Table Of ContentHow Ireland Voted 2002
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How Ireland Voted 2002
Editedby
Michael Gallagher
AssociateProfessor, DepartmentofPoliticalScience,
TrinityCollege, UniversityofDublin
Michael Marsh
AssociateProfessor, DepartmentofPoliticalScience,
TrinityCollege, UniversityofDublin
and
PaulMitchell
LecturerinGovernment,LondonSchoolofEconomics, UK
* EditorialMatterandSelection©MichaelGallagher,
MichaelMarshandPaulMitchell2003
Chapters1-12andAppendices© Palgrave MacmillanLtd2003
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Contents
Listofillustrations vii
Listoftables ix
Listoffigures xi
Notesoncontributors xii
~~ ~
Glossaryandabbreviations xviii
Illustrations xix
1. Thebackgroundto the election 1
GaryMurphy
2. Campaign strategies 21
Stephen Collins
3. Candidate selection: more democraticor morecentrally
controlled? 37
YvonneGalligan
4. Thecandidates' perspective 57
SeanFleming, PaulBradford, Joan Burton,Fiona O'Malley,
DanBoyle, Aengus6Snodaigh andLiamTwomey
5. Stabilityandturmoil: analysis of theresults 88
MichaelGallagher
6. What decidedthe election? 119
JohnGarry, FiachraKennedy, MichaelMarshandRichardSinnott
7. Voterturnoutin 2002andbeyond 143
PatLyonsandRichardSinnott
8. Whythe opinion pollsgotit wrongin 2002 159
GailMcElroyandMichaelMarsh
9. Themediaandthe campaign 177
HeinzBrandenburgandJacquelineHayden
10. The subterraneanelection of the Seanad 197
MichaelGallagherandLiam Weeks
11. Governmentformation in 2002: 'You canhave anykind of
governmentaslongasit's FiannaFail' 214
PaulMitchell
vi HowIreland Voted2002
12. The electionandthepartysystem 230
John Coakley
Appendices 247
LiamWeeks
Appendix1:Resultsofthegeneralelection 247
Appendix2: Members ofthe29th Dail 251
Appendix3: Thegovernmentandministersofstate 258
Appendix4: Theelectoralsystem 260
Appendix5: Regulationofcampaign spending 262
Appendix6: Electronicvoting 265
Index 268
List of Illustrations
(Exceptwhereitisindicatedotherwiseallpicturesarereproducedbycourtesy
of theIrishIndependent.)
Fine Gael leaderMichaelNoonan at the launchof his party's
electionmanifesto; Green PartyleaderTrevorSargentlaunches
his party'smanifesto xix
Fine Gael leaderMichaelNoonanin MullingarHospital, 29 April;
theTaoiseach campaigningin Virginia, Co. Cavan, 3May xx
Fine Gael leaderMichaelNoonangets apie in theface in Boyle,
Co. Roscommon, 1May; LabourPartyleaderRuairi Quinn
speakingnextto astature ofJames Connolly, 30 April xxi
ProgressiveDemocratleaderMaryHarneyand candidate
Tom Parlonin Ballycommon, Co. Offaly (Marc O'Sullivan,
CollinsAgency); Green Partypress conferencein WicklowSt,
Dublin xxii
Fine Gael deputyleaderJimMitchell canvassingaconstituentin
Phibsboro, 3May; theTaoiseach Bertie Ahern enjoys acup of tea,
12May; oneof theMayo Fine Gael candidates, MichaelRing,
at amartin Westport, Co. Mayo, 6May xxiii
FiannaFailcandidatein DublinNorth-Central, DeirdreHeney
puttingup herpersonal posters; apartyworkertakingdown the
personal posters of Ivor Callely, anotherFiannaFailcandidate
in DublinNorth-Central; aCallelyposterupside down (editors);
an electronicposterfor MildredFox, Independentcandidate
in Wicklow, 13May xxiv
Thefront pageof theIrishIndependent, 9May xxv
