,OX42DQ,UK
TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussex,PO198SQ,UK
1606GoldenAspenDrive,Suites103and104,Ames,Iowa50010,USA
Fordetailsofourglobaleditorialoffices,forcustomerservicesandforinformationabouthowtoapplyfor
permissiontoreusethecopyrightmaterialinthisbookpleaseseeourwebsiteat
www.wiley.com/wiley-blackwell.
Therightoftheauthortobeidentifiedastheauthorofthisworkhasbeenassertedinaccordancewiththe
UKCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.
Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,or
transmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,
exceptaspermittedbytheUKCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,withoutthepriorpermissionof
thepublisher.
Designationsusedbycompaniestodistinguishtheirproductsareoftenclaimedastrademarks.Allbrand
namesandproductnamesusedinthisbookaretradenames,servicemarks,trademarksorregistered
trademarksoftheirrespectiveowners.Thepublisherisnotassociatedwithanyproductorvendor
mentionedinthisbook.
LimitofLiability/DisclaimerofWarranty:Whilethepublisherandauthor(s)haveusedtheirbesteffortsin
preparingthisbook,theymakenorepresentationsorwarrantieswithrespecttotheaccuracyor
completenessofthecontentsofthisbookandspecificallydisclaimanyimpliedwarrantiesof
merchantabilityorfitnessforaparticularpurpose.Itissoldontheunderstandingthatthepublisherisnot
engagedinrenderingprofessionalservicesandneitherthepublishernortheauthorshallbeliablefor
damagesarisingherefrom.Ifprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservicesofa
competentprofessionalshouldbesought.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataappliedfor.
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary.
Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmaynot
beavailableinelectronicbooks.
Coverimage:Bigwaves©johnnorth/iStockphoto
Setin10/12ptTimesTenLTStdbyLaserwordsPrivateLimited,Chennai,India
1 2015
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V3-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pagev
Contents
SeriesForeword xi
Preface xiii
TheSeriesEditor – PhilippeQuevauviller xv
ListofContributors xvii
PART ONE: SETTING THE SCENE 1
1.1 StrengthenedResiliencefromHistoricExperience.EuropeanSocieties
ConfrontedwithHydrometeorsintheSixteenthtoTwentiethCenturies 3
EmmanuelGarnier
1.1.1 Introduction 3
1.1.2 Fivecenturiesofdroughts 4
1.1.2.1 Historicmaterialandmethodsofevaluation 4
1.1.2.2 AcomparativeapproachtohistoricEuropeandroughts 7
1.1.3 TheEuropeancoastconfrontedwithsurges:Afirstever? 12
1.1.3.1 TheFrenchcoasts 13
1.1.3.2 Europeancomparison 13
1.1.3.3 MemoryofthebigfloodsinNorthernEurope 15
1.1.4 Amemoryofriskoracultureofsurvival? 17
1.1.4.1 LivingwithdroughtsintheCyclades:TheSyrosisland 17
1.1.4.2 TheAtlanticfloodof1937asarevelationofcoastalweaknesses 19
1.1.4.3 Thelessonsofhistoryregardingimpactstrength 22
1.1.5 Conclusion 24
References 24
1.2 CurrentUnderstandingofClimateChangeImpactsonExtremeEvents 27
RichardHarding,NickReynardandAlisonKay
1.2.1 Introduction 27
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V3-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pagevi
vi CONTENTS
1.2.2 Globalwaterbalance,pastandfuture 28
1.2.2.1 Humidityandevaporation 28
1.2.2.2 Precipitation 29
1.2.2.3 Riverrun-off 29
1.2.3 Globalextremes – Rainfall,floodsanddroughts 30
1.2.3.1 Precipitation 30
1.2.3.2 Storminess 30
1.2.3.3 Droughts 31
1.2.3.4 Floods 32
1.2.4 Futureglobalpredictions 33
1.2.5 Regionaldroughtandwaterresources 35
1.2.5.1 Droughtinthetwentiethcentury 35
1.2.5.2 Twenty-firstcenturydrought 37
1.2.6 Casestudy:Sciencetosupportpolicyforfloodmanagementunder
climatechange 39
1.2.7 Adaptationplanning 41
1.2.8 Concludingremarks 43
References 43
1.3 FeaturesCommontoDifferentHydrometeorologicalEvents
andKnowledgeIntegration 49
BarbaraZanuttigh
1.3.1 Introduction 49
1.3.2 Extremehydrometeorologicaleventsanddisasters:Anincreasingtrend 50
1.3.3 Integratingdisasterriskmanagementandclimatechangeadaptation 52
1.3.4 Predictingdisasters:Dealingwithuncertaintiesandscales 56
