Table Of ContentHumans in Space
21st Century Frontiers
Humans in Space
21st Century Frontiers
Harry L. Shipman
Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Shipman, Harry L.
Humans in space: 2Ist Century frontiers / Harry L. Shipman.
p. cm.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-306-43171-5 ISBN 978-1-4899-6104-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4899-6104-4
1. Astronautics. 2. Outer space —Exploration. I Title.
TL790.S488 1989 88-33640
333.9/4-dcl9 CIP
© 1989 Harry L. Shipman
Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1989
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1989
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval System, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming,
recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher
Preface
We all think of the space program as one of the most forward-looking of
human activities. Meeting technological challenges, exploring the un
known, and the lure of the next frontier have drawn us upward, forward,
on to the next milestone. This book addresses the question of what the
next hundred years will bring in space. Two big unanswered questions
serve to frame the future: Can we live in space inexpensively, mining
water and other resources needed for human life from celestial bodies? Is
there any commercial payoff from the settlement of the inner solar sys
tem? The answers to these questions will determine whether or not space
settlement is our manifest destiny.
This look toward the future frames a painting which illustrates a
number of important space-related issues. What sort of exploratory ven
tures are human beings willing to undertake? Do we have the guts to make
those bold steps that visionaries are urging upon us-and does it make
sense to do so? What roles will humans play in space in the next century?
What is the potential for space commerce? How will the military be using
space, and what will be the impact of the military use of space on civilian
activities?
The year 2000 is nearly upon us; it's tempting to look ahead to the
more distant future in considering what may happen. In fact, it's not just
tempting, it's necessary, for what we do in the near future will set the
course of the space program for the next century. If we are farsighted, we
can lay the groundwork for future expansion into the solar system now. As
we do so, we will be able to determine whether such an expansion makes
sense or not. With lack of foresight, we will embark on yet another
megaproject which will last a decade and then leave space enthusiasts
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vi Preface
wondering what to do for an encore, as was the case when we landed on
the moon.
This book is bolder than my earlier book (Space 2000: Meeting the
Challenge of aNew Era), since I'm relying less on what we're doing now,
but I do try to keep my feet on the ground. It's not all forecasts of the next
hundred years; I'm using the visionary question as a way of focusing the
discussion of some issues like the human role in space, asteroid mining,
space commercialization, space militarization, and the future of space
science.
I've been working with the space program in one way or another
since 1974, as a guest investigator on various satellites operated by NASA
or its European counterpart ESA, on various review panels, and as a
NASA grantee. However, I've never been a NASA employee, nor :Jave I
received a security clearance; the views I express below are my own and
are based on the open literature.
I thank many colleagues, including Peter Banks of Stanford, Dick
Henry of Johns Hopkins, Carol Hoffecker of the University of Delaware
History Department, Norman Ness of the Bartol Research Institute, Dana
Rotegard of Rotegard Venture Capital, and Cheryl Thompson of the Uni
versity of Delaware Library for help in providing me with useful
comments, materials, and stimulating ideas. Linda Regan and Victoria
Cherney of Plenum have provided the feedback and prodding that all good
editors should. My children, Alice and Tom, and my wife Wendy have
tolerated the weekend and evening hours that a book requires; it is only
now that Alice has an answer to her question: "When will we go bowling
again, Daddy?"
Contents
PART I: THE SHORES OF SPACE 1
1 The Next Frontier? 5
2 The Exploring Spirit 25
3 Exploration: A Human Imperative? 45
4 Thirty Years Into Space 67
PART II: LIVING IN SPACE IN THE 21st
CENTURY 87
5 The Joys of Space Life 91
6 The Dangers of Spaceflight 103
7 The Necessities of Life 123
PART III: SPACE RESOURCES 141
8 Getting around the Inner Solar System 145
9 The Moon: A Worthless Piece of Real
Estate? 165
10 Near-Earth Asteroids: Gold Rush
Country? 179
11 Mars 199
12 Where Do We Go From Here? 225
PART IV: WHAT WILL WE BE DOING IN
SPACE? 239
13 Space Industrialization 243
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viii Contents
14 The Military Uses of Outer Space 263
15 Exploration of the Near and Distant Universe 281
16 Future Space Scenarios 291
17 The Trip to Mars 311
List of Acronyms 329
Reference Notes 333
Index 351
PART]
The Shores of Space
The exploration of space has just begun. Many space enthusiasts see the
journey into space as the next logical step in a human venture of explora
tion and discovery which began 500 years ago in the time of Christopher
Columbus. However, the differences between what we're doing now and
what Columbus did in days gone by mean that few people who are not
already space enthusiasts find that the memory of Columbus is, in itself, a
convincing reason to go into space. Now that we've passed many of the
early milestones in space exploration, having launched satellites and hu
man beings into orbit and landed on the surface of the moon, a number of
alternative space futures open up. What we do depends on whether space
exploration is purely government-funded science or whether it is commer
cial, and whether keeping human beings alive in space will always be as
expensive as it is now.
Another factor governing what we will do in space is whether we
have the political courage to support a long-term, sustained exploration
program. One way of determining just what kind of an exploration pro
gram human societies will support is to examine the past. While there is an
exploring spirit, a desire to go where no human has ever gone before, this
spirit by itself has never been the sole reason that humans have ventured
forth into unknown oceans. The past can serve as a guide, suggesting just
what kinds of space programs are politically possible. The immediate
past, the first 30 years of space exploration, have also shaped the major
space agencies and set the scene for our future in space.
What comes as a result of all this is a number of possible space
futures. We may indeed settle the solar system, first establishing outposts
and colonies in low earth orbit, and then gradually expanding the human
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