Part of theballotpaperfor Wicklowshowingcandidatephotos
andpartylogos xxvi
Ministerfor the EnvironmentNoel Dempseywith oneof the
newelectronicvotingmachines; Presidingofficers waitingfor
voters onClare Islandwith atraditionalballotbox xxvii
An enclosedorderof nnsvotingin DublinCentral; ballotboxes
beingopenedat the Dublin countcentre (PressAssociation) xxviii
vii
viii HowIrelandVoted2002
Dr Liam Twomey(Independent) celebrateshis victory; Progressive
DemocratleaderMaryHarveycollectsherwinnings, havingbet
herpartywouldwin 8seats, 21 May; Sean Crowe (Sinn Fein)
celebrateshis victory(PressAssociation) xxix
The results are declaredafterthe quickelectroniccountin
DublinNorth; Fine Gael's EndaKennycelebrateshis victory xxx
ChiefWhip Seamus Brennan (FiannaFail)waitsfor thefirst
countfigures; Labour'sJoan Burtoncelebratesregainingher seat xxxi
CharlieO'Connor(FiannaFail)withhis granddaughterat the count;
newPDTDFionaO'Malleyiscongratulatedby herfather
DesO'Malley, theparty'sfounder xxxii
FormerLabourPartyleaderDick Springloses his seat in
KerryNorth (PressAssociation); thefuture LabourPartyleader
Pat Rabbitteretains his seat in DublinSouth-West; Olwyn Enright,
anewFine Gael TDat the count centrein Portlaoise xxxiii
PresidentMaryMcAleese withMaryHarneyandBertie Ahern,
6June; EndaKennyafterbeingelectedFine Gael leaderin
successionto MichaelNoonan xxxiv
The newgovernment xxxv
List of Tables
1.1 Annual averageGDPgrowth 1996-2000(%) 5
1.2 Annual averageunemploymentandinflationrates
1997-2002(%) 6
3.1 Partycandidatesand office-holding2002 41
3.2 Women candidates 1997 and 2002 50
5.1 Fate of candidatesat 2002election 90
5.2 Partypercentagesofthevotein 2002by province,
with changesfrom 1997 92
5.3 Parties'bestandworstperformancesin 2002, relative to 1997 93
5.4 Partyseats in 2002, by province, with changesfrom 1997 94
5.5 Fine Gael's performancein 1948, November 1982, and 2002 95
5.6 Transferpatterns at 2002 elections (%) 106
5.7 Constituencieswhere transfers affectedthe outcome 107
5.8 Ratio of parties' 2002performancesto 1997 performances 111
5.9 Occupationsof deputies in the 29th Dail, by party(%) 115
6.1 The parties' 1997 voters: defectors in 2002 124
6.2 The parties' 2002voters: newrecruits 125
6.3 Issues citedasimportant for vote 126
6.4 Changein issues mentionedasinfluencingvotebetween
the 1997 and 2002general elections (%) 127
6.5 Perceptionsof livingstandards and qualityof life over
precedingfive years 128
6.6 BestTaoiseach, trustworthiness andsatisfactionratings (%) 129
6.7 Partypreferences ofvarious social groups (%) 131
6.8 FiannaFail,Fine Gael andLabourvotersin different social
classes 1969-2002(%) 132
6.9 Partypreferencesby issue concerns andperformance
evaluations (%) 133
6.10 Partypreferencesby preferencefor Taoiseachand
government (%) 135
6.11 Effectofvariousfactors onvotechoice, multivariatelogit
regression 136
6.12 Simulations showingchangein partyvoteundervarious
assumptions 138
7.1 Reasons for abstentionin the 2002general election (%) 150
7.2 Breakdownof participation/abstentionby socio-demographic
andpoliticalvariables (%) 151
7.3 Individual-levelanalysis offactors affectingvoter
turnoutin the 1997 general election 154
ix