1.3.5 Betterunderstandingsystemexposureatthehazard 58
1.3.6 Resilience:Fromconcepttooperation 61
1.3.7 Learningfromexperience 63
1.3.8 Riskgovernance:Responsibilityandparticipation 67
1.3.9 Riskcommunication 70
1.3.10Aroadmaptowardsasustainablefuture 72
References 75
1.4 ScienceandPolicyInterfacing 83
PhilippeQuevauviller
1.4.1 Introduction 83
1.4.2 Takingaccountoftheknowledgebase 83
1.4.3 Conceptofscienceandpolicyinterfacing 84
1.4.4 Matchingresearchwithpolicyneeds 85
1.4.4.1 Typeofresearch 85
1.4.4.2 Shortanalysisofdrawbacks 86
1.4.5 Research–policyinteractions 86
1.4.5.1 Interactionswiththescientificcommunity 86
1.4.5.2 Synthesisneeds 87
1.4.5.3 Exchangeplatforms 88
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V3-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pagevii
CONTENTS vii
1.4.6 Conclusions 88
References 90
PART TWO: POLICY SETTINGS 91
2.1 WhenScienceMeetsPolicy:EnhancingGovernanceandManagement
ofDisasterRisks 93
DemetrioInnocenti
2.1.1 Scienceanddisasterriskmanagement 93
2.1.2 Knowledge-basedpolicy 95
2.1.3 Thescience–policyinterfaceinpractice 96
2.1.4 Evidence-baseddisasterriskpolicies 99
2.1.5 Climateresearchanddisastereconomics:Twoscientificpillarsofgovernance
ofdisasterrisks 102
2.1.6 Conclusions 104
References 106
2.2 HydrometeorologicalExtremesandtheScience–policyInterface:IPCC 109
ZbigniewW.Kundzewicz
2.2.1 Introduction 109
2.2.2 IPCCattheinterfaceofscienceandpolicy 110
2.2.3 EvolutionofIPCCover25years 112
2.2.4 IPCCSREXmessagesinanutshell 114
2.2.4.1 Observations 117
2.2.4.2 Projections 118
2.2.4.3 Managingtheriskofhydrometeorologicalextremes 120
2.2.5 Finalremarks – AR5isthere 120
Acknowledgements 121
References 121
2.3 ASnapshotofEUandInternationalPoliciesRelevant
toHydrometeorologicalEvents 123
PhilippeQuevauviller
2.3.1 Introduction – Acomplexpolicyframework 123
2.3.2 Climatechangeimpactsonwater 124
2.3.3 Policybackground 125
2.3.4 Internationalpolicies 126
2.3.5 EUwaterpolicies 129
2.3.5.1 Thewaterframeworkdirective 129
2.3.5.2 WFDandclimatechange 130
2.3.5.3 Theflooddirective 132
2.3.5.4 Thecommunicationondrought 132
2.3.6 Climateadaptationstrategy 133
2.3.7 Conclusions 134
References 135
TrimSize:170mmx244mm Quevauviller .tex V3-09/17/2014 6:07P.M. Pageviii
viii CONTENTS
PART THREE: OUTLINE OF SCIENTIFIC FEATURES 137
3.1 HydroinformaticsandItsRoleinFloodManagement 139
PhilippeGourbesville
3.1.1 Background 139
3.1.2 Floodmanagementinwater-relatedactivities 139
3.1.3 Whyhydroinformatics? 142
3.1.4 Towardsintegratedfloodmanagement 144
3.1.5 Hydroinformaticsandfloods 146
3.1.6 Floodmapsproduction 148
3.1.6.1 Producingthehydrograph 149
3.1.6.2 Hydraulicmodels 150
3.1.6.3 Parameterestimationinone-dimensionalflowmodels 152
3.1.6.4 Parameterestimationintwo-dimensionalflowmodels 153
3.1.6.5 Validationofresults 154
3.1.7 Real-timesystemsfordecisionssupport 156
3.1.8 Emergingtrendsforhigherefficiency 159
3.1.9 Highresolutiondataandhighresolutionhydraulicmodelling 159
3.1.10Fromcentralisedtodistributedandubiquitousarchitecture 163
3.1.11Perspectivesinconclusion 167
Acknowledgement 167
References 167
3.2 Drought:HowtobePreparedfortheHazard? 171
HennyA.J.VanLanen
3.2.1 Introduction 171
3.2.2 Drought:Generatingprocessesandidentification 173
3.2.3 Trendsindrought 177
3.2.3.1 Trendsinobserveddrought 177
3.2.3.2 Trendsinsimulatedhistoricdrought 178
3.2.3.3 Futuredrought 181
3.2.4 Monitoring,managementandearlywarning 189
3.2.5 Droughtimpactsandpolicy 191
Acknowledgements 196
References 196
3.3 DroughtintheLightofClimateChangeintheMediterraneanArea 203
AnaIglesiasandLuisGarrote
3.3.1 Introduction 203
3.3.2 Thelimitsofrainfall 204
3.3.2.1 Droughtandwaterscarcity:Overlappingchallengesintheregion 204
3.3.3 Estimatingdroughtvulnerability 208
3.3.3.1 Underlyingcausesofdroughtrisk 208
3.3.3.2 Adroughtvulnerabilityindex 211
3.3.4 Fromdroughtvulnerabilitytodroughtmanagement 213
3.3.4.1 Policies,actionsandexamples 213
3.3.4.2 Linkingindicatorstodroughtmanagementactions 214
